It's All About The Pips...

[henkvanhirtum]

Hey Dan,

How can I get into the FX500 club?

Thanks for your time,

Henk.

 

[gordie2009]

Hi Gordie

Glad I could help. There's so much to think about when you start trading and I got some really great help along the way, it's good to be able to give something back.

Twowayspreads seem quite good and their spreads from 8.00am - 4.00pm on eurusd, usdjpy and audusd drop to just 1 pip, and gbpusd and eurgbp to 2 pips making them one of the most competitive spread firms around.

I hope your trading goes well.

RS

Thanks RS. Unfortunately most of paper trades are not working out this week so I might have to leave it a while now before I start for real. When I hear Danarm referring to some of the technical stuff about the charts I feel out of my depth so I am trying to get plenty of reading material to help me out. Again if you or anyone else knows of any good reading material your recommendations would be appreciated.

Cheers,

Gordie

 

[eraserhead]

Nice little trade with Emmanuel on GBPCHF for 20 pips...

I think this weeks market is consolidating and is in a sort of pause. Am I right Dan?
These are the worst days for trading, I had a lot of losses in the past during this lateral phases. Today I had only a 50% of 30 pips at 1/2 stake on auzzie (spotted by Zac) and a loss on eurjpy pre-empting a double top at the 60m20. So break even day.

Markets doesnt trend everyday, this is important to understand. The key is to have a strategy that catch big moves and make small losses or break-even during this lateral days. Other thing that help a lot in this scenarios? Yoga, believe me!

 

[c_c405]

Patience - Patience

Like Dan has mentioned before if there is no good obvious trades take the day off - Avoid the feeling of need to trade everyday. You don't have to trade every day to make good pips.

I think this weeks market is consolidating and is in a sort of pause. Am I right Dan?
These are the worst days for trading, I had a lot of losses in the past during this lateral phases. Today I had only a 50% of 30 pips at 1/2 stake on auzzie (spotted by Zac) and a loss on eurjpy pre-empting a double top at the 60m20. So break even day.

Markets doesnt trend everyday, this is important to understand. The key is to have a strategy that catch big moves and make small losses or break-even during this lateral days. Other thing that help a lot in this scenarios? Yoga, believe me!

 

[althefish]

Nasty habit!

Hi all, I seem to have developed a nasty habit of losing my hard-won morning liveroom pips in the afternoon (on my own). Must stop this!

I have now realised that the hourly chart doesn't just give direction but really clear levels of support and resistance to trade from and between. Wow, what a revelation, seems obvious now but I think I really didn't understand this until now.

So, I put this newfound knowledge to the test this afternoon; noting that cable had encountered major resistance around the 4hr 50ma 3 times already I went short from 14669 with stop above DR1, then went swimming with Julie and my little girl. I've just got back to find 60 pips in the bag (my TP was above the DP)!!!:clap:

I've made back the pips I lost and learnt more valuable lessons to boot. I feel like I've been given a reprieve and had better not waste it (or my pips).

See you in the morning folks.

Al

 

[danarm]

So apparently the US consumer is feeling quite confident at the moment?Has this number got anything to do with the fact that the stock markethas been rallying almost non stop for 2 months and politicians andcorporate CEO's have been watering the so called green shoots? Sorry asmuch as I love a good rally, I think its time to take a grip on reality.The reality is that there is a flu epidemic upon us. The reality isthat there was a WSJ story out this morning about BOFA and Citirequiring yet more capital. DB numbers on the face of it looked greathowever the scale of write-down's continue to increase at a faster ratethan the so called experts are forecasting. These same so calledexperts are forecasting that we have seen the worse and everything isfine and dandy. My market is in denial at the moment, we have anexpected bankruptcy/restructuring for Allibk and Btas, we have hadmultiple local defaults and we now have a potential Kazanorgsintezrestructuring (Did the consent 10 months ago). I have a few simplequestions to ask? How many banks have loan exposures to these names andwhere are they marked? These are the first probable defaults in myregion, does it set a precedent, does willingness to pay become anissue? I think the market has not asked itself these questions of lateand maybe I am being a little premature, however at some stage thisyear, my questions will be very relevant. A little more window dressingtomorrow and then its put your feet on the desks or go on holiday for afew days. I'm off home to look for some green shoots in my garden.

Mr P.....

 

[danarm]

Hi

Some interesting posts today which is good to see.

I have been snowed under today so will reply tom properly. CABLE and GBPCHF were two clear trades this avo for double tops. Other than that i wouldnt have touched a bean. Al i think u took that CABLE trade. Well done...You are absolutely right about the 60min chart with its accuracy for S & R.

I do all my tech analysis on this and only look at 5 or 15 for an entry.

You know my thoughts re trading after the 1st 3 hours of the day for novice traders..Anders and I will get this London Open rocking and rolling with EURUSD and CABLE each day. At the end of the day if you can make 50 to 100 pips on these two currency pairs, who needs to trade after 9.30am. I certainly don't...

Keep it simple and dont over trade. Pips come when you are patient and wait for good setups!

See u tom team...

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Thanks RS. Unfortunately most of paper trades are not working out this week so I might have to leave it a while now before I start for real. When I hear Danarm referring to some of the technical stuff about the charts I feel out of my depth so I am trying to get plenty of reading material to help me out. Again if you or anyone else knows of any good reading material your recommendations would be appreciated.

Cheers,

Gordie

Hi Gordie

Some people learn to trade in a twinkling of an eye, for others it takes a bit longer. Keep reading through the threads, study Dan's charts over and over and it will slowly come together. There's no rush, the charts will always be moving.

