Jay's Journal

[jasont]

Nine, thanks for explaining those. From the sounds of it the tick sizes are similar to the S&P ticks sizes which is good. I trade mainly price as well and use volume to hide stops behind. The reason I like to have the Tick is that it lets me know when the Futures are more excited or depressed than the stocks they represent or vice versa. It also provides me with some back up when I see the market has gone too high or too low in the short term. It provides me with the confidence to fade the move.

Db you are too kind. Thanks for the great feedback and I do hope it can help anyone in their beginning stages of trading.

As for the S&R zones, the first thing I will say is that they are 95% governed by last traded prices. I don't like saying there is support or resistance at a price that is yet to be traded, some people use Pivots for that etc but I dislike doing it.

The first thing I usually do is get heavy traded areas from the most recent trading day and record them. That is done by using the order bar histogram that tells me how many times each price was traded. You usually get dips and rises in those prices. It just tells me that there is something interesting around that area and that to get through it would take a fair bit of strength. The reason it would take strength is because people will be either long or short in those areas with open positions still.

The next thing I do is calculate pivot points on the past day's high, low and close price. I get about 3 pivots for support and 3 for resistance. I record these numbers like I do the heavy traded prices, these are not just made S&R zones.

I then draw up some Fibonacci lines for the past day and month etc. They are also recorded and not just made as S&R zones.

After all this I then look through the previous day's chart and see where people are likely to be stuck in open positions. This tends to be the more art orientated side of it than science. An example of people stuck would be that the market was downtrending most of the day and then suddenly snapped up and continued up. The last people shorting the market would be stuck and if they haven't placed a stop order in the market they would be waiting to get out somewhere.

Human nature has people commonly holding on to positions waiting for break even. The next time the price reaches that area, the people short buy back their positions to hit break even and cause the market to bounce. How many people are looking at that area usually determines whether it holds or breaks after the initial bounce.

So I find these areas where people are likely to be stuck and see if the price matches any of my heavy traded prices, Fib levels, Pivots etc. I also see if they have formed patterns that represent the people stuck such as double tops, 1-2-3 tops or bottoms, rolling upward or downward trends etc.

There is more weight given to those that have more things line up to make it an area, some are pretty weak, others are pretty strong. As I have said in the past though, I don't use these areas as automatic brakes on the market. They are guides like the EMA's I have on my charts. They simply point out an area for me to pay close attention to something possibly changing. If the market has been going down and is close to my support area, I won't just throw an order in, I'm not confident enough in my areas to do so. I will however watch that area and see if the back and forth movement around there tips me off that the market is having trouble going lower. It's not really a science.

 

[dbphoenix]

Thank you, Jay. Question. Might your nervousness about taking trades have anything to do with conflicts amongst all the indicators you use?

 

[jasont]

Hey Db,

The indicators I use to find S&R are not used for my trading. I get the S&R zones from the indicators, place lines on my charts and that is it. In fact the only indicators I have is two EMA lines on each chart.

My actual trading method is very basic and I don't actually use indicators to make my decisions. I use them to place my stops behind or add weight to my trade ideas. In fact they never really are a reason for me to trade or not to trade. It is a bit difficult for me to explain but I watch the price closely and when something isn't right, I look for areas to place my stop behind.

I think there is a chart image on the first page of this journal that has a screen cap from a trade I made last week. It shows how my trade screen looks in regards to charts and the NYSE Tick. I will post more up as I make trades.

 

[dbphoenix]

I understand. Even so, that's a lot to have on your chart. If none of it presents a problem, that's fine. However, if you continue to have problems pulling the trigger, at least consider the possibility that you have too much to look at.

One other thing I meant to mention had to do with your trading platform. If you can't depend on it, find something else. And given how simple your setup is (mine is even simpler), there's no need for you to spend more than the minimum for charting. Look at least into Sierra Charts. Since you like to review your trades, you'll appreciate their replay capability.

 

[jasont]

12th March Trading

Here is what went on for the 12th March... not one of my better days for trading:

15 minutes before the open and we look like we will open roughly at yesterdays close. I have been a bit nervous leading up to the open and I think it is due to me opening up the gate to place some trades. By allowing myself to trade, conservatively by the way, I somehow feel obligated to trade and I know that is a big contributor to poor trading. It takes the focus away from the charts and to the P&L which in my experience has always been a big no no.

