It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Good morning team

As expected Indices have continued their respective falls. Oil is back down at 62.72 and continues to look weak. On the back of that the USD will likely remain supported until we see the Indices find support.

CABLE
• Daily, 4hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking to either add to a short or get short on a trend reversal.
• 1.6057 is the low from yesterday so a break through here would push us down towards the 1.6000 level which is bound to hold a little support.
• You can play this break with a very tight stop above the 57 level but make sure the short term CCI´s are not too oversold at the time of entry.
• Technically I would like to see a pullback this morning back up to the DP or just above at 1.6205
• From here I would then be looking for a lower high to confirm a double top before another push lower again.
• Everything is positioned in the red and therefore trying to play the retracement up for a few pips will be difficult.
• For me it could be a patient morning for CABLE and wait for the 60min trend to change before I even tempt going long.
• Verdict is still to wait for the double top and trade with the trend again.

EURUSD
• Daily, 4 hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking for a short play through the respective support levels.
• Key support is at 1.3876 and we should look for a break through here for further downside potential
• As it stands the USD could go either way this am and with higher highs on the 15min chart I would like to see a change in direction with a double top before a short play (with trend) back down to support at 1.3876

JPY´s
• With USDJPY finally falling..(How long did that take!!!) EURJPY and GBPJPY have had the confidence to go with.
• They are bother slightly oversold and would like a small pullback (same as CABLE & EURUSD) before continuing their downtrends.
• Would like to see GBPJPY back towards the 153.20 region and EURJPY back to the 132.00 area.
• Remember to use the triggers to your advantage here and look for double tops on the short term charts to confirm trend reversals.

Verdict
• If you want to trade with the trend this morning then patience is needed.
• We are up a lot of pips this week, so let’s not get too greedy with trading against the trend.


Dan

 

[danarm]

Its as quiet as a snail in a shoe box today...

Go and have fun.

See u tom.

D

 

[jel31]

Its as quiet as a snail in a shoe box today...

Go and have fun.

See u tom.

D

Sounds like a good idea Dan, like watching the cricket...

There was a stream of people carrying cooler boxes past my window this morning, cricket is such a civilised spectator sport isn't it?

I heard some nonce on the radio this morning (might have been Radio One, so that explains it) saying that we Welsh would be supporting the Aussies. What a load of rubbish! It's the England and Wales Cricket Board, if you are Welsh you play for England (try explaining that to a foreigner) and the Aussies are an uncouth lot after all...

Don't listen to any of the nay-sayers, Cardiff is a great setting for the 1st Test. Lord's is a lovely ground though, I once got a great view of Simon Jones' bum through an open changing room window years ago. Innovative use of my mate's binos I'd say, although I missed a couple of sixes.

Digressing again, people will think us girls only watch sport for one reason, eh Fran? Back me up here...

Have a good one and see you in the morning

Julie

 

[Tenapenny]

"Digressing again, people will think us girls only watch sport for one reason, eh Fran? Back me up here..."

Don't dig that hole any deeper Julie!

Ken

 

[Rollingstone]

"Digressing again, people will think us girls only watch sport for one reason, eh Fran? Back me up here..."

Don't dig that hole any deeper Julie!

Ken

Hi Ken

I think us girls are very appreciative of all aspects and vistas sport has to offer. Julie and I are very broad minded and knowledgeable in the most important areas, do our research thoroughly and know exactly when to cheer enthusiastically and where to point the binoculars.

RS

PS Yes Julie, almost full-time, moonlighting at weekends but Mon-Thurs free for trading. Wooooooo hoooooooo. :clap:

 

[Tenapenny]

Hi Ken

I think us girls are very appreciative of all aspects and vistas sport has to offer. Julie and I are very broad minded and knowledgeable in the most important areas, do our research thoroughly and know exactly when to cheer enthusiastically and where to point the binoculars.

RS

PS Yes Julie, almost full-time, moonlighting at weekends but Mon-Thurs free for trading. Wooooooo hoooooooo. :clap:

I understand.

Have a great day.

Ken

 

[Rollingstone]

Human Shield

Been trading now for 4 months, all of that time has been with The FX500 club.

Today I have come to the realisation that trading Forex is like crossing a mine field in order to reach a pot of gold. It's great to being shielded by Dan, James and Zak. If you're gonna cross a mine field you're better off following in someone elses foot step.

Great job Chaps!!!!

Absolutely right.

And what a great shield Dan makes, all the right proportions (all those crumpets).

RS

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Great to see the thread alive and well...

Keep it up as i get bored talking to myself.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Pip Avalanche

Oh gosh, look at EURJPY go, over 300 pips in 1.5 hours, that wasn't in the script was it? Hope some of you caught it, I didn't, wasn't watching.

Pipless RS

Maybe this? DailyFX Analyst Picks Dunno.