Hope the pm helps.

Keep in touch.

RS

 

[danarm]

Good morning

There is a serous lack of direction is these markets.

Wall St has hovered around 8,000 for over a week now and CABLE around 1.4600.

I have closed my 40% balance on USDJPY on break of the 60min 50ma. Now flat again!

CABLE
• Looks like the WP wants to hold as support now and not resistance.
• Trend is still unsure so reduce risk
• Last night would have been a great long trade. Any long trade needs a stop below 1.4630 so a pullback to the 1.4660/65 region would be a good long play for a 30/35 pip risk.

GBPJPY
• WP holding at resistance at 143.00. Any break with a 123 on 15min will be a good long play.
• However there is a silver cross 141.60 so a stop needs to be below here around 141.40 if we pre-empt this break.
• If CABLE and GBPJPY can retrace we should look for a long play from the 141.80 region for a 40 pip risk targeting WP and its break.

Verdict
• GBP technically looks stronger than yesterday and looking for a buying opportunity with sensible risk.
• Would like to use the 60min trigger if possible.
• EURUSD looks well supported with weak USD and again would like to use 60min trigger.

 

[danarm]

Hi

Couldn´t touch anything out there this am...Asia had the entries and didnt fancy 100 pip stop losses. I am loving CABLE but need to get my entry right. It will come and i will nail it but going to be patient.

We looked for entries on GBPJPY and EURJPY but they didnt come into our buy zone...

Only trade we took was USDJPY and lost 17 pips. I pre empted a break for a silver cross but it was too early. I will get my chance again as explained in the room and i will nail this one. (Closed my remaining short 40% yesterday in UJ from 98.30)..Lovely!!!

Better to be safe than sorry!!! (No pun included!!!)

All flat and raring to go...Bring on those pips!!!

See u later.

D

 

[danarm]

Maybe i am a mix between an orangutan and buzz light year?

hahaha

D

 

[danarm]

Arghhhh. Not going to get annoyed.

Risk reward is always key in this game. We knew Silver crosses were there for the taking but stop losses were too wide.

Patience i say...An opening will come on GBP and EUR and we will pounce with limited risk!

D

 

[danarm]

Ok my patience hasnt paid off today...

I read the trends in GBP, EUR & USD currencies spot on but the risk on entries were too high. I went for those slightly better entries and i missed the lot!!! A prize plum!!!

Gorilla is peeved!!! Huff, huff, huff...

Off for an early lunch

D

 

[jel31]

piccies

Maybe i am a mix between an orangutan and buzz light year?

hahaha

D

ha ha I have got a very wierd mental picture of what you look like now Dan!

Maybe we need a real "team photo" All these people I spend my mornings with and have no idea what they look like!

Andy suggested putting our photos on here as our avatars which is a great idea, the cryptic versions are cool too though...

By the way, Al's avatar of Billy the Fish is a surprisingly good resemblance

Right, going to leave the computer now and get on my bike to work, will keep checking CABLE though, would love to see a beautiful retracement on the hourly, nice little SL behind golden cross, then wooosh!

Catch you later

Julie

 

[danarm]

GBP offered an entry for a long at 85 region off the 60min 20ma...Kiss strategy!!!

This obviously depends on your view but i like GBP higher as u know. 1.4800/50 needs to break over the next 24 hours.

See u later.

D

 

[danarm]

100 not out and the market continues to rally in celebration of Barack'scentury. At the same time US GDP only came in at -6.1% another reasonto be cheery and buy yet more stocks and risky assets. Sovereign CDS inmy world is starting to price very little default probability inanything and at the moment there are no natural buyers of CDSwhatsoever. If there are no buyers and people already have it (ie arelong), we know which way its going to trade from here! Corporates onthe most part have lagged this move however if this euphoria continuesthen its inevitable they play catch up in the coming days. It's the FOMC tonight, I mistakenly ignored the relevance of the lastone however tonight's one should be a non event unless the Fed step uptheir QE policy to accommodate corporate bonds much like the BOE. Ifthey decide to follow the BOE then the current rally we are seeing incredit can continue. Of course as a grumpy bear I don't believe thisrally at all however I do except today's price action is positivehowever you cant ignore the fact its month end the general consensus isthat everyone wants/hopes the market will rally. Month end tomorrow sousual shenanigans marks etc, followed by a very dull end to the week onMay day. Big game on the telly tonight, come on you Yellows.

Mr P.....

 

[danarm]

Want to see this CABLE up to 1.4950 by friday.

Lets see what happens with the Fed.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Orangutan Dan

Maybe i am a mix between an orangutan and buzz light year?

hahaha

D

Hi Dan

Mornings in the room are great, but they are now that much better thinking you look like an orangutan in a "funky" shirt and cowboy boots!

Glad you like the pic so much, it suits you!

Actually, you're kind of cute, oh ohh, bit of a crush going on...

RS

 

[danarm]

A bit of a crush???? Well if thats a real photo of you then..................!!!! (Stop it Dan!!!)

Been out for dinner with the old man and come back to no change by Fed and CABLE and USDJPY holding up well.

Come on Asia drive these two up. I should have hit GBPJPY to be honest but missed the entry.

Can't win them all. Hopefully look to add to both positions tom am.

See u at 6.30am.

D

 

[danarm]

I know a few of u r in CABLE and USDJPY so play this sensibly.

You should have banked a little in USDJPY and CABLE already and we should be able to get back in early tom.

I do expect a small retracement overnight and then get a big push tom.

See u early.

D