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danarm
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Morning all
Its chaos out there.. Not a fun place to be...
Mr Darling is assuring is the that he is doing his best but when the market is frozen and no one wants to lend the whole financial system fails.
We have seen some big falls in Brent crude yesterday down to 83.50. An aggressive upside break of 85.70 with a 123 move may see a play to 88. Alternatively, if the 252 CCI can break above 0 the fall back through with the 63 CCI. We have seen some significant selling on the longer term crude so I would be concerned about a shot at this level.
As I type crude has broken the 85.70 level, we would like to see it slightly higher just to show some price action, let the 5 minute moving averages catch up with a possible play to 87.50/88 area if it is going to materialize.
Gold is boxed in above the weekly pivot and looks attractive to the upside if crude moves higher. There is some resistance above at 865 area and the 4 hour 20 and 871.
EURUSD has fallen a significant way and has broken the 1hr 20 MA to the upside. If gold moves higher we could see an attack towards 1.3660 but be carefull...We need momentum.
Cable is setup similar to EURUSD, in that it has broken the 1 hour 20 MA. I would be looking a break of the immediate highs at 1.7640 with a retracement to the 1 hour 50 MA before looking for a long position.
Good luck today...Its def not a market to jump in heavy handed.
Speak in a bit...
Finding it hard to continue posting and trading so might just post on one blog rather than 2. Will keep u posted.
D
Its chaos out there.. Not a fun place to be...
Mr Darling is assuring is the that he is doing his best but when the market is frozen and no one wants to lend the whole financial system fails.
We have seen some big falls in Brent crude yesterday down to 83.50. An aggressive upside break of 85.70 with a 123 move may see a play to 88. Alternatively, if the 252 CCI can break above 0 the fall back through with the 63 CCI. We have seen some significant selling on the longer term crude so I would be concerned about a shot at this level.
As I type crude has broken the 85.70 level, we would like to see it slightly higher just to show some price action, let the 5 minute moving averages catch up with a possible play to 87.50/88 area if it is going to materialize.
Gold is boxed in above the weekly pivot and looks attractive to the upside if crude moves higher. There is some resistance above at 865 area and the 4 hour 20 and 871.
EURUSD has fallen a significant way and has broken the 1hr 20 MA to the upside. If gold moves higher we could see an attack towards 1.3660 but be carefull...We need momentum.
Cable is setup similar to EURUSD, in that it has broken the 1 hour 20 MA. I would be looking a break of the immediate highs at 1.7640 with a retracement to the 1 hour 50 MA before looking for a long position.
Good luck today...Its def not a market to jump in heavy handed.
Speak in a bit...
Finding it hard to continue posting and trading so might just post on one blog rather than 2. Will keep u posted.
D
danarm
Experienced member
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Hi all
Sorry for my lack of chat recently but been snowed under...I hope you enjoy the morning report but as of tomorrow i am going to concentrate on the 2 threads below, as i cant seem to manage 10 things at once in the morning as well as place my trades. I thought i would struggle...
If you have any questions please email [email protected]
As mentioned i will be on the 2 threads below, on a daily basis, so you can always catch me there.
School of Pimpology - Page 106 - Forex Trading
The London Open - Page 97 - Forex Trading | MetaTrader Indicators and Expert Advisors
Keep in touch and for those who want to join the chat and join the fun, please email the Pimp or private message me at the FXfisherman...
Speak soon
D
Sorry for my lack of chat recently but been snowed under...I hope you enjoy the morning report but as of tomorrow i am going to concentrate on the 2 threads below, as i cant seem to manage 10 things at once in the morning as well as place my trades. I thought i would struggle...
If you have any questions please email [email protected]
As mentioned i will be on the 2 threads below, on a daily basis, so you can always catch me there.
School of Pimpology - Page 106 - Forex Trading
The London Open - Page 97 - Forex Trading | MetaTrader Indicators and Expert Advisors
Keep in touch and for those who want to join the chat and join the fun, please email the Pimp or private message me at the FXfisherman...
Speak soon
D
danarm
Experienced member
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Hi all
We have seen some great movement this am and some nice and controlled trading.
EURUSD (Banked 30ish) and USDCHF were the most obvious and 40 pips were taken on CABLE late morning. We also took 40 on USDJPY on the break down. Not bad so banking over 100 pips today.
Keep in touch in the live chat. Come and join us.
D
We have seen some great movement this am and some nice and controlled trading.
EURUSD (Banked 30ish) and USDCHF were the most obvious and 40 pips were taken on CABLE late morning. We also took 40 on USDJPY on the break down. Not bad so banking over 100 pips today.
