My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but today it made a rather huge leap down which contradicted the tendency of further upside. Drop below level 1.5095 and especially 1.5040 will state the pair’s serious intention to begin the trend’s turn.

In case the pair gets under level 1.5005, it will try to drop below level 1.4955 then. If that happens, the next drop target will be set to level 1.4865 – a key support (the lower bound of “F-F+” weekly uptrend).

I’m not seeing any signals of trend’s continuation so far.

GBP/USD forecast

H4 graph
Having broken the “L-L+” channel the pair went for developing a downtrend. After retreating under level 1.6590 the market has formed a figure of (down)trend’s continuation and headed for testing of level 1.6465 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily sideways trend).

If the pair eventually drops below level 1.6465, it will get to key support 1.6325 (K trendline). Otherwise, if the market goes for correction from the current level, it will find resistance at level 1.6590, from which we should expect repeated testing of 1.6465.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
After rapid upside lately the pair didn’t manage to update level 1.5061, which speaks about a potential of continuation of sideways trend’s forming within the range between levels 1.5050 (support) and 1.4875 (resistance).

Currently the market is closing at a temporary support level 1.4955, but as long as it stays below 1.5050 and above 1.4955 it resides a neutral zone.

Therefore, there are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4955, it will head to a key support 1.4875. Next, in the prospects, if the market will manage to get under that support, it will go to an intermediate support 1.4790, and further to 1.4650 (basically, the market tends to go this way).
2. If the pair rises above resistance level 1.5050, it will get to level 1.5125, and probably even to 1.5200.

Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.4955 with the target at 1.4875.
Buy above 1.5050 with the target at 1.5125.

GBP/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is trading along a wide sideways trend, but on its way it gradually drops down, confidently and constantly, by breaking support levels on and on. As long as the market stays below resistance 1.6665 and above support 1.6330, it resides a neutral zone.

Let’s examine the variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below a key support 1.6330, it will get to support 1.6110.
2. In case the pair rises above resistance 1.6665, it will get to level 1.6820, and maybe even to 1.6900 (I consider this variant to be less probable then the first one).

Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.6330 with the target at 1.6110.
Buy above 1.6665 with the target at 1.6820.

GOLD forecast

H4 graph
The gold strives to leave an H4 uptrend (black dotted trend). The fact that after a rather strong retracement the market couldn’t rise above a minor resistance 1180 speaks in favor of uptrend’s fading and downtrend development attempts.

So, I see a variant to attempt selling below 1160 with the target at 1128. If the gold rises above 1180, that will be a bullish sign, but the uptrend’s continuation cannot be confirmed until the gold rises above 1195.

 

[wwwin1]

Big surprise in NFP and still range bound. Next week should be interesting.

 

[wwwin1]

EURUSD may turn up a little b/c it is grossly oversold, but I don't think it would go over around 1.3770, which would be a good area to short from if it stalls there. Also, the Feds are going to raise rates sooner than people expect. That was lost after Bernanke said it b/c a lot of people were mesmerized by the Greece plan, which really was no plan at all, and what about Spain and Portugal? They will do some quantitative easing which is never good for a currency.

 

[wwwin1]

EU pairs retracement today is not surprising considering that Euro net short positions hit new record at 59,000. But don't go thinking that the $$ bulls are going away any time soon. Italy's probrlems are going to get more and more press and Italy is a much bigger part of the EU. Italy's problems will be worse than Greece's for the EU. Timing the next short entry is the key, and the entry should not be too far off. I don't see this going above 1.3760, and it might crash even before getting to close to that.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is following a sideways trading pattern, partially leaving the “B-B+” daily downtrend. A potential of uptrend development emerged after the Friday payrolls release followed by getting to level 1.3620. The target of that potential uptrend would be found at level 1.3800. We may try to buy from 1.3820 with the target at 1.3800 and stop loss below 1.3560.

Daily graph
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair rose above level 1.5130, which implies breaking of the “B-B+” downtrend. For this reason, in case the pair rises above level 1.5230, we should expect it to reach level 1.5410 (the 4th wave). We may try buying above 1.5130 with the target at 1.5410 and stop loss below 1.5090.

