Best Thread Live Cable Trading

[JonnyT]

Stops

Guys, I have backtested extensively and I have never found anything that produces better profits over the test using trailing stops.

I'd be certain that Hans system will work best pretty much how it is. You will on occasion throw away large profits but you will avoid the whip. For example a 30 pip trailing stop to me on GBP is a joke.

Unfortunately if you want to trade mechanically this is the sort of action you have to accept on occaison. On another day it might have pulled back 70 pips then zoomed up 150 from the pullback.

My view is that you should have tight stops on entries (15 pips max), on pullbacks and get to BE pretty quickly then run with it looking for the days trend.

I could be wrong.

JonnyT

 

[Baruch]

I thought Big B was the first new move after 7 confirmed by Euro??

It was - but I changed the rules so now it is the first breakout from the range (like Big Ben).

 

[Ripcord]

Because the rules says at least 7 pips.

This is a new one on us. So even tho cable has broken by 7 the EUR must do also is that what you are saying?

Then take a 30pip trailing stop loss. This is going to be fun to watch. Please trade with real cash Baruch. You'll be able to by us all lunch from the local soup kitchen.

 

[Baruch]

Guys, I have backtested extensively and I have never found anything that produces better profits over the test using trailing stops.

I'd be certain that Hans system will work best pretty much how it is. You will on occasion throw away large profits but you will avoid the whip. For example a 30 pip trailing stop to me on GBP is a joke.

Unfortunately if you want to trade mechanically this is the sort of action you have to accept on occaison. On another day it might have pulled back 70 pips then zoomed up 150 from the pullback.

My view is that you should have tight stops on entries (15 pips max), on pullbacks and get to BE pretty quickly then run with it looking for the days trend.

I could be wrong.

JonnyT

Yes, I agree - using a trailing stop is not a very good solution, but I don't have them better. Do you? With Hans123 you can have 115 pips in profit - like I understood was the situation yesterday - which can go back to b/e. Who wants to give up 115 pips in profit to get nothing? The best would be to place the stops where the charts tell you to do it - but how can you make a rule about that?

 

[Baruch]

This is a new one on us. So even tho cable has broken by 7 the EUR must do also is that what you are saying?

Then take a 30pip trailing stop loss. This is going to be fun to watch. Please trade with real cash Baruch. You'll be able to by us all lunch from the local soup kitchen.

Nothing new in that. Read the rules (for Big Ben).

PS. A 30 pips trailing stop is OK in euro, but maybe it should be bigger in cable? 40 pips? 50 pips? But who want to say goodbuy to a 50 pips profit?

 

[dc2000]

Ah I see I missed the change of rules

hasn't JT done some backtesting with breakout strats if this is the new rule Im sure he could confirm if its viable

 

[trendie]

a question to anyone who downloaded the MACD2 indicator for MT-4: ( yesterday )

I think it is giving different results to those I was expecting.

Using the original MACD indicator as a guide, the new one should show a 2-line cross-over on the MACD2 when the original shows the histogram break the zero-line.

I am not getting consistency between the original and macd2.
unless I am reading it wrong.

 

[Vegas5]

a question to anyone who downloaded the MACD2 indicator for MT-4: ( yesterday )

I think it is giving different results to those I was expecting.

Using the original MACD indicator as a guide, the new one should show a 2-line cross-over on the MACD2 when the original shows the histogram break the zero-line.

I am not getting consistency between the original and macd2.
unless I am reading it wrong.

Trendie / all

THe macd indicator that i posted yesterday was downloaded of a yahoo indicator group. I would not know whether it is accurate or not, so please test it throughly before making any decisions based on it.

Cheers,

Vin

 

[Vegas5]

a question to anyone who downloaded the MACD2 indicator for MT-4: ( yesterday )

I think it is giving different results to those I was expecting.

Using the original MACD indicator as a guide, the new one should show a 2-line cross-over on the MACD2 when the original shows the histogram break the zero-line.

I am not getting consistency between the original and macd2.
unless I am reading it wrong.

Not wishing to sound patronising, but are the moving average levels the same for both indicators?

 

[Ripcord]

Nothing new in that. Read the rules (for Big Ben).

PS. A 30 pips trailing stop is OK in euro, but maybe it should be bigger in cable? 40 pips? 50 pips? But who want to say goodbuy to a 50 pips profit?

