leovirgo's Blog

[leovirgo]

Dow trading

A nice day, in fact a round trip day.

Today: SELL Day

Yeserday's late BUY signal did the wonder. But there was resistance around 11070. As soon as it became clear that it couldn't go beyond that, it was a SELL day in action.

Yup, it fell all the way to yesterday's low.

Tomorrow: Shortsale day.

Based on today's closing, I expect a bounce, perhaps for a nice shortsale entry. But downward momentum is decreasing.

If the bounce is sold off severly, we are in for another swing short which would go even lower on the following day.

On the other hand, if tomorrow is either V shaped shortsale day or High made last SS day, then we will see higher prices at least for the short term.

 

[leovirgo]

Dow trading

What a nice day it turned out to be.

As expected, there was a nice short entry and the decline was swift and ruthless.

But just as cautioned in earlier post, it turned out to be a V-shaped Shortsale day. On a shortsale day, this kind of behaviour is telling us that the buyers are stepping in. Biggies are changing their portfolios whatever it may be. For a swing trader, it says tomorrow is important. heehe everyday is important. If there is just a small decline in the earlier session and the prices break out to the upside, then it is a Long entry. If not, .. yes, it is still in the down trend.

Tomorrow: BUY day

I will illustrate V-shaped day in my personal blog.
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Bearish Buy Day for Dow

Bullish attempts failed when the prices broke down below Super Trend(ST) support line. Yesterday's LONG at 10855 gave us +80 points.

Today is range day in technical terms because long-term CCI could not penetrate above 100 line and this rejection made MACDHistogram Momentum's bearish move in charge.

Midday, prices reversed the trend. But broke down below ST again.

Tomorrow: SELL day

We can expect breach of today's low as the closing was weak on Buy day. Today was NR5 day as well. Some bearish pressure will force the index to trade lower. It may recover from lower prices though.
My personal blog site at
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[erierambler]

Nice to see your journal. I've been following the $SPX. For me Monday is a buy day, potential higher bottom buy, bullish indications. We will see. Don't let me confuse you.
keep it going Leo
erie

 

[leovirgo]

Nice to see your journal. I've been following the $SPX. For me Monday is a buy day, potential higher bottom buy, bullish indications. We will see. Don't let me confuse you.
keep it going Leo
erie

Thanks for dropping by. It does not matter what day it is. The price reaction is the key, right? If it was a BUY day, I would wait for a swing low and BUY, but it did not reach previous day's High and came back, hence Low made last day expected, hence Go short. Similar action. cheers...

 

[leovirgo]

A SELL day for Dow

Dow traded lower prices as indicated by the Friday's closing. A weak closing on BUY day is usually followed by Buy Day Low Violation on SELL DAY (per Taylor's Book Method)

Today was SELL DAY. No surprise. Dow ended 99 points lower.

Technically, there were two scalp shorts in the early session. Our system shouted SELL in the second session after lunch time.

Early Warning System identified a Short entry and it was confiremd by 5 Star System.

A nice decline went for 100+ points.

Hope everbody got a chunk of it. See my chart analysis at personal blog sit.
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Dow bulls vs bears

Today was shortsale day.

In the system view, today was really a struggle between bulls and bears. Yesterday's down trend was interrupted when the prices broke out above super trend at 10820.

Out of market prices went down as low as 10750, perhaps an indication of the market's bias.

Nevertheless, there was a short entry @10800 which deliverd about 40 points

We missed second short entry @10780. The main reason for passing that trade was simply because long-term CCI staying above long-termCCIMA. It did not cross down convincingly, a sign of technical resistance.

What happened next was not magic. Prices bounced hard and rallied 100 points. We took the long trade, out before it hit 10800. It wasn't meant to be a trend trade.

The last 100 points decline was a surprise.

Tomorrow = BUY day

My personal blog site has chart illustration for today
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Buy day for Dow

Today was BUY day but the buying power came quite late. There was a number of buy attempts in the earl but they were heavily sold off.

Took a short trade when it breached super trend support. But later it was stopped out as the decline did not materialise into a proper down trend.

