It's All About The Pips...

[BSD]

Hehe.

Well done Dan.

I go walking very fast for at least half an hour most days of the week, and twice a week 15 min sessions on a power plate at home, and that is enough to ensure that I pretty much weigh what I did when I was 20.

I guess most people lose it because they think they need to do 3 hours in a gym per day.

But that's just nonsense.

Less is more.

Long as you burn more than you take in you're fine.

Haha how did we end up here btw.

 

[mauzj]

Is everyone comparing gym routines now?

I go and sit in a Jecuzzi for 30 minutes every morning. And then punch a bag until my knuckles get too bruised for more.

 

[ramrob]

pipspipspipspipspips

Sooooooooooooooo. Heres my amateur analysis/question:


if you look at the usd/jpy and aud/jpy at around 1315 EST they both drop heavily. And then the eur/usd does so, albeit not quite as severely, about half hour later. Do you think these moves correspond? Could that drop in the yen be a valuable indicator for eur/usd or does that not correlate well? As far as fundamentals go I am clueless as to how those currency pairs may affect each other so please enlighten me. :|And i'm pretty clueless in general, really.


And since i have little to offer in the way of trading advice, heres a little recipe for my favorite cocktail

1/4 Grapefruit juice
1/4 vodka (Svedka is good bang for buck if you ask me)
1/2 clubsoda

I call it the Fizzhound

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Ah we have life back on here....That makes me happy!!!

All the expected breakouts have happened over night.

EURUSD has broken the 4hr triangle from 1.3000 and is now on its way to 1.3500. Look to buy on dips as this will remain supported for now.

CABLE - GBP had a consolidation day yesterday in the build up to the breakout. Look at the shape of the 4hr 20ma and 50ma. It was squeezing togther and had to break. As mentioned in the room yest as long as it stays above the support line only look for longs. It has now broken so look to buy on dips until it breaks the support.


USDCAD - Again look at the squeeze of the 4hr 20ma and 50ma. It could have popped but the triple top on teh 4hr chart said it all. Its now broken the support and looks weak down to the WS1 at 1.2360. Look to sell on any rises.


AUDUSD - Needs to break the 0.6700 res level but looks well supported down at 0.6600. Look for the break and move up to the res.


NZDUSD - Again this looks bid.Look for the break of the 0.5500 and a 123 play.


GOLD - This was the winner for me yesterday and made some good pips with this. I again like this higher and will retest the $1000 level again soon.

Enjoy
Dan

 

[danarm]

USDCAD and AUDUSD

Hi all

What a trade in USDCAD... Still holding most of the position after banking part at the Monthly Pivot. AUDUSD also looks good on the upside and most are long from 0.6620 level. What a day and what a month and its only the 11th.

Keep up the good work in the room guys and great short trade in USDJPY earlier today.

Speak to you tomorrow.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Well what can i say... A great day yesterday and was loking forward to holding my USDCAD after being up a few hundred pips but i come in this am and the USDCAD balance was triggered on the break back above 1.2300. The AUDUSD looked very strong early doors and locked in 125 pips ahead of WS3 on 50% but then stopped out the balance at breakeven.

I am all flat now and after the US collapsing on the $14 Billion car bail out project, the USD looks weak again with USDJPY looking the best of the lot. The JPY is def the best pick of a weak currency market. The good news is i didnt lose pips but really felt the AUD was going to have a bit of a run. Will reassestoday and see what happens.

GOLD is on a natural retracement after such a strong move. (Probably why the AUD weakened). The short term charts are boxed in between the MA´s so wait for a break. Still like it higher but wait for the ma´s to give you that direction.

EURGBP is bid. Stay with the trend and buy on dips.

AUDUSD - Flat now and will wait for next move. It really needs GOLD to make another move up for it to show strength but until the 15min chart turns around i will stay out of this.

USDCAD is back up at the 1.2500 level which is where it broke from yesterday. Only look for a long if it breaks the WP but as it stands it looks like a small pulback is needed.

EURUSD - This so needs to pullback. I hesitated on the break and didnt take the long but as it stands if it breaks the DP and 60min 20ma could signal a move back to the WR3.

CABLE - Its trying to get punchy but i´m not convinced. Still technically u should be buying on dips as the 4hr 20ma has crossed teh 4hr 50ma. Wait for ma´s to line up then hit it.

Cheers all. Been a great week but frustrated not to turn AUDUSD into a big 500+ trade. It looked so promising and then WR3 came into play. See how important these pivots are. A good lesson is to always put profit targets around 30-50pips below them as they wont always get up there. Example on the NZDUSD. I banked 50% at 0.5560 ahead of the monthly pivot at 0.5590 level. the balance then fell back to breakeven where my stop was. Yes the trade never maximised but i still make 85 pips on the 1st move and dont lose any on the balance as stop is at breakeven. I very rarely go to ged without the stop at breakeven so i can sleep in peace!!!

Ok enjoy,.

Dan

 

[yellowlion]

Don't get too enthusiastic on Dollar/Yen D. It won't see 85.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

And then punch a bag until my knuckles get too bruised for more.

i assume you use someone else's granny, not your own surely ?