Just to confirm it to myself, I don't have to place any trades. In fact no trades may present themselves whilst I am watching the market today. The market will tell me if there are trades, I will not attempt to tell the market what it should do to please my position. The focus is on the markets and to stay curious as to what it's next move will be. I look forward to seeing what happens at the open and am interested in whether we continue this bullish run from yesterday.

I'm not feeling tired today which is a good sign that my conditioning is working. Of course give it an hour or so and I may be feeling a bit drowsy so I'll keep monitoring my sleepiness factor. Although I am a bit nervous I will say I feel good. As long as I can maintain my focus I will be in the game. Babbling on a bit now waiting for the market to open. Is there such a thing as over prepared where you are early to the market and just waiting for the guys at the stock exchange to ring their little bell and sign the board?

9:30 Here we go, opening right at the first resistance point. There is initial weakness but right now it's anyones game. Sometimes I think we have been going down for so long lately, have I forgotten what the market looked like when it went up consistently. Although my Resistance was right there I don't like trading right on the bell as it is too unpredictable. Thanks to the big day yesterday my charts are showing small bars again. I think I'll need glasses soon hehe.

9:34 Right now it's hard for me to judge where we are going. Market has switched from an initial down move to a higher run. I find it unusual off the open after we had the big move yesterday. I thought we may have seen some early weakness to settle out the excitement from yesterday.

9:38 Stocks don't seem to be taking much direction at the moment according to the Tick. No clear buying or selling going on which seems to fit right in with the hesitation we are seeing. I think many people are waiting to follow some sort of trend right now but no one wants to make the first move.

9:41 I didn't mention 1315 as a support area but I think it might serve as a bit of a stall should the market get down there. I didn't find it strong enough to make it a support area though so it will be interesting to see what it does down there. Finally we have the decision and it is to move down. Will this be the start of a slow downward grind or just a sharp pullback before moving higher?

9:44 It would seem my first resistance zone didn't provide any more than a very quick and short period of selling before breaking through it. I guess that's why I don't place orders before the market reaches that area.

9:46 Some heavy buyers have orders in around 1320, stacking the orders. Market is slowing down there but not sure if it is strong enough to hold. Won't suprise me if we see the orders disappear soon.

9:48 Hehe there they go. Seems this downward move has some guts behind it as bids of 2400 that weren't budging initially are being moved.

9:52 Just got an email informing me the contracts roll over tomorrow at 8.30am. Glad I got the email otherwise I wouldn't have known. Usually I'm pretty informed on these things.

9:53 Tick is beginning to show the selling is increasing but getting to the point of exaggerated. This early on I don't think I'd like to bet on the Tick as stocks are probably still trying to sort themselves out.

10:02 Ok so far it seems we are looking to push lower and shorting the bounces is the better odds trade. Just missed an opportunity whilst getting a coffee, not sure I would have traded it though as the pullback was more of a slide than a bounce. They are usually the ones I miss because I am waiting for a bigger pullback to eventuate.

10:05 First EMA didn't seem to be of any interest just yet so this downward leg maybe pulling some weight.

10:07 Coming into the 1315 zone it would seem we are seeing some action trying to stall it from going lower. Maybe it is more important than I have given it credit for?

10:13 Pretty slow market thus far. I guess you couldn't really expect much more after what we saw yesterday. I'm not pushing for trades and none are presenting themselves at this stage. Good signs of my patience right now.

10:18 Market seems to be slowing here at 1319 area. Fark I placed an order just as the data stream began lagging behind. I went short at 1319 and got stopped out at 1320.50. I was trading off the 2 minute chart instead of the 5 minute chart. Silly mistake to get caught up in the market action of the 2 minute looking for a move in such a busy time frame. Disconnected and reconnected the data stream and it's ok now. Just hard to judge the screen when it is like that.

10:23 Time to regroup and make sure no revenge trades are made. A simple loss that is part of the market. I am now sitting here looking for the next opportunity to get in. I keep thinking this same move is bound to do what I think it should. I am going to deliberately miss the next move just so I know I'm not trying to revenge trade a position on a move I thought should have occurred.

