Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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well that took me out but at least no loss

After you have done say 50 or 100 of these type of trades - you will be reading PA a lot better and you will sense changes etc etc - and you will end up at least 80% of the time making positive pips

It will come
 
EU - 1120 price but outside TW - a scalp buy

EU

1 min LR chart with levels and time change


190584d1432049090-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-190515-pm.png
 

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We need to see if the low at 4 13pm can go 30 mins with no new breach now

If so it favours higher then next 20 -30 mins - but would need new HH's as well
 
EU

its been a 200 pip drop today - so far - well above normal ATR

Under 1190 and 80 its still in bearish PS - but now depends on supports of 1120 and 30

Time for a cup of tea - see you after 5 00 pm - I normally stop around now - but lets see what's next

Back in a bit
 
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EU - after 3 00 pm and after 4 13 pm this afternoon

2 charts both 1 min LR charts

One as scalp buy

one 46 mins later


190584d1432049090-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-190515-pm.png




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Hi Fugazsy

Some excellent questions raised and i will during the day get around to answering them in full

Have a great session and speak to you later

All the best

Regards


F

Got to get around to answering Fugazsys questions a bit later plus extra on TW's and Time rules

Hope to do it before 9 pm UK time and will post in your thread as well

Regards

F

Finshed now guys

Will pop back in later and see you in the morning

Enjoy your evening


(y)
 
After you have done say 50 or 100 of these type of trades - you will be reading PA a lot better and you will sense changes etc etc - and you will end up at least 80% of the time making positive pips

It will come
I have been trading off price action for the last 5 years and did see the confluence zone there before I entered the trade. I didn't react or plan around it because that wasn't my plan. I am in the process of working the method for 8 months after which I might have something that has legs and could work long term. I have done just over 4 months and it has exceeded every expectation which is surprising as it started as an experiment at short term trading.

In 4 just under for months time I should have enough data for tuning areas that are clearly lacking. I am fully accepting that this could all go belly up at any point and I need to see if the method, and myself, can handle a bad spell. Surprisingly it hasn't happened yet but I am still open minded as to it being around the corner at any time.

So the plan is to keep it steady and unchanged so as to not skew the experiment results. I am genuinely hoping things work out as it would be a very good thing to have this in addition to my daily trading method.

So far I have not had a losing week, touching work as I write this, and the worst day was 4 losses that hit me for around 35 pips. Every day I wakeup and expect it to be a repeat followed by a cycle downwards into ultimate termination of the experiment. I have to say that even if that happens I have enjoyed this process and would certainly run another experiment if another method was found should this one fail. My expectations are failure but I am definitely open minded of success and the benefit it would bring. To be honest I am not sure I would find another method as remarkable as this. You know very well how difficult it is to find something that is outside the herd and gives and edge.

So if this is successful after the 8 month run then we shall be talking about how I plan to introduce changes that should have made today 17 pips more profitable. Until then, and until tomorrow.
 
I have been trading off price action for the last 5 years and did see the confluence zone there before I entered the trade. I didn't react or plan around it because that wasn't my plan. I am in the process of working the method for 8 months after which I might have something that has legs and could work long term. I have done just over 4 months and it has exceeded every expectation which is surprising as it started as an experiment at short term trading.

In 4 just under for months time I should have enough data for tuning areas that are clearly lacking. I am fully accepting that this could all go belly up at any point and I need to see if the method, and myself, can handle a bad spell. Surprisingly it hasn't happened yet but I am still open minded as to it being around the corner at any time.

So the plan is to keep it steady and unchanged so as to not skew the experiment results. I am genuinely hoping things work out as it would be a very good thing to have this in addition to my daily trading method.

So far I have not had a losing week, touching work as I write this, and the worst day was 4 losses that hit me for around 35 pips. Every day I wakeup and expect it to be a repeat followed by a cycle downwards into ultimate termination of the experiment. I have to say that even if that happens I have enjoyed this process and would certainly run another experiment if another method was found should this one fail. My expectations are failure but I am definitely open minded of success and the benefit it would bring. To be honest I am not sure I would find another method as remarkable as this. You know very well how difficult it is to find something that is outside the herd and gives and edge.

So if this is successful after the 8 month run then we shall be talking about how I plan to introduce changes that should have made today 17 pips more profitable. Until then, and until tomorrow.


Hi Cubed

I agree with you - and so true you can find an "edge" or even 2 so that you stand a better chance in this game - which after all is just not easy.

I have found over the last few years- I now look upon the movements on say a 10 second FX tick chart and also the 1 minute as being 90% of the time as being slow and fairly readable. Going back over 7 yrs ago - for me I used to think anything under 5 minutes was too quick and I just kept away from noise - as everyone said it was impossible to trade it.

The reason 80 % or more of all trader fail is simple down to the fact that they are not with it long enough - just 1 or 2 yrs part time is not enough - it takes longer to crack.

