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ekanters
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Great quote-sorry but I can't remember who said it on here...
"So my advice is, follow the charts because they show sentiment at that moment and when sentiment is up you buy and down you sell."
That sums up what we're all trying to do. Looking for reasons for moves is impossible (in my opinion), although it is fun and exercises the mind. Unless you work for an investment bank/government, and have your hand on the pump of millions/billions of dollars that drive the market, then you'll probably never know.
Why is cable doing so well? Why are the indices bouncing? Why is oil recovering?
I have to be honest, I read stuff to keep me abreast of things, but ultimately those markets are all above the relevant moving averages, and until they're not, then that's all that matters.
Got up late again, missed practically everything, made some money short on eur/gbp but that's it. Better than a punch in the face
Hope we can get back on track with this excellent forum and stop the personal sniping, because remember, it's all about the pips, right?
"So my advice is, follow the charts because they show sentiment at that moment and when sentiment is up you buy and down you sell."
That sums up what we're all trying to do. Looking for reasons for moves is impossible (in my opinion), although it is fun and exercises the mind. Unless you work for an investment bank/government, and have your hand on the pump of millions/billions of dollars that drive the market, then you'll probably never know.
Why is cable doing so well? Why are the indices bouncing? Why is oil recovering?
I have to be honest, I read stuff to keep me abreast of things, but ultimately those markets are all above the relevant moving averages, and until they're not, then that's all that matters.
Got up late again, missed practically everything, made some money short on eur/gbp but that's it. Better than a punch in the face
Hope we can get back on track with this excellent forum and stop the personal sniping, because remember, it's all about the pips, right?
bobthebuilder
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Nice set up on Cable 15 min this morning using 15 min trigger for 100pips or so, trading with the trend. Hourly cci just at 150, so not too oversold. Move on Wall St. confirmed move.
ekanters
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Vivek_Chhibba
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very confusing! The S&P500 has formed a double top.. technically the markets should fall. I'm staying away for now. Gonna place trailing some stops to enter below the gbpusd current levels. Its got to give way soon.
Yup cable is definitely high but I wouldn't want to pick the top, I'd rather just trade the trend, am not worried about catching all the different reactions. Up late again and missed the nice short term move south on Eur/USD-need to get to bed earlier!
B
Black Swan
Yep, plenty of pips available since 6.30 on cable if using 5 minute charts/TFs...even on the 15 min it's been OK.
danarm
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The sun continues to shine outside and on the markets. Stunning pendinghome sales numbers out of the US adding more fuel to the inferno. Atthe moment it is very difficult to find a reason to be bearish and finda trigger for a sell off other than the fact that pretty much everyoneyou speak to right now is bullish short term. I continue to hear of EMinflows and despite new issuance apparently around the corner (newRussag marketing on the qt) nothing it seems can upset this run.Although I have been positive short term for a while I begin to get alittle concerned when all including the stubborn bears have also gonepositive on the market. The crowded trades have rarely worked in thepast and these rules have not changed overnight. All that said a littlepull back should be an opportunity to buy on a dip as the next blow upappears to be a long way in the distance.
Mr P.....
Mr P.....
danarm
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Hi all
Good to see some interesting posts on here.
Totally agree with earlier posts. I have officially stopped thinking and stopped trying to find reasons why certain things should happen.
We had a good day today (except on USDJPY) and bought lots of USD this am across the board (& sold gold) until they turned. CABLE still worries me up here but hey thats the little bear in me.
See u tom.
D
Good to see some interesting posts on here.
Totally agree with earlier posts. I have officially stopped thinking and stopped trying to find reasons why certain things should happen.
We had a good day today (except on USDJPY) and bought lots of USD this am across the board (& sold gold) until they turned. CABLE still worries me up here but hey thats the little bear in me.
See u tom.
D
Vivek_Chhibba
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The Nasdaq and S&P500 are now both trading above thier 200 day MA. Cable is up today. I think after a short retracement, it may well see itself at 1.7300 over the next few weeks/months (50% fibo line). Obviously, that is only how it looks today. It only takes another announcement or batch of poor numbers like GDP, unemployment, retail sales or housing data to send it back down. Sitting on my hands until i get a clear signal.
ekanters
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Bear
Hi guys,
As a bear I am getting pretty upset because the bottom of my wallet is in sight. Can't keep the fight on much longer with these crazy bulls.
