It's All About The Pips...

[Black Swan]

Hi Dan

Thank you to exist.
Only proceed
Sinisa Brkic

Excellent turn of phrase.

 

[danarm]

Good afternoon all

Well looking back over the charts i see another day governed by the DOW.

There has been a serious lack of direction today making it very hard to trade. I will be watching the DOW very closely this evening... We could see a shorting possibility up in the high 8400s with a stop above early May highs.

Apologies for not being there but i'll definitely be in the room tomorrow.

Have a good evening.

D

 

[Vivek_Chhibba]

Good afternoon all

Well looking back over the charts i see another day governed by the DOW.

There has been a serious lack of direction today making it very hard to trade. I will be watching the DOW very closely this evening... We could see a shorting possibility up in the high 8400s with a stop above early May highs.

Apologies for not being there but i'll definitely be in the room tomorrow.

Have a good evening.

D

I agree mate.. I can see a small drop in the S&P coming too. There has been a failure to penetrate the head of a H&S on the monthly chart..



Vivek Chhibba

 

[danarm]

Yes Vivek agree...

I think most are thinking that the Indices are due a sharp sell off. The question is when???

If these Indices can challenge their old highs, the sellers will gain confidence and start driving them lower. Should be interesting tomorrow if the DOW is close to the highs.

Haven't traded today as been away from PC. Lets have a cracker tomorrow.

Cheers
D

 

[ekanters]

No comprendo

No comprendo,

All headlines are negative on the economy. Here in the netherlands they expected worst case scenario a fall back of 2,5 % but it became 4,6% and the only thing wall street does is up. In other words I was totaly on the wrong side of the market. EURJPY, EURUSD, USDJPY and Lets not talk about the GBPJPY that went up 500 pips.

The CCI'S were teling me buy, buy, buy but no I had to think and when you think it all goes wrong. Next time CCI'S, CCI'S and again CCI'S.

See you tomorrow.

Erik

P.S. Its still going up. even after hours

Latest headline: *Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Said to Apply for TARP Exit *Apply to repay the combined $45 billion they received in October from TARP US stocks rally into the close on this news, SP500 currently at 909

 

[henkvanhirtum]

No comprendo,

All headlines are negative on the economy. Here in the netherlands they expected worst case scenario a fall back of 2,5 % but it became 4,6% and the only thing wall street does is up. In other words I was totaly on the wrong side of the market. EURJPY, EURUSD, USDJPY and Lets not talk about the GBPJPY that went up 500 pips.

The CCI'S were teling me buy, buy, buy but no I had to think and when you think it all goes wrong. Next time CCI'S, CCI'S and again CCI'S.

See you tomorrow.

Erik

P.S. Its still going up. even after hours

Latest headline: *Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Said to Apply for TARP Exit *Apply to repay the combined $45 billion they received in October from TARP US stocks rally into the close on this news, SP500 currently at 909

Indeed, _still_ going up, wtf?

 

[Black Swan]

Good afternoon all

Well looking back over the charts i see another day governed by the DOW.

There has been a serious lack of direction today making it very hard to trade. I will be watching the DOW very closely this evening... We could see a shorting possibility up in the high 8400s with a stop above early May highs.

Apologies for not being there but i'll definitely be in the room tomorrow.

Have a good evening.

D

Yep, 'kinda' glad it wasnt just me, although there were pips to be had on the usual currency pairs It was a struggle today....for me anyhow.

 

[tantra]

I am confused guys.. CPI is lower.. why is GBPUSD higher?

 

[danarm]

Hi

Not sure i have all the answers here... I was expecting a small retracement on the Indices and they rally! I was wrong...

I lost 30 pips on CABLE and wasnt quick enough to go long...That happens and thats life...Not going to get upset about it, as really thought the retracements would come on the Indices. Maybe this afternoon...

I own hindsight.com but its not worth owning this website as a trader (hahaha)..Always look forward as a trader and never back... Pointless as it will frustrate you.

I am flat and waiting to see where these Indices move from these highs.

Speak to u later.

D

 

[danarm]

Shouldn´t have taken a day off yesterday... 1st thing i saw was a 300 pip+ rally in dow and felt retracement..

I will make those pips back later this avo.

Keeping an eye on the JPYs closely.

D

 

[Vivek_Chhibba]

Just made a few cheeky pips on GBPUSD.. I cannot see what's keeping it higher (other than these indicies). Sold at 1.5500 and bought at 1.5460 - cannot see any techninal reasons for a higher move...









Vivek Chhibba

 

[danarm]

Hi

Ok this market is driving me nuts...

It could all go either way which makes it vv hard to trade...

We are looking for double top in USDJPY at 96.68 on 4hr chart. Remember it needs to hold below this level for any of the JPY trades to be valid..

I will be checking this at home tonight before i place any trade and will depend how the price action reacts at this level.

The DOW is vvv confusing for me and i am staying away.. A tough day for me. One trade and read it wrong in CABLE due to Indices.

Sometime u dont get that rub of the green.

D

 

[c_c405]

Big Money Steam Roller

There are big traders moving their money to GBP, CHF, AUD & CAD - Best to be patient and wait for the signals - Cable has had a good run up an may see a nice fall from here

I'm expecting a shorting opportunity on GBP/USD very soon - BoE Minutes are due

After this cycle of currencies to be powered up we will see them deflate and about 4 other currencies take the bull by the horns and defy all analysis by most traders.

