Had you said that from the start I would know I'm dealing with an old timer and would have spared me the response.
Aronson and tssb? Give me a break. I just wasted 5 minutes replying to you.
Had you said that from the start I would know I'm dealing with an old timer and would have spared me the response.
Aronson and tssb? Give me a break. I just wasted 5 minutes replying to you.
I am well aware of PAL software and unlike you I had no problem cashing in a few of my chips to buy it.
Developing, you might want to learn how to code first. Sol, there is nothing to envy...that is the point I am making...only a fool gets over excited about in-sample results.
I've attached a picture of the equity curve of a committee of sub-systems I've developed. All cross-validated against other stocks etc (in the old days we called this inter-market analysis)...etc etc yarda yarda yarda yarda yarda... Constructed using algoritirms trained on Amazon's AWS cloud and Microsoft Azure machine learning infrastructure maintained by several CS undergraduates and finance by the illuminati. I could get killed for posting this picture.
I will let you know in 4 to 6 months if the above has succeeded...lol...GTFOH
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LOL...you are so funny (and broke)!
You are light years in the past in the years of DOS. Virtue just had an IPO. HFT firm, never had a losing day, not one, since 2008. Do you get that you old timer?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/virtu-ipo-to-test-perceptions-of-high-speed-trading-1429118691
Do you think the guys at Virtu rely on judgement and trading experience? No, they are quants and use technology. Only proper use of technology can make you money. Everyone thinks they have judgement. How many old timers with judgement do you think the market can reward? I think you should retire. Just friendly advice. Before you lose it all.
This guy is truly a fool. We are retail traders consequently many of the benefits industrial level trading enjoy aren't privy to us or do you really think trading a few million (or a few pounds in your case) means we have to be concerned with dark pools etc. Instead of reading an article and a snippet from a software manual, I suggest you actually go and get an education.
I challenge you to give this forum one of your profitable systems (I assume you have scores of them) with insample performance stats etc. In return I will do the same (after-all algo' developers like us build 100s of viable systems not all of which can be traded by us due to resource constraints.
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Friendly suggestion.....old timer...retire before you lose it all..
cosmicbeing
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Deep Thought
Hi Notcher,
Thanks for sharing your initial experiences with Deep Thought...sounds quite interesting...and extremely powerful...!
The manual was pretty extensive and thourough...but as you mentioned...it is a little daunting with how much info is given...and how it's organized.
However...in just the little time I've spent with reading the manual...the possibilities seem amazing...and well worth the time and effort to study it...
Care to share if you got any further with your setup's and testing for Deep Thought...?
If you have more suggestions for new users like myself to get started...and any examples you can share...that would be greatly appreciated..
Also...what system are you running Deep Thought on (Win version and CPU/RAM)...?
I'm trying to install it on Win 8.1 but had some install problems that I am working with Jonathan to solve.
In the meantime...thanks for sharing...and good luck and good success with your trading with Deep Thought...
Robert
Anyway, regarding DeepThought: I downloaded the demo and spent a weekend exploring it. I managed to contruct a number of models that were profitable ON PAPER (this means very little). I initially used the model templates provided with the demo and was able to run the first one after a couple of hours. After this I was customising the templates etc.
Reading the manual is a prerequisite to software operation. The manual is written excellently so the contents are very easy to read but this is extremely undermined by the structure of the manual. To get up and running quickly the structure of the manual makes it necessary to move from a page at the beginning to a page at the end to a page in the middle, beginning, end, middle, beginning, back, beginning etc. This is exacerbated by the need to type into a commandline and the vagaries of this anachronistic technology.
I come from the DOS era so being thrown back to an earlier age was quite nostalgic so the commandline interface wasn't over burdensome. However, I can write code in a variety of languages and can still remember alot of the old dos commands and I'm a finance and AI academic so my background is complementary. A user without a complentary background will find the DeepThought experience extremely daunting and who knows if the experience will even be marginally profitable?
The manual's structure needs to be urgently revisited. I recommend that the vendor review the TSSB manual written by Aronson. A comprehensive hands on tutorial should be at the beginning of the book. The tutorial should cross reference the main body for users requiring a more thorough explanation of concepts.
A word of advice: there is no substitute for the skills and market knowledge gleaned by manually trading. These skills and knowledge add 'invaluable' value when constructing algos then LEAVING them to run.
Hi Notcher,
Thanks for sharing your initial experiences with Deep Thought...sounds quite interesting...and extremely powerful...!
The manual was pretty extensive and thourough...but as you mentioned...it is a little daunting with how much info is given...and how it's organized.
However...in just the little time I've spent with reading the manual...the possibilities seem amazing...and well worth the time and effort to study it...
Care to share if you got any further with your setup's and testing for Deep Thought...?
If you have more suggestions for new users like myself to get started...and any examples you can share...that would be greatly appreciated..
Also...what system are you running Deep Thought on (Win version and CPU/RAM)...?