But like always the trend will probebly coming my way after I spend my last pip.
Not the case of course but that's how I feel. Its all lying and a lot of BULL (Double meaning, you get it?? LOL) what these governments and Central Bankers do. It realy gets me frustrated.
Your forever Bear,
Erik
Hi guys,
As a bear I am getting pretty upset because the bottom of my wallet is in sight. Can't keep the fight on much longer with these crazy bulls.
But like always the trend will probebly coming my way after I spend my last pip.
Not the case of course but that's how I feel. Its all lying and a lot of BULL (Double meaning, you get it?? LOL) what these governments and Central Bankers do. It realy gets me frustrated.
Your forever Bear,
Erik
henkvanhirtum
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ekanters
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Me is happy now. Me in better mood now.
Hey Henk,
Maybe I will be happy in the end after all. Seeing your picture and after reading the story below I am beginning to get in a better mood. Please ad more of this stuff.
Deflation: Now a European Problem, Too Despite the Fed’s expansive balance sheet, it's not inflation U.S and Europe need to worry about.
By Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
The winds of deflation are blowing in Europe, and Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, is at the helm of the economic ship, desperately hoping to avoid the shoals of policy error. Trichet does not need a GPS unit or navigational charts to see the rocks, because the wreck of the Federal Reserve lies just ahead and is plain enough to see.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke respects the economic troubles deflation can summon, but he feared depression, and in response he engineered an aggressive monetary response to sustain the U.S. financial system and keep short-term interest rates low. Bernanke was complacent when the fiscal stimulus package was passed in January 2008, and now the 2009 U.S. budget deficit is forecast to be 13% of GDP and account for nearly half of government spending. The Congressional Budget Office projects trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see and a gross federal debt above 100% of GDP by 2017. On top of that, the U.S. faces a renewed credit crisis over the next year in a massive set of Alt-A mortgage resets and hundreds of billions in commercial real estate rollovers due. Job losses in the U.S. are at a pace to move above 10% unemployment in the next 6 months, and mortgage delinquencies continue to rise.
If this is not a shipwreck, then I do not know what is.
Yet, despite the massive increase in the Fed’s balance sheet, I see little inflationary pressures, in the U.S or Europe. While consumer spending in Germany has held relatively firm, that cannot be sustained. Deflation is coming to Europe too, and we will now see if the ECB can deftly maneuver through the policy trap of massive deficit spending to avoid an even deeper recession.
The calls for bailouts, protectionism and stimulus spending are already making for choppy political seas in Frankfurt. German bonds have been a far superior investment over U.S. Treasuries because of the lack of action by the ECB. But should that change, then bets against the Bund, and the recovery for Europe, could pay off handsomely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This essay originally appeared on the June U.S. Treasury daily forecast page of Bill Fox’s intensive Interest Rates Specialty Service.
Hey Henk,
Maybe I will be happy in the end after all. Seeing your picture and after reading the story below I am beginning to get in a better mood. Please ad more of this stuff.
Deflation: Now a European Problem, Too Despite the Fed’s expansive balance sheet, it's not inflation U.S and Europe need to worry about.
By Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
The winds of deflation are blowing in Europe, and Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, is at the helm of the economic ship, desperately hoping to avoid the shoals of policy error. Trichet does not need a GPS unit or navigational charts to see the rocks, because the wreck of the Federal Reserve lies just ahead and is plain enough to see.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke respects the economic troubles deflation can summon, but he feared depression, and in response he engineered an aggressive monetary response to sustain the U.S. financial system and keep short-term interest rates low. Bernanke was complacent when the fiscal stimulus package was passed in January 2008, and now the 2009 U.S. budget deficit is forecast to be 13% of GDP and account for nearly half of government spending. The Congressional Budget Office projects trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see and a gross federal debt above 100% of GDP by 2017. On top of that, the U.S. faces a renewed credit crisis over the next year in a massive set of Alt-A mortgage resets and hundreds of billions in commercial real estate rollovers due. Job losses in the U.S. are at a pace to move above 10% unemployment in the next 6 months, and mortgage delinquencies continue to rise.
If this is not a shipwreck, then I do not know what is.
Yet, despite the massive increase in the Fed’s balance sheet, I see little inflationary pressures, in the U.S or Europe. While consumer spending in Germany has held relatively firm, that cannot be sustained. Deflation is coming to Europe too, and we will now see if the ECB can deftly maneuver through the policy trap of massive deficit spending to avoid an even deeper recession.
