journal of trader formally known as wasp

[wasp]

Okay the 90% part is in it won't take me out immiediately. I'm not fortunate enough to have such a high win rate, what happens after an hour of the trade is different. Although I may not lose immediately, doesn't mean it won't lose further into the trade. I'd say my win rate is actually closer to 55-60%. This is fine by me as I am looking for 50-150 ideally from most trades.

As for recording why it went wrong or, why I chickened out, this is why I have started the journal and at the end of the day I'll post my chart and synopsis of what I did right or wrong until I'm consistently doing right by my plan and nothing else.

 

[dbphoenix]

Okay the 90% part is in it won't take me out immiediately. I'm not fortunate enough to have such a high win rate, what happens after an hour of the trade is different. Although I may not lose immediately, doesn't mean it won't lose further into the trade. I'd say my win rate is actually closer to 55-60%. This is fine by me as I am looking for 50-150 ideally from most trades.

As for recording why it went wrong or, why I chickened out, this is why I have started the journal and at the end of the day I'll post my chart and synopsis of what I did right or wrong until I'm consistently doing right by my plan and nothing else.

First, if your win rate is that low, you have every right to be concerned about your profit:loss ratio. This may account for a large part of your fear.

Second, it is vital that you record what's going through your head before the trade, during the execution, and throughout the trade rather than reviewing what you recall of what you were thinking at some later time, even if that time is only a few minutes later.

 

[wasp]

Morning DB,

I don't think my win rate % is a problem really. The ratio is fine as long as I don't jump ship too early as the size of the winners vs the losers enables for a good overall performance in profitability, month end.

I agree I should be constantly noting everything at the time and I do jot notes on the chart during the day as things progress, the end result at 8pm this evening will be all my notes summed up.

My problem is right NOW... I am long cable from 592 and its currently bouncing its head at 655. Now my system says stay in till 8pm or if it signals a reversal, exit and either finish or reverse depending if its before 3:30. My desire is to move the stop nice and tight to lock in profits regardless. Overall through tests, 8/10 will work out best if I stay in till the end (see 3 original charts) but as soon as this starts pulling back, paranoia will set in and I'll expect it to drop back to 600 area...

 

[dbphoenix]

All of which is another way of saying that you don't trust your plan. And the most likely reason for that is insufficient testing. There may also be problems with the plan itself, but since I don't know what it is, I can't speak to that.

In any case, if you're in this condition "now", and you're in a trade, I suggest that you exit immediately and regroup. Throwing money against the wall and hoping that it sticks will not likely accomplish much that is productive.

 

[martin90]

Hi Wasp

If I can add my thoughts.

I have a system which does produce good results if I follow it.
But fear often takes over and corrupts the system.

But I know take into account other systems to get my exit points.
Today I had an entry at 1.8630 and under normal condition I would be looking for 1.8720 to exit.
But
R1 using Pivot point comes in at 1.8661
and
Fib 61.8% form the May high at 8660-70.
I don't use either but lots of people do so exit on this trade was 1.8655.

 

[wasp]

Big pippin in the Alba thread. Whilst I don't really know his system, his pure unbiased determination to stick by his rules and acceptance that regardless of what happens, will be profitable in the long run is an inspiration. Sometimes there has been such kick in the teeth days that most would give up, he doesn't in which I find commendable.

Today I shall stick by my rules and this weekend I shall spend alot of time testing, comparing and checking until I am 200% convinced the current plan is the best action and so next week will see more discipline than I have ever managed before.

 

[barjon]

Morning DB,

I don't think my win rate % is a problem really. The ratio is fine as long as I don't jump ship too early as the size of the winners vs the losers enables for a good overall performance in profitability, month end.

I agree I should be constantly noting everything at the time and I do jot notes on the chart during the day as things progress, the end result at 8pm this evening will be all my notes summed up.

My problem is right NOW... I am long cable from 592 and its currently bouncing its head at 655. Now my system says stay in till 8pm or if it signals a reversal, exit and either finish or reverse depending if its before 3:30. My desire is to move the stop nice and tight to lock in profits regardless. Overall through tests, 8/10 will work out best if I stay in till the end (see 3 original charts) but as soon as this starts pulling back, paranoia will set in and I'll expect it to drop back to 600 area...

wasp

In these situations why not feed your fear a snack and close up the stop on half your position (as db suggested earlier I think) letting the rest run in accordance with your system. If your trading log shows the overall £ outcome from what you did and what the overall £ outcome would have been had you stuck to your system you will soon build up a history to tell you if your "off system" interventions are worth it or not. I doubt you would be able to do this via back-testing since you won't feel the fear.

Hope this is helpful.

good trading

jon

 

[wasp]

Discipline

Prevailed over all....

A decent day in all. I followed my rules to the letter and it worked out just fine and I can relax (a bit anyhow!)...

Pip amounts per side, discipline was followed and I'm happy...


Add- There were a couple of trades in the morning which both reveresd to breakeven-ish so not really important re: my issues.

 

[wasp]

All of which is another way of saying that you don't trust your plan. And the most likely reason for that is insufficient testing. There may also be problems with the plan itself, but since I don't know what it is, I can't speak to that.

In any case, if you're in this condition "now", and you're in a trade, I suggest that you exit immediately and regroup. Throwing money against the wall and hoping that it sticks will not likely accomplish much that is productive.

Ahh, it does work and I know it does but, I know there will be occasions where it will stop and drop (or rise) against me much quicker than my system can adjust to and its those trades I try (too hard) to protect.

Nothing works all the time and I am now trying to install in my mind that the good beat the bad which, a backtet of 20 years can prove in theory, its in practise thats the problem.