This is a serious observation and maybe a suggestion.

If you are talking about trading the 6-7 breakout confirmed by 7 pips on GBP andEUR then you must accept that at least 50% of the time this trade will lose money if you are looking to clear 50 pips plus on it.

My suggestion for stop would be the opposite side of entry eg. 7 pips below if long and my taget for the day would be based around the R2 or L2 pivot point.

What is fundamental tho is that you adjust your risk accordingly. If the range is 30 pips one day and you trade £20 a pip and the next day the range is 50 then reduce your trade to £12 a pip. This is one of the most basic areas that many new traders overlook thinking that they are being consistant by trading the same amount and only concerning themselves with pip count. I personally do not concentrate on pips its the cash that matters to me

 

[trendie]

Trendie / all

THe macd indicator that i posted yesterday was downloaded of a yahoo indicator group. I would not know whether it is accurate or not, so please test it throughly before making any decisions based on it.

Cheers,

Vin

no probs, Vin.

I agree we should test any indicator.
in fact I have learned a lot about how indicators are put together, and how the data generates the signals. it helps the trader make judgments as to "appropriateness" of signals.
( I know, I know, thinking again !! )

 

[Vegas5]

Baruch,

Just trying to get some clarification, we just had a breakout of the 6-7gmt range to the upside which was confirmed by the euro?

Or was it not taken due to the false (unconfirmed) breakout to he downside?

(reason for the questions: had a look at your strat and jan 06 to date its appears to be quite profitable, but am interested in your qualifiers.)

 

[Baruch]

This is a serious observation and maybe a suggestion.

If you are talking about trading the 6-7 breakout confirmed by 7 pips on GBP andEUR then you must accept that at least 50% of the time this trade will lose money if you are looking to clear 50 pips plus on it.

My suggestion for stop would be the opposite side of entry eg. 7 pips below if long and my taget for the day would be based around the R2 or L2 pivot point.

What is fundamental tho is that you adjust your risk accordingly. If the range is 30 pips one day and you trade £20 a pip and the next day the range is 50 then reduce your trade to £12 a pip. This is one of the most basic areas that many new traders overlook thinking that they are being consistant by trading the same amount and only concerning themselves with pip count. I personally do not concentrate on pips its the cash that matters to me

Good suggestion.

 

[Kaffee]

This is a serious observation and maybe a suggestion.

If you are talking about trading the 6-7 breakout confirmed by 7 pips on GBP andEUR then you must accept that at least 50% of the time this trade will lose money if you are looking to clear 50 pips plus on it.

My suggestion for stop would be the opposite side of entry eg. 7 pips below if long and my taget for the day would be based around the R2 or L2 pivot point.

What is fundamental tho is that you adjust your risk accordingly. If the range is 30 pips one day and you trade £20 a pip and the next day the range is 50 then reduce your trade to £12 a pip. This is one of the most basic areas that many new traders overlook thinking that they are being consistant by trading the same amount and only concerning themselves with pip count. I personally do not concentrate on pips its the cash that matters to me

Opposing the breakout is no better than 50-50 also... And because it's a contra trend trade it is in fact worse odds than that. Having manually tested over 13 months of data, by eye, it returns less than trading the break.

 

[Baruch]

Opposing the breakout is no better than 50-50 also... And because it's a contra trend trade it is in fact worse odds than that. Having manually tested over 13 months of data, by eye, it returns less than trading the break.

OK. So what do you suggest?

PS. Any results from Hans123?

 

[JonnyT]

Don't trade BO's!!!

JonnyT

 

[Kaffee]

OK. So what do you suggest?

PS. Any results from Hans123?

Take 150 pips from Big Baruch like you did yesterday.

 

[Ripcord]

Don't trade BO's!!!

JonnyT

Wouldn't disagree with that JT. I have watched in horror too many times my money going down the drain seconds after jumping on a breakout.

 

[eatontrade]

Can I ask why you are looking for the 6-7 range to give you any clues when most Interbank traders dont start work until 7am ?

7-8 is the first trading hour of the UK day surely this is going to be more representative ?

Apologies if this is all explained in previous posts...

 

[Kaffee]

Don't trade BO's!!!

JonnyT

And a contra trend trade will murder you on days like yesterday... viz a vis Zuke, DC and er... Tom H !!!