Daily graph
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).

Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).
2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.

Daily forecast
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..

Weekly forecast
The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).

GBP/USD

H4 forecast
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.
Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).

Daily forecast
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).

Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.

Weekly forecast
(See daily graph)
The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.

Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.

Variant #3 is also worth discussing:
If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).

There is also variant #4:
If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast
H1 graph
The pair is trading along a downtrend. The way down to support 1.3555 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend) became clear after the pair got under level 1.3655. Level 1.3580, stated in the previous forecast, provided some support, however this support is temporary and the pair is unlikely to get above level 1.3625.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair continues downtrend from the current level or from resistance 1.3680, with the drop target seen at level 1.3555.
2. Taking into consideration variant #1, if the pair eventually gets to support 1.3555, it may attempt starting an uptrend from there. In such case, if the pair manages to rise above 1.3615, further upside to resistance level 1.3680 will be very probable.

Moreover, if resistance 1.3680 is unable to keep the pair from rising and it gets over level 1.3715, we may expect reaching of 1.3770 - but this variant is least probable.
If the pair manages to retreat below 1.3510 after getting to level 1.3555, it will clear the way to the drop target at level 1.3450 (several last weeks’ low).

Support:
1.3580 and 1.3555 (key one)

Resistance:
1.3625 and 1.3680 (key one)



GBP/USD forecast
H1 graph
The pair is trading within the sideways trend (striving to transform into downtrend), having rebounded from support 1.5235. The will be staying in a neutral zone while it is located below level 1.5315 and above 1.5210.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. It consists of three waves. In case the pair drops below level 1.5210, a potential of drop to level 1.5160 (“a” trendline - the lower bound of H4 uptrend) will emerge. The second stage will begin with rebound from 1.5160. A correction to resistance level 1.5235 may take place right after that, after which the downtrend will be resumed. If then the pair gets down below level 1.5160, it will get to support 1.5070 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). If during Stage Two level 1.5235 fails keeping the pair from rising and the market gets above level 1.5310, further upside to level 1.5410 will become possible.

2/4. In case the pair rises above level 1.5315 (“z” trendline), it may continue rising to level 1.5410.

Support
1.5235 (intermediate), 1.5160 (strong) and 1.5070 (key)

Resistance
1.5315 (intermediate) and 1.5410 (key)




GOLD forecast
H1 graph
The gold is trading in the sideways trend between levels 1128 (stated in the previous forecast) and 1118. In general, the markets direction is bearish, that is we may expect the gold to rebound from current level with the drop target seen at support 1118. Next, a rebound back to 1123 may happen, after which dropping attempts will go on. And in case the gold drops below level 1118, it will get to support 1112.70 or a little lower to 1109.50.

Rising above 1128 has poor chance, but if it eventually happens, the market still won’t be able to go any higher than resistance cloud around 1131.75 - 1135.

Development of the current picture implies forming of a “double top” trend-turning figure.

Support:
1118, 1112.70 (strong) and 1109.50 (key)

Resistance:
1128 (strong) and 1131 - 1135 (key)

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD
Forecast for the next week, from March 22 to 26. H4 graph (dated 03/22/10)
The pair is trading along a downtrend. By getting under level 1.3650 the pair gained an opportunity to drop to level 1.3550 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). At the moment the market is striving to continue the downtrend and eventually get under key level 1.3500.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.3500 (with or without rebound from level 1.3580, which is highly populated with trendlines), the pair will get next drop target at level 1.3285. Resistance 1.3580 is a strong level, and the pair is unlikely to rise above it.

2. Alternative variant. If the pair loses its downside momentum, fails holding ground below 1.3500 and rises above 1.3600, it will get an opportunity to reach resistance level 1.3680. This level is a strong resistance and so we should expect downtrend’s continuation after the pair gets to it. This is due to the fact that we are still in the “F-F+” weekly downtrend, which has the drop target at level 1.2870.

Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.
Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.

Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD
Forecast for this week, 05-09. H4 graph

The pair is trading along an uptrend; however, the “S” trendline’s break and also the picture of the daily trend, where the market is within a downtrend, speak in favor of downtrend development with the drop target seen at level 1.3190 (“F” trendline).

