InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

Financials Under Pressure, Sights On Financial Reform.

Financial stocks are weaker today as many investors fear the bulls eye is directly on stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and others. Why you may ask? President Obama has just passed his most important agenda. The healthcare reform bill will define him in a historical sense and he knows it. This bill was his number one priority for his presidency and his main campaign promise. It is a done deal. Signed, sealed and delivered to his desk to sign in the next few days.

So how does this cause problems for financial firms? Namely the attention of the nation, congress and the president will now fully be on Wall Street. The bulls eye is now on the top financial firms and banks and the president, high off success on healthcare is coming to town! Bernanke recently said, and I will paraphrase, we as a country can never come so close to collapse again, because of a few of the largest banks. This will now be a priority for President Obama.

Bank stocks are under pressure today as Wall Street now realizes what is most likely on the horizon. As of now, the markets are flat to slightly higher regardless of the banks being weak. Keep a close eye on stocks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the others. Tough talk could cause them to continue to fall lower.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

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Re: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) Signals Possible Top With Candle Formation.

looks to me like it could retest the $13 level in the short term.. you would need to have a stop loss above 14.54.. BUT if this stock opens tomorrow above 14.54 there will be a strong rally!.. This pattern is called a shooting star.. normally it is bearish but if the bearish signal is negated it will cause a Big rally on short covering. thats T.A for you!!
 
Re: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) Signals Possible Top With Candle Formation.

I'm long since 11.80 ;-)
 
Market Drop In Late Morning Trading, Striking The 200MA. Have Your Trades Locked In.

The markets started slightly to the downside, only to slowly float higher as usual. Then at 11:00am ET, the markets started to drop. The SPY slumped quickly to the 200ma on the intra day 10 minute chart. There should be solid support there. If that breaks, look for $116.40 as the next level.


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The Low Down On The Up Market Today.

The markets are trading higher today, retracing approximately 50% of the drop yesterday, from the highs of the day to the lows of the day. It was a monstrous reversal in the last two hours of trading. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) hit my master level at $118.15, crossing it by $.02. Then, as if the end of the world had come, the markets dropped like a rock. Again, today we are seeing a 50% retrace of that move, at this point in the day.

The markets got a little economic news today. The final numbers on GDP were released at 8:30am ET. GDP was revised down to 5.6% growth. While this did show lower growth than originally thought, it was well within a range that the markets could handle. Futures did not move much on this. With the GDP numbers a neutral indicator on the markets, at 9:30am ET, the U.S markets opened slightly higher on the back of a weaker dollar. Overnight, European countries continued to hammer out deals for Greece. This continues to make the overall Greek issue look like less of a big deal and thus cause a bounce in the Euro. In response, the dollar drops and the markets get a bid.

With the markets trading slightly higher, Michigan Sentiment was released at 9:55am ET. This also came out approximately in line with expectations. The dollar began to drop. As that happened the markets caught a great bid. They shot higher and as I mentioned earlier, are now hovering around the 50% retrace level, up about a half percent on the day.

Key stocks to watch today include Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Apple Inc. crossed the $230 level a few days ago. For two days it stayed weak, not leading the market. Today it caught a sizable bid and is taking technology higher. It has crossed the $230 level. I have a major area of resistance and possible short term top between $230 - $235. This area should be watched very closely. Apple Inc. will be releasing their IPAD in April. This could be a classic sell the news type event from the recent run up.

Chevron and Exxon have been under pressure of late as well. While much of the market has ripped higher, these two stocks have stalled. Not the case today. These two stocks are loving the weakness in the dollar and powering forward. They are definitely leaders today and keeping this market up. If the dollar moves lower, these two stocks can continue to get a bid and help the market stay up.

Lastly, keep in mind you may be getting a little window dressing today. With the quarter coming to an end, look for money managers to put outperforming stocks in their portfolios. When the individual, average investor gets their quarterly statement, it makes it look like the money manager held that stock all quarter. This can help some of the recent leaders like Apple Inc. be higher today.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
How Markets May Extend The Rally Next Week

With the meteoric rise in the markets of late, many are wondering if it can continue. Problems are looming but in the last two months, the markets have ignored them all, having only a handful of minor down days. Can it continue? Here is a possible reason to say yes!

