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danarm
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Percy panic on the open as the whole world (ok slight exaggeration)wanted to sell the bonds it bought last week for a loss. Bonds off by1-3pts and customers following suit. As bad as liquidity was on theway up, it wasn't much better on the downside. VTB 18s allegedly themost liquid corporate bond off 3 pts trading around 1.5mio total on theway down. Nothing of note to report on the G7 side, gardeners continue to getexcited about so called green shoots and US corporate earnings onbalance continue to come in on the upside vs analysts gloomy estimates.Today was a good test for my stuff and for stocks as to whether this wasjust profit taking or something more sinister. Stocks passed it (sofar) with flying colours, EM corps are in detention but have not beenexpelled just yet. As much as I don't believe the rally or the basisfor it I also don't think this is the beginning of the next pukefestjust yet. Keep on watering those green shoots, you never know they maygrow into small plants or saplings!
Mr P.....
Mr P.....
danarm
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Good morning all
Budget release at 12.30pm and we also have MPC Minutes, Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings, Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9.30am this morning.
Something tells me GBP could be quite difficult to trade today so let’s be extra vigilant and only enter when we are happy with the risk. A difficult day yesterday and lesson learnt is to only enter when you are happy with the 60min chart and direction.
CABLE
• The 60min chart is key. We have broken major support and the market will be looking for a double top around the 1.4700 for a potential move lower.
• It is budget day so every trader around the world will be waiting for the release.
• I recommend that we back off this morning unless a peach comes our way and the risk is minimal.
EURUSD
• Clear support around the 1.2900 level and we should watch for a break.
• The EUR is technically still weak and I am still holding 50% of my position from Friday with a stop above the 4hr 20ma.
• The 60min 20MA is flat and direction is lost so lets look for retracement to the 4hr 20ma and then we can look for a play off the that.
• I still like it lower but very hard to enter here in an oscillating market.
EURGBP
• Clear support at the 0.8800 level and still short with stop above the 0.9000 level.
• We need direction in CABLE before we can play this.
JPYs
• Support at WS1 in USDJPY at the 97.95 level.
• I feel USDJPY has lost a little direction in the last 48 hours so again lets be patient for the USD to show her way.
• Technically the JPY is there to strengthen again but the market needs to pullback to the 4hr 20mas before a continuation move.
Verdict
• My sensible head is telling me to back off today unless we see a very clear trade.
• GBPUSD is the one teasing me. We now have confirmed resistance at 1.4700 so we can use that and have a stop behind. A double top would confirm a change in direction and GBP could fall and test the lows again. Budget however will make the market nervous. Saying that I can´t imagine the budget will be particularly strong.
Budget release at 12.30pm and we also have MPC Minutes, Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings, Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9.30am this morning.
Something tells me GBP could be quite difficult to trade today so let’s be extra vigilant and only enter when we are happy with the risk. A difficult day yesterday and lesson learnt is to only enter when you are happy with the 60min chart and direction.
CABLE
• The 60min chart is key. We have broken major support and the market will be looking for a double top around the 1.4700 for a potential move lower.
• It is budget day so every trader around the world will be waiting for the release.
• I recommend that we back off this morning unless a peach comes our way and the risk is minimal.
EURUSD
• Clear support around the 1.2900 level and we should watch for a break.
• The EUR is technically still weak and I am still holding 50% of my position from Friday with a stop above the 4hr 20ma.
• The 60min 20MA is flat and direction is lost so lets look for retracement to the 4hr 20ma and then we can look for a play off the that.
• I still like it lower but very hard to enter here in an oscillating market.
EURGBP
• Clear support at the 0.8800 level and still short with stop above the 0.9000 level.
• We need direction in CABLE before we can play this.
JPYs
• Support at WS1 in USDJPY at the 97.95 level.
• I feel USDJPY has lost a little direction in the last 48 hours so again lets be patient for the USD to show her way.
• Technically the JPY is there to strengthen again but the market needs to pullback to the 4hr 20mas before a continuation move.
Verdict
• My sensible head is telling me to back off today unless we see a very clear trade.
• GBPUSD is the one teasing me. We now have confirmed resistance at 1.4700 so we can use that and have a stop behind. A double top would confirm a change in direction and GBP could fall and test the lows again. Budget however will make the market nervous. Saying that I can´t imagine the budget will be particularly strong.
danarm
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Good morning all
As you all know its budget day and boy do the government need a good one. Will that push GBP higher who knows!!!
Some of us are short...As explained to the group 1.4710 is resistance and double top is written all over it. Therefore its all about where you enter on the short play...Some short at 40, 50, 60 and even 70 depending on their risk profile. I only managed one short play at 63 with aim to sell evey 10 pips with stop at 25. I understand for many that would be too higher risk and thats why some held off for a higher price at say 80 with only a 40 pip risk but as we know those orders didnt get filled. Thats trading and good on you guys for only trading when u r comfortable with the risk.
Pips were made in CABLE, GBPJPY, EURUSD, EURJPY and USDJPY which is gd to see with all trading with the trend.
Clive and a few others (not me) hit GBPJPY instead of CABLE (similar looking chart) and made some great pips shorting from the doubletop at the 4hr 20ma.
Well done team and great trading... I also respect peoples decisions not to trade around the budget.
Figures in 3 mins.
D
As you all know its budget day and boy do the government need a good one. Will that push GBP higher who knows!!!
Some of us are short...As explained to the group 1.4710 is resistance and double top is written all over it. Therefore its all about where you enter on the short play...Some short at 40, 50, 60 and even 70 depending on their risk profile. I only managed one short play at 63 with aim to sell evey 10 pips with stop at 25. I understand for many that would be too higher risk and thats why some held off for a higher price at say 80 with only a 40 pip risk but as we know those orders didnt get filled. Thats trading and good on you guys for only trading when u r comfortable with the risk.