After the pair gets under level 1.3430, the downside momentum will grow stronger. Level 1.3530 is the resistance for now; rising above this level will be a signal of downtrend cancellation. If so, next resistance will be found at level 1.3630, and then the key resistance at 1.3710. But still, we should not count on uptrend development, because there is a large cloud of resistance levels above 1.3530 and up to 1.3710. If the pair eventually rises above 1.3740, the “forecast for the next month” takes effect.

 

[strategist]

EUR/USD forecast
Forecast for this week, 26-30. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the downtrend (black dotted) after rebounding from support level 1.3200, which speaks about development of an uptrend at the moment. As long as the pair is trading above support level 1.3290, the upside target is seen at resistance cloud 1.3457 – 1.3490. Development of the next downtrend may be expected to begin from that cloud, but it won’t be confident until the pair goes under level 1.3383. In such case it will get to support 1.3300, and if it continues to go down, it will eventually find itself at support 1.3220.

Forecast for this month, April - May. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the “B-B+” correctional uptrend, which speaks about development of a downtrend at the moment with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 – the fifth wave’s target.

Level 1.3200 offered a fair support for the pair and now we may expect a slight correction towards resistance level 1.3490, from where the downtrend development will be resumed. A more confident downtrend will begin after the pair goes under levels 1.3270 and 1.3200, after that it will head to intermediate support 1.3090 (“F” trendline) and then to target level 1.2870.

Uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above resistance 1.3584 (leaves the “F-F+” channel), after which it will head to intermediate resistance 1.3770, and if it gets over it the next upside target will be set to level 1.3960.

GBP/USD forecast
Forecast for this week, 19-23. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)
After leaving the “B-B+” uptrend (going under level 1.5333) the pair is now trading along the downtrend having the drop targets seen at level 1.5137 (first) and 1.4940 (second). Level 1.5137 may become a strong support, and so when the market will retrace from it the pair will get a good chance to form the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. If the pair takes this chance, the shoulder formation is supposed to be finished around resistance levels 1.5333–1.5382, from where the pair will continue downtrend development with the drop target set to level 1.4940 (1.4815).

Developing of an uptrend is possible only in case the pair rises above level 1.5450. If so, the pair’s upside target will be set to level 1.5800.

Forecast for this month, April. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair is trading along the “N-N+” correctional uptrend of the 4th wave. The pair has reached a strong resistance level 1.5493, and we can see at H4 graph that a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure (namely its right shoulder) is being formed now, which points at possibility of downtrend development.

In case the pair goes under level 1.5205 the market’s downside momentum will be amplified, leading to drop at level 1.5000 (key support). If the pair also goes below 1.5000, the current 4th correctional wave will be completed and the pair’s drop target will be set to level 1.4355.

An uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above level 1.5575 and then gets to key resistance level 1.5870 (the higher bound of weekly downtrend). If the upside continues above level1.5870, the pair will get to intermediate resistance 1.6150, and in case of further rising the upside target will be set to resistance level 1.6500.

 

[strategist]

EURUSD forecast

Forecast for the week, 05/17 – 05/21
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1865. Level 1.2200 is serving as an intermediate resistance. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.2500.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2500, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.2800. If the market moves on above that level, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.2980, and then at major resistance 1.3200.

Monthly forecast, May – June
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1655. Intermediate supports are seen at levels 1.2200 and 1.1865. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above level 1.2800.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2800, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.3100. If the market moves on above level 1.3100, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.3660. If the market gets over that target, it will reach resistance 1.4345.

Quarterly forecast, May – July
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen at level 1.1655. If the market goes below that level, it will reach level 1.000.

An uptrend may be started upon the pair’s rising above level 1.3100. Then the market will go up to resistance level 1.4630 (“Q” trendline).

Yearly forecast, 2010 – 2011.
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen around 0.9890 – 1.0200. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.3100. Intermediate resistances are currently seen at levels 1.1655 and 1.000.

The figure will be cancelled and an uptrend will be started in case the pair rises above 1.3100. Then the upside target will be set at resistance level 1.4630.

