Manny Backus's First Hour Trading

[smoqui]

I have been a member for just a few weeks. My results were good on first attempt. Made about $100 in first few minutes. Since then, I haven't made a dime. Basically, you just follow the trades for the day as provided in a chat room. Everything is finished usually in the first 10-15 minutes. I have only seen one day so far that lasted anywhere near the first hour.
There are usually about 250-300 members signed on to the chat, and presumably at least some of them are following the trades. My problem is that everything moves so fast it is almost impossible to get into or out of the trades anywhere close to the suggested entries/exits. My personal results this morning pretty much convinced me to forget this and drop following it immediately. If you are trading on a very fast broker like IB (Interactive Brokers) or TradeStation, you may possibly be able to get into these trades somewhere close to the recommendations. For almost any other broker, you chances of success are definitely limited. This morning was the worst example of this that I have seen so far. There was only one trade recommended. It was recommended as a Long trade. The stock was downgraded on the news (which could have been checked before the trade if I had any sense at all) and immediately dropped several points. This is the most money I have lost at any time since last October. I think the entire thing is basically a scam to allow Manny Backus to manipulate the market by a few cents by convincing his followers to trade. Most trades are entered at prices which I never actually see in my quote window, and exited within about 2-3 minutes, with the suggest exit point never actually showing in my quote window. In other words, if you are practically sitting next to Manny and watchin what he is doing, you may make some money. Otherwise, it is more likely that you will be contributing the money to his followers with little chance of duplicating his results. If you are really good at trading quickly, and have a large account to support you, and a very fast direct access broker, you can probably trade on a daily basis to make a few cents on each trade. That means, in case you are inexperienced, that you must be trading 1000 or more shares on each trade to actually come up with the results he advertises. Unless you can make daily trades in the range of $40,000 or better, you had best forget this and concentrade on something a little slower paced.

 

[smoqui]

Manny's System

The basic method of this is just following Manny's daily recommended trades. If there are enough members logged on and they follow his trades, then things go in his direction. This all moves very very fast. Unless you are using a matrix order entry screen or a book trader, or something similar, you are very unlikely to be able to get quotes and place orders fast enough to be able to get the results he advertises. After you are in his group for a week or two, you will be offered his "system" to follow on your own if you want. It is priced rather highly, and I cannot address whether it would be worthwhile or not, as I decided "I'm outta here!" There is no way my results following him during the trial would convince me to spend $200 plus each month to keep up with this. It's basically a group trade attempting to move the market a few cents in order to grab $100 or so per day. In order to do this $100, you would have to place trade of 1000 or more shares each time, as there is an extremely small spread between the entry and exit recommendations. Also, despite what you think, the recommended entries and exits will be adjusted several times during each trade. Unless you are on your third cup of espresso and very quick at order entry, you will never be able to keep up with this nonsense. Definitely not for beginners or the faint of heart.

 

[zacharydw00]

I tried Manny's free 30 day trial, and I have to agree with the previous posts from; rap2win - May 8 2009, BobP - Jun 13 2009, and smoqui. Fast and furious with lots of slippage from Manny's entries and exits. Manny manages to enter pennies from the bottom, and exits pennies from the top. I logged my results and Manny's, plus added a scoring system to help me determine his overall direction accuracy. See the attached file. I used my Think or Swim paper money account to track my results. The paper money model may have added a little more slippage vs. real money, but luckily I didn't find out . If anyone plans on trying FHT, please feel free to use my spread sheet to track your results.

 

[Winner7]

AVOID MANNY BACKUS like the plague. I too agree with the above folks. He trades too fast so we miss most of the winners. I emailed him many times asking why he doesn't use the mic so we can HEAR when he's about to buy/short--he never responded.

So by the time the chat posts the order signal it's already at the target price....NOT COOL! --good for HIM and his numbers, not us.

Also his stops are sooooo far down that one trade going against you...and they will, will wipe away 5 winners profit. Also NOT COOL!!

Then after canceling he wants you to buy his "secret" way of trading. Oh really?? So you get the secret AFTER paying for a YEARS subscription, about $2000ish depending on how the current scam is running.

Sad, but just another way for THEM to make money.

