Intraday Analysis by Forexsoup

[karlis09]

UK Retail Sales & CA Core CPI m/m

11:30 UK Retail Sales 0.6%(E) -0.8%(P) 0.6%(S) 50M
14:00 CA Core CPI m/m 0.2%(E) -0.3%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Fri February 18, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]

Today's Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this
is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this
release:

11:30 (EU Time) Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%


[14:00 EU Time]

CPI is also known as Inflation and our focus will be on the Core
Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or
CPI ex Volatile Items...

Here's the forecast:

CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% / SELL 0.4%

By Forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 22/02 CA Core Retail Sales m/m

15:30 CA Core Retail Sales 0.7%(E) 1.0%(P) 0.6%(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Tue February 22, 2011

[15:30 EU Time]

Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw
direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here's Forecast:

Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 1.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 1.3%

by Forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

UK MPC Minutes & US Existing Home Sales

11:30 UK MPC Minutes 2-0-7(E) 2-0-7(P) 2(S) 50M
17:00 US Existing Home 5.27M(E) 5.28M(P) 400K(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Wed February 23, 2011

[11:30 EU Time]

MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it
is customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement
along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no
changes in either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility,
UK's quantitative easing program), today will be the first time for
a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the
forecast:
11:30 EU Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 2-0-7 Previous 2-0-7
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY (4 Vote For Hike) / SELL (2 Vote For QE)

[17:00am EU Time]

US Existing Home Sales is expected to remain unchanged from the
previous month as current market situation is showing signs of
bottoming out on the housing sector. Here's forecast:

Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.27M Previous 5.28M
ACTION: EURUSD SELL 5.7M / BUY 4.80M

by Forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 24/02 US New Home Sales m/m

17:00 US Existing Home 330K(E) 329K(P) 70K(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Thu February 24, 2011

[17:00 EU Time]

U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing
Home Sales, therefore we are likely to see a slightly
stronger release today. Here is the forecast:

17:00 EU Time New Home Sales Forecast 330K Previous 329K
ACTION: SELL 400K EURUSD BUY 260K EURUSD

by Forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 25/02 UK Revised GDP & US Prelim GDP q/q

11:30 UK Revised GDP -0.5%(E) -0.5%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
15:30 US Preim GDP 3.3%(E) 3.2%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Fri February 25, 2011

[11:30 EU Time]

Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP
release, is going to be the focus today. Here is the
forecast:

11:30 (EU Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.5% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.0% SELL -0.8%

[15:30 EU Time]

Here's the forecast for U.S. Prelim. GDP:

15:30 (EU Time) US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 3.3% Previous 3.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.6% SELL 3.0%

by Forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 28/02 CA GDP m/m

15:30 CA GDP m/m 0.3%(E) 0.4%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M[/b\

[15:30 EU Time]

We'll be receiving the monthly GDP release from Canada
today. Here's the forecast:

15:30 EU Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6%

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 01/03 UK & US Manufacturing PMI, CA BOC Interest Rate

11:30 UK Manuf. PMI 61.5(E) 62.0(P) 2.0(S) 50M
16:00 CA Interest Rate 1.0%(E) 1.0%(P) 0.25(S) 50M
17:00 US ISM Manuf. PMI 61.0(E) 60.8(P) 2.5(S) 50M


[11:30 EU Time GMT+2]

Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it's usually
released during early month. Traders pay attention to this
release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the
general trend of the currency for the rest of the month.
Here is the forecast:

11:30 (EU Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 61.5 Previous 62.0
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 63.5 SELL 59.0


[16:00 EU Time]

Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their
Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be
announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate
decision, BOC Carney will also announce a Rate Statement to
further explain today's decision. Here's what analysts are
expecting:

16:00 (EU Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 1.25%


[17:00 EU Time]

ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator,
traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of
economic trend. Here's the forecast:

17:00 EU Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 61.0 Previous 60.8
ACTION: 63.5 BUY USDJPY / 58.5 BUY EURUSD


by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 02/03 ADP NFP Employment

15:15 US ADP NFP 180K(E) 187K(P) 50K(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Wed March 2, 2011

[15:15 EU Time]

ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing
it's own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm
Payroll). This is high impact release and it's followed by
currency traders as they look for hints on Friday's NFP
official release. Here's the forecast:

15:15 EU Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 180K Previous 187K
ACTION: 230K BUY USDJPY / 130K BUY EURUSD

by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 03/03 UK Services PMI & EU ECB Rate Decision

11:30 UK Services PMI 54.0(E) 54.5(P) 2.5(S) 50M
14:45 EU ECB Rate 1.0%(E) 1.0%(P) .25%(S) 90M

NEWS TRADING

Thu March 3, 2011

[11:30 GMT+2]

We'll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index
today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator
similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early
this week, here's the forecast:

11:30 UK Services PMI Forecast 54.0 Previous 54.5
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.5 SELL 51.5

[14:45 GMT+2]

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate
decision today, it is widely believed that ECB will keep
current rate unchanged. Here's the forecast:

14:44 EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY 1.25% SELL 0.75%

by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 09/03 RBNZ Rate Decision

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will cut rates by 25 basis points today to 2.75%; here is the forecast:

