My Journal - Pathways to Improvement

[NVP]

f and friends were banned from the forum and he has never provided any proof of trades.it was all hindsight trading-mm blew several of his accounts-open your eyes-he was a liar-their forum is as dead as a dodo now.

Just out if interest what forum is that ?

N

 

[NVP]

One major suggestion for F's followers. Try following KT F's template, it will help you avoid over trading. Which is a major problem for all.

Do it for a week, will see the difference, more discipline.

Hey sun sorry if I've missed this but can you direct me to this template......would love,to take a look at it ....

 

[hhiusa]

f and friends were banned from the forum and he has never provided any proof of trades.it was all hindsight trading-mm blew several of his accounts-open your eyes-he was a liar-their forum is as dead as a dodo now.

:smart:

Amen.

You may at some point start making money or you may not.You just have to know when to give up.What im saying is that sir g and f are living a fantasy and there is no evidence or proof that they make a bean.Just dont believe all that people tell you.I have always been honest on here and i am proud to say that i tried trading and actually came out ahead.I packed it in due to stress and the fact that it takes over your life.I do think that cutting losses is the key and riding your winners

:smart:

Amen.

 

[NVP]

You may at some point start making money or you may not.You just have to know when to give up.What im saying is that sir g and f are living a fantasy and there is no evidence or proof that they make a bean.Just dont believe all that people tell you.I have always been honest on here and i am proud to say that i tried trading and actually came out ahead.I packed it in due to stress and the fact that it takes over your life.I do think that cutting losses is the key and riding your winners

of course it takes over your life ............anything does that requires going the extra mile to win and be successful ......

ive had a couple of semi breakdowns in last 10-15 years from trading / work / family pressure (deaths & serious illnesses) ...........therapists got me back together twice plus some rest and relaxation worked .......

my last hit was more minor ....(or I am getting used to them ?)..........we had some family health issues alongside my normal workloads..........that was over xmas 2015 and ive lost 2 stone since then after doctors warnings .............changed my lifestyle more , got fitter and feel a lot better with life again - I can also handle the trading pressure better as well

respect you called it a day .........its not for everyone .....but I cant see me with a golf club in my hand unfortunately ...........trading is my passion

N

 

[sun11]

It's time to answer some post. It was weekend.

1st of all thank you NVP for your support & my kind regards to Splitlink, Swissy & other members too.

Now I already mentioned & so as NVP said it was a holiday time, so they were not active. People need break too.

About my performance & KTs. I use KTs to avoid over trading.
I am following this template from this July.

My performance:

It may be small pips but better win rate & no over trading etc. It's improving.

I can not share my June performance because that time I was not using any template. So I made loss during the last day of brexit. It was wrong decision anyway to trade during such volatile moment (Gamblers day).

But I am happy that I found my way.

I am tired of listening to all those negative comments. From now on, I think it will be wise not to share any trading development / Upgradation on my thread. I will only share my performance report either weekly or monthly.

That's all. I'm done.

Keep Trading....

 

[sun11]

For the original template: Here it is.

 

[Splitlink]

For the original template: Here it is.

Ok, Sun11, my question answered and enough said. Its best to move on to the topic of the thread and sorry if I offended.

 

[sun11]

Ok, Sun11, my question answered and enough said. Its best to move on to the topic of the thread and sorry if I offended.

Hey Splitlink you didn't offended that's for sure....
Thank you for dropping by.

 

[swissy]

For the original template: Here it is.

Thank you for taking the time to reply Sun. I take it you only trade during the red time zones which are the most productive times in Forex ( I'm not a fx trader btw) but I believe the same principles can be applied to almost any instrument and is a great way to stop over trading and also getting on with other things in life as well. Trading can become all consuming - balance is key to perspective.

Keep going and I wish you well.

 

[NickBk]

It's time to answer some post. It was weekend.

1st of all thank you NVP for your support & my kind regards to Splitlink, Swissy & other members too.

Now I already mentioned & so as NVP said it was a holiday time, so they were not active. People need break too.

About my performance & KTs. I use KTs to avoid over trading.
I am following this template from this July.
View attachment 226490
My performance:
View attachment 226492
It may be small pips but better win rate & no over trading etc. It's improving.

I can not share my June performance because that time I was not using any template. So I made loss during the last day of brexit. It was wrong decision anyway to trade during such volatile moment (Gamblers day).