 

[swonce]

Re: Manny's System

The basic method of this is just following Manny's daily recommended trades. If there are enough members logged on and they follow his trades, then things go in his direction. This all moves very very fast. Unless you are using a matrix order entry screen or a book trader, or something similar, you are very unlikely to be able to get quotes and place orders fast enough to be able to get the results he advertises. After you are in his group for a week or two, you will be offered his "system" to follow on your own if you want. It is priced rather highly, and I cannot address whether it would be worthwhile or not, as I decided "I'm outta here!" There is no way my results following him during the trial would convince me to spend $200 plus each month to keep up with this. It's basically a group trade attempting to move the market a few cents in order to grab $100 or so per day. In order to do this $100, you would have to place trade of 1000 or more shares each time, as there is an extremely small spread between the entry and exit recommendations. Also, despite what you think, the recommended entries and exits will be adjusted several times during each trade. Unless you are on your third cup of espresso and very quick at order entry, you will never be able to keep up with this nonsense. Definitely not for beginners or the faint of heart.

Lets not forget this is day trading we are talking about. It is not recommended for everyone. In fact it can be considered "looked down upon" from average investors. You must be quick, know whats going on, and have the funds to back your actions. This is a profession in stock trading. This guy does nothing more than the homework that is required to be a successful day trader. I would pay someone to do this homework. I would like to see how well this guy does his. If you dont have the confidence then dont do it

 

[jaspertrademaster]

It is a good thing that this joke has been brought to light.

 

[stevy]

here is my experience with first hour trading:

- joined last month on the free trial
- opened a trial with lightspeed.com trading platform - i used a 5000 dollars to see if i could profit on a demo. To first hour trade you need a super fast platform (direct access to the stock market), to get in quick. Using the demo i have made a profit every day for two weeks with one loss and one break even.
- now started real account using lightspeed.com platform - trading 10,000 dollars.

My advice is try First hour trading for free to see if you can profit - make sure you get direct market access and use a margin account so you can sell. Also, you don't need to get in exactly when manny does - he usually makes a trade within first few minutes so you get an idea of when you should get in. I also sell for my profit before manny does because i'm happy with 50 - 100 dollars profit every day.

Use manny as a guide and get Direct market access software and i think FHT is just awesome - i look forward to trading in the morning.

Also - don't trade with money you don't want to loose - that way you just have more confidence to follow the trade through and accept the stop loss you make. Be diciplined and know when to stop trading - don't overtrade.

One last thing - the person above complained that manny traded to fast - manny doesn't trade to fast but he just trades to slow. In volatile first hour conditions you got to be on your feet and ready to move. Manny picks two stocks every day so be in a position to buy either of them quickly on the whim with just one press of a button. I devised my own system with lightspeed so i can buy either stop straight away when i hear the sound or just want to plunge in. I have one stop open with a limit order and on "modify" - i switch the modify stop to market buy so i just press one button to buy it. The second stock i have ready to buy in the normal place - just one press of a button and bingo i'm in.

 

[Long_trader]

I tried Manny's free 30 day trial, and I have to agree with the previous posts from; rap2win - May 8 2009, BobP - Jun 13 2009, and smoqui. Fast and furious with lots of slippage from Manny's entries and exits. Manny manages to enter pennies from the bottom, and exits pennies from the top. I logged my results and Manny's, plus added a scoring system to help me determine his overall direction accuracy. See the attached file. I used my Think or Swim paper money account to track my results. The paper money model may have added a little more slippage vs. real money, but luckily I didn't find out . If anyone plans on trying FHT, please feel free to use my spread sheet to track your results.

Thanks for the spreadsheet - very useful for determing the accuracy of the service offered. Unless I can purchase at least 1,500 pieces of any stock, it isn't worth my while as the commissions eat up $14. Therefore, I'd be watching for small spreads of maybe a few cents and likely looking at 2,000 pieces. Yes, a substantial cash outlay but it seems necessary if the spreads are tight. The charts in the spreadsheet were often upwards of 10 cents or more. That's $200 less commission. Are other users finding these results to be typical? Most of the stock pick services I've seen command rates around $500 to $1,000 annually with success rates not comensurate with the fee but usually one can recoup the investment within a month (trading in the volumes noted above).

