May '04 Forex

[Redben]

Nice chart FC - I've been struggling to spot patterns on Euro and cable since the news hit on Friday - you could be onto something there.

7-10 breakout suggesting the high will be hit first, so that will trigger a buy. Might leave it for today... Never like buying on the round numbers, would rather see them break before entering.

Ben

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, the fallback from 1.7700 doesnt look too convincing at all.

Euro 7-10am looks like triggering a long in the near future. if cable breaks 1.7700 with any conviction then i think we are going up today, contrary to earlier opinion. i hate it when news buggers charts up lol.

still, trade what we see, not what we think, and what i see is up up and away at the moment.

hmm

time to tighten the stops..

 

[Redben]

Mmm, market just rose enough to get me long on the Euro before falling - what a kick in the knackers. Not been the best of weeks so far. Not really got an overall opinion on today now - perhaps still a long bias.

Ben

 

[TheBramble]

Ditto. Nice little spike upto 1902/06 took me in Long as well. Mangaed to get out again quite sharpish.

The thing is, I had an automated order system in place which I've only been using for a couple of days. Had I been using my manual entry method, it wouldn't have gone on.

We live and learn.

 

[FetteredChinos]

im fancying a short on cable from these levels. lots of resistance overhead. now if we can just pierce 1.7700 convincingly on the way down....

like you ben i got stopped out on a Euro Long. thats about 4 losses in a row on the 7-10am method. hmm..

FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

right, gone short 1.7710, big baddass wide stops at 1.7770 , this beggars goin' down.

famous last words....

FC

 

[Goober]

TB

What system are you trading?

Ditto. Nice little spike upto 1902/06 took me in Long as well. Mangaed to get out again quite sharpish.

The thing is, I had an automated order system in place which I've only been using for a couple of days. Had I been using my manual entry method, it wouldn't have gone on.

We live and learn.

 

[TheBramble]

What system are you trading?

I calculate Pivot Points on a rolling 3-hours basis and when there is 'a confirmed' (doh!) breakout through Support or Resistance, I go Short or Long respectively.

'Confirmation' being normally a test and re-test using a 5 min close - not just a single spike!!!!

 

[Goober]

TB

I like the idea of 3 hour rolling pivots. If I understood you earlier, I assume that you calculate your levels and place stop entries on breakout of those levels - am I correct? If I am, theoretically, you only need to look at he market every 3 hours. My only reservation relates to the effectiveness of pivots in Forex. Do you find they pinpoint support/resistance levels?

I calculate Pivot Points on a rolling 3-hours basis and when there is 'a confirmed' (doh!) breakout through Support or Resistance, I go Short or Long respectively.

'Confirmation' being normally a test and re-test using a 5 min close - not just a single spike!!!!

 

[FetteredChinos]

TB

I like the idea of 3 hour rolling pivots. If I understood you earlier, I assume that you calculate your levels and place stop entries on breakout of those levels - am I correct? If I am, theoretically, you only need to look at he market every 3 hours. My only reservation relates to the effectiveness of pivots in Forex. Do you find they pinpoint support/resistance levels?

surely if they are "ROLLING" pivots, they need to be recalculated every hour n'est-ce pas?

still, its better than following the markets every minute of the day, and since they are mathematical, they can be programmed into an autotrading software.

let us know how you get on TB. have you been experimenting for long?


im still short on cable. tedious at the moment.....

 

[neil]

right, gone short 1.7710, big baddass wide stops at 1.7770 , this beggars goin' down.

famous last words....

FC

Euro has not closed o/s of 7 - 10am channel, so no trade yet on euro ( S'pose I'm doing something wrong if some of you have aborted longs on euro?)

 

[TheBramble]

Euro has not closed o/s of 7 - 10am channel, so no trade yet on euro ( S'pose I'm doing something wrong if some of you have aborted longs on euro?)

Neil, low of the 7-10 EUR/USD was 1850. it closed at 1848 at 11:20.

 

[FetteredChinos]

neil, i dont think ben or myself wait for a close outside the range. trades are triggered as and when the price hits the limits on a tick by tick basis. i havent looked into backtesting/coding waiting for a close. that might be worth an idea, and yet another thing i need to do when i get a moment.

thanks for the ideas though

FC

 

[Goober]

FC

Nobody likes a wisea**e! :cheesy:

Yup - you're quite right - hence TB's distinct use of the word "rolling".

surely if they are "ROLLING" pivots, they need to be recalculated every hour n'est-ce pas?

still, its better than following the markets every minute of the day, and since they are mathematical, they can be programmed into an autotrading software.

let us know how you get on TB. have you been experimenting for long?


im still short on cable. tedious at the moment.....

 

[TheBramble]

I like the idea of 3 hour rolling pivots. If I understood you earlier, I assume that you calculate your levels and place stop entries on breakout of those levels - am I correct? If I am, theoretically, you only need to look at he market every 3 hours. My only reservation relates to the effectiveness of pivots in Forex. Do you find they pinpoint support/resistance levels?

Not quite. As FC says, I recalc hourly on each hourly close. I look at the distance between the Pivot Point, the Support and the Resistance (which is 21 and 26 respectively as I write). This distance is my SL. It's currently trading at level R1 - right on first major resistance. If it breaks down below, retests twice and stays below, I'll go short. It's already had 2 tests this morning and come back up above each time.

EDIT:- I don't recalc on an hourly basis at all. Talking out of my hat. The rolling 3-hour calc is done on a 5-min chart.

 

[Welshmal]

I'm short on the Euro at 11850 and looking for it to drop to around 11810 today.

Managed to hit my s loss on Usd/CHF by selling at 12952 when on reflection should have bought.

 

[TheBramble]

let us know how you get on TB. have you been experimenting for long?

With this system for 3 days. WAY too short to report any useful results, but it is based on a system I've been using successfully outside of FX for a while now. So more than a mere whim.

 

[Redben]

neil, i dont think ben or myself wait for a close outside the range. trades are triggered as and when the price hits the limits on a tick by tick basis. i havent looked into backtesting/coding waiting for a close. that might be worth an idea, and yet another thing i need to do when i get a moment.

thanks for the ideas though

FC

Yep, that's right - as soon as the target is hit after the breakout period then the trade is put on.

Keeps it simple, but going through a rough patch at the moment.

Ben

 

[FetteredChinos]

sounds good TB.

so many ideas flying around this board at the moment, its making my head hurt. or it may be the fact ive had about 7 large cups of coffee already today. fingers are starting to fidget. id be pretty fast if i was scalping for 5 points here and there lol. fingers of fury.....

 

[FetteredChinos]

knackers, stopped out.

must have been favourable US data. looking for longs on a retrace now..hmm

FC