As you progress it amazing how little things you can fine tune - can make a difference - just an extra 2 or 3 pips a trade on 4 -10 trades a day can be the cream on the cake.

Advanced money management techniques and a consistent plan helps

GL with your continued testing - I am sure you will get there and please feel free to post as and when you want

Regards


F
 
HI F,

I have a question for you if you do not mind,

a) are your major KT 00 and 30?

b) as you already said, it can be a bit before or after the 00 and the 30, when do you enter? do you wait for the 1m to be completed or what?

c) lest say I am entering short at KT 00, when are you thinking to get out, would you let it run considering PA till the next TW?

d)When do you take the 70% off and with the 30% remaining what will be your move, do you trail your stop loss.

e) And for what I understand the remaining KT are 9 past and 9 to the hour, 9 past and 9 to the half hour which form the two TW. Is that right? And how less important are compared to the major KT?

f) Can you tell me more about KT and KW, why are there important and what is behind it.

I am asking those question because I can see something happening in those 2 major KT combining with my understanding of price action.

Those are the questions a need to clarify for the time being.

Thanks


Also you want more info on the Time rules

Hi Fugazsy

Relaxing with a glass of Chianti and now ready to answer your question (s)

a - On the 00 hour change is yes - but 30 min exactly no better than 9 mins past or 39 mins past

b - KT's are clues but - entries are not based entirely on time - I also need price levels and PA and LA to give me clues as well as last 5 min moves that look false - ie quick 6 -10 pip rises or drop - stopping exactly at a KT. So it might be 1 00 and 22 seconds or 1 01 and 7 seconds - or even 12 59 18 second - all depending on my reading of a tick or 1 min chart

A classic yesterday was a rise at 12 51 pm ( KT ) that carried on and at exactly 1 00 pm was still rising and went up another 3 pips. BUT at 1 01 pm - it stopped and fell I think about 17 pips . So time alone is a pointer and an important clue - but needs to agree with PA and my quick LR's

c - Normally - winning scalps making over 7 pips carry on more than 9 mins - and even can go from say 1 09 pm to 1 20 pm - ie 11 mins

BUT - again - time is a clue but PA and my LRs give me my edge on a 1 min. I dont mind exiting 70% early if it over 10 pips and i should have got say 13 pips - as you my entries are really more important than my exits - as the number of intraday trades I take allows me to make my 50 + pips - whether I need just 9 trades - or whethet I struggle and need 19 trades

d - - 2 ways - all depending on how many pips I already have in the kitty that morning or day. If I am up well - I will just leave a 30% on with stop in just 2 -4 pips of profit and give it anything from 12 to 25 pips of profit to come back

If I am not up to my target and pips are difficult - I trail at either 7 or 10 pips maximum - not wanting to give pips back - but want a stop to always be then in a profit

Remember if I am in a 30% stake sell and i am up say 60 + pips and a nice scalp buy comes along - I buy at 100% stake and then trade against my 30% stake - as long as the scalp wins I gain 70% on the pullbacks

It all depends on so many factors - such as how good the session is going - whether I am in the zone and on a roll - or just had 3 quick losses of 2-4 pips each and feeling frustrated - i adjust according to the circumstances - ie I am dynamic and fluid - just like the market

e - I think I answered this one - maybe 85% + of all my trades start in one of the 2 TW's - maybe only 60% are exactly on one of the 6 KT's ie exactly 1 21 pm

f - Yes time as become more important due to the amount of automated systems etc that have some kind of time connection

Even a 4 hr or 8 hr trader waits for the hour change to decide on whether to enter - ie not always 15 mins or 20 mins before.

Time is not mentioned by many books and tutors - as nobody as really looked into it.

I have in big way over say 5 years - and so know the KT's and also the most important hours and time periods of a day - that change according to news events etc etc.

Also time rules - always check out if an interim new high or low last over 30 mins with no breach - that favours a reversal for next 20 -30 mins

You dont have to wait exactly 30 mins - if its gone say 15 mins and the retrace is more than 60% of the hour ATR more than likely in the next 15 mins left it will not go back to the low or high so quick - but might give false teasing instead

It happened today and you commented - its gone over 30 mins and the move continued to retrace from a interim low

BUT - its only one of my edges.

I then have LR's far more important than MA's and what over 10yrs plus of Price action reading on charts under 30 mins and also my own interim level readings on a 1 min along with tight soft stops - that are never allowed just to be hit - if not already in profit.

Then throw in a daily routine - tried and tested - 10 to 20 trades a day over say 8 -10 hrs - If I cannot make money everyday Fx trading then I am sure 99% of all retailer would never make it.