 

[maxima]

I am really really tring to understand - the fast - how fast we talk here? 10ms or 2 sips of coffee?

is there a video just to give an idea - what is considered fast here? :innocent:

 

[maxima]

So much f#cking criticism and no single soul can answer my simple questions?

I draw that poor Manny advert attracts only imbecilles...

 

[smartgxl]

When it comes to a lot of these stock advisory services, most of the time, the advisor buys the stock the day BEFORE. Then, the next day in the chat room, they tell you to BUY. As soon as the market starts moving up, they SELL. Then, right after they have sold their position (at an amazing profit), they tell you, the victim, er, I mean the client to sell.

On top of all that, they are charging you a MONTHLY FEE to do all of this!!

This is a well known problem in the stock advisory service "business" out there on the internet. I do not think that options advisory services have this problem, as the price of an option is driven more by the price of the underlying security.

 

[razor99]

here is my experience with first hour trading:

- joined last month on the free trial
- opened a trial with lightspeed.com trading platform - i used a 5000 dollars to see if i could profit on a demo. To first hour trade you need a super fast platform (direct access to the stock market), to get in quick. Using the demo i have made a profit every day for two weeks with one loss and one break even.
- now started real account using lightspeed.com platform - trading 10,000 dollars.

My advice is try First hour trading for free to see if you can profit - make sure you get direct market access and use a margin account so you can sell. Also, you don't need to get in exactly when manny does - he usually makes a trade within first few minutes so you get an idea of when you should get in. I also sell for my profit before manny does because i'm happy with 50 - 100 dollars profit every day.

Use manny as a guide and get Direct market access software and i think FHT is just awesome - i look forward to trading in the morning.

Also - don't trade with money you don't want to loose - that way you just have more confidence to follow the trade through and accept the stop loss you make. Be diciplined and know when to stop trading - don't overtrade.

One last thing - the person above complained that manny traded to fast - manny doesn't trade to fast but he just trades to slow. In volatile first hour conditions you got to be on your feet and ready to move. Manny picks two stocks every day so be in a position to buy either of them quickly on the whim with just one press of a button. I devised my own system with lightspeed so i can buy either stop straight away when i hear the sound or just want to plunge in. I have one stop open with a limit order and on "modify" - i switch the modify stop to market buy so i just press one button to buy it. The second stock i have ready to buy in the normal place - just one press of a button and bingo i'm in.

Stevy, how are you able to daytarde with a 10k account?

I was thinking of switching to Lightspeed from tradestation as the TS platform I never can get comfortable daytrading with the interface. Love the charts, but not a daytaders dream for entering orders.

Cant speak for Manny's service but IMHO the key to daytrading is just getting some active stocks on the watch list and play them using momentum either up or down. Hard to profit from flat lines....

 

[Hilarymannah]

My learnings on "scams",....
Go for it,.live and learn,..if you don't,..all your life, you will rely on others opinions ( their life experience),..
To be able to make the distinction of false and true is the gift of "effort",..and to really see the multitudes of what life has to offer,......
IMO,..To force an experience on someone is to deprive them of "life",...: ),..To live, is to rely on one's self!,..(maybe),...

 

[PatLilly]

Yes, I would really be interested to know how it went with "First Hour Trading", if you remember after all this time.

Thanks.

Pat Lilly

Guys, this is my first post. I have subscribed to Mannny's portfolio trading system. I have had it for two weeks now. he basically gives up to four short term recommendations (stocks) per week and one long term recommendation. I have nine recommendations in these two weeks. Of these nine trades, two winners, six losers, and one position still open that looks like it will be profitable. The total tally is down-$1410.00 on a 25000 account 2/1 margin.Using $5k+margin per position. That includes the one trade still open with approx$400 profit.
I'm not actually trading his recommendations with real money. I daytrade the es-mini and have my own method.(notice I did not say system) I enter the market at logical pullbacks using a 1min and 3min chart and use support and resistance for my stops and exits.
I look at the charts of his recommendations and I can't seem to find the logic yet. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong time frame.
I am going to keep paper trading his system for a couple of months and see how it goes. I'm looking for an easy way to manage my retirement portfolio and was hoping Manny's would work. I will keep you informed if you care to know.

 

[PatLilly]

Stevy, are you still using FHT? If so, what;s your experience now?

Thanks,

Pat

Stevy, how are you able to daytarde with a 10k account?

