Waterfield
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Dosy Sod. Now what will you do on Sunday afternoon?
market direction
- Thread starter N Rothschild
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N Rothschild
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N Rothschild
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calling a short ES aswell. this will probably come back to bite me as most es shorts do in this day and age. just make sure you hedge your positions
You mean hedging the ES short with a call option?
Whats the point in hedging though? You reduce the amount you lose if the market goes the wrong way, and reduce the amount you make if you were right...why not just trade a smaller position instead?
Sorry for newb question, lol.
N Rothschild
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i dont get involed in gold, vile market! all i can say is one day, wether that be soon or in the distant future is that the paper gold market will colapse. i.e futures. not talking price of real gold, but paper gold will crumble
megamuel
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Interesting... I dont actually trade them although I do buy small silver and palladium bullion as long term savings/investments. Palladium hase gone up over 3 times since Nov 08 and is accelerating, just wish I'd have bought more! How did you reach your conclusion on gold?
you can look at the cot reports since 1980s and see what NR is talking about (i think, although he probably has his own reasons), the monthly net positions are unusual...since 2000 i think the market has only been net short once...i don't think this is normal at least in comparison to other markets, esp when you consider the historical circumstances and some peoples strange adherence to it as a store of value...gold is a mirror.
N Rothschild
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paladium is not a precious metal than can be used as a currencey like silver/gold..wudnt be putting your savings into it!
N Rothschild
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fiatmoney
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Looks like the floodgates are now open for the rest of the "PIGS". Who will be next Portugal or Spain??? or dare I say it even Ireland...
N Rothschild
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the euro/eu is not long for this world..just wish they would hurry up about it
new_trader
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I owned Palladium via a Physical ETF and sold it all after almost doubling my money, I wish I held onto it. Although it is not used in/as currency, it is in the ‘Platinum’ group of metals and is used in jewellery and has wide range of industrial uses as well, namely catalytic converters.
N Rothschild
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monster 135 point gap up in euro
bet all those TA traders just blew half there accounts if they were holding over the weekend
bet all those TA traders just blew half there accounts if they were holding over the weekend
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megamuel
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Funnily enough, thats the very reason I didn't go with the ETF. I knew if I got a bit of profit I'd get excited and bank it! At least with the physical bullion its a bit more hassle to sell it so it encourages me to save. Plus it is nice to look at
Anyway, I plan on holding this stuff for at least 10 years, I'm treating it as my own little pension portfolio sort of thing, along with some silver and shares that I'm buying in the meantime while I am trying to teach myself to trade. Another thing I like about palladium is that it can absorb up to 900 times its volume in hydrogen.... I'm thinking that might be usefull for hydrogen fuel cells if they take off???Sam.
rathcoole_exile
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unless one was a follower of, let's say, Captain Currency's 3 Ducks or similar?
N Rothschild
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buy some calls in copper to hedge it?
I dont really understand the point in 'hedging'. You make your potential loss smaller as you get paid for your option trade if you get it wrong, but then you make less on the trade if it wins as you lose the money you paid for the option. Why not just either cut your losses, ot just trade smaller?
Obviulsly im missing something. Could you enlighten me and any other noobs reading?
I dont really understand the point in 'hedging'. You make your potential loss smaller as you get paid for your option trade if you get it wrong, but then you make less on the trade if it wins as you lose the money you paid for the option. Why not just either cut your losses, ot just trade smaller?
Obviulsly im missing something. Could you enlighten me and any other noobs reading?
N Rothschild
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the reason for hedging especialy in comodities is that alot of the futures markets are very vunreble to stop runs! why let your self be a victim of a stop run? also if you can adjust your risk mid trade.
also these markets are vulnerable to big gaps, some of these markets are capable of gaping onto the limit and blitzing your account
also these markets are vulnerable to big gaps, some of these markets are capable of gaping onto the limit and blitzing your account
N Rothschild
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lets take this nasty little trade (which i was in)
when the USDA crop report came out pre market (while the electronic session was closed) the market opened down a few ticks off the limit, then hit the limit in a few seconds. a limit down is 30 cenc with 4 ticks per cent, so 120 tick gap, at 12 bucks or so per contract, MINIMUM loss on one contract would have been $1500 and i was holding a hell of alot more than one contract!
When the market was on the limited there was over 100,000 contracts on the offer, there was no chance anyone was getting out! when the market opened again next day it gapped down again! nightmare scenario, i lost 6 figures. this is why you hedge
im deadly serious when i say alot of people would have been working at mcdonalds come monday next week.
this isnt spread betting, this is the real market and if your margin ran out, well tough **** you cant get out..you will end up OWING the brokerage firm 20-30-40 grand when you do get your offer lifted
i forget the exact figure but about 300 million was blitzed that day in the market. so tell me again that its not worth hedging coz it costs you some of your profit
when the USDA crop report came out pre market (while the electronic session was closed) the market opened down a few ticks off the limit, then hit the limit in a few seconds. a limit down is 30 cenc with 4 ticks per cent, so 120 tick gap, at 12 bucks or so per contract, MINIMUM loss on one contract would have been $1500 and i was holding a hell of alot more than one contract!
When the market was on the limited there was over 100,000 contracts on the offer, there was no chance anyone was getting out! when the market opened again next day it gapped down again! nightmare scenario, i lost 6 figures. this is why you hedge
im deadly serious when i say alot of people would have been working at mcdonalds come monday next week.
this isnt spread betting, this is the real market and if your margin ran out, well tough **** you cant get out..you will end up OWING the brokerage firm 20-30-40 grand when you do get your offer lifted
i forget the exact figure but about 300 million was blitzed that day in the market. so tell me again that its not worth hedging coz it costs you some of your profit