22:00 (GMT+2) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.75% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: AUDNZD SELL 3.00%

The Trade Plan
With current forecast from 10 out of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg agreeing that RBNZ is likely to cut rates during this meeting and with current market pricing in 100% of the effects of the cut, here are the likely scenarios:

1. RBNZ cuts rate to 2.75%: We should see relative calm market or very little reaction to the rate decision. However, if Gov. Bollard’s statements were to lean on the bearish side, market could take that as a sign to sell-off NZD.
2. RBNZ keeps rate at 3.00%: We should see an immediate appreciation of NZD against all majors. I’d be focusing on the AUDNZD pair as it is hovering around 17-year highs.

by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 10/03 UK BOE Interest Rate

BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE’s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here’s the forecast:

14:00 (GMT+2) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) Forecast 200B Previous 200B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) SELL 225B (APF)

The Trade Plan
In the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we’ll buy GBP/USD immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we’ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains…

On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase in the APF or better known as quantitative easing, it would send a bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP/USD immediately.

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep both their official bank rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) of 200 Billion Pound unchanged, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.


by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 11/03 CA Employment & US Core Retail Sales

14:00 CA Employment Change 26K(E) 69.2(P) 30K(S) 50M
15:30 US Core Retail 0.7%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.5%(S) 50M

NEWS TRADING

Fri March 11, 2011

[14:00 GMT+2]

We'll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release
number today, here is the forecast:

14:00 CA Employment Change Forecast 26K Previous 69.2K
Unemployment Rate 7.7%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -5K SELL 55K

[15:30 GMT+2]

We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:

15:30 US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.2% BUY GBPUSD

The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.2% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

You are here: Home / Forex News Trade / Forex News Trading US Core Retail Sales 03/11/11
Forex News Trading US Core Retail Sales 03/11/11
March 10, 2011 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.2% BUY GBPUSD

The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.2% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.

For more information on my trading method:
http://www.newsprofiteer.com/mentoring/mastermind-mentoring-system-webinar-1-of-3/

The Market
Core Retail Sales, or Retail Sales ex Auto is expected to be around 0.7%, and according to a survey of 63 analysts obtained by Bloomberg forecasts a headline Retail Sales of 1.0%.

J.C Penny and Macy’s Inc. were among retailers that beat most analysts’ estimates in the month of February, and if this is of any indication, we should expect a release figure near the forecast or better. Also the improvement in employment and in recent weather conditions should give a boost to the sales number.

Additional Thoughts
Since both releases (Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation…

Pre-news Consideration
There should be no pre-news trading.

DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”

by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 15/03 FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision

Federal Reserve will probably not surprise the market today. It is likely to keep the current Federal Funds rate unchanged while leaving the 600 Billion Dollar stimulus in place as economy is showing improvement.

The real market mover will probably be the accompanied statement, where Bernanke is expected to mention the recent improvements in Unemployment Rate (which is at 8.9%, the lowest in 2 years), Consumer Spending, and Consumer Confidence.

Bernanke is also expected to talk about recent surge in commodity prices, due mostly to the geopolitical concerns in Libya and possible interruption in oil supplies. Inflation is a also a very important concern to the Feds and by keeping interest rates near zero percent, it is definitely not a good combination while unemployment rate remains persistently high.

We should expect a reiteration of recent rhetoric from Bernanke’s speech in March 2. We should also expect little change with the phrase “…low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period”, and in all likelihood, it will probably remain in this FOMC statement… we will probably not get any persistent market reaction…

However, if Bernanke were to surprise the market and discuss possible exit strategies or phasing out QE2, market will rush to buy USD, as it is a sentiment shared by many Fed officials (Dudley, Fisher, and Evans); on the other hand, if Bernanke were to concentrate on the negative and the sluggishness in market recovery, we’ll probably see USD under a bit of selling pressure.

The most likely scenario will be a limited market reaction today, and of course, unless you’ve traded this release before, I’d recommend staying out. This is a very advanced news event that is high impact enough to change market trend, and therefore important to every Forex trader…

So if you have never traded this release, just be present and watch market reaction while listening to your news wire service or Bloomberg TV and try to learn as much as you can.

by forexsoup

 

[karlis09]

Analysis for 17/03 US Core CPI m/m

We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, it is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast for the CPI:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD

The Trade Plan
Our minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll BUY EURUSD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.

The Market
CPI is expected to remain steady but at a moderate rate. Market is currently slightly under pressure with inflation in both food and energy prices. If Core CPI were to jump to the upside then the market would probably react with demand for USD for the very short-term or about 2 hours.

If we do get a surprise in the inflation front, with recent encouraging growth in the housing market, improvement in the unemployment rate, and record high PMIs, market could speculate that the Federal Reserve may be addressing inflation issue sooner than later and leads to hike rates ahead of 4th quarter 2011.

Additional Thoughts
The best time to trade this release would probably be during the NY Equity market open at 9:30am as this release is not a strong market mover… unless we get a strong Retail Sales, it’s probably best to stay out then.

DEFINITION:
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

by forexsoup