10:27 Well here it is, the move I was about a point too early for. Not to worry, the upside is that I picked the right sentiment, just turns out it was at the wrong time and poor data stream didn't give me enough time to get out sooner. You know a poor entry when you enter and about 20 seconds later your hard stop is hit.

10:29 Right now I'm not too sure what this market is doing. I feel a bit out of touch with it as no definite moves are being made. Very unsure market I am seeing right now. Usually this would lead to some good opportunities but I find it too slow. Going to take a 10 minute break to adjust my focus.

10:40 Ok I have been able to better assess my situation and feel much better. I realized my trade was entered a bit pre-maturely due to a fear of missing out. There is that obligation to trade coming back to haunt me. It doesn't mean there is something wrong with me or that it makes me a bad trader, it is just a loss and something to learn from. Really the money side of it doesn't bother me as much as the impatience bothers me. At least I am now aware of it and can work on it.

10:43 Since I have been gone we have seen the market turn around and begin an upward move. It doesn't look particularly strong to me but it's a bit early to say it won't last.

10:46 Well I seem to like going against the trend and I think today may not be a day for me to trade. I placed an order in at 1323.50 because I saw a Tick Divergence and placed my stop at 1325. Market went against me and I placed an order to get out with a 1 tick loss at 1323.75 and was taken. I'm really not assessing this market in the same light as I usually do. I think I will refrain from placing any more trades today and just watch the market. I definitely am not in the right frame of mind. Something is distorting my view. I was right to get out of my position but am just puzzled at my lack of clarity with what I am seeing.

10:50 I truly am just looking at this market and feel puzzled. It's like being in a conversation with someone and not being able to pick up that they are bored with what is being said. You just keep talking and at the end of it you think, gee that wasn't a good conversation. Every hesitation I am seeing in the market right now I am interpreting as the next big change of direction. It seems I am looking for something in the market that just isn't there.

10:53 Looking at my orders it seems I haven't even recognized that we are uptrending right now. I have tried shorting twice on an uptrending move. obviously it isn't the best idea.

10:59 I have shifted back into simulation trading just to air out some trading and see if I am looking at the market distortedly. Placed a short trade at 1324.50 with a stop at 1326.50 and after some time it was hit. I had plenty of opportunity to get out early but didn't do so. I think I have my culprit right there, my trading mentality is not right for today. At least I know the trading of my own funds isn't what is affecting my judgment. It seems that I just can't make sense of what is being shown today and when that occurs it puts a damper on my trading.

11:02 The most common time I lose money in the markets is during trending markets right now. That is exactly what we have seen since 10:15 and I have been trying to short the market during that time. Something that definitely needs to be addressed. As I look at it now, it is a slow upward grind and those types of moves are hard to find the weak points in. The Tick becomes less effective as usually oversold signs become nothing more than stalls in the market like we are seeing now. Right now it would be silly to short anything.

11:07 Hitting the 1329 resistance right now, I think it may struggle to push through it but my thoughts are hazy at best tonight for some reason. I think I will call it a night and aim to assess things better tomorrow.

The Wrap Up

Well I guess on a day when your not trading like you normally do, the up side is that you have something to learn from. From the start of the day I didn't feel quite right and couldn't get myself into the zone. Normally I can take a few minutes of particular breathing and things seem to slow down for me and I can make assessments of what was going on. Today I just couldn't find that place. Clue number one to be cautious with my trading.

The second thing that should have tipped me off was that I was looking at the 2 minute chart for a trade. It sits to the right of my 5 and 13 minute chart just to help me determine how strong a trending move is. Looking at the 2 minute chart for a trade is generally a tip off I am getting either bored or frustrated without placing a trade. That usually means I'm looking for trades which is a big no no.

The third thing that usually provides an obvious clue was that I was looking for a place to short the market. That is when the bearish blinders come on and placing a long position doesn't even enter my mind. Right there I reduce my odds, if they are normally 80% of placing a winning trade, they automatically go down to 40% because the other 40% which would be long trades, is taken out. I know Math heads wouldn't agree with my high tech calculations but that is the way I see it.

So after all that I don't think beating myself up over a bad trade is going to solve anything. The first trade was the bad one, it was placed on the first up candle after a down trending move and the only thing going for it was Tick divergence. It didn't even have an extreme of buying prior to that. Lessons will be repeated until they stick like glue. No short entries on the first up candle after a downward move. They are the trades I take when I feel like I will miss out on a trade.