Volume next week should be muted due to three factors. The first is Passover, a Jewish holiday which begins Monday night. Holidays can always cause light trading. In addition to Passover, the second issue that could keep volume light is Good Friday This makes it a four day week and means more traders are likely to take it slow or off completely. The last reason the markets could continue their run is based off the Jobs Report due out Friday. It is possible to see continued upside as Wall Street anticipates a extremely positive report with jobs gains. Add that to the light volume, based off multiple holidays and it could be a recipe for higher markets.

Dow 11,000 is not far away. It is also possible the powers that be, Treasury, Administration, Federal Reserve will want to make headlines in the news, going into a holiday weekend by slamming the DOW through 11,000. A close above 11,000 could very well be in the cards purely based on the manipulation factor.

The light volume is a true catalyst for upside. It enables the markets to float higher and get small buy programs that create big pops. I have discussed in depth how light volume has been one of the major driving forces behind the recent jump in stock prices. If you look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), anytime it trades less than 200 million, the markets are flat or higher. Anytime it trades higher than 200 million, the SPY is lower. The volume factors can also be noted on the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQQ). Keep an eye on key stocks like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Also, watch Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) as they are set to report earnings Wednesday, March 31st, after the markets close.

Listed above are the reasons that the market could continue the rally next week. There are just as many reasons for the markets to fall. The key overall will be volume. Decent volume, the markets most likely fall. Light holiday volume, the markets should hold up.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
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Markets Higher On Weak Dollar, Optimism, Friday Jobs Report And Volume

There are many factors contributing to the small upswing in the markets today. The markets are hoving up about half a percent. The interesting thing about the float higher today is that it could last for the entire week. All the factors today, are factors that could show up for the rest of the week in the markets. The biggest ones revolve around light volume, based on the Passover Holiday and Good Friday. This will keep some traders on the sidelines and volume low. Another factor that could last all week is the pump up into Jobs Report expected out on Friday. It is likely the markets will slowly inch higher into that report, especially with the help of holiday, light volume. Dow 11,000 is not far away and the "powers" that be could push it there by Friday. It is about 100 points away.

The weak dollar is adding fuel to the fire. Europe seems to have recovered from the Greece scare. In addition, no new major countries seem to be talking about default. The dollar has moved lower, markets slightly higher.

Leaders continue to be those that have charged higher all quarter. With just three days left in the first quarter of 2010, these companies continue to inch higher. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is higher by 1% on the day. Reports over the weekend that the IPAD has sold out in the short term continue to ripple through Apple world. Instead of getting the IPAD by early April, it will now be closer to mid April for most that order today or after.

One financial stock that is taking a break is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). The stock has been ripping lately but today, while most other things are higher, JPM is pulling back. Others leading stocks are Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). XOM ripped higher from the open ran until late morning. It has now paused but is consolidating in a bullish manner.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Market Hardcore Analysis...Learn The Keys!

The markets started the day with a small gap higher and quickly added to the gains on light volume. It seemed as if the DOW would make a run at the 11,000 level. Consumer Confidence was reported at 10:00am ET, showing a small positive increase. The index that measures the general publics opinion on the economy and how healthy they feel, rose to 52.5 in March from 46.4 in February. This was slightly ahead of expectations.

While this may have seemed like good news, the markets paid little attention. We are seeing good news not be a key driver of market gains. Rather, the gains of late are coming on rotation of money into stocks as money managers have chased the market into the quarter end, as well as extreme light volume issues. Today, the Consumer Confidence number gave the markets an initial thrust higher but quickly started to drop. The drop was sharp, but not because of the Consumer Confidence. Instead, it was because the dollar started to inch higher and yields moved towards 4.00%. These two factors triggered some solid selling volume and took the markets to the negative side.

The markets slammed into the lows from yesterday and have since bounced, as volume has stalled and the dollars rise has also stalled. Interest rates do seem to be on the forefront of the markets worry. Many still believe the DOW will be pushed to the 11,000 level by the end of the holiday shortened week. Volume will continue to get lighter and it will not be hard to hold the markets up or push them higher. The markets will await the Jobs Report on Friday, even though the markets are closed.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) surged yesterday after hours on a report that they may have a new Iphone coming out with Verizon. The stock traded over $238 yesterday after hours but today is having trouble holding those gains. It is trading near the $236 level up 1.60%. The interesting thing about Apple Inc. from a technical standpoint is the inability in the last two trading days to hold gains. Yesterday, Apple gapped higher and closed near the lows of the day and again today, we are seeing the same price action. This is worth watching in the coming days and weeks.