I'm trying to install it on Win 8.1 but had some install problems that I am working with Jonathan to solve.
In the meantime...thanks for sharing...and good luck and good success with your trading with Deep Thought...
Robert
Krzysiaczek99
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and here is a free machine learning tool for trading
http://www.tssbsoftware.com/index.html
Did anybody tried it already ??
Krzysztof
http://www.tssbsoftware.com/index.html
Did anybody tried it already ??
Krzysztof
Yes, we tried it and we are now retired in the Bahamas
If you want support for this outdated piece of software you got to pay its developer. The free software is a trap for people to pay for support.
" Email support is billed at $150 per hour paid in advance via PayPal. The minimum is one hour with any unused balance carried forward.
Phone consultation is $250 per hour, one hour minimum paid in advance, any unused balance carried forward.
Phone consultation with screen sharing is $300 per hour, two hour minimum paid in advance, any unused balance carried forward. "
This is ridiculous. On top of that from what I was able to figure out this software does not offer any edge. You can do with R everything it does.
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Krzysiaczek99
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Yes, we tried it and we are now retired in the Bahamas
If you want support for this outdated piece of software you got to pay its developer. The free software is a trap for people to pay for support.
" Email support is billed at $150 per hour paid in advance via PayPal. The minimum is one hour with any unused balance carried forward.
Phone consultation is $250 per hour, one hour minimum paid in advance, any unused balance carried forward.
Phone consultation with screen sharing is $300 per hour, two hour minimum paid in advance, any unused balance carried forward. "
This is ridiculous. On top of that from what I was able to figure out this software does not offer any edge. You can do with R everything it does.
Do you have their book ?? what is a difference between book and manual ??
Krzysztof
cosmicbeing
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Hi Krzysztof,
I did download TSSB to see the manual and try a few examples... Wow...
For me as a new student in Machine Learning...all the new info and concepts...verging on being almost overwhelming for me...and it's going to take time to learn it.
The two authors have done a tremendous job...making powerful TSSB machine learning available to all of us...and for free...!
However Solas has a good point...while the program is free...the support costs for TSSB are pretty expensive for the average person...
But to be fair to the authors...compared to industry consultants for Machine Learning with 6 figure consulting fees...those support costs for TSSB are relatively cheap...
Also the cost of the book is far less than any college course on Machine Learning...and I consider that a big positive.
I mentioned in an earlier post here that I was starting to play with Deep Thought...
Both TSSB and Deep Thought present a fairly huge learning curve for me as a novice...and both have huge pros and cons.
I was able to do a quick comparison of Deep Thought with TSSB...and there were two main criteria for me in choosing which one I wanted to start with...
(1) Ease of use (faster learning curve)...
(2) Immediate connections to MT4 (most important)...
For the first reason...Deep Thought...while challenging and complex in it's own rights...in comparison to TSSB...is feeling much easier for me to start with...
The second reason is definitely the most important reason for me...
Deep Thought interfaces directly with MT4...right out of the box. This is really amazing...
It has ready-made MT4 EA templates and an MT4 CSV import indicators built-in...
I can get right to work learning and using them...and that's a huge plus...!
TSSB said they do not have any MT4 inter-connectivity yet...and if someone wants to pay them to develop it for MT4...they may consider developing it later.
Deep Thought offers me the opportunity to jump start real applications with Machine Learning and MT4 immediately.
TSSB does look very powerful and I may go back and learn a little more about TSSB after I learn more of the basics for Deep Thought.
In the meantime...thanks for the TSSB suggestion and your other link to the TSSB/Hurst video... Very interesting stuff...!
Take care,
Robert
cosmicbeing
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Hi Notcher...
As a follow up to my earlier note to you...
I did successfully download and install Deep Thought with Jonathan's help...
Once installed...I jumped right and started trying the examples...almost fell out of my chair seeing all the incredible possibilities...!
After playing with the Deep Thought predictive examples...I got as far as actually running the EA in the Strategy Tester and everything seems to work fine.
First test results weren't too good yet...but it's a mind-blowing accomplishment for me as a new learner...to be actually using Deep Thought Machine Learning with MT4...
Of course the built-in MT4 EA's for Deep Thought helped tremendously and saved me huge amounts of time and coding.
You are accurate in saying the process is a little daunting to use the command line...but once I got the basic steps down...I could do things pretty smoothly.
Jonathan said he will continue working on a GUI for Deep Thought...and that will make Deep Thought even more powerful.
For me...it's exciting and worth the effort to learn the basics of Machine Learning with Deep Thought...especially if you want the immediate MT4 connections.
Just jump right in...and be patient with the Deep Thought learning curve using the command line for now.
My next goal this week is to start learning and using the MT4 Live/Paper Trading steps with Deep Thought...
Thanks to Jonathan for the opportunity to jump into the amazing world of Deep Thought Machine Learning and Forex Trading...!