 

[pssonice]

a lot of bad coloured painting, u woul like to tell us, that ...

there is a probability that everathing and nothing is possible !
"EURUSD 05/17-05/21 if ... then ... else
1.1865
1.2200
1.2500
1.2500
1.2800
1.2980
1.3200
do u think that this is your best forecast right now, for this week or for infinity ?

 

[Johnson12]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is johnson from india. any one help me to provide daily signals by mail: [email protected]

 

[MDunleavy]

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is undergoing a correction. Breakout below the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening — as would a Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line. Recovery above the descending trendline, however, would suggest another test of 89.[incrediblecharts.com]
But I think so.See figure.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size1 50X3 or(4.71%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 210 Month ~ 6377 Day
Database 912 records 84.34 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-07-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

121.50|~15O|____________________________________+___________________________|-0.82%|71.85%
120.00|~3OO|________________________________x___x_+_________________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.50|~45O|____________________________x___x_o_x_o_+_______________________|1.67%|67.61%
117.00|~6OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________|2.91%|65.49%
115.50|~75O|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________________|4.16%|63.37%
114.00|~9OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_________________|5.4%|61.24%
112.5|~1O5O|____________________________x_o_x_o___o_________+_______________|6.65%|59.12%
111.0|~12OO|________________________x___x_o_x_____o___________+_____________|7.89%|57%
109.5|~135O|________________________x_o_x_o_______o_____________+___________|9.14%|54.88%
108.0|~15OO|________________________x_o_x_________o_______________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.5|~165O|________________________x_o___________o_________________+_______|11.63%|50.64%
105.0|~18OO|________________________x_____________o___________________+_____|12.87%|48.51%
103.5|~195O|____________________x___x_____________o_____________________+___|14.12%|46.39%
102.0|~21OO|________________x___x_o_x_____________o_______________________+_|15.36%|44.27%
100.5|~225O|____________x___x_o_x_o_x_____________o_________________________|16.6%|42.15%
99.00|~24OO|____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________+_o_x_______________________|17.85%|40.03%
97.50|~255O|____________x_o_x_o_x_o___________+___o_x_o_____________________|19.09%|37.91%
96.00|~27OO|____x_______x_o___o_x___________+_____o_x_o_____________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.50|~285O|x___x_o_____x_____o_x_________+_______o_x_o_____________________|21.58%|33.66%
93.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_____x_____o_________+_________o___o_____________________|22.83%|31.54%
91.50|~315O|__o_x_o_____x_____________+_______________o_x___x_______________|24.07%|29.42%
90.00|~33OO|__o_x_o_x___x___________+_________________o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.50|~345O|__o___o_x_o_x_________+___________________o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___|26.56%|25.18%
87.00|~36OO|______o_x_o_x_______+_____________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_|27.81%|23.06%
85.50|~375O|______o___o_x_____+_______________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.05%|20.93%
84.00|~39OO|__________o_x___+_____________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.50|~4O5O|__________o_x_+_______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|31.54%|16.69%
81.00|~42OO|__________o_+_________________________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.79%|14.57%
79.50|~435O|__________+_______________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|34.03%|12.45%
78.00|~45OO|__________________________________________________o_x_o___o_x___|35.28%|10.33%
76.50|~465O|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_x_+_|36.52%|8.2%
75.00|~48OO|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_+___|37.76%|6.08%
73.50|~495O|__________________________________________________o_x_____+_____|39.01%|3.96%
72.00|~51OO|__________________________________________________o_____________|40.25%|1.84%
70.50|~525O|________________________________________________________________|41.5%|-0.28%
Column||||||2_4_5_7_3_6_1_3_4_6_7_4_9_3_8_6_7_5_5_1_4_9_4_7_7_1_1_6_7_9_9_3_|
Count|||||||____________3_________________________8___________3_O___________|
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

 

[MDunleavy]

The EUR penetrated resistance at 1.2500 and the descending trend line. It is too early to call this a reversal, but the primary down trend is weakening. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 1.2500. Failure of the rising trend line would warn of a primary down swing with a target of parity - confirmed if support at 1.1900 is broken. Respect of support would suggest a reversal, but confirmation would only come from a higher trough followed by a new high.

