N Rothschild
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so much for a blood bath..
Is today the day?
- Thread starter arabianights
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N Rothschild
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yeh lol...says it all!
trendie
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I am confused.
by some fluke, I decided not to trade Thurs/Fri, so just toyed with some alerts and stuff, but this thread scared me, what with all the doom and gloom.
FW did say "whats so special", ie, why is this day any different, but there seemed to be some belief something unusual and scary was happening.
maybe I have had too much time to think, but, whats so different with past couple of days?
I didnt notice anything untoward, re: GBPUSD, EURUSD. although EURJPY was wildly down.
am I missing something fundamental about past two days?
by some fluke, I decided not to trade Thurs/Fri, so just toyed with some alerts and stuff, but this thread scared me, what with all the doom and gloom.
FW did say "whats so special", ie, why is this day any different, but there seemed to be some belief something unusual and scary was happening.
maybe I have had too much time to think, but, whats so different with past couple of days?
I didnt notice anything untoward, re: GBPUSD, EURUSD. although EURJPY was wildly down.
am I missing something fundamental about past two days?
Lightning McQueen
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While the vast majority were in this thread kaking in their pants yesterday, a few of us were in the vodafone thread cleaning up :cheesy:
arabianights
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This is just my opinion on what happened, and should not be taken as advice on what may happen in the future:
People like to attribute things to something that happened on a specific day. I think this discounts the ability of traders to have a memory span beyond that of a goldfish. In my opinion, stocks are down not because anything went drastically badly wrong yesterday, but because traders weren't seeing the signs of recovery they were looking for. In my opinion traders have seen the market continue upwards for a long time now, and are still hoping that if they hold on long enough everything will bounce back nicely.
For currencies; the USD has probably been undervalued for a while now, mostly because signs of recession were first spotted in the US, and it took a while for people to realise it's a global event. I think markets have now overcorrected (but may well still continue with their overcorrection for a while), and in the long term we can expect to see exchange rates returning to levels around those seen in 2004/5 (I'm particularly thinking EUR/USD and GBP/USD here).
Personally, I'm basically planning on not trading until Jan/Feb.
trendie
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13 pages! I think its called deflation.
In the golden old days, 13 pages meant 130 posts. (10 per page).
In todays devalued page market, you only get 8 posts per page, now its only 104.
this recessions even affecting T2W threads.
foredog
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I think part of the problem was that in equity markets at least this fear is a self fullfilling prophecy.
People get a bit worried and sell some stock, this triggers some stops which push the maket lower causing more stops to kick in and the black boxes sell some, then people see stocks dropping and fear grips so they sell some and then others pull their bids so the stocks suddenly down 10% on not much really.
Then everyone says "what have we missed, X is down 10%, better get out of them" and then the rumpurs start of collapses, markets closing for a week etc.
look a Bear Stearns, basically a rumour sent them under!
People get a bit worried and sell some stock, this triggers some stops which push the maket lower causing more stops to kick in and the black boxes sell some, then people see stocks dropping and fear grips so they sell some and then others pull their bids so the stocks suddenly down 10% on not much really.
Then everyone says "what have we missed, X is down 10%, better get out of them" and then the rumpurs start of collapses, markets closing for a week etc.
look a Bear Stearns, basically a rumour sent them under!
davedavethetrader
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so all eyes on asia then.
ive had a nice relaxing week off, sitting by a pool in the sun.
(in between running inside to check cnbc!!!!!!!!!! hahahahaha)
what ever happens, i make buffet right, buy and hold, now. go long, go away....
only, thats ok for him.
for those of us who still need to make a living, what next? lets be honest we would all love to buy now, and keep buying all the way lower. but unfortunately, the pockets dont quite stretch that far.
ive been thinking, its now not about whats happening today, yesterday, last week etc. its about what the impact on the future is. theres been alot of money thrown at this problem, im pretty sure the central governments have helped the stocks fall in a fairly orderly way, its certain that we are either at over extension points or about to see the last of it. you can see where the money was invested by the funds that have lost money, those that are now winding up. if they didnt see this all coming, they deserve what they've ended up with. actually, they probably deserve less.
so where is this going to lead?
stocks may rally once the fear of a crash fades.
which in turn will send long dated bonds lower.
so, im going to be watching 2 years v 10 years. probably for months....
buying dips, buying breaks....NEVER EVER EVER fading rallies....
who knows, but with the possiblity of rates falling and staying low for the next 12-18 months and the longer term problems caused by actions of our peers. thats where im at.
really appreciate it if you could all point out why im completely wrong!
that would be handy....
also, oil. anyone else thinking that its getting over done?
im going to start hunting around for options that are very close to expiry and cheap, ie miles away! i think the risk reward makes sense.
anyhow,
enjoy. this is one for the grandchildren.....
ive had a nice relaxing week off, sitting by a pool in the sun.
(in between running inside to check cnbc!!!!!!!!!! hahahahaha)
what ever happens, i make buffet right, buy and hold, now. go long, go away....
only, thats ok for him.
for those of us who still need to make a living, what next? lets be honest we would all love to buy now, and keep buying all the way lower. but unfortunately, the pockets dont quite stretch that far.
ive been thinking, its now not about whats happening today, yesterday, last week etc. its about what the impact on the future is. theres been alot of money thrown at this problem, im pretty sure the central governments have helped the stocks fall in a fairly orderly way, its certain that we are either at over extension points or about to see the last of it. you can see where the money was invested by the funds that have lost money, those that are now winding up. if they didnt see this all coming, they deserve what they've ended up with. actually, they probably deserve less.
so where is this going to lead?
stocks may rally once the fear of a crash fades.
which in turn will send long dated bonds lower.
so, im going to be watching 2 years v 10 years. probably for months....
buying dips, buying breaks....NEVER EVER EVER fading rallies....
who knows, but with the possiblity of rates falling and staying low for the next 12-18 months and the longer term problems caused by actions of our peers. thats where im at.
really appreciate it if you could all point out why im completely wrong!
that would be handy....
also, oil. anyone else thinking that its getting over done?
im going to start hunting around for options that are very close to expiry and cheap, ie miles away! i think the risk reward makes sense.
anyhow,
enjoy. this is one for the grandchildren.....