Notcher - care to share if you made any further progress in your Deep Thought efforts...?
Robert
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M
malaguti
cosmicbeing
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Deep Thought said no fewer than 11 times, that's not a plug at all is it!
Hi Malaguti,
Actually...it is...and isn't...a plug for Deep Thought...
Start with...it isn't...
I have no relationship with Jonathan the author for Deep Thought...other than being a really excited new user...
So I have no financial benefits from plugging Deep Thought at all..
On the other hand...I'm blown away by the possibilities of Deep Thought and Machine Learning...
My logic is real simple...the more people that try Deep Thought and share what they have learned...the better for all of us.
Since Deep Thought is fairly complicated and very powerful...the more I can learn from everyone...the faster I can start applying what I'm learning...
So in that respect...yes...I'm plugging Deep Thought.
You can read my posts as uncontrollable excitement for the possibilities I see with Deep Thought and want to share it with others...
Hope this helps,
Robert
hhiusa
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Andrew Ng from Stanford University has a great lecture class on machine learning. The lecture notes can be found here.
https://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning
The videos of the lectures can be found at iTunesU, which are free to download.
I believe Stanford University also provides a virtual box to practice your programming.
https://www.coursera.org/learn/machine-learning
The videos of the lectures can be found at iTunesU, which are free to download.
I believe Stanford University also provides a virtual box to practice your programming.
Support cost is not the main issue. The main issue is that machine learning does not work. The cause: data snooping. For details see this
There is no way to measure data snooping. This is also interesting
cosmicbeing
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Apologies to this thread...
Morning all,
My apologies to the posters here on this thread...
Seems my overly exuberant posts on Deep Thought were deemed spam...when they were just my uncontrollable excitement about the program.
In any case the thread itself should not have been deleted...
I talked with Admin to re-open this thread again...and they were very helpful and understanding.
Sorry guys and gals...I'll promise to control my excitement about Deep Thought advanced machine learning in the future...!
Thanks,
Robert
Morning all,
My apologies to the posters here on this thread...
Seems my overly exuberant posts on Deep Thought were deemed spam...when they were just my uncontrollable excitement about the program.
In any case the thread itself should not have been deleted...
I talked with Admin to re-open this thread again...and they were very helpful and understanding.
Sorry guys and gals...I'll promise to control my excitement about Deep Thought advanced machine learning in the future...!
Thanks,
Robert
hhiusa
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Not a problem. If you found a system that works, do not let people tell you it will not work.
cosmicbeing
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Hi Solas...
I'm still such a novice at neural nets and machine learning that I don't know much about "data snooping"...so I'm not able to discuss it in depth with you.
However...the fact that Google and Amazon and many other big boys are successfully using machine learning everyday tells me they either found a solution or a work around...
Also...the program TSSB mentioned earlier is a very interesting statistical approach to machine learning that "seems" to handle the "data snooping" concerns.
See David Aronson's books...TSSB book and in particular the following book:
“Evidence Based Technical Analysis”. First popular book to deal with data mining bias and Monte Carlo Permutation Method for generating bias free p-values."
That's the book's quote...not mine.
Someone more advanced than me would have to explain how all it works.
Thanks,
Robert
cosmicbeing
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Deep Thought And TSSB
Hi Krzysztof...
You earlier asked this board about TSSB...and I stated I did check it out...but I was going to focus on learning Deep Thought instead of TSSB.
I eventually ended up playing with both programs...and was amazed to find that they actually may complement each other...
TSSB is extremely sophisticated with it's solid statistical basis for machine learning... It's a little harder to work with for me...but I'm learning a lot with it.
Deep Thought continues to be the more exciting one for me...
Especially in that it's the only advanced machine learning program I know of that actually has built-in MT4 Expert Advisors...and...actually does real-time trading...
As a confirmed novice with machine learning...I love the fact that Deep Thought also has built-in machine learning algo's that I can watch and learn how they work.
In the meantime...let me turn the question around for you...
What machine learning programs are you currently using...and what do you think of either Deep Thought and/or TSSB...?
Thanks and take care,
Robert
Hi Krzysztof...
You earlier asked this board about TSSB...and I stated I did check it out...but I was going to focus on learning Deep Thought instead of TSSB.
I eventually ended up playing with both programs...and was amazed to find that they actually may complement each other...
TSSB is extremely sophisticated with it's solid statistical basis for machine learning... It's a little harder to work with for me...but I'm learning a lot with it.
Deep Thought continues to be the more exciting one for me...
Especially in that it's the only advanced machine learning program I know of that actually has built-in MT4 Expert Advisors...and...actually does real-time trading...
As a confirmed novice with machine learning...I love the fact that Deep Thought also has built-in machine learning algo's that I can watch and learn how they work.
In the meantime...let me turn the question around for you...
What machine learning programs are you currently using...and what do you think of either Deep Thought and/or TSSB...?
Thanks and take care,
Robert
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