But I am happy that I found my way.

I am tired of listening to all those negative comments. From now on, I think it will be wise not to share any trading development / Upgradation on my thread. I will only share my performance report either weekly or monthly.

That's all. I'm done.

Keep Trading....

Sun I get your frustration but some comments are because you follow F's methods yet have never really turned the corner in your trading.

I note after 2 trading days of this month you finally found your way but what held you back before? What is different this time? Your unanswered comment about a chart looking good in hindsight is noted.

Good luck going forward and I really hope this time it stays good for you.

 

[sun11]

Sun I get your frustration but some comments are because you follow F's methods yet have never really turned the corner in your trading.

I note after 2 trading days of this month you finally found your way but what held you back before? What is different this time? Your unanswered comment about a chart looking good in hindsight is noted.

Good luck going forward and I really hope this time it stays good for you.

Morning NickBk,

Good to hear from you...
Your observing power is good..

Why I didn't use KT properly before. Answer is simple, because I couldn't understand what is its purpose & failed to pick clues. There was no straight answer for it. So I had to figure out myself. What I figure is just my assumption & hopefully it's not that wrong as can I feel the absence of over trading from my current performance. That is the difference. I can remember at the beginning I was making 50-80 trades per day. Now I make trades under 20.

I am in developing stage with a quant analysis for trade management. Plus trying to improve my trade picking & managing power in convenient way...:smart:

Thank you
Regards
S

 

[NickBk]

Morning NickBk,

Good to hear from you...
Your observing power is good..

Why I didn't use KT properly before. Answer is simple, because I couldn't understand what is its purpose & failed to pick clues. There was no straight answer for it. So I had to figure out myself. What I figure is just my assumption & hopefully it's not that wrong as can I feel the absence of over trading from my current performance. That is the difference. I can remember at the beginning I was making 50-80 trades per day. Now I make trades under 20.

I am in developing stage with a quant analysis for trade management. Plus trying to improve my trade picking & managing power in convenient way...:smart:

Thank you
Regards
S

Best of luck to you and I hope you continue to share your journey with us here as well.

 

[sun11]

Anybody thought about using ATR in their trading system...Well I do.!
helps me to avoid choppy seasons plus many more. An excellent volatility measuring tool so far.

 

[sun11]

Quant Job

My quant analysis is completed.



In F's method Target is not fixed but the stops are. I did this modeling with 7 pips hard stop & 25 pips profit target under 15 trades & It clearly shows that if your win rate falls below 50% then you are daydreaming...

Win RPR = Required pip rate per winning trade.

 

[keen246]

My quant analysis is completed.

View attachment 227154

In F's method Target is not fixed but the stops are. I did this modeling with 7 pips hard stop & 25 pips profit target under 15 trades & It clearly shows that if your win rate falls below 50% then you are daydreaming...

Win RPR = Required pip rate per winning trade.

Hi Sun,
Thanks for sharing these results. They seem to be in line with my observations. That is a topic I've been thinking about a lot some months now.
Given the fact that the probability of price moving further(when scalping) drops exponentially, it seems like the achievable sweet spot is around 60-70 Win %.

You mentioned you modeled your algorithm using 25 pips profit. I think it's a bit too much and it doesn't represent an average rather than an exception (again when scalping). If it's not too much work, could you re-run your algo, but using 6 pips SL and 12 pips take profit? Also a higher sample of 20 trades would be more meaningful.
I'm looking forward to seeing the results.

Cheers,
Keen246

 

[NickBk]

My quant analysis is completed.

View attachment 227154

In F's method Target is not fixed but the stops are. I did this modeling with 7 pips hard stop & 25 pips profit target under 15 trades & It clearly shows that if your win rate falls below 50% then you are daydreaming...

Win RPR = Required pip rate per winning trade.

That will always be the case in the example you gave, assuming the moves after entry are random. One thing I found useful from F's ''method'' was the entries, though I got less than satisfactory answers to the the pullbacks on the big winners as claimed. The explanations were not consistent.

Your numbers as requested by Keen will still be unsatisfactory with random moves.

Are you feeling a little disillusioned now with the teaching and note you were unanswered on that question still?

You have to find a way to make it your own method and what works best with your style and mentality.

 

[sun11]

Hi Sun,
Thanks for sharing these results. They seem to be in line with my observations. That is a topic I've been thinking about a lot some months now.
Given the fact that the probability of price moving further(when scalping) drops exponentially, it seems like the achievable sweet spot is around 60-70 Win %.

