It's All About The Pips...

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Good morning all

Good to be back and I hope everyone is well…

CABLE
• CABLE has found a range between 1.6550 and 1.6200
• All MA´s suggest further downside but with an oscillating market we need to be a little careful.
• The 60min 20ma is at 1.6350 and would need to see support off that for any long play.
• With the USD ‘potentially’ showing a little strength this am lets wait for a selling opportunity using the15min 20ma as a resistance.
• To conclude lets see if 1.6300 can be broken.ç

EURUSD
• MP is clear support here at 1.3827.
• All MA´s suggest further weakness but this critical support needs to be tested and broken.
• Potential gap play to the MP on a break of 1.3850 with a 123 on a 5min chart
• Its not a huge gap but will keep u posted.
• If the USD weakens this am lets look for a break of the DP at 1.3870 for a gap to the figure.
 
Good afternoon

I hope you are all well... Its good to be back.

We had a great trade in CABLE this morning with strong USD in the first hour and weak GBP across the board. USDCHF looked set to rise but slowly the sellers came in and we lost 19 pips on this as it broke the 60min 20ma. We pre empted the USD strength and lost a few pips on EURUSD as well... So with 1 big winner in CABLE it was soon to be wiped out by the 2 losers in EURUSD & USDCHF and therefore flat for the morning session :(

Hope you are all having a good afternoon.

Zak will be running the live room tomorrow, with James on Thursday and me back on Friday.

See u then.

D
 
I was invited back to the FX500 room for a free week; on offer I took up out of curiosity.
They are still using their mutli-time-frame MAs, and CCIs.
I dont know if they used the daily and weekly pivots before, but they also use these.
There is some acknowledgement of trendlines, sup and res.
So, in all, they are consistently using the same method.

What struck me was how in the intervening months I have cleared my own charts of many lines!
There appear or be fewer "noise" posts, ie, arbitrary chit-chat. there seems to be more focus. This is a good thing. Questions, entered by text are answered in a timely fashion by James, or as today, Dan.

There is an "Announcements" section which records, with a timestamp a trade-call, complete with stop-losses. And these trades are talked about as they are forming, so you dont get caught unawares.
The morning macro-analysis is pretty good, and something I think gives a good context to the coming days action plan. Thats something I think I will miss.

Overall, my opinion of the room remains the same as before. Its an excellent, and supportive environment for newbies, who need their hands held in the first few months of their trading career. But, perhaps, is too constrictive if you're more experienced.

This time round I didnt get spooked (as often) out of trades when my analysis conflicted by the room controllers. (James was bullish on GU yesterday in the morning, but didnt stop me shorting GU twice!! (y) )

They seem to have a target of about 250 pips per week, although thats for each member to decide. The levels of pips made on the days I attended leads me to believe this target is comfortably achieveable. I wasnt paying enough attention as to how many concurrent trades they held, but on GU and EU, for example, its certainly do-able.

Would I recommend FX500? On the whole, yes.
 
I am really surprised I am not on holiday as the market is starting toboot off. Corporates continue to widen out and in a market where itsvery difficult to borrow bonds, shorts in corporates are rarer thanrocking horse poop and the so called buyers on dips have so far notmaterialised. With this technical picture in mind the short termoutlook for corps doesn't look pretty at the moment (spreads 20-50 wideronce again). As always traders have to have a hedge on and that is viathe CDS market most probably in Turkey that continues to outperform therest of the region. The charts look awful, govys trade well despiterecord issuance and the immediate signs do not look good. Most socalled experts are calling this a little profit taking related dip andnothing more sinister than that. I am not so sure and as an eternalbear my concern is that the authorities have played all their jokers.If the market does start to break down, what have they got left in theirarmoury to prevent another sh*teshow? I still think we are in a datadependent environment where better than expected data is crucial to givecredence to the green shooters. Aside from that get yourself a glass ofPimms put some sunnies on and enjoy Wimbledon.

Mr P.......
 
Good morning all.

With USDX falling through the base of the daily ascending triangle yesterday there looks to be some rocky roads ahead for the US$.
It has fallen a long way from the averages on the 60m chart and the 4hr CCI tells us it’s way oversold in the immediate term.
Longer term anti-dollar trades can be held but short term should be closed or part closed with profit.

I am on the Dollar fence this morning as and pullback could result in falling EURUSD & GBPUSD. Do we really want to be looking for short plays on these two?

Absolutely not.
However, I do feel that with the big run EURUSD had over Cable it would be fair to say that perhaps the former has further to pullback than the latter. In this case we could see a stronger pound than euro and my money will be on EURGBP short through the daily pivot.
I will look for an entry arounf 08545 and will target the 4hr 20ema and 60m 50sma around the 08500 levels with a stop at .70.

Naturally I’d be looking to get on the back of the Dollar weakness later after some consolidation on the index. My main suspect here would be a 120 pip play on USDCAD short through the 4hr 20 targeting the weekly pivot witha 50 pip stop above the pivot.

Have a good morning.

Z
 
Afternoon all

A very good morning with some solid pips made in EURGBP.