Keep in touch in the live chat. Come and join us.
D
danarm
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Good morning all. Thought i would keep in touch with a morning briefing. See you in the chat room.
I do hope some of you managed to get on the EURUSD trade(s) mentioned yesterday morning. There was a nice 120 pips on offer there.
Alright, it was not so easy as the Swiss of Wednesday but with the double-edged sword one could have picked up 70 going long on the break of the 1.3710, and then later, a short on the break of that support line we drew on the chart at around the 1.36 level for another 50 or so, which one could still be holding.
Lots of action to report overnight.
Having shorted Oil through the pivot at $83 yesterday and closed for 40, jokingly said “watch it go to $80 now. What did it do? Grrrrrrrr. Hate it when that happens.
Currently trading at $79.20.
Gold had retraced part of it’s big drive of Wednesday, but is now in a very dominant position to take-on $1000 in the forthcoming weeks.
Currently trading at $915 I will be buying any bounces off the 60m 20.
The correlation indicator needs tweaking a bit me thinks. EVERYTHING is going down.
Those who have never read my early works will possibly know the best markets to trade when this is happening.
Those who do will know that when EURUSD and USDCHF are trading in the same direction then EURCHF is a good pair to trade.
When EURUSD and USDJPY move the same way then EURJPY is the horse to be on. GBPUSD and USDJPY moving in similar fashion will see GBPJPY move aggressively and so on.
This morning actually doesn’t look quite as interesting as it has all been smashed into by the eastern massive.
The best set-up for me is the Swiss once again.
Forgetting correlation the Swiss is destined, in my opinion to hit the weekly pivot at around the 1.1150 with people pumping money into Swiss Francs and Gold.
The only issue I have here is an entry. Ideally I am looking for an entry around 1.1260 but since I am once again writing from the car I don’t have any internet connection and can’t see anything other than my 60m chart, but that’s the plan.
Have a good morning
I do hope some of you managed to get on the EURUSD trade(s) mentioned yesterday morning. There was a nice 120 pips on offer there.
Alright, it was not so easy as the Swiss of Wednesday but with the double-edged sword one could have picked up 70 going long on the break of the 1.3710, and then later, a short on the break of that support line we drew on the chart at around the 1.36 level for another 50 or so, which one could still be holding.
Lots of action to report overnight.
Having shorted Oil through the pivot at $83 yesterday and closed for 40, jokingly said “watch it go to $80 now. What did it do? Grrrrrrrr. Hate it when that happens.
Currently trading at $79.20.
Gold had retraced part of it’s big drive of Wednesday, but is now in a very dominant position to take-on $1000 in the forthcoming weeks.
Currently trading at $915 I will be buying any bounces off the 60m 20.
The correlation indicator needs tweaking a bit me thinks. EVERYTHING is going down.
Those who have never read my early works will possibly know the best markets to trade when this is happening.
Those who do will know that when EURUSD and USDCHF are trading in the same direction then EURCHF is a good pair to trade.
When EURUSD and USDJPY move the same way then EURJPY is the horse to be on. GBPUSD and USDJPY moving in similar fashion will see GBPJPY move aggressively and so on.
This morning actually doesn’t look quite as interesting as it has all been smashed into by the eastern massive.
The best set-up for me is the Swiss once again.
Forgetting correlation the Swiss is destined, in my opinion to hit the weekly pivot at around the 1.1150 with people pumping money into Swiss Francs and Gold.
The only issue I have here is an entry. Ideally I am looking for an entry around 1.1260 but since I am once again writing from the car I don’t have any internet connection and can’t see anything other than my 60m chart, but that’s the plan.
Have a good morning
Dans chat room
I recommend to anyone following this thread to take a look at the live and interactive trading Dan
smart refers to (every day from 7am UK time)
I 'looked in' on Friday and found the whole thing very professional and extremely helpful for the newbie trader. Not only does Dan describe to you exactly what he is doing & why, you can also question him at the same time. I was surprised and impressed at how well 80 ish individuals can all communicate in real time.
If Dan's style of chart (as posted on this thread) is new to you (it was to me with 3 sets of CCI's, a plethora of averages and pivot points, not to mention the white background and 'averaged candles') it becomes much more user friendly, much more quickly if you watch him as he reads it and explains his interpretation of it.
good trading to all
Paul
I recommend to anyone following this thread to take a look at the live and interactive trading Dan
smart refers to (every day from 7am UK time)I 'looked in' on Friday and found the whole thing very professional and extremely helpful for the newbie trader. Not only does Dan describe to you exactly what he is doing & why, you can also question him at the same time. I was surprised and impressed at how well 80 ish individuals can all communicate in real time.