The second trade was not such a bad trade. There was an extreme in buying with the market and we were hitting an area where buyers would be stuck from the open. The market moved my direction for a couple of ticks initially but then showed it wasn't ready to come down. I managed to recognize the lack of strength from sellers and took my position out before it became a bigger loss. I actually think my management on that trade was pretty good.

So after all that I can say the day was a loss of 1.75 points but could have been worse. I was happy I didn't place any revenge trades after my first loss and was proud that I could walk away from the screen and regroup. A little further work on my mental states during trading is my focus for the next trading day as well as refusing to enter short trades on the first up candle after a down trend and vice versa.

I'm not fussed about the loss of trading capital as it is pretty minute. I was disappointed in my not so crash hot trading decision however that gives me something to focus on for tomorrow. It's a one day at a time affair right now and the next trading day has nothing to do with the previous day's trading.

 

[jasont]

I understand. Even so, that's a lot to have on your chart. If none of it presents a problem, that's fine. However, if you continue to have problems pulling the trigger, at least consider the possibility that you have too much to look at.

One other thing I meant to mention had to do with your trading platform. If you can't depend on it, find something else. And given how simple your setup is (mine is even simpler), there's no need for you to spend more than the minimum for charting. Look at least into Sierra Charts. Since you like to review your trades, you'll appreciate their replay capability.

Hey Db,

Thanks for your continued support and advice. I definitely know what you mean about having too much on my chart however for me the support and resistance lines as well as a couple of EMA's doesn't seem to distract me. I had the same setup whilst trading through simulation and it wasn't putting me in a limbo of confusion.

The reason that trading with my own funds has me hesitating before pulling the trigger is because it shifts my mindset from trading the charts to trading the P&L. I think the only thing that can overcome that will be desensitizing myself to having money in the market. That doesn't mean removing emotions from the market but more so getting used to placing trades with my funds on the line. I'm a firm believer that our emotions can do more to help us in our trading than hinder us.

You make a valid point about changing trading platforms should I find it unreliable. Trade Navigator is quite good in my opinion and can occasionally lag when there is heavy trading going on. I'm not sure if that is due to the data stream or the platform but when I disconnect and reconnect I no longer have an issue. Unfortunately in cases like yesterday it didn't allow me a chance to assess the situation quick enough to exit before my hard stop was hit. However I probably wouldn't have been quick enough to get out anyhow as my entry was pretty poor.

I am willing to keep an open mind though should it become a continuing problem. I looked at Sierra Charts a while back and can't remember why I didn't choose to go with them. I think I was a bit confused with it. Thanks Db.

 

[jasont]

13th March Setup

Here are the zones I'm watching for the 13th March:

Resistance

1313.75-1314
1319.50-1320.50
1328-1328.75
1336.25

Support

1310.25-1310
1302.50-1302
1296-1295.25
1288.75-1288.25

As we have rolled over to the June contract I will need to be cautious of the S&R zones. I have got the levels from the June contract so it means that I won't have my past levels to rely on. Usually a few days is needed to get the levels properly sorted as well.

Now the focus for today is on watching the market. Identifying whether we are in a trending or ranging market is top priority and to be open to either long or short moves. My outlook for today is that we may see some ranging moves coming into play but rather extended ones.

It would seem the volatility has opened up a bit so being cautious about entering too early is important. The rejection from yesterday may carry into today and produce a downward bias. I will keep an open mind and be ready to go with a long market should my initial thoughts be wrong.

Side Note: Thanks goes out to all those who gave me a high ranking for my journal. It does look a lot happier now hehe.

 

[dbphoenix]

If the money is an issue, consider trading the SPY. I know that was suggested earlier and you chose not to pursue that idea because you didn't want to have to get used to something new. But you don't have to. Odd as it may sound, you can "trade" the ES but enter your trades on the SPY. Unless you're scalping, there won't be enough difference to matter.

Also, since our approaches have some similarities, you may be interested in these charts: Traders Laboratory - View Single Post - Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

 

[jasont]

Hey Db,

I think money was an issue with my original posting when I was trading a bigger size but after someone gave the advice to drop it down to one contract until I have my trading consistent, it hasn't really impacted my trading decisions. My trading yesterday which resulted in a loss didn't really affect me in regards to the money value, more so the hiccup in my performance was what had me frustrated.