The guys in the school would have received your video alert this am to buy EURUSD just above the 1.4000 level. We have banked 50% at 1.4055 and holding balance with stop below the DP. A great trade and lets see if it can double bottom (off the DP) for a move higher. Its a free trade now with 50pips in the bank.

I know quite a few who took it (by email) so well done..

See u tom.
D
 
Hi

Have lowered stop below 1.3950.

As mentioned i have locked in pips already so even if i lose on the balance its still a free trade.

See u tom.
D
 
Price action too weak..

Closed position at 97 in EURUSD.

Will see what happens later on.

D
 
Not a great deal to report today, quiet session until Durable goods didits usual and came out no where near economist's forecasts. Market gota little excited and in small pockets I saw some corporate buying forthe first time this week. That said I continue to see real moneylightening up in quasi names in decent sizes. I am hearing that thisis not necessarily outflows but it is Spring inflow money taking profit,what that means going forward I am not sure. The big wide world reallyis a mixed bag, as I am writing the Dow looks like it has snapped out ofits losing streak (was down 5 of the last 6 sessions before today) andopinion is very divided between the green shooters and the eternalbears. All eyes on the Fed tonight, it's a difficult one for them asthey need to try talk up the bond market and the stock market and thatis not an easy one to sell. I boringly predictably fail to get excitedabout current spread levels and will continue to reside in my dark cave.

Mr P.......
 
Good morning all,

A quiet morning in terms of news we have Industrial New Orders M/M from the EUR Zone out at 10 am, I would expect this to be out worse than expected in the region of -0.4% / -0.8%.

Everything has retraced into the averages over night and we are currently boxed on our two major pairs Fibre and Cable.



GBPUSD:



Boxed between the Daily and the Weekly Pivot.
Averages are supporting a move higher with a break of 1.6480 confirming the move higher.
If we do see selling coming into the market I would be looking for a clear break of the weekly pivot and a 123 back into it.


EURUSD:



Has retraced to the break out resistance from Tuesday. Now looking to find some support off this level.
My Major concern is the resistance we have above us in the form of the 4 hourly 20 MA and the Daily pivot. We would require a clean break of the daily pivot with a 123 to enter EURUSD
A break to the south would be triggered if the price fell through overnight support at 1.3945 and could move as low as the Weekly Pivot at 1.3900


EURGBP



Over night range between 0.8475 and 0.8495.
A lot of resistance above would suggest a move lower breaking through the lows at 0.8475
A break higher at this stage would be difficult to trade but we will remain aware that this could happen.


USDCHF



WOW what a move after BIS stepped in.
Must retrace after a move like that. A bank may be able to buy up as many options as it likes but the market will realize that this is still a weak currency.
Will be difficult to trade so is not on my book.


Happy Pipping.

J
 
Back in the office tom...

I will be doing the live room on friday from 6.30am.

See u then.

D

PS Not sure how many pips were made today but i saw a great trade in EURGBP taken by James. I went for CABLE with Scott and ended up to be quite good as well. See u tom.
 
Just as it felt like we going to fall off a cliff the buyers return. PBbuyers leading the way looking to pick up decent corp and quasi paper inreasonable size, spreads 10-20bp tighter. The big wide world is still amixed bag. People unfortunately continue to lose their jobs in the US(continuing and initial claims higher than expected) although the greenshooters choose to ignore this data as a laggard (ie the markets rally 6months ahead of the trough). I still haven't got a clue, as I amwriting my little market feels ok having felt offered at the start ofthe week. I still don't see a huge amount of value for the risks atcurrent levels however further spread compression cannot be ruled out.I remain extremely bearish long term ie I think at some stage in thenext 2 years we will blow up in style and trade lower than the Marchlows. The bull argument however is there for everyone to see. Take theliquidity the ECB pumped in yesterday, 425bn euros at 1% well you don'thave to be Bill Gross to make a decent return on money at that rate, andas much as I hate the snails at the ECB I think this is better than theQE adopted by the Fed and BOE. What I am trying to say is that we areweighing up the huge liquidity that is out there at the moment vs thereality that the consumer is still indebted and losing their job. All Ido know is that if liquidity does win the day, we are creating an evenlarger bubble than we burst last year and that will not be fun when itbursts. Friday tomorrow, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't lookingforward to the weekend.

Mr P.....
 
Nice Steady Week

Hi Dan and the gang

Thanks Dan, Zak and James for another good week. Bit of a quiet week for me but made my target after this morning's session, ticked another week off my "plan" and the bank is building nicely.