The calls for bailouts, protectionism and stimulus spending are already making for choppy political seas in Frankfurt. German bonds have been a far superior investment over U.S. Treasuries because of the lack of action by the ECB. But should that change, then bets against the Bund, and the recovery for Europe, could pay off handsomely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This essay originally appeared on the June U.S. Treasury daily forecast page of Bill Fox’s intensive Interest Rates Specialty Service.
danarm
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For the 'bears' today there were lots of pips on the table...
I have spoken to a few of you and i must say well done. I know its been hard trying to find a top but days like this are a joy.
Pullbacks all round...I know we were split on this in the room but finally the bears won the day.
Looking forward to tomorrow already.
D
I have spoken to a few of you and i must say well done. I know its been hard trying to find a top but days like this are a joy.
Pullbacks all round...I know we were split on this in the room but finally the bears won the day.
Looking forward to tomorrow already.
D
danarm
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Good afternoon all
GBP rates remain unchanged.
Good morning all
What a performance from the British Lions last night…
We have seen USD strength over the last 24 hours but not expecting to see this last for much longer.
The USD could go either way today with Wall St Future trying to hold above the 4hr 20ma. Personally unless Wall St Future breaks 8680 the sentiment for the USD will be small up this morning. USDCHF has support at 1.0671 and resistance at 1.0713. A break of these will give an idea of USD strength today.
USDCHF
• Looking for a break…
• Looking for a Golden cross of the 15min 20ma with the 15min 50ma above the 1.0713 level.
• The USD index isn’t looking that strong 1st thing so lets not jump in too early. We need clear direction and proof that this USD will continue. I have my doubts but lets see.
USDJPY
• Key resistance ahead at 96.35
• MAs are building for a move higher if the USD can gain strength and stay above 95.90
• Will keep u posted
GBP rates remain unchanged.
Good morning all
What a performance from the British Lions last night…
We have seen USD strength over the last 24 hours but not expecting to see this last for much longer.
The USD could go either way today with Wall St Future trying to hold above the 4hr 20ma. Personally unless Wall St Future breaks 8680 the sentiment for the USD will be small up this morning. USDCHF has support at 1.0671 and resistance at 1.0713. A break of these will give an idea of USD strength today.
USDCHF
• Looking for a break…
• Looking for a Golden cross of the 15min 20ma with the 15min 50ma above the 1.0713 level.
• The USD index isn’t looking that strong 1st thing so lets not jump in too early. We need clear direction and proof that this USD will continue. I have my doubts but lets see.
USDJPY
• Key resistance ahead at 96.35
• MAs are building for a move higher if the USD can gain strength and stay above 95.90
• Will keep u posted
danarm
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Head and Shoulders all over the place...
Which way will this go i ask?
Wall St Future is key around the 60min 20ma. This breaks and CABLE and EURUSD falls.
Look at Head and Shoudler on EUR. We have sent you an email.
USDJPY drifting but free trade now..
D
Which way will this go i ask?
Wall St Future is key around the 60min 20ma. This breaks and CABLE and EURUSD falls.
Look at Head and Shoudler on EUR. We have sent you an email.
USDJPY drifting but free trade now..
D
danarm
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Hi
Just got back and see USDJPY 2nd target hit at 96.80 but got stopped on balance as it fell back through the MP at 96.35.
EURUSD trade worked out well (down to the 4hr 50ma) and hit 1st target at 1.4090. Still holding balance and stop will be hit on break back up through the resistance and 60min 50ma at 1.4225.
Email worked out well and some lovely pips in the bank. Well done for those who traded it short on the Head & Shoulders.
Wall St breaking the 60min 20ma was key and has since made a good recovery. Still below the resistance at 8715...
Have a good evening...Last 2 days been vvv good indeed.
D
Just got back and see USDJPY 2nd target hit at 96.80 but got stopped on balance as it fell back through the MP at 96.35.
EURUSD trade worked out well (down to the 4hr 50ma) and hit 1st target at 1.4090. Still holding balance and stop will be hit on break back up through the resistance and 60min 50ma at 1.4225.
Email worked out well and some lovely pips in the bank. Well done for those who traded it short on the Head & Shoulders.
Wall St breaking the 60min 20ma was key and has since made a good recovery. Still below the resistance at 8715...
Have a good evening...Last 2 days been vvv good indeed.
D
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