Those charts are very interesting and I can see the relation between your style and mine. I see you trade a faster time frame, do you scalp the market or do you have trades held for long periods of time? When I trade my two lot I tend to scalp the first half at a place the market should reach even if it isn't going to change direction in a major way, then I trail the remainder. Right now I am just scalping the market with my one lot until I get used to having the orders in there. Generally my trades last a few minutes and if they haven't gone anywhere I scratch them.

 

[dbphoenix]

No, I don't scalp. I'm no good at it. I buy support and sell resistance unless there's some unavoidable reversal signal inbetween, though I'll sometimes sell half as well. But if you're trading one contract, you're correct to trade as if it were the first half. Then simtrade the "second half".

 

[jasont]

Thanks for your valuable help and insights Db. I am currently reading a thread of yours over at Traders Laboratory about Price Action. It is a very good read and I think we may have a more similar view to trading than I first thought.

 

[dbphoenix]

I also have a blog there that contains a bunch of stuff on trading by price. Most of it is available in pdf form if something catches your attention.

 

[nine]

He has a private group here too jason that has excellent material in it both from dbphoenix and from people who've gained from his material. Its called Mapping the Territory. It certainly helped me to go from a price and ema guy to a price, emas, s&r, and volume guy - with a pleasant improvement in my profitability. Send him an email and I'm (almost) certain he'll invite you in.

Right dbphoenix?

 

[dbphoenix]

Unfortunately, there's not that much interest in it here, which is why I've moved the gist of it to Traders Laboratory. The "private group" here is essentially a library, which is fine but pretty dull. Journals are far more dynamic. Or can be.

 

[a_gnome]

Hi Jay,

I'm enjoying your journal (and gave it a 5 start rating to boot!).

DbPhoenix's comment on the SPY was what I was meaning when I suggested it earlier on: look for signals on the ES but take the position in the SPY but you seem to be happy with the trade size now anyway.

I found this on DbP's blog on TradersLab which I though you might be interested in as you seem to be having problems on these trending market days:

Traders must understand the characteristics of a trend day, even if interested only in intraday scalping. A trader anticipating a trend day should change strategies, from trading off support/resistance . . . to using a breakout methodology and being flexible enough to buy strength or sell weakness. A trader caught off guard will often experience his largest losses on a trend day as he tries to sell strength or buy weakness prematurely. Because there are few intraday retracements, small losses can easily get out of hand. The worst catastrophes come from trying to average losing trades on trend days.

Raschke

Hope this helps!

 

[dbphoenix]

Perhaps one reason why people have trouble on trend days is that they get freaked by that midday sideways movement. Once the trendline is broken, they head for the exits. However, on a trend day, that sideways movement is nothing more than a pause. If one views the movement as just a respite and monitors the trading activity, which should be relatively quiet, then he will be in the trade when it resumes the move.

If one is trading two or more contracts, he can ease the pressure by selling half at the first "reversal signal" and hold the other at BE until the other end of the range is reached or the day is over. However, if he's trading only one, he pretty much has to sell when he gets what he's defined as a reversal signal. Otherwise he may find that that supposed reversal signal really is a reversal signal and he just sits there watching as all his profits evaporate.

Therefore, as I posted earlier, trade the one contract for real and trade another on paper. This keeps you in front of the screen and monitoring the action even though you're technically not a part of it. Then when you reach the point where you're ready for multiple contracts, the transition may not be so abrupt.

 

[jasont]

Wow so much feedback since I last visited the thread. Thanks for everyones input I really appreciate it.

Db I'll check out your blog tomorrow when I have some time to have a good read. I am going to stick with your advice in regards to the one contract. I set a profit target for it as soon as I enter the market and will move it should I see reason to do so according to the price action.

Nine Thanks for the heads up on Db's private group. I guess I'm a little late though as he mentioned with it being quiet. I appreciate the recommendation. It seems you trade the same elements as me with the Price, S&R, EMA's and Volume.

Gnome Thanks for the injection into the stars department hehe. Thanks for the great quote by Linda Raschke. It is exactly what I need to find for trending days like we saw yesterday. It is in fact the one area that cuts me up most of the time.