ERIK, where are you?

RS

 

[ekanters]

Pips and more pips

Hi all,

My bearish view finally getting some legs. After all the pep talk of governments and Central Banks the truth is getting in the open. Finance minister Bos from the netherlands is afraid for a lower euro and higher interest rates. This because of a fight behind the scenes between France and Germany over the deficit. This would hurt the dutch economy in a massive way. (He forgot to say it will hurt Europe but I do that for him LOL)

Stock markets are overvalued and investors are now scratching their heads and wondering if they were not to optimistic on the economy. They started thinking about that just before the avelange of company numbers is coming out, second quarter and half year results.

So from being to optimistsic they changed their view to mine and that made oil prices drop. Also a rogue trader pushed oil prices to just above the 70 dollar mark and the company he works for made a huge loss. Still some Nick leasons out there.

With oil prices comming down meaning the Japanese can save a lot more money for other things becasue they import all of their Oil the Yen skyrocketet today. The combination of Euro pressure and Pesimistic outlook from investors did the rest.

All pipperoonies and I was in it but no not all the way. There is always the possibility of Bernake saying all is well and it will shoot the other way again.

Anyway fundamentals are in control now against massive optimism. But you never know what happens next.

Might write some more with a bearish strategy in the near future.

RS your wish is my command. Your forever ....... Bear.

Erik

 

[Rollingstone]

Huggy is back! Yay

Aahhh Erik

My favourite Huggy Bear.

Thank you! I always like reading your analysis, you explain things so well.

Don't stay away again too long, it's really good to have you back.

We can always rely on you to hoover up those pips, well done.

RS

 

[allgood]

Absolutely right.

And what a great shield Dan makes, all the right proportions (all those crumpets).

RS

I bet zak holds his own too

Brett

 

[danarm]

Stocks, commodities all struggling to find a mojo and yet EM still feelsfine. I am not sure if it's the money that was pumped into VTB thisweek via the CBR either way the market feels ok. Another market that isapparently doing very well is the high grade world. I am hearing newdeals flying out the door every other hour with many times oversubscribed books. Someone asked me earlier where is this liquiditycoming from? Clearly some is coming from the central banks and I amassuming we continue to see money market flows as well, however whetherthe cash from QE finds its way into real money is a question of debate.I don't know if I am being super sceptical but this market reminds me ofthe Nasdaq in 2000, everyone is piling into these new issues like theyare a guaranteed way to make money and we know how that one ended.Bottom line the market is difficult to call as the fundamentals remainawful but the liquidity remains ample.

Mr P......

 

[danarm]

Erik good to see u back my friend...Keep posting your views as i love a good read.

The good news is the bear traders are back and making lots of pips now. June was poor but July has already bought a smile to my face...

The thing about trading is that everyone has a poor month but if u believe in yourself the pips will always come back into play. I have been pulled from pillar to post in May and June with various trading ideas (and of course babies) but boy its good to be back ignoring external factors and concentrating purely on my own techinque...

I have my mojo back for pips and boy this summer is going to be a good one.

Just been for a lovely walk along the beach with the family. The ocean is so amazing and peaceful when it wants to be..Btw my dream is still to row the atlantic. I have three but need a fourth to enter the race in October 2010. Let me know if anyone wants a life changing challenge.

D

 

[ekanters]

More bearish news

Here are some things to think about when planning your future.

Massive hunger in the world caused by this credit crisis will lead to big migrations from places where there is no food and water into the cities. Only last year a 100.000.000 people were added to this problem. Yes you are reading it as it says. One hundred million. Now 1 out of 6 in this world do not have enough food. It means cheap labor is comming in to your home town and the only thing they need is something to eat. I don't think you can compeat with your swiming pool Television and 3 times a year on holliday.

Talk about a new reserve currency will undermine the fragile western economies. The dollar is and was the main currency to trade with worldwide. One of the reasons for that is the political stability in the US for decades and a lot more reasons I can think of. This can not be said about China, Russia or any other foreign power. Well maybe India but who wants ruppies in his pocket??? Not me. Trying to break the dollar by these so called new super powers is a dead end and will only lead to uncertenty and let me tell you that's one thing investors don't like. The dollar is here to stay. Maybe just maybe the Euro can be a substittute in the future but that will take a long time. They still fighting over who gets control. Just like world war 2 but instead of guns the now use political statements to get other countries on their knees. (simmellar with china who tries to break the US.)

All these bailout plans and other stuff we do not know about will produce a massive bill and will ultimately undermine the purchasing power of the consumer because of higher taxes and lower retirement payouts. Inflation will hit soon as well because of the solution for all this was massive printing of dollars and one way or the other this has to get compensated. With higher interest rates it is also likely that housing prices will fall even further. This will also hurt consumer spending in the long run because it will lead to less credit.