You mentioned you modeled your algorithm using 25 pips profit. I think it's a bit too much and it doesn't represent an average rather than an exception (again when scalping). If it's not too much work, could you re-run your algo, but using 6 pips SL and 12 pips take profit? Also a higher sample of 20 trades would be more meaningful.
I'm looking forward to seeing the results.

Cheers,
Keen246

Hello Keen,

Good hear from you.

The model which I posted is about getting the required pip per winning trade to achieve the target under certain conditions. So it's a different model.

But the model which you are looking for I already posted about it in past many times in this thread. Your model required winning rate as input.

For 60% win rate with 12 TP & 6 SL under 20 trades. Expected pip profit is 96.
As its 1:2 RR so it will work positive upto 40%, expected pip profit is 24.

Hope it helps.
Regards
S.

 

[sun11]

That will always be the case in the example you gave, assuming the moves after entry are random. One thing I found useful from F's ''method'' was the entries, though I got less than satisfactory answers to the the pullbacks on the big winners as claimed. The explanations were not consistent.

Your numbers as requested by Keen will still be unsatisfactory with random moves.

Are you feeling a little disillusioned now with the teaching and note you were unanswered on that question still?

You have to find a way to make it your own method and what works best with your style and mentality.

Morning Nick,

You caught it right about random moves. I calculated it keeping it in mind. Yes Entries are most important as he mentioned many times. But from my experience picking entries is not good enough if we are unable to maintain or hold it properly for bigger target. ( happens with me all the time )

The reason for doing this stat work is simply to get the an answer for "What if I didn't get 20-50 pips move with sweet point entries". "What if I 80-90% time get 5-7-10 pips move without correction, then will I able to reach my daily target"

Now hope you got my point..

I am trying to find answers by myself...I think that will be the best way...
I developed my own tools for it.

Regards
S.

 

[NickBk]

Morning Nick,

You caught it right about random moves. I calculated it keeping it in mind. Yes Entries are most important as he mentioned many times. But from my experience picking entries is not good enough if we are unable to maintain or hold it properly for bigger target. ( happens with me all the time )

The reason for doing this stat work is simply to get the an answer for "What if I didn't get 20-50 pips move with sweet point entries". "What if I 80-90% time get 5-7-10 pips move without correction, then will I able to reach my daily target"

Now hope you got my point..

I am trying to find answers by myself...I think that will be the best way...
I developed my own tools for it.

Regards
S.

Of course I get your point.

A number of variables there. What is your daily target, over how many hours will you trade, pairs etc. It is hard to define a target until you have more concrete answers to the above.

I always took issue with the fantasy 100+ pip moves that suffered 30+ pip pullbacks along the way. It is sure unacceptable to have 30+ pip pullbacks no matter if you are in profit if your average win in under 10 pips. There was no answer ever to this question.

For me the pullback should be an exit if the criteria is met for a sell, which usually is the case. My own trading I get a high proportion of winners but rarely get the 100+ pip moves. If I have been lucky I get a full position on and then get out partially along the move and can end up with a portion catching the bigger part of a move but capital protection is paramount.

I noted before you had a big portion of 1 or 2 pip winners, which with spreads and comms is not ideal, I am sure you know anyway. I had mentioned before I have a cut off that continues to be effective through checking now a big number of trades. If a trade has not hit its s/l and is not in profit either in 8 minutes I just exit, the checking I have done shows that across a big sample these will not make it and the entry in this case wasn't ideal or the move faltered.

You are on the right track and question every decision and build a set of rules that give you confidence in your decisions.

Good luck.

 

[NickBk]

Hello Keen,

Good hear from you.

The model which I posted is about getting the required pip per winning trade to achieve the target under certain conditions. So it's a different model.

But the model which you are looking for I already posted about it in past many times in this thread. Your model required winning rate as input.

For 60% win rate with 12 TP & 6 SL under 20 trades. Expected pip profit is 96.
As its 1:2 RR so it will work positive upto 40%, expected pip profit is 24.

Hope it helps.
Regards
S.

These numbers do not account for pairs and comms. Many pairs with wider spreads will change these numbers a lot. A 6 pip s/l would be hard to manage effectively on GJ for example or GA. So starting with a -3 makes not taking it into account a waste.