Pips were made in CABLE, GBPJPY, EURUSD, EURJPY and USDJPY which is gd to see with all trading with the trend.
Clive and a few others (not me) hit GBPJPY instead of CABLE (similar looking chart) and made some great pips shorting from the doubletop at the 4hr 20ma.
Well done team and great trading... I also respect peoples decisions not to trade around the budget.
Figures in 3 mins.
D
danarm
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B
Black Swan
danarm
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So captain Darling had his day in the lime light. Like Obama, he didwhat we all feared he would do and stuck taxes up for the higherearners. We knew it was coming and politically it makes littledifference to him and his battered party as the higher earners voter haslong gone to the blue side. You may ask what has this go to do withEMEA corps and you have a point however the message is clear.Governments all over the world have to find money from somewhere to payfor this sh*te show and unfortunately the printing presses are bust andthe money tree is bear, as always its back to the poor old hard workingtax payer to pay the bill. Why is this relevant, well quite simply taxeveryone to hill, less money to spend and years of negligible growth.Green shoots will become dead brown roots quicker than you can sayGordon Brown is a one eyed idiot (quote from Jeremy Clarkson not mehonest!). Bottom line "we" (we meaning workers as opposed to lazylottery ticket buying income support spongers!) are going to have to payfor this mess not to mention the huge pension deficits that are onlygetting bigger as we live longer and our shortfalls get larger. Thenuts and bolts of all this means that we are not going to return togrowth numbers we enjoyed in the first part of this decade for companiesor for countries and that's not good for stocks and for risky assets ingeneral.As far as EM is concerned I am starting to lose a little interest atcurrent levels. Oil trading like Labour in the opinion polls andspreads in my view NOT reflecting the risks out there for EM if everyonewakes up smells the coffee and slashes their growth forecasts for thenext 10 years. Sell when you can not when you have to!
Mr P......
Mr P......
danarm
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Good morning all
I am flat in both books and closed EURUSD and EURGBP.
The markets have had a good shake up with the budget so let’s wait for clear direction before trading.
CABLE
• Boxed between the Daily 20ma and 50ma.
• The 4hr 20ma has crossed the Daily 20ma (Silver Cross) suggesting further weakness
• Heavy resistance at 1.4600
• Look for a small double top on the 15min chart to confirm a trend reversal around the 1.4580 level with a stop above 1.4625.
• As we speak GBP has broken the 60min 20ma so be patient and let the market play games in the high 1.4500s before we enter on the break back below the 60min 20ma.
• If GBP breaks back above the 1.4625 then all short plays are off.
EURUSD
• The EUR has found support off 1.2900 and now again at 1.3000.
• 1.3037 is old high and a small amount of sellers will be sitting around here for double top
• The Silver cross is coming into play on this retracement but I am not convinced as yet with EUR strength.
• Will wait for break and pullback onto the 4hr20ma before any long play.
• Any break back below the 1.2960 level will signal the next push lower for EUR.
EURGBP
• Can´t sell into the 60min 20ma at this level.
• Wait for break with 123 on 5min chart to confirm the retracement is on.
I am flat in both books and closed EURUSD and EURGBP.
The markets have had a good shake up with the budget so let’s wait for clear direction before trading.
CABLE
• Boxed between the Daily 20ma and 50ma.
• The 4hr 20ma has crossed the Daily 20ma (Silver Cross) suggesting further weakness
• Heavy resistance at 1.4600
• Look for a small double top on the 15min chart to confirm a trend reversal around the 1.4580 level with a stop above 1.4625.
• As we speak GBP has broken the 60min 20ma so be patient and let the market play games in the high 1.4500s before we enter on the break back below the 60min 20ma.
• If GBP breaks back above the 1.4625 then all short plays are off.
EURUSD
• The EUR has found support off 1.2900 and now again at 1.3000.
• 1.3037 is old high and a small amount of sellers will be sitting around here for double top
• The Silver cross is coming into play on this retracement but I am not convinced as yet with EUR strength.
• Will wait for break and pullback onto the 4hr20ma before any long play.
• Any break back below the 1.2960 level will signal the next push lower for EUR.
EURGBP
• Can´t sell into the 60min 20ma at this level.
• Wait for break with 123 on 5min chart to confirm the retracement is on.
danarm
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Good monrning all
A slightly different approach today as markets need a little shake out after the Budget. Trends have been lost so all we did is play a channel in CABLE.
Resistance at 1.4600 and support at 1.4520... Most made between 40 and 60 so happy with the results. Well done team!
Short at 1.4580 banked 50% at 57
Short at 1.4580 banked 50% at 53
All out at 1.4557
Short at 1.4587 banked 50% at 78 and then 50% at 62
Short at 1.4560 banked 50% at 37
Still short part with stop at 1.4610.
Not a bad day and a little bit of variety into the London Open. I will be sharing a few different techniques in the room over the coming weeks.
Well done today and u deserve your pips this morning.
Dan
A slightly different approach today as markets need a little shake out after the Budget. Trends have been lost so all we did is play a channel in CABLE.
Resistance at 1.4600 and support at 1.4520... Most made between 40 and 60 so happy with the results. Well done team!
Short at 1.4580 banked 50% at 57
Short at 1.4580 banked 50% at 53
All out at 1.4557
Short at 1.4587 banked 50% at 78 and then 50% at 62
Short at 1.4560 banked 50% at 37
Still short part with stop at 1.4610.
Not a bad day and a little bit of variety into the London Open. I will be sharing a few different techniques in the room over the coming weeks.
Well done today and u deserve your pips this morning.
Dan
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