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danarm
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As CNBC has been banging on about all day, selling in May and going away didn't work in 2009. 3 consecutive months of positive stock market returns, Baltic dry index rallying, commodities rallying, dollar selling off, its like déjà vu all over again! The question is what is driving these moves? Are we pricing in a V shaped recovery ie effectively the reflation trade or are all these dollars the Fed keeps printing ( via QE) being recycled back into the market creating another bubble that will inevitably burst at some point. With what is going on out there much like 2008 I am sure it wont be long before people start talking about stagflation once again. We are already noticing it at the petrol pump as Unleaded is once again above £1 per litre and your Chelsea tractor will cost you nearly 100 pounds to refill again. Of course if inflation/stagflation concerns kick in again, what does that do to treasury yields and interest rate expectations? If you believe in the reflation trade then of course this is great news for EM investors and could mean spreads tighten in further still. As always I don't buy it and my reasoning is very simple the only thing I see in the real world going up in price are commodities ie petrol and food. Is this surge in the oil price based on real demand for oil or too many speculative dollars chasing hard assets? In the real world I am seeing prices coming off. It doesn't matter if it's a newspaper (the Sun is 20p), a local golf club (one local club slashing its fees to try and increase cash flow) or a hotel room in Dubai, many business's are cutting prices to undercut their rivals and stay afloat as we are no where near full capacity in any economy around the globe. What is worrying is that the essential things we need to survive ie food, gas and electricity are on its way back up in price and the luxury goods we can do without are coming off in my view not a pretty picture for the future. In the meantime we head into June with this madness set to continue although Geithner's trip to China this weekend could be interesting reading. Although I fear the further we rally the further we fall the good news is that another 100bp or so of tightening and the syndicate desks can get ready for the floodgates to reopen as I feel we are very close to seeing some new issuance in decent Russian names very soon. Amazingly on Monday we enter the month June (time flies when the market rallies!), the safe bet at the moment is that there is no sign of a blow up anytime soon. A word of warning however as I am heading to sunny SC for a few weeks in June and that usually spells extreme volatility. Enjoy the sunny weekend!
Mr P......
Mr P......
montmorencyt2w
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Real world prices coming off? My cat's litter was up 10% today since I last bought some a month ago.
(So Biocatolet is a "Buy", I'd say
)
[Disclaimer: this is not trading advice. Cat litter can go down, as well as up, especially when you are trying to get the used stuff into the bin bag ...]
On a serious note: the main thing to worry about in the future is peak oil, followed by other vital commodities, not least, water.
(So Biocatolet is a "Buy", I'd say
)[Disclaimer: this is not trading advice. Cat litter can go down, as well as up, especially when you are trying to get the used stuff into the bin bag ...]
On a serious note: the main thing to worry about in the future is peak oil, followed by other vital commodities, not least, water.
Rollingstone
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Tenapenny
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He doesn't look too bad on it though. Should be ok with a nice Chianti....or I wonder if he prefers Amarone della Valpolicella.
ekanters
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World economy
Hi guys,
Yep wall street tricked us again by a late rally on Friday. But did it really?? When taking the decline of the dollar on Friday we can actually say that wall street didn't do much in real value.
But let's take a closer look at what is going on. Everybody is saying that the oil and gold prices are going up but shouldn't we be saying that money is losing its value at this moment. Is it not so that foreclosure in the housing sector continue with a speed that is set on cruise control. Bernanke and other are telling you now that the bottom is in sight because the downtrend is slowing down. But my Porsche (that I don't have) can't go any faster than between 200 and 300 km/hr. And sometimes I have to slow down because there is another car in front of me before pushing the gas down again.
Is it not so that this so called optimism is base based on a false reality????
1 Interest rates are moving up fast.
2 commodities in relation to money up as well again.
3 Foreclosures continue at cruise control speed.
4 unemployment still rising. (The takeover of Opel is just a bankruptcy delay for this part of GM. If this takeover would have failed it would have meant a bankruptcy for Magna as well because they deliver auto parts to car manufacturers. So no cars no parts)
5 The so called rise in consumer confidence will be hit hard with all these things pointing in just one direction and that is depression.
All in all my predicted scenario from 2006 is still in play and that is Stagflation on a huge scale.
The only thing that has kept this scenario away from the financial world were the huge amounts of money thrown in to the market but how long can they keep doing this????
What does this mean for your trading on the short term?? Actually nothing!! The above scenario will be fact for the future but it will not show sentiment changes that happen near term. Fundamentals will eventually determine the direction of Currencies, Commodities, Bonds and other investments. But on the short term you have to trade sentiment and not the fundamentals.
So my advice is, follow the charts because they show sentiment at that moment and when sentiment is up you buy and down you sell.
Happy trading and have fun.
Your forever Bear,
Erik
Hi guys,
Yep wall street tricked us again by a late rally on Friday. But did it really?? When taking the decline of the dollar on Friday we can actually say that wall street didn't do much in real value.
But let's take a closer look at what is going on. Everybody is saying that the oil and gold prices are going up but shouldn't we be saying that money is losing its value at this moment. Is it not so that foreclosure in the housing sector continue with a speed that is set on cruise control. Bernanke and other are telling you now that the bottom is in sight because the downtrend is slowing down. But my Porsche (that I don't have) can't go any faster than between 200 and 300 km/hr. And sometimes I have to slow down because there is another car in front of me before pushing the gas down again.
Is it not so that this so called optimism is base based on a false reality????
1 Interest rates are moving up fast.
2 commodities in relation to money up as well again.
3 Foreclosures continue at cruise control speed.
4 unemployment still rising. (The takeover of Opel is just a bankruptcy delay for this part of GM. If this takeover would have failed it would have meant a bankruptcy for Magna as well because they deliver auto parts to car manufacturers. So no cars no parts)
5 The so called rise in consumer confidence will be hit hard with all these things pointing in just one direction and that is depression.