Hope that helps

Also MM when he first tried my way - he had many days when he would get 70% of his scalps wrong - and he would be frustrated

He never gave up and in the end - as you can see - it paid off

New skills might take weeks or months etc to learn fully - not just 4 or 6 hrs to learn - but I know you know that


Regards


F
 
Morning all on the 'not good thread'!


Lol

Good Morning Nick

I started early this morning - the dog did not have a good night and got me up at 5 20 am this morning instead of normal 6 00 am ish

I started scalping at 5 39 am and have recorded 3 of my scalps on the EU and GU and will post them in a bit

Yes - I had to laugh at some of the comments from yesterday by many of my "hissers" - ie dissers and haters combined ;-)

I think I will change my nic to - Marmite FX - ie you either love me - or hate me - lol - I just dont fit in the middle ;-)

I am going to post a new thread today - just to wind up the industry more -

I am sure you will enjoy it

Have a good day Nick - all the best and thanks for your support etc etc


Regards


F
 
Wednesday 20th May 2015 - Pre Opens

GM to all members of this great Forum - followers - non followers - dissers - haters - commercial spoilers - profitable retail traders - non profitable traders - nice people - and then Bankers and the commercial guys - ( I hope I have covered everyone )

Basil the dog had a bad night and i was up this morning at 5 20 am ish - very early

I started scalping at 5 39 am and have now 3 nice scalps already in the kitty

More on that to follow with charts etc etc

First of all - quick updates and summaries on the main pairs etc

During the morning and day - as normal

All our welcome to comment on FX related subjects etc etc

Have a good day


Regards

F
 
EU

6 53 AM

3 charts to follow in this next 15 mins or so on this pair from 5 30 and 5 39 am this morning

Basically we had lows at 1120 area and highs near 1165 in the night -- so lets say a 50 pip range for now

Above 1165 and 70+ we go into a bullish session PS and I would be scalp buying more

Under 1127 and 1118 - we are still in yesterdays bearish PS and I would be scalp selling more

I have now had 3 scalps on EU so far this morning - at KT's and 2 have been buys and one sell - but all within this range

6 51 am as started the next scalp sell from 1143

Can we test under 1127 and 1118 next ???
 
GU

7 00 am

One sell on it this morning at 5 38/9 am at 5519 - chart to follow

Another early range we need to break out of - like EU

News at 9 30 am as well

Above 5525 and 30 - bullish PS for session

Under 5488 and 75 - bearish PS for am session

Price at 5496 atm - but falling - still in sell on a 30% stake for now with stop at 5516 in profit
 
EJ

7 03 am

kicking myself - not traded it so far - missed 6 51 am sell which as now dropped 40 pips approx

OK - EU and GU have been good to me - but EJ is normally my favourite - but it had been too flat prior to 6 30 am and so ignored it and focused on EU and GU

Bearish PS under 134 70 with supports up from 134 00 at 134 15 to 25 area

Will be trading it during the day
 
EU

6 53 AM

3 charts to follow in this next 15 mins or so on this pair from 5 30 and 5 39 am this morning

Basically we had lows at 1120 area and highs near 1165 in the night -- so lets say a 50 pip range for now

Above 1165 and 70+ we go into a bullish session PS and I would be scalp buying more

Under 1127 and 1118 - we are still in yesterdays bearish PS and I would be scalp selling more

I have now had 3 scalps on EU so far this morning - at KT's and 2 have been buys and one sell - but all within this range

6 51 am as started the next scalp sell from 1143


Can we test under 1127 and 1118 next ???


EU

7 06 am

Now testing 1100 - great PA this morning

Exited sells for now

Need to print some of my charts now - first copied from pre 6 00 am
 
Charts - starting with EU scalp charts from first scalp this morning

EU

All 1 min LR charts on EU from 5 30 am this morning with KT's marked

First scalp sell of morning below - nice set up at 5 39 am

190616d1432102245-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-5-30am-200515.png



Next one at 6 00 am - scalp buy

190612d1432102245-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-200515-6-50-am.png



Final one - scalp sell under R area at 6 51 am - nice 45 pip fall on that one - but out now


190612d1432102245-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-200515-6-50-am.png


190618d1432102702-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-eu-200515-7-15-am.png
 

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GU

7 00 am

One sell on it this morning at 5 38/9 am at 5519 - chart to follow

Another early range we need to break out of - like EU

News at 9 30 am as well

Above 5525 and 30 - bullish PS for session

Under 5488 and 75 - bearish PS for am session

Price at 5496 atm - but falling - still in sell on a 30% stake for now with stop at 5516 in profit


Chart from earlier on sell


190620d1432102913-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-gu-200515-5-30am.png



Out after 7 21 am with price low at 5475
 

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GU - 2 Charts showing sell after 5 39 am

Follow up chart just on GU after low so far at 5475


190620d1432102913-intraday-live-short-term-trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-gu-200515-5-30am.png


That chart was pre Opens

This chart at 7 25 am

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