Last hour buying was much more convincing and a long trade was taken @10750+, exited the trade @10790+. A bit too early, but still not convinced about after hour trading, like to watch the closing.

It was frustrating to get caught up in the whipsaws but BUY days in the beginning of a trend are usually late buying days.

News impact

CPI came higher than expected- core rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. But the market did not fall to pre-market levels of 10660s.

Tomorrow is SELL day but today's closing was 99%. A follow through to higher prices is expected for tomorrow.

 

[leovirgo]

Dow follow through to higher prices

Just as expected, DOW is making follow through to higher prices.

Yesterday's up trend is locked with super trend +120 points.

========

The up trend continued all the way to 11030+. A very nice up trend, from 10750+ to 11030, 280 points!

Tomorrow is Shortsale day.

But in the uptrend, the second part of the day is often bullish, it would mean a very bullish situation which would last for at least another week. Two day rally was abit parabolic. We might get a nice shortsale tomorrow.

See the up trend chart at my personal blog site
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Dow NR7 day

Today was narrow range day (61pts, not so bad but quite low comparatively)

Caught up in a couple of false break outs, momentum break outs did not work well on this kind of day.

The shortsale part of the day came very late.

Monday is BUY day in TTT. Because of today's weak closing, we can expect a low made first on Monday (around 10985, today's low)

The daily chart points to a technical resistance at 11040, the downside is at least 100 pts.

Besides, NR7 day may be followed by a trending day. If the decline does not go below 10985, look to go Long on momentum strength, otherwise to go short.

So.. decided to keep the short trade open for Monday. Stop order at 11044.

 

[leovirgo]

Dow SELL day

I did not update my journal yesterday due to personal circumstances. My short trade carried over from last Friday got stopped out at 11044 before the market went down as expected.

Monday: BUY day

Dow BUY day set up at 10985 failed yesterday and it closed lower on Monday.

Tuesday : SELL day

Today's trade (YMU06 September futures)
Short @11024 (win)
Long @ 11045 (win)
Short @ 11096 (win)
Long @ 11091 (losing trade)
Short @ 11073(win)


Buy day low violation (10908) did not take place. But Resistance around 10985 is still in place.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) : Shortsale day

Based on today's closing, it is NOT expected to test the high of 11030. Let's see if we get a good shortsale.

 

[leovirgo]

DOW: No shortsale on Shorsale day

Today is Shortsale day for DOW. However, it is trending up. My system said 'Go long' in the early session.

Long @ 11024 (win)
Long @ 11068 (win)

Dow is now trading at 11100+.

My system says 'no shortsale please'. That would be enough for today. And this hayfever is bothering me so much. I need rain.

 

[leovirgo]

DOW : out of sync

It was a weak BUY day. And, what was I doing today???

I was buying with "expectations" without a valid signal from my system. My system suggested a decline to 11026, and the BUY number is 10989. If momentum was strong enough, my system would give a signal at higher prices . Momentum was weak & I shoulda waited until the bearish pressure is exhausted.

Long 11030 (still open).

My system gave a Short signal at 11040.

If it doesn't rally in the early session tomorrow, it has to be closed. 11040 resistance is the key again.

 

[leovirgo]

DOW trading with TS

I have now moved on to futures trading. There was a bit of execution headaches as I started withTradeStation platform. One funny thing - I have assigned hotkeys - S as sell@market and B as buy@market. Without turning them off, I was trying to amend indicators settings with EasyLanguage programming document. As soon as I typed S sell orders were placed!! Another incident- I was in the beginning of the uptrend, knowing that the move was strong .. I placed Stop order with Limit mode. My long trade was immediately closed at market. Well these things are good experience.

Other than that, I can now create custom indicators. And I dont neeed Prorealtime data feed as I can find $DJI in TradeStation saving me some hard earned money.

I haven't updated my blog either. Still...

Today
=====

DOW: SELL day

Yesterday was a very weak BUY day. Any attempts to rally should meet selling. And, as per TTT, BUY day low violation is expected i.e, a fresh low in daily chart. I will be trading with my own signals. TTT is just for the guide.