Financial stocks are getting hit today as renewed fears of financial regulation are hitting the markets. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) fell off a cliff after being slightly positive just after the open. It dropped over $3 to a low of $170.70. Since that move, it has bounced along with the markets. Volume is getting extremely light. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is also lower on the day.

After a big move higher yesterday, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is dropping slightly as the strength in the dollar is putting pressure on oil. A drop in oil is usually a negative for Exxon Mobil Corp.

The markets continue to trade just slightly negative on the day. Volume is getting lighter and lighter. The dollar is slightly higher but now off its highs.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks
 
Futures Sell Sharply After ADP Employment Number...Will It Hold?

The futures were flat going into the ADP Employment number. The ADP Employment number gives the market a view of private sector hiring or firing. With lofty expectations, the jobs number missed by quite a bit. Economists had expected a rise of 40,000. The number, released at 8:15am ET, came in at -23,000. This is a miss of 63,000. The futures have sold sharply.

While the markets are lower, they may not sell dramatically today due to the light volume holiday week. The lighter the volume, the more likely the markets stay around the flat line. Today is the last day of the first quarter and with the markets closed on Friday, volume starting at lunch, should remain very light.


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When Will Bad News Become A Negative?

The bull rally from the March 2009 lows is now euphoric. It seems that the kitchen sink can be thrown at the market and it will still rise. A little over a year ago if someone sneezed the market would decline, and drop sharply. Today, it goes up on a daily basis as the market has been down only a handful of trading days since February 5th, 2010. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) has risen nearly 12 percent in just five short weeks along with the rest of the major indexes.

While the Obama economic team and the Federal Reserve Bank are out declaring victory there are many negatives that are occurring at this time. The first negative that everyone should watch for is the high energy prices that the U.S. consumer will have to pay. The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:USO) is trading at it a new 52 week high climbing above its long sideways base that it has been in since June 2009. When crude climbs usually gasoline follows. The United States Gasoline Fund ETF (NYSE:UGA) is trading at a new high 52 week high as well today. This means there will be higher gasoline prices at the pump for all those that are looking to drive and need to commute. This is a major negative for the markets.

The next important negative news for the stock market will be the 10 Year T-Note yields trading at or above 4.00 percent. When yields have hit or reached this level it has been a negative for the stock market. This has been when the market actually had a correction. Granted there have only been two corrections in the stock market since the rally began in March 2009. Both corrections have been about an 8 percent decline in price and lasted around 4 weeks in time.

High yields will affect the mortgage markets and make it tougher for individuals to refinance or even get a mortgage for a new home buyer. The high yields will also become a negative for the United States Treasury as they will have to pay higher interest on their current debt. The U.S. Debt is around $12.5 trillion and growing everyday. This is a lot of money in interest that must be paid back to bond holders.

Currently, at of the time of this writing the market is climbing the wall of worry. Spending programs and entitlement programs are increasing by the minute, however, the market does not care. The Federal Reserve Banks has kept the Fed funds rates at zero percent for well over a year now and the market seems to love it. When the euphoria runs its course that will be when the market will pay the piper. Until then its up, up, and away.


Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Re: When Will Bad News Become A Negative?

The bull rally from the March 2009 lows is now euphoric. It seems that the kitchen sink can be thrown at the market and it will still rise. A little over a year ago if someone sneezed the market would decline, and drop sharply. Today, it goes up on a daily basis as the market has been down only a handful of trading days since February 5th, 2010. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) has risen nearly 12 percent in just five short weeks along with the rest of the major indexes.

While the Obama economic team and the Federal Reserve Bank are out declaring victory there are many negatives that are occurring at this time. The first negative that everyone should watch for is the high energy prices that the U.S. consumer will have to pay. The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:USO) is trading at it a new 52 week high climbing above its long sideways base that it has been in since June 2009. When crude climbs usually gasoline follows. The United States Gasoline Fund ETF (NYSE:UGA) is trading at a new high 52 week high as well today. This means there will be higher gasoline prices at the pump for all those that are looking to drive and need to commute. This is a major negative for the markets.