I was thinking of switching to Lightspeed from tradestation as the TS platform I never can get comfortable daytrading with the interface. Love the charts, but not a daytaders dream for entering orders.

Cant speak for Manny's service but IMHO the key to daytrading is just getting some active stocks on the watch list and play them using momentum either up or down. Hard to profit from flat lines....

 

[PatLilly]

Stevy, are you still using FHT now? If so, are you still liking it?

Thanks.

Pat

 

[kimk]

I took the free trial to see what it is. The site is run by Manny Backus, who was already shut down once by SEC - https://www.secure.psc.state.pa.us/...D5A848774B9&jsessionid=8030288461280173980046

The system is simple. He trades 1-3 stocks within the first hour of trading and claims for 1% profit per day. Of course having 1% per day would give you about 250% per year non-compounded.
There are few “small” problems with his system. Most of the stocks he picks are smaller and significantly less liquid (market cap of 1-2B, in some cases less than 1B). His normal profit target is 1% (10 cents on $10 stock), and the one-way slippage could be around 0.5%. Imagine Manny buying stock like PNFP, LIHR, HS,CAGC, HANS or MCRL (those are real examples) with average daily volume of few hundred thousand shares. Then all his followers (about 100-200) trying to buy 1,000-2,000 shares each. In many cases, that’s 20-30% of average daily volume. As a result, the stock goes up 1-2% in matter of seconds – but how many got the same fill as Manny? And what do you think would happen when they all try to sell at the same time?

No historic track record is available of course, so I tried to do my own tracking. The goal is 1% per trade. The winning rate is about 70%. The average gain is 0.35% per trade. Assuming allocation of 20k for his system (10k per trade), you would make a whopping $35 per trade before commissions. Assuming $20 for two way commissions (and most people pay more), it will leave you with $15 net profit per trade. If you make 30 trades per month, it gives you ~$450 return. Subtract $297 subscription fee – and you have $150 return on 20k investment (a whopping 0.75% per month). This return assumes that you are able to duplicate his results, which is impossible by definition.

His chat room is run by a moderator and is heavily censored. The moderator only allows positive posts. Private chat room was available but has been blocked to avoid free exchange of information between members. When I tried to post my tracking results (based on official fills), I was censored.

The problem is that the more people who believe the hype and sign up expecting to become millionaires due to the power of compounding 1% a day, the more impossible it actually is as increasingly large numbers chase the same one or two illiquid stocks.

Manny is a talented internet entrepreneur whose business model is clearly will make him rich. The service is a complete scam, like the rest of his services. Be aware.

 

[wackypete2]

He is trading his own account and using the members to move low liquidity stocks in his direction, then he gets out. Simple, effective, very low risk.

Peter

 

[rd.adam]

I read the posted charts, and agree with the results posted. Do not waste your money. Also, when Manny claims success, to his claim, a break even is a success, a win is a success, and of course a loss is a failure.....why would anyone claim a break even as a success? then factor in broker costs?

I tried all of his services, and currently am trying the Last hour service. So far I will continue playing the Last hour for another month, then most likely drop it as well.

I totally agree that Manny is very smart business man, but manipulates the market slightly, and it clearly states that he "May or May NOT" follow his own recommendations. As with all forms of gambling, the players only remember the wins, and overlook the losses.

Keep a definite record for a month or 2, factor in trade costs plus subscription costs, I will bet 90% of the members are losing money.

 

[nodaytrader]

The thing that hasn't been mentioned is he charges his 300 odd followers $300 a month to be a member, thats $100,000 a month without risking anything. He makes sure he wins most days by selling as soon as there is a spike from his recommendation to buy. He obviously isn't too interested in making money from his trading with that consistant 100K coming in. I have been watching and trying it 4 days now, 2 very small wins and one significant one but only if you stayed in way past when Manny got out. One loss day as well. Most of those 4 days there was a better trade in the opposite direction to what he recommended.

He is obviously smart and has come up with a pretty foolproof system for him self as long as he can pick a good stock or two each day.

With his moderator ensuring there is never a bad word said abou him on the forum he is laughing all the way to the bank.

I will stick to my system of picking a couple of blue clips and buying and selling them as they trade through a consistant range with a high and low price being met every 4 to 6 weeks. Set and forget pretty much!