 

[leovirgo]

Dow trading Live system signals

My system is generating live signals. I haven't automated them as yet. Results from back testing over the last three weeks were quite satisfactory. Here are the results from 8 June to 29 June:

Long Trades
==========

Total 16 trades

Winning Trades 11, Losing trades 5, BreakEven trades 0;

Max win points in a trade : 128. Max loss trade (-22);

Consecutive winning trades 5, consecutive losing trades 2;

Average win/trade 52 pts, average loss/trade 21.

Total win points 572, total loss points -104;

Net winning points = 468.

==========
Short Trades
==========

Winning Trades 19, Losing trades 16, BreakEven trades 10.

( BreakEven trades is triggered when the profits floor of 20 points was reached and then come back to EntryPrice ).

Max win points in a trade 123, max loss trade - 38;

Consecutive winning trades 7, max losing trades 3;

Average win/trade 33, average loss/trade 13.

Total win points 629, Total loss points 211;

Net Winning points 418;

TOTAL NET GAINS = 886.

Btw, I am not here to sell my system. This journal is for personal trading development. When I have the time, I will post detailed trades on my blog site
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Dow trading signals

Yesterday's system signals for YMU06 futures -

Monday closing Short 11280
Buy to cover and went Long 11202. ( + 78 pts )
Short 11197 ( - 5 pts )
Long 11210 ( - 17 pts )
Exit Long 11220 ( + 10 pts )
Short 11216 - BreakEven Exit on close.

Total 66 points gain.

See'em in picture at my personal blog site.
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[leovirgo]

Dow upside push

Trading YMU06 system signals for Thursday :

11243 Long
11268 Short ( +25 pts)
11288 Long ( -20 pts )
11308 Short ( +20 pts )
11298 Long ( + 10 pts )
11290 Short ( - 8 pts )
11284 Long ( + 6 pts )
11268 Short ( -16 pts )
111290 Long ( -22 pts )

TOTAL -5 pts LOSS.

Summary
=======
The early upside push was exhausted at 5pm. The momentum break out signals thereafter were not reliable.

So, I traded selectively and my P/L was +19 pts.


I did not take the short trade from 11308 but it was a runner. Max run up for +30 points.


Had I trade with SuperTrend...

Long 11243,
Exit 11282. ( + 39 points, Max run up 11320 = + 80 pts,)
Long 11298
Short 11290 ( - 8 pts )

 

[leovirgo]

Paint Bar system for DOW

I've been exploring TI tools available with TradeStation and they are amazing. They make my trading life a lot easier. I used to complain about TS not filling my orders ( I started a thread about it). Now TS is my favorite platform.

Dow signals for Friday
=================

Short 11160, max run up +20 pts but settled for break even.
Long 11160, Short exit at 11146. ( Loss -14 pts )
Short 11146, max run up + 80 pts, but out with Long entry at 11082 for 64pts profit.

Friday TOTAL GAINS = 50 pts.
=======================
Today Monday

Friday Long 11082, max run up today 11174 ( + 90pts ). Out with a Short signal at 11146 for 60+ pts.

Short signal at 11146....this entry is just PR_SS entry. It is not supported by PaintBar strategy.

Now, 60+ pts in the bag, with an open short position from 11146.

See my trades at my personal blog site
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/

 

[xcelwealth]

Don't just rely on TradeStation. You must keep other factors also in mind.

In case you missed it, CNBC on Friday signaled to the world that traditional investing is being ABANDONED and technical (trend) trading is taking over.

 

[leovirgo]

+150 points in the bag with DOW

Today saw a nice decline as a continuation of yesterday's Shortsale at 11146.

Dow fell as low as 11027. My exit was at 11035 for both of my shorts.

Then I got a Long signal at 11050 and 11055. Took two positions. It broke out of the lows and I scaled out half my position at 11070 for just 20pts. The rest I followed it all the way to 11115. Actually, it was my initial target and as soon as my analysis indicated further upside, I tried to remove my limit order but I was late for a few seconds before it was hit. The market went fast and my limit order was executed.

Anyway, .. it was a thoroughly good day, taking profits both ways.. ups and down.

TOTAL GAINS = 155 points

See my chart signals at personal blog site.
http://leovirgo-trading-diary.blogspot.com/