The next important negative news for the stock market will be the 10 Year T-Note yields trading at or above 4.00 percent. When yields have hit or reached this level it has been a negative for the stock market. This has been when the market actually had a correction. Granted there have only been two corrections in the stock market since the rally began in March 2009. Both corrections have been about an 8 percent decline in price and lasted around 4 weeks in time.

High yields will affect the mortgage markets and make it tougher for individuals to refinance or even get a mortgage for a new home buyer. The high yields will also become a negative for the United States Treasury as they will have to pay higher interest on their current debt. The U.S. Debt is around $12.5 trillion and growing everyday. This is a lot of money in interest that must be paid back to bond holders.

Currently, at of the time of this writing the market is climbing the wall of worry. Spending programs and entitlement programs are increasing by the minute, however, the market does not care. The Federal Reserve Banks has kept the Fed funds rates at zero percent for well over a year now and the market seems to love it. When the euphoria runs its course that will be when the market will pay the piper. Until then its up, up, and away.


Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

I think it is more likely that good news will become a negative in the short term.. when will the economy have "recovered" enough for rates to start creeping up ?.. we overshot the downside and shouldnt be that surprised that we are now overshooting the upside!
 
A Volume Wasteland As Markets Reach For The Sky

The markets gapped slightly lower today on a stronger dollar. The dollar inched up overnight as word came of more Greece issues. It has truly been amazing that other countries so far have not voiced any problems. Italy, Spain, Portugal and others are obviously on the list of problem countries but have yet to say anything. Any normal economic or trading player knows the problems exist, but for now, the markets seem to avoid it. This market is a classic case of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. As long as the markets have their blinders on, they seem to chug higher.

Today is really no different. Regardless of the initial gap lower, the markets have headed sideways to higher almost every 10 minute candle of the trading day. See the chart below. Volume is now as dry as the Sahara Desert.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is flat to positive on the day. The lunch session is in full swing and the markets await word from the Federal Reserve later, when the FOMC Minutes are released. It is important to note that there has been talk over the last day, of a Federal Reserve meeting, possibly on raising the Discount Rate or other important rates. So far, we have had no word on action.

The financial stocks are driving this market higher today. After the passage of the Healthcare Bill, financial regulation was sure to follow quickly. Speaking opening, it does seem that the rhetoric has quieted down for now. Why you ask? Perhaps because the administration realizes the markets could sell sharply on it. Financial regulation will come, however, it will be done gently, with kid gloves on, as to not upset the markets. That has been the way the administration has handled things. Treat Wall Street like a celebrity, give them what they want and always be gentle. We all know what happened back in January when President Obama was not gentle with his initial talk of financial regulation. The markets dumped almost 10%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is leading the financial stocks today. It is up 1.15%. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) is also leading with a gain of 1.90%. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) percentage wise is not leading, with a gain of just 0.40%.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Don't Look Now The Dollar Dropped Again

It almost seems to never fail. If you happened to read the 9:33 am EST blog post regarding the U.S. Dollar it has played out again. Almost every single day that we see the dollar trade higher before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange it will fade from the highs. When the dollar declines most commodity and inflationary stocks will trade higher. These days even banks, and small caps seem to take thier lead and move higher as the dollar declines.

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Markets Fight Back, Refusing To Be Down Two Straight Days

The markets are slightly lower for the second day in a row. Global jitters are showing themselves again with Greece. At 8:30am ET, Jobless Claims were released. They showed a jump to 460,000. Expectations were for 442,000. This negative news did not have a major impact on the markets. Overall, the markets seem to be taking the recent non stop rally to heart. It has been a meteoric rise and without continued great news, the markets look like they need to pause or pull back.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is trading lower on the day, down $1.70 (-.70%). Apple Inc. continues to hammer into the $240.00 resistance level. The IPAD has been released, the run has happened, now where does Apple go from here? Also, word that Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) is releasing an IPAD like device with a built in camera, USB and more, called the Slate, means competitors are quickly matching Apple's products.

Financial firm Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) is having a very strong day. Goldman Sachs jumped yesterday when the market was weak and is continuing its run today. The stock is up 1.35%. Recently, Goldman Sachs has been one of the weaker financial stocks compared to rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC). Goldman Sachs is known for their trading prowess unlike JPM and WFC who are known as more pure banks. With little talk of bank regulation in the near future, Goldman Sachs seems to be rebounding.