Play the shorts on the strong ones and watch for decoupling - look for coupling of some

It's nice here in Hawaii A much needed break

Cheers

I'm currently long USD/CAD USD/CHF & GBP/CAD

 

[danarm]

Hi

CABLE looks set to fall but price action is too punchy at present...

DOW is falling from when Anders alerted you... I believe you have banked part around this 75 level for some tasty pips.

Other than that its been quiet for me. We will email you hopefully later tonight with a few longer term setups.

We have the email alert service up and running and we will email you our hot ideas for the day.

See u tom. What a tough day..I could have (nearly) been teased in all over the place but kept my cool and held off.

Happy to be flat and waiting for these JPY setups.

D

 

[danarm]

Lets start with the good news. The market continues to trade very welland bearing in mind the money that seems to be pouring out of moneymarket funds and towards riskier asset classes there is no reason whymany of the quasi sovs cannot tighten in further towards CDS levels.Clients worrying about underperforming their peers continue to pile in.The rally can continue until we reach potential new issuance levels andunfortunately for syndicate desks we are not quite there just yet.Spreads anywhere between 25 and 75 bp tighter, and surprisingly therewere some profit takers about despite the fact some clients seemedalmost desperate to put risk on the books. The bad news is that this rally cannot last forever. I am hearing thewall of money argument once again, I am hearing credits such as Phillyare back within 50bp of their all time tight spreads. As I said tosomeone earlier on today, the world and the markets have changed foreverhowever the market participants have not. They have short memories andfear they have missed one of the biggest rallies in history. Thereality of course is very different however for now the rally is veryreminiscent of August/September of 07 when the Fed started slashingrates. People calling the punch bowl effect, the carry trade is back onetc etc. Well today its all about green shoots of recovery and we haveseen the worse. The Uk press is doing the same thing with housing.First time buyers who were waiting as prices came off in 07 and 08 arenow piling back in fearing that they may miss the bottom and thinkingthat prices will return to 07 highs. All these arguments are laughable,spreads can but should not return to previous levels. Leverage is notwhat it used to be and fundamentals despite so called green shoots aremuch much worse. Same story with housing, ability to leverage up ismuch lower and the amount of people that have saved 25-35% deposits vscurrent offer prices are still small. People are talking about rentalyield as a reason to buy a house. Well what if rents collapse as peoplewho lose their job cant pay and migrating workers go back home becausethere are no jobs. How does the yield look if rents come off by 10 or20%! To put it simply the numbers do not add up, this is not a rallybased on fundamentals but one of hope and a fear that participants havemissed the greatest buying opportunity ever. If you believe in greenshoots I suggest your have a little trip to Ireland, Spain or Dubai andsee if you can find evidence of Spring there. As you may have guessed Idon't believe this rally. For me to become a believer I want to seeeconomic growth and real job creation (ie not by governments) and thenand only then will you hear me singing the Monkees classic most famou**** record. In addition I would like a word on Kazakhstan. We have now seendefaults of 3 major financial issuers from Kazakhstan ie Bta, Allibk andnow Astana. Despite this other Kazakh banks continue to rally in linewith the rest of the market and ignore this quite scary trend. Theconfidence in Kazakhstan is shot to bits, it will be a long time beforeinvestors return to invest in a Kazakh bank therefore is it a given thatthe authorities will support the other banks that haven't defaulted yet?Answers on a post card please, for now lets enjoy this inanity until asis always inevitable it all ends in tears, and cries of "I thought I hadlearnt my lesson this time!"

Mr P........

 

[danarm]

Hi

Well that DOW trade is finally paying off for some of you...Thats a patient game and shows you how bid this market is.

This is a tough market at these levels and we need to be very cautious up here. There is uncertainty across the board so you must remember to manage your account well. In weeks like this i wouldn't trade more than 0.25% - 0.5% on any trade. Thats the only way to survive at uncertain levels like this...

Remember there is no problem in not trading for a whole week if the setups arent there. We need to learn how to be patient and back off in the hard weeks and hit the good weeks. I have taken 1 trade this week so far and will remain patient until i am happy with the setups. As for now i am struggling to get my head round these Indices. Will be watching to see if WSFUT finds support on the 4hr 20ma.

See u in the am.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Morrning

Quite simply i have no idea how to explain this market.

I have a small position in USDJPY but otherwise i am completely flat. This market is nuts and we have to back off from it today. Golf beckons because i cant read this market.

I will be honest with you when i can´t read it!!! After a cracking week (last week), this week i feel i cant read a chart. Its not me but the levels the markets are at.

I am not trading and havent traded today and will come back tomorrow.

See u.

D

 

[danarm]

Remember trading is a long term game...You get good weeks and bad weeks and if that means not trading for the rest of the week then thats how it is.

I will only trade at the levels i am happy with.

D

 

[foredog]

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious. Tsun Tsu

 

[danarm]

He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious. Tsun Tsu

Thats a great quote...

I can´t fight and win this week (at these levels), so will fight with a golf ball instead.

D