If Dan's style of chart (as posted on this thread) is new to you (it was to me with 3 sets of CCI's, a plethora of averages and pivot points, not to mention the white background and 'averaged candles') it becomes much more user friendly, much more quickly if you watch him as he reads it and explains his interpretation of it.
good trading to all
Paul
grimweasel
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I'd steer clear of CMCMarkets. On Friday night I was trading the DOW. I went short at 2035ish and the position went £300 into profit. I then tried to close the position and had no response from the dealer for 1m then I got a requote. I only had 2 seconds to action it, so I missed it. I then tried to close the position again, andother wait for what seemed like 2m's or so, then another requote.
By this time the price had shot back up and killed my short and taken me into a loss. Is this an acceptable level of service? I think not. All this crap about fast moving markets is shoddy. If your system can't cope then you should not offer the system in my view.
This is the 2nd time I've had this with CMC so my advice would be steer clear. I'm sticking with IG. Much better and more realiable service!
Grim
By this time the price had shot back up and killed my short and taken me into a loss. Is this an acceptable level of service? I think not. All this crap about fast moving markets is shoddy. If your system can't cope then you should not offer the system in my view.
This is the 2nd time I've had this with CMC so my advice would be steer clear. I'm sticking with IG. Much better and more realiable service!
Grim
danarm
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Morning all
As I type we are seeing some early moves in crude and gold.
Crude is breaking down and has broken the 15 min 20 ma on the 5 min chart. If anyone is short a target price of $78 would be where we expect some support with the hourly moving averages. We above the pivot and the hourly moving averages have crossed. This is a bearish sign and if the price holds around the figure we may see an attack of the four hourly 20 ma. If this breaks we have a big upside potential to the four hourly 50 ma.
Gold has made lower lows on the 5 min chart and looks like it wants to re test the lows at $834, however there is not much price action. If it breaks the hourly 20 ma, we may see a play up to R1 at 869.
EURUSD is overbought on the shorter term, 5 min chart. It looks like it is tired and we may see a slight retracement back to the hourly 20 ma. It is worth looking at the bigger picture here, as we can see with the angle of the four hourly 20 & 50 ma they may cross. The upside medium term target would be 1.3980
Cable is also overbought on the shorter term charts and we may see a pullback if the 5 and 15 min 20 ma can cross. For the medium term, a target price of 1.7716 is available. Remember to buy after red and sell after green.
Have a great day
D
As I type we are seeing some early moves in crude and gold.
Crude is breaking down and has broken the 15 min 20 ma on the 5 min chart. If anyone is short a target price of $78 would be where we expect some support with the hourly moving averages. We above the pivot and the hourly moving averages have crossed. This is a bearish sign and if the price holds around the figure we may see an attack of the four hourly 20 ma. If this breaks we have a big upside potential to the four hourly 50 ma.
Gold has made lower lows on the 5 min chart and looks like it wants to re test the lows at $834, however there is not much price action. If it breaks the hourly 20 ma, we may see a play up to R1 at 869.
EURUSD is overbought on the shorter term, 5 min chart. It looks like it is tired and we may see a slight retracement back to the hourly 20 ma. It is worth looking at the bigger picture here, as we can see with the angle of the four hourly 20 & 50 ma they may cross. The upside medium term target would be 1.3980
Cable is also overbought on the shorter term charts and we may see a pullback if the 5 and 15 min 20 ma can cross. For the medium term, a target price of 1.7716 is available. Remember to buy after red and sell after green.
Have a great day
D
danarm
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Ok EURJPY and USDJPY through me the curve ball. Made 5 pips on USDJPY b4 cutting, with EURJPY falling and EURUSD falling. Went long of USDCHF and got bored of price action so cut for -3. The champ for me today was the cable. Took the short at 95 and banked on way down at 60, 50, 45 and 20. That made me the pips for the morning, so off for breakfast.
D
D
Hi Dan -- Good trading again.On that cable trade and all other forex are you trading spot or futures?
klw
JTrader
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Great idea D
that way people will not keep asking the same questions - or at least u wont feel a need to reply to them - just refer them to the specific video link
danarm
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A friend sent me this...