All in all my predicted scenario from 2006 is still in play and that is Stagflation on a huge scale.
The only thing that has kept this scenario away from the financial world were the huge amounts of money thrown in to the market but how long can they keep doing this????
What does this mean for your trading on the short term?? Actually nothing!! The above scenario will be fact for the future but it will not show sentiment changes that happen near term. Fundamentals will eventually determine the direction of Currencies, Commodities, Bonds and other investments. But on the short term you have to trade sentiment and not the fundamentals.
So my advice is, follow the charts because they show sentiment at that moment and when sentiment is up you buy and down you sell.
Happy trading and have fun.
Your forever Bear,
Erik
ekanters
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Daily overview
The trend in the USD continues to decline and only the GBPUSD is getting to extreem overbought levels on RSI but when it would consolidate for a day or 2 it could rise even more. The rest of these pairs have lots of space to either side and the trend is your friend.
The two reversal candles on eurjpy and gbpjpy need to be confirmed by the next candle so be carefull with going short here.
Erik
P.S. Check this link on what happened Friday in the Dow. Interesting to see.
YouTube - Weekend Technical Guidance - Can The Late Day Squeezes Continue? June 1st-5th, 2009
The trend in the USD continues to decline and only the GBPUSD is getting to extreem overbought levels on RSI but when it would consolidate for a day or 2 it could rise even more. The rest of these pairs have lots of space to either side and the trend is your friend.
The two reversal candles on eurjpy and gbpjpy need to be confirmed by the next candle so be carefull with going short here.
Erik
P.S. Check this link on what happened Friday in the Dow. Interesting to see.
YouTube - Weekend Technical Guidance - Can The Late Day Squeezes Continue? June 1st-5th, 2009
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ekanters
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Trend Lines
Hi guys some questions have been asked about the lines but nothing new here. I just draw trendlines in advance and like everything you can do that on all time frames. I was only explaining the art of trend lines on a 1 minute chart to Ashok because that makes it faster to see what happens. We were both not in the mood to wait for a whole month or more.
But for those who think something secret has been discussed I addded a picture of a 1 month trend line on GBPUSD so you can see what happened in the future. But like everything there is no holy grail. Only hard work and the bounce of the top could just as easely have been broken. Its still you that have to push the button.
See chart below.
Erik
P.S. Time to get the BBQ on fire. PARTY. But without a swimming pool. Dan still has a big advantige over me. So it seems he is a better PIP maker.
Hi guys some questions have been asked about the lines but nothing new here. I just draw trendlines in advance and like everything you can do that on all time frames. I was only explaining the art of trend lines on a 1 minute chart to Ashok because that makes it faster to see what happens. We were both not in the mood to wait for a whole month or more.
But for those who think something secret has been discussed I addded a picture of a 1 month trend line on GBPUSD so you can see what happened in the future. But like everything there is no holy grail. Only hard work and the bounce of the top could just as easely have been broken. Its still you that have to push the button.
See chart below.
Erik
P.S. Time to get the BBQ on fire. PARTY. But without a swimming pool. Dan still has a big advantige over me. So it seems he is a better PIP maker.
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B
Black Swan
Surprise? Non. Wall st often has a mad hour or so at the end of the week (more so end of month), you just have to have the stamina to be there when there's so many other distractions at the end of each week...
All the indicators/signals on a fifteen minute chart were good to go at 8:15.
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ekanters
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Surprise? Non. Wall st often has a mad hour or so at the end of the week (more so end of month), you just have to have the stamina to be there when there's so many other distractions at the end of each week...
All the indicators/signals on a fifteen minute chart were good to go at 8:15.
Hi Swan,
Not meaning any harm with what I am about to say. At the website http://www.could_have_known.com we are all masters in charts. Wether its a 15 min or a day chart. But because that website is not up to date I get tricked all the time. If this was not the case Warren Buffet would be standing in my shadow.
Erik
B
Black Swan
no offence taken, I'm very emotionally nuetral when in comes to trading. Fact remains if you were on the ball (and it fits in with how your trade) then the stoch signals (in particular) on Fri at approx. 8:15 were as good as it gets for going long. Your emotional babble regarding wall street "tricking us" is just ...well...empty noise.
ekanters
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no offence taken, I'm very emotionally nuetral when in comes to trading. Your emotional babble regarding wall street "tricking us" is just ...well...empty noise.
Hi Swan,
Check your post #1751 Cable was at that time around 1.5750 and now above 1.6200. I think emotions did hit you at that time. But in the end we are all human.
Erik
B
Black Swan
:whistling
alliance
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ekanters,
you re-registered with the name amdria
you then posted saying u were new here
you then posted a reply to BlackSwan using the nic amdria but messed up by signing it erik
you then deleted that post
then you posted it again under ekanter nic
why?
you re-registered with the name amdria
you then posted saying u were new here
you then posted a reply to BlackSwan using the nic amdria but messed up by signing it erik
you then deleted that post
then you posted it again under ekanter nic
why?
ekanters
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ekanters,
you re-registered with the name amdria
you then posted saying u were new here
you then posted a reply to BlackSwan using the nic amdria but messed up by signing it erik
you then deleted that post
then you posted it again under ekanter nic
why?
All true. The first post was with my wifes login. Did not know that. Simple misunderstanding. That's the reason I made the correction. Same reply.
I think no harm done because I do not want to reply under a false name. My wife just signed in and wants to learn more. The post she made under Amdria was only saying I am on.
Erik
P.S. I do not use a nik name. My name is plain and simple Erik Kanters ( I have nothing to hide)
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