Next week I shall be trading the current plan to the letter and if the % is not in my favour, then I shall re study the plan, if it does work out better, hopefully I will keep to it from then on. In essence it is akin to throwing money against the wall but unless I try these things, how will I ever know?!

 

[dbphoenix]

Ahh, it does work and I know it does but, I know there will be occasions where it will stop and drop (or rise) against me much quicker than my system can adjust to and its those trades I try (too hard) to protect.

Nothing works all the time and I am now trying to install in my mind that the good beat the bad which, a backtet of 20 years can prove in theory, its in practise thats the problem.

Next week I shall be trading the current plan to the letter and if the % is not in my favour, then I shall re study the plan, if it does work out better, hopefully I will keep to it from then on. In essence it is akin to throwing money against the wall but unless I try these things, how will I ever know?!

Whether the 20 years' backtest is of value to your realtime trading is debatable. As to "unless I try these things, how will I ever know?", that's what the testing is all about. You should know by now, for example, what your biggest loss was and what your longest uninterrupted string of losers was. Without that, you are likely to lean too heavily on hope and, consequently, be vulnerable to doubt, anxiety, and fear.

All you should be "feeling" after entering a trade is curiosity.

 

[wasp]

All you should be "feeling" after entering a trade is curiosity.

And that, is just where I'm trying to get to.

I know all the stats, they are next to me at my desk. Despite that, until I have time actually trading real time with these rules and proving them with money on the line, I won't be at that stage. Hence the journal to help me keep on track, follow the rules and stick to them till the point that all I do "feel" is curious.

Thanks db...

Good weekend all...

 

[wasp]

pivot indicator

Something I've been loosely looking at has been the pivots and have downloaded an indicator via the metatrader forum to automatically plot and place them on my chart. Its not for the system just as curiousity to watch the reactions at these levels.

For some reason Monday doesn't work. anyone know how I can solve this?

 

[wasp]

hindsight sense

Sure they can be of use in real time too...

 

[wasp]

more lines than Clapham Junction

Where do you stop and which are relevant (real time)...

 

[wasp]

if only

a look at the ideal...

now, to do it in real time!

 

[wasp]

...trading intuitively is reliant on absolute understanding of the market...the players,the intent,the motives....this would also mean that you would possess the ability to write up perfect after market charts..and it would also follow that you would then be able to use future price and volume action as a confirming tool to what you understand the market to be revealing before you.so pure intuition is a very high order to achieve....this is not to be confused with guessing and having a hunch.

you ever here newbie traders say...."i just felt that trade...had a gut feeling and went with it"...when what they meant to say was "actually i havnt a clue but it makes me feel good to say i had a gut feeling and i havnt the discipline to sit on my hands when i dont understand the market....which actually nearly always til i lose my sorry **** attitude"...or something like that the worse thing can happen is the trade comes off...they then wrongly connect the guess with the outcome....and build the pride barrier even higher ...so the attitude worsens til they blow their whole account.....cause they doubled up on their gut feeling on their expanding pride.if you cant explain why you took a trade you shouldn't be anywhere near it...


to add...those who say its not possible to forward project accurately and belie this to be a foolish learning target...dont understand whats been...it follows perfectly....you can mark up 1000s of charts after the event..which is absolutely pointless if you have no idea what you trying to convey.the only thing you achieve is a sense of self importance...i promised myself i wouldn't mark another line on my chart when i was learning...or post any charts until i understood every nuance i was portraying....you can only kid yourself and those who also dont understand.until traders can be brutally honest with themselves then progress is impossible.no mentor can teach you to be honest.these are the qualities which a mentor should look for in a potential student.honesty,humility,endeavour,respect,open mindedness and ultimately self responsibility....without these qualities intelligence means nothing...

cheers mark j

Every now and then, a post makes more sense than anything read on this site before...

 

[firewalker99]

Third, assuming you're entering where you're supposed to, consider covering part of your trade at that point where your stomach starts to knot itself, putting the remainder of your trade at the breakeven (BE) point. That way, no matter what, you can't lose. Then, if there's a continuation (which occurred with your first two charts), you can re-enter. Granted this all sounds fine in hindsight, but if you know what to look for, and you're able to recognize it in real time, this simple tweak should enable you to turn the corner. Or at least angle in that direction.

Db

I try to enter a trade with three contracts. Of course it depends on the volatility of the moment and the probability of my entry. Then I place one fixed target at 2 times the ATR, another at 3 times and the last one I only exit when I see signs indicating the end of the move. From the moment my first one reaches it's target, I change the remainder stop at breakeven.

Does this seem too conservative?

I've experienced I've often lost a trade because my stop was too tight. How do you guys place a stop? A mental stop? A fixed stop? I use the average true range and depending on how high it is, I buy less contracts. If ATR is low, I buy more. Lately I've not been buying a lot because I've experienced quite a bit of losses so it's back to papertrading for me.

 

[firewalker99]

First, if your win rate is that low, you have every right to be concerned about your profit:loss ratio. This may account for a large part of your fear.

.

So you find 50-60% "that low"? I'm not aiming at specific target, but personally I'd be happy with a 60% win rate, because for the moment it's nowhere near that.

I do think that the % matters less if you take in account the risk:reward ratio. Somebody who uses a risk:reward of 1:5 can be happy with 30% good trades in my opinion, if and if losses are cut short. Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm only hear to learn. And learning is still what I have to do a lot.

 

[dbphoenix]

Journal etiquette suggests that I ask wasp's permission to answer these questions here. If they don't pertain to wasp specifically, transfer the questions to your own journal and I'll be happy to comment on them there.

Db

 

[wasp]

It would probably be easier to transfer them over to Firewalkers thread (his original and your corresponding answers) but ther is no rush and for convenience, feel free to answer here upon this thread for now dp, I'll probably lean a few things too! (PS thanks for asking)

Cheers