"P&F EURUSD240 Box Size 100X3 or(2.22%) HI/LO
Data 1.5144 - 1.1876 ~ 8 Month ~ 247.17 Day
Database 1050 records 1.29296 (Last Close)
2009-11-11 16~00
2010-07-16 20~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.5100|~1OO||____x_+___________________|0.29%|27.15%
1.5000|~2OO||x_o_x_o_+_________________|0.95%|26.31%
1.4900|~3OO||x_o_x_o___+_______________|1.61%|25.46%
1.4800|~4OO||______o_____+_____________|2.27%|24.62%
1.4700|~5OO||______o_______+___________|2.93%|23.78%
1.4600|~6OO||______o_________+_________|3.59%|22.94%
1.4500|~7OO||______o___________+_______|4.25%|22.09%
1.4400|~8OO||______o_____________+_____|4.91%|21.25%
1.4300|~9OO||______o_______________+___|5.57%|20.41%
1.4200|~1OOO|______o_________________+_|6.23%|19.57%
1.4100|~11OO|______o___________________|6.89%|18.73%
1.4000|~12OO|______o___________________|7.55%|17.88%
1.3900|~13OO|______o___________________|8.21%|17.04%
1.3800|~14OO|______o_x_________________|8.87%|16.2%
1.3700|~15OO|______o_x_o_______________|9.54%|15.36%
1.3600|~16OO|______o_x_o_x_____________|10.2%|14.52%
1.3500|~17OO|______o___o_x_o___________|10.86%|13.67%
1.3400|~18OO|__________o_x_o___________|11.52%|12.83%
1.3300|~19OO|__________o___o___________|12.18%|11.99%
1.3200|~2OOO|______________o___________|12.84%|11.15%
1.3100|~21OO|______________o___________|13.5%|10.31%
1.3000|~22OO|______________o_x_______x_|14.16%|9.46%
1.2900|~23OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|14.82%|8.62%
1.2800|~24OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|15.48%|7.78%
1.2700|~25OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|16.14%|6.94%
1.2600|~26OO|______________o___o_x___x_|16.8%|6.1%
1.2500|~27OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|17.46%|5.25%
1.2400|~28OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|18.12%|4.41%
1.2300|~29OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|18.78%|3.57%
1.2200|~3OOO|__________________o___o_x_|19.44%|2.73%
1.2100|~31OO|______________________o_x_|20.1%|1.89%
1.2000|~32OO|______________________o_x_|20.76%|1.04%
1.1900|~33OO|______________________o_+_|21.42%|0.2%
1.1800|~34OO|______________________+___|22.08%|-0.64%
Column|||||||2_2_3_1_3_5_3_1_4_8_4_7_1_|
Count||||||||______6_______O_________1_|
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

 

[MDunleavy]

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0452 but closed higher at 1.0524. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new minor bullish channel indicating upside correction phase but the major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.0630. Consistent move above that area and violation to the major bearish channel could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario testing 1.0750. On the downside we need a break below 1.0399 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.0220.The text is written by ActionForex.But I think that will break down.