I do look for counter trend moves to enter with the trend when we have trending days but I commonly tend to misjudge the length of pullbacks with them. Sometimes I put in orders too late, other times I put them in too early. I try to get them as they round off so that I can minimize my risk by placing my stop above the roll over. I tend to dislike breakout trading even when I know I should do it because it increases my risk in the market.

 

[dbphoenix]

Gnome Thanks for the injection into the stars department hehe.

If you didn't notice the owner's announcement, the blogs apparently are finally going to have full functionality. I suggested this Journals Forum a year ago because the blogs didn't have it. And there are disadvantages to the Here I Am nature of a public forum, such as that idiotic ratings option (who the hell has the right to give a poor rating to somebody else's journal, esp when they don't have to record their names).

So you may want to move everything over once that change is made. If not, just put whoever gives you any crap on Ignore.

 

[jasont]

13th March Trading

Here is the notes during my trading for the 13th March:

Currently 8 minutes until the open and we are going to have a substantial gap down it would seem. It looks like the whole overnight trade has been steadily moving down and we have plateaued towards the open. There is a few reports that came out at 8.30 am and one was the retail sales that declined. Not sure what impact that will have on the market once it opens but it would seem it had an initial drop right afterwards. I guess I'll just keep my eye on the action and look for some obvious direction to come out.

9:31 Have an open just below the 1295 support area and it came up and touched that area. Initially rejected but we'll have to see if it becomes a strong resistance area. YM opened over 100 points down, NQ about 20 points down.

9:34 This isn't the sort of market I would want to be jumping into early. Such a big gap down has me being very weary at this stage. It would be wishful thinking to expect the ES to close the 20 point gap but anything is possible. Pretty volatile market right now, best to sit on the sidelines until things calm down a bit and take direction.

9:38 Stocks are showing some negative sentiment via the Tick at the moment. They don't seem to be opening and hitting the asks as much as hitting the bids. Interesting observation is that the NQ seems to be leading the ES right now.

9:50 Took a quick bathroom break and it seems we bounced right off that 1288.25 support zone. Stocks don't appear as enthusiastic to be making gains so this may be a short lived bounce. Granted a push toward the 1300 area wouldn't entirely surprise me after such a big gap down.

9:55 Right now the action seems pretty choppy to me with a fight going on for direction. Trying to enter the market in this is a quick way for people with tight stops to be minced... hence why I'm not particularly eager to place any trades for the moment.

9:59 Could we be seeing a bounce here? The market looks like it refuses to push lower and the Tick looks like it wants to move higher. I may be way off here so I'll keep watching but I sense the market wants some buying. Possibly short term but who knows.

10:02 There she goes for a small rise. It may be short lived but right now it is battling for higher ground. i wouldn't have attempted to trade that move as it was a very risky one. Still no clear direction has been established in my opinion just yet so it's a wait and see market. I'm definitely in no hurry.

10:05 How odd, I just had a look at yesterday and today seems to be quite similar up until this point. An initial short run down followed by a bounce. The one yesterday turned out to be a long slow grind that didn't provide much in the way of pullbacks. It also caught me out trying to short it as I looked for a slinky type move. I'll have more patience today.

10:12 Hitting close to the opening highs right now and the 1295 resistance area that was previously support. Big rejection on the tick but I get the feeling it won't turn this around just yet.

10:16 I may be wrong, this may turn out to be the turnaround point right here. I'm still not convinced either way and will stay out until I see a strong move in either direction.

10:23 Ok so we have a decent move on the downside that may produce some direction for the market. Unless of course it decides to stick in the current range it's in. From the look of the move though it does have some guts behind it.

10:30 Looks like this range may stick, I get the feeling we may see a good push higher from here.

10:33 I seem to be lacking confidence in my market analysis right now. I think my judgment yesterday put a dent in my beliefs about my trading.

10:37 We have the break beneath the range. The market doesn't seem to be making strong moves right now. Every move seems to be a struggle and difficult to muster the herd to follow.

10:40 I'm going to put my balls on the line here and say we are looking like we are building up for a big up move in the short term at the moment. Things aren't fitting right. This down move is pathetic and lacking follow through. The Tick is showing increasing strength from the stocks and it seems like it will only be a matter of time until something gives.