It's a shame I and the rest of the market were off yesterday because we couldn't really enjoy the mad rally that US stocks encountered particularly in the last hour. Its amazing what a little bear market squeeze does to people's mentality I saw more offer wanted enquiries this morning than I did for the whole of last week. Does the events of the last day mean all is fine, does a 10% rally in stocks say we are ok, the bull market is back, 100% NO. What it does mean is that we have a little more sanity in some of the pricing in my world which quite frankly had got completely out of hand on Friday. Now I am sorry to disappoint all the bulls out there because on Friday I was one of them however you cant lose sight of the fact that what is going on out there is shocking. Whilst the banks recapitalisation is great news because it covers the losses from the shambles of the last 18 months, I am guessing that banks have had to take a pretty hefty hit on their trading and loan books for the past months volatility so does that mean they will require more capital injections soon? Bottom line there is serious blood on the streets and today's price action in CDS perfectly highlighted why long corporates and long CDS as a hedge, is not a hedge unless you have the coconuts to unwind the CDS leg on the panic wide trade. So what's next, well short term we will be watching stock performance and money markets specifically, the measures introduced at the weekend should mean Libor rates come off towards central bank base/repo rates over the coming weeks which is a positive. I then think we will start to focus once again on data and my fear is that its going to be horrendous. You know I love a little anecdotal evidence well I have two snipits for you. Firstly my poor mate who is long a property with his friend (they couldn't afford a place on their own) and is now in a real pickle. In March it was valued at £310k, yesterday it was valued at £200k quite a drop and unfortunately now in negative equity, unpleasant for anyone, but even worse if its with your mate who wants out because he's fallen in love. Number 2 is more worrying, I was chatting to a friend of a friend who unfortunately had to go to the job centre after losing his job. The job centre's system was crashing under the weight of all the new applicants seeking work and when asked if it was full off bankers looking for work, the reply was "no they are from everywhere". The governments and central bankers have prevented a full blown systemic collapse, unfortunately they cannot create jobs, they cannot force us to spend money we haven't got and in my view cannot avoid a full blown global recession. I can hear some people say yes they own the banks now so they can encourage lending, that's all well and good but not at 10, 15 or 20 times your salary so property will continue to come off until it reaches sensible levels vs average wages. Unless we have a black Wednesday tomorrow it's a virtual Friday for me, as many of you know my trips abroad have coincided with many bouts of volatility in the past so get ready to strap yourself back in.
It's a shame I and the rest of the market were off yesterday because we couldn't really enjoy the mad rally that US stocks encountered particularly in the last hour. Its amazing what a little bear market squeeze does to people's mentality I saw more offer wanted enquiries this morning than I did for the whole of last week. Does the events of the last day mean all is fine, does a 10% rally in stocks say we are ok, the bull market is back, 100% NO. What it does mean is that we have a little more sanity in some of the pricing in my world which quite frankly had got completely out of hand on Friday. Now I am sorry to disappoint all the bulls out there because on Friday I was one of them however you cant lose sight of the fact that what is going on out there is shocking. Whilst the banks recapitalisation is great news because it covers the losses from the shambles of the last 18 months, I am guessing that banks have had to take a pretty hefty hit on their trading and loan books for the past months volatility so does that mean they will require more capital injections soon? Bottom line there is serious blood on the streets and today's price action in CDS perfectly highlighted why long corporates and long CDS as a hedge, is not a hedge unless you have the coconuts to unwind the CDS leg on the panic wide trade. So what's next, well short term we will be watching stock performance and money markets specifically, the measures introduced at the weekend should mean Libor rates come off towards central bank base/repo rates over the coming weeks which is a positive. I then think we will start to focus once again on data and my fear is that its going to be horrendous. You know I love a little anecdotal evidence well I have two snipits for you. Firstly my poor mate who is long a property with his friend (they couldn't afford a place on their own) and is now in a real pickle. In March it was valued at £310k, yesterday it was valued at £200k quite a drop and unfortunately now in negative equity, unpleasant for anyone, but even worse if its with your mate who wants out because he's fallen in love. Number 2 is more worrying, I was chatting to a friend of a friend who unfortunately had to go to the job centre after losing his job. The job centre's system was crashing under the weight of all the new applicants seeking work and when asked if it was full off bankers looking for work, the reply was "no they are from everywhere". The governments and central bankers have prevented a full blown systemic collapse, unfortunately they cannot create jobs, they cannot force us to spend money we haven't got and in my view cannot avoid a full blown global recession. I can hear some people say yes they own the banks now so they can encourage lending, that's all well and good but not at 10, 15 or 20 times your salary so property will continue to come off until it reaches sensible levels vs average wages. Unless we have a black Wednesday tomorrow it's a virtual Friday for me, as many of you know my trips abroad have coincided with many bouts of volatility in the past so get ready to strap yourself back in.
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