"P&F USDCHF1 Box Size 3X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
Data 1.0542 - 1.0454 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.73 Day
Database 1050 records 1.05332 (Last Close)
2010-07-20 14~07
2010-07-21 07~39 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.0542|~3||||__+___________________________________________+_|0%|0.84%
1.0539|~6||||__x_+_________________________________________x_|0.03%|0.81%
1.0536|~9||||__x_o_+_______________________________________x_|0.06%|0.78%
1.0533|~12|||__x_o___+_________________________________+___x_|0.09%|0.76%
1.0530|~15|||__x_o_____+___________________x___x_______x_+_x_|0.11%|0.73%
1.0527|~18|||__x_o_x_____+_________________x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_|0.14%|0.7%
1.0524|~21|||____o_x_o_____+_______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|0.17%|0.67%
1.0521|~24|||____o_x_o_______+_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___|0.2%|0.64%
1.0518|~27|||____o_x_o_________+___________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|0.23%|0.61%
1.0515|~3O|||____o_x_o___________+_________x_o___o_x_________|0.26%|0.58%
1.0512|~33|||____o_x_o_____________+___x___x_____o_x_________|0.28%|0.55%
1.0509|~36|||____o_x_o_______________+_x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.31%|0.53%
1.0506|~39|||____o___o_________________x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.34%|0.5%
1.0503|~42|||________o_x_______________x_o_x_____o_x_________|0.37%|0.47%
1.0500|~45|||________o_x_o_____________x_o_______o_________+_|0.4%|0.44%
1.0497|~48|||________o_x_o_____________x_________________+___|0.43%|0.41%
1.0494|~51|||________o_x_o_____________x_______________+_____|0.46%|0.38%
1.0491|~54|||________o_x_o_____________x_____________+_______|0.48%|0.35%
1.0488|~57|||________o_x_o_____________x___________+_________|0.51%|0.33%
1.0485|~6O|||________o___o_____________x_________+___________|0.54%|0.3%
1.0482|~63|||____________o_x___x___x___x_______+_____________|0.57%|0.27%
1.0479|~66|||____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____+_______________|0.6%|0.24%
1.0476|~69|||____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___+_________________|0.63%|0.21%
1.0473|~72|||____________o_x_o_x_o___o___+___________________|0.65%|0.18%
1.0470|~75|||____________o_x_o_________+_____________________|0.68%|0.15%
1.0467|~78|||____________o_x_________+_______________________|0.71%|0.12%
1.0464|~81|||____________o_x_______+_________________________|0.74%|0.1%
1.0461|~84|||____________o_x_____+___________________________|0.77%|0.07%
1.0458|~87|||____________o_x___+_____________________________|0.8%|0.04%
1.0455|~9O|||____________o_x_+_______________________________|0.83%|0.01%
1.0452|~93|||____________o_+_________________________________|0.85%|-0.02%
|||||||~96|||____________+___________________________________|100%|-100%
Column|~99|||O_5_1_7_1_6_1_1_4_4_3_3_3_1_4_1_5_5_1_9_3_4_3_6_|
Count||~1O2||____1___4___7_O___________3___O_____O___________|
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

 

[MDunleavy]

Gold' fall from 1266.5 resumes by taking out 1175.1 and reaches as slow as 1156.9 so far. Short term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1203.9 resistance holds and we'd expect deeper decline to 1124.3 support next.

"P&F GOLD30 Box Size $6X3 or(1.49%) HI/LO
Data 1265.02 - 1157.88 ~ 2 Month ~ 62.92 Day
Database 2056 records 1161.33 (Last Close)
2010-05-26 16~00
2010-07-28 14~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1260.00|~6$||__________________x_+_____________|0.4%|8.82%
1254.00|~12$|__________x_o_x_o___o_+___________|0.87%|8.3%
1248.00|~18$|______x___x_o_x_____o___+_________|1.35%|7.78%
1242.00|~24$|______x_o_x_o_x_____o_____+_______|1.82%|7.27%
1236.00|~3O$|______x_o_x_o_x___+_o_______+_____|2.29%|6.75%
1230.00|~36$|______x_o_x_o___+___o_________+___|2.77%|6.23%
1224.00|~42$|__x___x_o_x___+_____o___________+_|3.24%|5.71%
1218.00|~48$|o_x_o_x_o___+_______o_____________|3.72%|5.19%
1212.00|~54$|o_x_o_x___+_________o_____x_______|4.19%|4.67%
1206.00|~6O$|o___o_x_+___________o_x___x_o_____|4.67%|4.16%
1200.00|~66$|____o_+_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___|5.14%|3.64%
1194.00|~72$|____+_______________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|5.61%|3.12%
1188.00|~78$|____________________o___o___o_x_o_|6.09%|2.6%
1182.00|~84$|____________________________o_x_o_|6.56%|2.08%
1176.00|~9O$|____________________________o_+_o_|7.04%|1.56%
1170.00|~96$|____________________________+___o_|7.51%|1.05%
1164.0|~1O2$|________________________________oV|7.99%|0.53%
1158.0|~1O8$|________________________________oV|8.46%|0.01%
1152.0|~114$|________________________________+V|8.93%|-0.51%
Column|||||||3_3_4_8_5_6_5_4_1_1_1_3_3_4_6_4_7V|
Count||||||||____________________2____________V|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

 

[MDunleavy]

As expected, Cable moved up in the Asian and the European sessions today to touch a high of 1.5968. The pair honoured the Resistance at 1.5970 (61.8% retracement of the fall from 1.7042 (Aug-09) to 1.4227 (May-09)) and is currently trading lower. We may see the markets go down towards 1.5900-1.5700, before another rally beyond 1.60 figure in the coming days.