Amazon.com, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AMZN) is also having a fantastic day. Same store sales reported today for some retailers. They were robust to say the least. In addition, earnings reports from Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE:FDO), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BBBY) and Hot Topic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOTT) were glowing. This shows that the consumer is buying like the good old days. While the consumer is buying, this Chief Market Strategist feels it is just pent up demand over the last two years that is now finally being released. The great earnings should continue, but be aware that six months from now consumer spending may stall. To explain this further, think of someone who wanted to replace all the windows in their house two years ago, but the economy was just too bad. Now those windows are just horrible and with things looking a little better, that consumer is now at a point where they must do it. My fear would be, once this is done, could consumer spending fall back off? This is not something that will show up for at least six months though, in my opinion.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
The Trick Of DOW 11,000: How The Game Is Played.

DOW 11,000 is closing quickly. Today is Friday, light volume continues to plague the markets and this makes it a perfect opportunity for the "powers that be" to push the DOW over 11,000. As of now we are hovering within an jump of that key level.

To understand the reasoning behind DOW 11,000, one must understand the markets over the last year. As volume has been suppressed, the markets have turned into somewhat of a game by large banks, the U.S. Government and of course the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke has a theory and he is putting it to the test. Make the U.S. consumer believe a recovery is underway and a recovery will happen. In other words, fool the public, making them believe there is a recovery of epic proportions and the consumer will go spend, spend, spend. The spending will in fact create the recovery.

Why does this have anything to do with DOW 11,000? Often times, you will notice, major levels on the DOW are hit on Friday's. The understand this theory, think of when most consumers do their shopping. Yes, the weekend. To have the consumer spend the most money, key levels on indexes must be breached on Friday's. By doing this, the news pumps the level, consumers see this and feel more confident in spending money on the weekend. DOW 11,000 on Friday makes for a beautiful headline. It is truly a test of the Ben Bernanke theory. Let's hope it works for all our sakes. If it fails, we are even worse off than when we started just a few years ago. Trillions in stimulus have been pumped into the system to lift the markets and for that to be in vain would be a shame.

The markets are hovering near their highs at lunch time. The U.S. Dollar has been hammered keeping the inflatable flotation device, also known as the markets, higher regardless of a downgrade to the debt rating in Greece. Stocks carrying the markets today are clearly Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX). XOM is up 1.50% while CVX is higher by 2.15%. Monstrous moves from two stocks in the DOW.

Other leaders in the DOW are AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), up 1.10%, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), up 1.25%, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), up a whopping 3.10%. These DOW components are lifting the index closer and closer to the infamous 11,000 level. One small buy program late in the day should send us over that magic number for the big headlines at the close and all weekend long.

On Monday, prepare for earnings to begin. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) which is -2.90% on the day is reporting earnings after the close. They are expected to make $0.12 per share and the whisper number has now been trimmed to just $0.08. Expectations have been lowered on AA greatly in the last few weeks. Watch this one closely, to shape trading on Tuesday.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Technical Alert: Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) Runs Into Double Top

Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) has run into a double top at the $45.50 level. This could be a major level of resistance for the stock and should be watched closely. The stock has soared in recent weeks, from a low of $35.00 just two months ago. Retailers have reported stellar sales recently as the pent up demand is finally exploding. The stock price reflects that currently. The question is, does the pent up demand continue at this torrid pace?

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Market Analysis From A Traders Eye As Earnings Take Center Stage

The markets gapped slightly lower on the day as the earnings report from Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) lagged expectations. While earnings were in line with what analysts had expected, revenue did come in light. With pricing increases over the quarter, this brings to mind weakness in demand as the culprit. This worried Wall Street and Alcoa Inc. is lower on the day by 2.06%.

All eyes now shift to Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) which reports after the close. Earnings expectations are for $0.38 per share while the whisper number is for $0.41. Intel Corp. has moved dramatically higher over the last few months and will need a stellar report to boost the stock price further. Margins as well as revenue numbers are going to be watched closely.

As a technical trader, the top play of the day was the hit of the 200ma, on the intra day 10 minute chart, on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). I gave this to my members as an optimal long play. Sure enough, the bounce came in beautifully. Profits were had by all. What is encouraging about today is the slight increase in volume. Yesterday, the SPY barely did 100 million in volume. Today, with the earnings news from Alcoa, we should push through that level easily. In addition, each day going forward, should see more volume as options expiration, earnings and economic news increase. Swing trading and day trading should be fantastic.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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