To make it all even more scary: Big banks already paying bigger bonuses to their members of the board and I don't think people will take that for granted when the stock markets start to slide again and the credit tap gets closed. Yes sir uprises from the people in the street.

Sleep well and get up fresh in the morning because the sun shines for free.

Your forever..... Bear.

Erik

P.S. THX for the kind words and I wish I could give you better news but it is as it is.

 

[ekanters]

Forgot

Forgot to say this. Don't trade on what I wrote. LOL.

4 hour charts are $ charts.

Erik

 

[danarm]

Good morning all

USDJPY as expected has made that big drive down towards the $90.00 which has helped EJ & GJ on their way. As mentioned yesterday you need a little patience with these trades and you must keep a firm eye on that 4 hour chart to give you that confidence to hold trades overnight.

OIL and Indices are still in a strong down trend which is assisting the USD. Every trade has been with the trend and that’s why JULY is such a good month.

CABLE
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma.
• 15min CCI and 60min CCI are both positive suggesting a little life in the beast. However lets remember the 4hr and daily trend is down.
• 1.6072 is immediate support but selling here with the DP and 15min 50ma at 1.6050 is risky.
• 1.6000 is always going to see a few brave buyers out there so we need to respect this level.
• For me the only trade is a 123 through the DP with the main trend.
• If I hit the break I will surely let you know.
• If for what ever reason OIL & Indices start to find support I would only be looking for a long back above 1.6142 with a 123.

EURUSD
• Very similar setup as CABLE.
• USDCHF is holding this fella back and would like to see the CHF break 1.0952.
• Some of you (in school) would have been sent my detailed video on EURUSD yesterday and we are still holding 50% after banking 85 pips.
• Same as CABLE I will be looking for a 123 south through the DP at 77.
• That 15min 50ma is like an Australian wicket keeper and catches a lot of people out.
• We need to see a break and then a pullback for any short play with the main trend.
• On the upside if USDCHF break 1.0850 then EURUSD would find support.
• No that keen on a huge long so would have to play 123 on a technical setup through the resistance at 1.3915.

USDJPY
• Same setup as CABLE and EURUSD.
• Major trend down, our15min 50ma behind the stumps so lets be patient and wait for the 123 and get all MA¨s behind us.
• 93.00 is the immediate support and 93.50 resistance.
• If this goes watch EURJPY through 128.75 & GBPJPY through 148.95

 

[danarm]

Good morning all.

Quite a different day here yesterday, getting to grips with the whole dollar strength thing, poaching a few off the Swissie, smashing the Kiwi and for those of you fortunate to be part of the video alerts, almost a couple of hundred on the Gold to round off a great day.

Today looks like a different story altogether for the dollar. There is a potential for a double bottom on yesterdays low at 80.51, but there seems to be more bias at this stage of the day, for it to fall through here and head back to the daily 20 or lower.

Dow fell aggressively early into the US session along with commodities and yet the Dollar didn’t really take advantage of the situation until falling back somewhat late on with the Wall St bounce.

I am liking the buck down a bit this morning yet all dollar related currencies are still set up for shorts, so we must be a little cautious until such time as the 60m 20 crosses the 50.

USDCAD

This can make a little run south with the Dollar.

4hr 1hr & 15m trends are all telling me to take a small short one here to the 4hr 50 at 11625 and and then to the weekly pivot at around the 11550 level

Stops would need to be 40 pips above the price around the 15m 50sma at 11660.

AUDUSD

Again this is based on a weaker US dollar. If dollar weakness fails to materialise the leave this.

60m trend and 15m trend trying to push up against the longer term 4hr trend.

Always a little caution required but a chance that a break up through 0.7820 could see this to the 60m 50 somewhere up around the 0.7880 level.

Stop would ideally need to be situating itself just below the pivot.

We could even look for a 5m double top around the 60m 50 / 4hr 20 region at 07880 then go short with the main trend if USD finds support later.


Not massive pipers but a couple of small potentials playing the counter-trends.

Always use smaller stakes when playing against the 4hr trend.

Have a good morning

 

[danarm]

Good afternoon

All these notes are emailed to you at 6.30am each morning.

It was a good day and we are building well for July. Zia was student of the day yesterday with 600 pips.

Today we went long of EURJPY and GBPJPY for a total of 65 pips. We also shorted UJ for 20 pips and still holding part.

We are respecting the trends and only playing breakouts against the trend for short term plays.

Overall another great day and kept it very tight. We are all set up for the big plays with the trend and hopefully they get hit later this afternoon.

D

 

[danarm]

Hi Erik

Your post has made me want to jump off a cliff... I know the world is in a bad way but boy am i still going to enjoy myself...

Can u post something with a little financial humour next time and put a smile on my face.

D