"P&F GBPUSD1 Box Size 5X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
Data 1.5965 - 1.5862 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.53 Day
Database 768 records 1.59201 (Last Close)
2010-08-03 02~34
2010-08-03 15~24 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.5965|~5||||______________________________|0%|0.65%
1.5960|~1O|||______________x___x_______+___|0.03%|0.62%
1.5955|~15|||__________x___x_o_x_o_____x_+_|0.06%|0.59%
1.5950|~2O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.09%|0.55%
1.5945|~25|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.13%|0.52%
1.5940|~3O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_|0.16%|0.49%
1.5935|~35|||__________x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.19%|0.46%
1.5930|~4O|||__________x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.22%|0.43%
1.5925|~45|||______x___x_____o_x_o___o___o_|0.25%|0.4%
1.5920|~5O|||______x_o_x_____o_x_______+_o_|0.28%|0.37%
1.5915|~55|||______x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_|0.31%|0.33%
1.5910|~6O|||______x_o_x_____o_x___+_____+_|0.34%|0.3%
1.5905|~65|||______x_o_x_____o_x_+_________|0.38%|0.27%
1.5900|~7O|||______x_o_x_____o_+___________|0.41%|0.24%
1.5895|~75|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.44%|0.21%
1.5890|~8O|||______x_______+_______________|0.47%|0.18%
1.5885|~85|||o_____x_____+_________________|0.5%|0.15%
1.5880|~9O|||o_x___x___+___________________|0.53%|0.11%
1.5875|~95|||o_x_o_x_+_____________________|0.56%|0.08%
1.5870|~1OO||o_x_o_x_______________________|0.6%|0.05%
1.5865|~1O5||o_x_o_________________________|0.63%|0.02%
1.5860|~11O||o_+___________________________|0.66%|-0.01%
Column|~115||6_4_3_1_6_1_4_5_1_1_7_3_3_6_8_|
Count|~12O|||______2___2_____2_2___________|
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

 

[strategist]

EURUSD
Forecast of the week, 08/02–08/06
The pair is trading along an uptrend in the 5th wave of the “B-B+” downtrend, having the upside target seen at 1.3305. Moving up to resistance level 1.3425 is possible as well. As soon as the market reaches either of those levels we may expect a correction to start, which will lead to development of a downtrend in case the pair retreats below level 1.3180. After that the market will head towards key support level 1.2745.

http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1280874712_eurusd-h4.gif


Forecast monthly, August
The pair is trading within the “C-C+” uptrend in the 5th wave, having the upside target seen at resistance cloud around levels 1.3425 and 1.3620. However, this trend may be completed at level 1.3305 as well. Anyway, as soon as the market reaches either stated level, a correction is supposed to start, which will cause the uptrend to continue (which is least probable) or a downtrend to begin development in case the pair drops below level 1.3180. After that the market will head to key support level 1.2770.

Forecast quarterly, August–October
After the pair rose above level 1.2760 (quit from the “F-F+” downtrend), it is now trading along an uptrend (the “a” wave) having the upside target seen at resistance cloud around 1.3425–1.3620. We may expect the “b” downside correctional wave to begin from those levels with the target set at key support levels 1.2760–1.2600. After the pair gets to those levels, there will be 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If levels stated grant a decent support, the “c” upside wave will start with the target set at resistance level 1.4450.
2. If the pair drops below level 1.2600, a downtrend will start having the downside target seen at level 1.1650.
* To get an idea about turning levels for the waves mentioned, see monthly and weekly forecasts.