Happy days :)

Have a great weekend everyone and see you Monday morning

Julie
 
danarm said:
Just as it felt like we going to fall off a cliff the buyers return. PBbuyers leading the way looking to pick up decent corp and quasi paper inreasonable size, spreads 10-20bp tighter. The big wide world is still amixed bag. People unfortunately continue to lose their jobs in the US(continuing and initial claims higher than expected) although the greenshooters choose to ignore this data as a laggard (ie the markets rally 6months ahead of the trough). I still haven't got a clue, as I amwriting my little market feels ok having felt offered at the start ofthe week. I still don't see a huge amount of value for the risks atcurrent levels however further spread compression cannot be ruled out.I remain extremely bearish long term ie I think at some stage in thenext 2 years we will blow up in style and trade lower than the Marchlows. The bull argument however is there for everyone to see. Take theliquidity the ECB pumped in yesterday, 425bn euros at 1% well you don'thave to be Bill Gross to make a decent return on money at that rate, andas much as I hate the snails at the ECB I think this is better than theQE adopted by the Fed and BOE. What I am trying to say is that we areweighing up the huge liquidity that is out there at the moment vs thereality that the consumer is still indebted and losing their job. All Ido know is that if liquidity does win the day, we are creating an evenlarger bubble than we burst last year and that will not be fun when itbursts. Friday tomorrow, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't lookingforward to the weekend.

Mr P.....
Click to expand...

Amen. Because that is exactly what is going to happen.
 
Good morning



It’s Friday with little news out this morning. Core CPI, Personal Spending and Consumer Sentiment in the States at 1.30pm will be worth keeping an eye on.



CABLE

Range bound between 1.6200 and 1.6600.
Temptation on the 60min chart suggests a buy off the 4hr 20ma at 1.6400 with a stop below DP at 70.
As I write a lower low has formed so I will be patient and wait for a higher high and higher low and a cross back above the 15min 20ma.
If however GBP continues to fall lets wait for a break through the 60min 20ma and 123 south play before we enter. The level would be around the 1.6370 with a stop back above the figure.
Patience before we jump in here.


USDCHF

Heavily boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma.
Looks weak initially but I would need to see a confirmed break of the 4hr 20ma at 1.0875 for this to really suggest weak USD across the board this morning.
Look for a 123 below the 4hr 20ma and a silver cross for any south play.
Likewise if the USD wants to strengthen this am then the only long play would be a break back above the 60min 20ma.
We would need to see 1.0950 level tested and broken for a long.


USDJPY

Looks reasonably weak with the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma behind it.
I would like to use the next 15min short trigger to suggest further weakness in USDJPY with a stop above the 96.00.


GBPJPY

With CABLE dithering around the 1.6400 level and USDJPY hesitating for a short, GBPJPY could be a play if these 2 go.
Lets again be patient and wait for a 123 through the DP and use the 15min trigger to our advantage.

D
 
I am currently sitting here waving my white flag (not a white glove Imight add!). I went home feeling a little bullish last night due tothe huge amount of liquidity that is prevalent in the market placecurrently however I cannot convince myself to get bullish when themarket has rallied 40% and companies continue to lay people off and theconsumer continues to save more and spend less. My little market infairness still feels ok with retail continuing to look for bondsalthough real money is taking some P. As you can tell from my last 2days commentary I have no conviction on the market near term and remaina bear long term. With that in mind makes sense to stay close toChingford. Enjoy the weekend, enjoy Wimbledon and don't turn on theradio unless you want to here Michael Jackson's back catalogue.

Mr P.....
 
The markets

Hi guys,

Hope you are doing well and I must admit I miss the room a bit but I also needed to back off a bit and work on my own strategie. With all the help I got from Dan, James and Mr Pimp himself I came a long way and the pips are roling in.

Anyway still watching Mr P's comments because I love them.

Wallstreet is at the cross roads of not knowing land. Up is as good as impossible because it will never be as it was and down is also not an option because that would be a disater for the economies. But you all know where I stand.

Don't let the markets get control of you just follow sentiment instead of the news. One more advice: Look more often at the 4 hour charts because that's where the pips are.

Have fun you all in the best room of Forex land.

Erik
 
ekanters said:
Hi guys,

Hope you are doing well and I must admit I miss the room a bit but I also needed to back off a bit and work on my own strategie. With all the help I got from Dan, James and Mr Pimp himself I came a long way and the pips are roling in.

Anyway still watching Mr P's comments because I love them.

Wallstreet is at the cross roads of not knowing land. Up is as good as impossible because it will never be as it was and down is also not an option because that would be a disater for the economies. But you all know where I stand.

Don't let the markets get control of you just follow sentiment instead of the news. One more advice: Look more often at the 4 hour charts because that's where the pips are.

Have fun you all in the best room of Forex land.

Erik
Click to expand...

Hi Erik

Really good to hear from you. You are sadly missed...

Up is as good as impossible because it will never be as it was and down is also not an option because that would be a disater for the economies.

Yes that sums up the market at the moment...I am still trying NOT to have a strong view on this market but deep down i am with u on this and i dont think it is looking good out there...

Saying that pips are there to be made and yes i do agree the 4hr chart is a peach for finding good setups. I often use it but do understand most novices can't because they have to have very tight stops due to lack of funds, so tend to use shorter term charts.

Keep posting my friend, your thoughts are always welcome.

Mr P...... has been a bear all his life by the way (as i said in his best man speech) and he will never change. (hehe)

Have a good weekend Erik.

D
 
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