 

[mauzj]

i assume you use someone else's granny, not your own surely ?

Someone else's granny? Is this a new form of cockney rhyming slang that I'm not aware of?

 

[ramrob]

noobalicious

hey folks. paper trading the gbp/usd on oanda against dans better judgement but doing ok. having fun at least, i guess thats the joy of paper trading. Anyhoo...can anybody give me their spiel on pivots and how they are calculated and why they are important and all that? it's a new concept to me.

 

[danarm]

Gbpchf & Eurusd

Afternoon all

Had a fryup...Not good for my diet!!!

The mornings trades were GBPCHF and EURUSD break.

Most of the team made 40 - 60 pips on GBPCHF and 40 - 60 pips on EURUSD.

Nice and simple and played the breaks.

Happy pip hunting.

Dan

 

[mauzj]

Hi Dan,

How do you decide when to exit a trade? and what sort of stop sizes do you tend to use?

Thanks,

Mauzj.

 

[danarm]

Hi

I use my pivot levels as targets...

Stop sizes do vary depending on the trade. Eg what market i trade. I way up where the resistance and support levels are b4 i enter the trade and if it is a sensible stop eg generally within 100 pips then i will take the trade.

Have a great weekend.

Nice little break on GOLD this afternoon.

Dan

 

[Rollingstone]

Saucy Forex Education

Hi All

Thanks Dan for another week of fantastic forex analysis. It's been a great week you said, looked like a bloomin marvellous week to me with some delicious trades on EURUSD and Gold especially.

Your education and enlightenment continues...

In my ignorance I was a "start at the bottom and work my way up" kinda gal, if you know what I mean. But you have shown me the Monkey way and I am now fully converted and will definitely be starting at the top and working my way down for evermore.

Mmmmmm mmmmm... it's those 4 hour charts, those 60m charts, those 15m charts and only if need be the 5m charts.

I was blinkered and blinded by the 5mins, now I am just loving those 4 hourly and especially the 60mins and 15min charts.

Gad, I just love this forex.

Off to put some sauce on my mince pies now, ooh, and a little glass of something sparkly to wash it down.

Thanks Santa Dan and hey, bin the diet it's Christmas, you probably deserve a fry-up. There's nothing tastier than Forex with Dan (chcolate comes close) but a fry-up is certainly tastier than a stick of celery and there's nothing sadder than seeing a guy with a limp lettuce leaf (not that I ever have ).

Christmas Saucy RS

Hee hee, nearly Christmas...

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Rollingstone can you change your profile pic... It keeps distracting me from my morning analysis!!! (Actualy leave it...I look forward to seeing it each morning..

I hope you are all well... I cooked an amazing roast beef yesterday with all the trimmings. You would have been impressed.

OIL - Looks supported off the DP but needs to break the 4hr 50ma for a clear break higher to test the WR1 level. Any break below the WP would signal a solid break lower.

GOLD - 834 is the old high. Will it break or pullback? It looks supported but the short term charts suggest a morning pullback. See if it can hold the 15min 20ma if not a pullback to the 60min 20ma.

EURUSD - Whata 4hr triangle breakout. Still kicking myself for not jumping into that. I read it perfectly but didnt place the trade. That will kick me until the end of the year. Looks well supported and as long as it stays above the 15min 20ma stay with the trendand buy on dips.

CABLE - Still like this lower but will probaly sit around the 1.5000 till JAn..Who knows. Potential double top looming on 4hr chart. A break below the WP will signal a test of the support at 1.4800 and a break of 1.4800 will signal the next push to the lows at 1.4500.

USDCAD - Looks weak again. Needs to break the MP as this is huge support. Look to sell on rallies.

EURUGBP - Its bid. Dont get silly trying to sell this on pullbacks as it is met with huge demand. My coffees each morning cost me a fortuen and would love to see this lower but thibk parity will get hit by early next year.

AUDUSD - If GOLD remains supported look to buy on dips. Lots of support at 0.6600 and 0.6625 with DP and WP. Might be a cheeky long here.

Ok have fun...Its the Christmas build up and must take the guys out for a long lunch on friday.

Its also the end of the year and i count all my pips on the last friday b4 christmas...Interesting to see what the final amount is.

Enjoy
Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Quiet morning on GBP and only been scalping EURUSD.

Small pullback to 60min 20ma and then small long play on break of the 15min 20ma.

Quiet out there but banked a few cheeky pips.

DOW fell off nicely but didnt take it.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Usdcad

Afternoon

I mentioned in my report to sell USDCAD on any rallies. The stoch came back into place and the double top showed us the reversal.

The Monthly Pivot has now been broken and now 100 points lower from the 1st break.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Cable

Afternoon

CABLE could be cheeky and close the gap to the MP on the 4 hour chart as long as it holds support.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Gbpjpy

Afternoon

Keep an eye on GBPJPY break with GBP strength.

Its so good....

Thanks

Dan

 

[danarm]

Cable

Hi

What a day!!! The markets behaved and GBP was a monster!!!

If only everyday was like this one.

Well traded today...Hundreds of pips available and a great start to the week.

Dan