Using that analogy, never mind being thrown a lifeline, he's been given enough
info to build his own boat.
His problem if he can't take it in or understand it.
As for the coin toss remark, never ceases to amaze me how people can dismiss
a very simple learning aid that can also form part of prop trader training,
and even be a viable method in its own right.
I'd swear people actually buy into all this analysis crap, despite the fact that
the same people also usually have strike rates of 40-60%, or returns lower than 1 risk (hence analysis is shown not to work all the time, or dare I say even be random...).
Any form of analysis is still just a random reason for entry, nothing more.
No matter how much you kid yourself, that is the case.
Various forms of anaylsis can give you greater accuracy or higher probability,
NOTHING will ever produce a successful profitable trade every time though will it.
So whats the difference between that and a random coin toss?
Hi LV, while I agree that most of the time analysis is BS, but if it is explained clearly with reason as why something should happen, and the end result is that it does happen (80% + of the time) would you still have the same stance. Or will you accept that some people can do certain things that others cannot, and probably never will?
For example I have just posted this on an ES thread. Quite clearly with reason, and an entry area (far from random, but thats another issue, as it may appear random to most). I have enough data to tell me this has an 80% + chance of playing out. (Should I get my fill prior)
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It really depends on who are the longer term players you are referring to?
Its Independence Day, hence the lower volumes about, which is good for those in the know, for the reason they know
. But this move was planned a while ago, with the knowledge of the above and the plan of off loading on a high for when the non-farms get released.
So
whatever the result of the non farms, we will be trading above the 1358 level on Sept ES into and off the release.
So any dip prior (below 1360 level) is a high probability buy play to the upside. Could be at least 15-20 full ES points on the cards for this one.
Lets see it we get the price.
Just a waiting game now
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I have no objection to anyone having their own opinion, as long as it is based on fact, and not unproven theories, which people have not had the time or intention to be "bothered to dig deeper".
I totally agree with your points regarding a coin toss being helpful to developing a trader's methodology, but none of it means anything without understanding the whole market concept from A to Z, and then carrying on beyond that point as one progresses. This is obviously only relevant to a few, but it is relevant never the less.
Bottom line; it depends on what level of trading you aspire to be at, and working out how you are going to get there.
Thanks