10:43 Right now we are seeing a couple of down bars followed by an up bar or two and then more down bars. Hence right now I am staying out of the market because it doesn't suit my plan. I am waiting for some decision to be made and then let it tell me when opportunities arise.

10:45 Am I getting caught out in the same problem as yesterday? Am I failing to see the slow trend that has developed. Instead of looking at both sides of the coin I have been looking for the market to bounce. The obvious trend right now is down... maybe that is why I don't like it. It's too obvious. I think people are getting sucked in on a slow downtrend until the market bounces with some gusto.

10:48 Playing jump rope isn't fun when the people spinning the rope are doing it so quick that you can't find a good place to jump in. That is the way this market feels right now. It is slow and without strong moves so it keeps my plan from being effective.

10:50 Time to check up on some other work whilst I wait for this market to pick up a bit.

10:58 Man this market is painful today. It reminds me a bit of yesterday where decisive moves were slow and strained. It's days like today that I need to be mindful of my plan and making sure impulse trades aren't made out of boredom. We are seeing a bit of a move higher but it surely wasn't the big move I was thinking we would see.

11:06 Well it seems I'm not losing my touch. There is that balls on a plate, up move I thought was coming. Just unfortunate I didn't have enough balls to place a trade for it. I don't think I would have held out that long had I entered around the 1285.50 area anyway. It took way too long to get to the point it is at now. That's a real confidence boost after yesterday when I thought my ability to read the subtleties of the market had diminished.

11:19 Posting in the forum had me miss out on the opportunity to short the latest rejection from my 1302.50 support turned resistance area. From the look of the rejection it may form at least a temporary top but possibly permanent top for the day.

11:23 Well I certainly underestimated this run higher. Seems like it has some good strength behind it. There goes my so called top for the day.

11:29 Time to call it a day. No trades placed which is disappointing. Market finally looks like it picked up momentum but I'm too tired to stay longer waiting for a decent trade opportunity. Not to worry, at least I know I can watch the market and don't feel obliged to place trades in a slow moving one.

The Wrap Up

I'm finding it hard right now to find words for how I feel about yesterday's trading day. I can't figure out whether it was the slow moving market keeping me out of trading or the dent in my confidence left by the lack of good judgment the day before. Granted I was switched on enough to connect the dots and see the downward move from the open was weak but I think I went a bit too far.

What I mean by that is instead of just connecting the dots and patiently waiting for what I was informed was happening, I went further and tried to force the issue in my mind. By making a claim like I did, I was locking myself out of any possible down move that could have evolved. I need to play both sides of the fence but have an idea bias towards what the evidence is telling me.

I feel like I lacked confidence and after the first hour my concentration diminished. Watching the slow market for an hour had me itching to do something which eventuated in me occupying myself with other things. What I can't figure out is if this was a good idea or not. On one hand I kept myself from trading a market that could have encouraged me to place an impulse trade. On the other hand it resulted in me missing the minute details that tip me off to a trade.

There is a distinct difference in my states of mind when I trade well and when I trade poorly. When I place unachievable pressure on myself to perform it results in me over analyzing what I am doing and taking the focus from the task and placing it on myself. When I play sport if I think to myself during the game, "don't screw up" well you can bet your dollar that I will fumble, mishandle and take too long to do things. However when I have a feeling of "who cares?" I manage to pull off the best games I could possibly produce. Everything seems to just work out.

So this brings me to an important question in my trading, should I be putting myself in a frame of mind such as "who cares?" instead of "you better perform"? If so, I need to figure out how to achieve that state of mind before trading.

All in all, I'm glad I stayed out of the market yesterday even though it did pick up in the last hour of my trading day. Discipline is important and when the market isn't moving the way I'd like to see it, I'm best waiting on the sidelines until it makes sense.

 

[jasont]

If you didn't notice the owner's announcement, the blogs apparently are finally going to have full functionality. I suggested this Journals Forum a year ago because the blogs didn't have it. And there are disadvantages to the Here I Am nature of a public forum, such as that idiotic ratings option (who the hell has the right to give a poor rating to somebody else's journal, esp when they don't have to record their names).

So you may want to move everything over once that change is made. If not, just put whoever gives you any crap on Ignore.

Thanks Db. I'll keep that in mind and possibly move it over once it is ready and running. It would be helpful having more control over the journal.