Income from betting exchanges

[rgsharp]

On lighter note, just received an up date disc from one of the online casinos that I have had bonus money from, offering me some more. Nice, often happens, strangely. Amongst other things they offer this sage advise for BJ strategy "you will win more if you always split A and 8s". Lovely.

 

[Trader333]

Does the 3M method use different stakes depending upon the odds of each horse in a race ?
So for example if you decided to stake 10% of your bank which may be £90 and you wish to back 3 horses in a race do you place £30 on each or do you put more on the lower odds horse and less on higher odds ?


Paul

 

[Euro_d]

Does the 3M method use different stakes depending upon the odds of each horse in a race ?
So for example if you decided to stake 10% of your bank which may be £90 and you wish to back 3 horses in a race do you place £30 on each or do you put more on the lower odds horse and less on higher odds ?


Paul

Hi Paul, nice to see you again.
Yes, the odds govern the stake and are arranged so that you win the same amount whichever wins. Of course it all selections in a particular race loose, you loose the lot; 1, 2, or 3 selections. I have never seen more than 3. Let me know if you want the spreadsheet. Its dead simple to construct though.
Dave

 

[Roberto]

3M Method update

11th April no bets.
12th April 2 bets 1 winner. I made a very small loss on the day: the winner was 11/10 at SP and was (unusually) the sole selection in the race, but I took an earlier price which actually turned out to be worse than SP, though 90+% of the time that would be the other way round with a short-priced favourite.
Currently staking at 6% of bank per race, divided in appropriate proportions between the selections.

 

[rgsharp]

Your right Roberto short priced fav.s don@t usualy lengthen and I hate betting them anyway. Out of interest which race, if you don't mind?
Richard...

 

[Roberto]

Shannon Springs (4.35 Newmarket) 11/10 (I took about 10/11 much earlier)

 

[Euro_d]

Betfair odds

Hi guys,
I think Roberto did better that I did. I backed early (as soon as the selections were posted) and matched between 1.88 & 1.84 (seems that there was little money in the exchanges yesterday) which is worse that Roberto's odds.
Did you use the exchanges or a traditional bookie?

You both absolutely align with my experiences, I have been taking screen dumps of very early prices on Betfair and comparing them with later i.e. just before the off, and the favorites generally shorten.
I have been thinking of using this info to create arbs.

Anyway, a small loss on the day but not the disaster that it originally looked.

BTW, I have decided to follow RTW's advice by the book and am staking 10% per race, proportioned where there are multiple selections.
Good luck to all.
Dave

 

[Roberto]

3M Method update

I think Roberto did better that I did. ...
Did you use the exchanges or a traditional bookie?

Betfair.

I have decided to follow RTW's advice by the book and am staking 10% per race, proportioned where there are multiple selections.

Then you have done better than I did today, I'm sure. I've decided to stick with 6%.

13th April, 4 races (number of runners backed in each 2, 3, 3 and 2), 3 winners, 1 lost. I managed to add a total of 4.4% on to my bank. Which I certainly wouldn't mind every day.

 

[Roberto]

3M Method update

14th April - would have done better throwing darts at the Racing Post today. 2 races, 3 selections in each race, no winner (only 1 horse even placed out of the 6). To be fair, one of them was a late non-runner, which at least limited my losses to 9.44% of my bank rather than the 11.64% I'd originally imagined.

 

[Euro_d]

Also gutted!

Me too.
To be fair, in both races outsiders came in. One at 13 the other at 15. Would have been nice to have picked one of those!
Ah such is life, tomorrow is another day.

 

[Euro_d]

Did you notice?

That the 3M selections differed from "back to win" selections?
Normally they are identical. I actually lost less as I backed the other 2 selections with half the stake, Poor odds thout 1.66 .
Oh yes, 1 winner, 1 looser, 1 non runner.
The rationale is simply that I had to go out this morning and I assumed (incorrectly) that the website was in the process of updating.

 

[Euro_d]

BJ Strategy

On your lighter note Richard you mention the BJ strategy. I am sure I am being naive but it sounds the most interesting thing I have heard in a long time and cannot wait to try it???
Or more correctly having it tried on me!

On that note I think it best I call it a day!

 

[Roberto]

To be fair, in both races outsiders came in.

Yes, and the first one was obviously an "unfortunate race" according to the Sporting Life website report. "Our" three selections came 4th, 7th and 8th out of 8 runners, after being held up; and there was a stewards' enquiry too.

I didn't notice that the "back to win" ones were different; today was probably the first day I haven't really looked at them, actually because my cleaner was hassling me at the time!

 

[rgsharp]

What were the races, guys?
I know you are not supposed to do this, but I am interested in comparing their selections with my knowledge and experiance. ie is it a race I would get involved in ordinarily.
Richard...

PS. fantastic claims from Brimardon in todays post

 

[Roberto]

What were the races, guys? I know you are not supposed to do this

I don't see that anyone's going to object after the results are out, are they? It's only like reporting on closed trades from a signal service ... we're paying for the service (well, I am) so we're entitled to review it ...

2.20 Newmarket (Etlaala, Montgomery's Arch, Iceman)
3.45 Cheltenham (Cherub, Jair Ohmsford, Chockdee)

 

[Euro_d]

One of those days...

I didn't notice that the "back to win" ones were different; today was probably the first day I haven't really looked at them, actually because my cleaner was hassling me at the time!

I assume that your subs include all 3 services, back to win, 3m and lay? Mine does and I have asked them to drop the lays, for a reduction in price of course. Strange, they have not replied! No matter, I am up including the fees and even after todays fiasco so as long as they perform overall then I will continue paying.

BTW did you get the email "wanna buy a gee gee"?

 

[Roberto]

I assume that your subs include all 3 services, back to win, 3m and lay?

Yes ... I've got a slightly different deal from you, though, I think ... I bought the 3M book and they included a month's subs (all 3 services) with that. After the first month I get to pay £77 per month to renew if I want to. I'm not far off level at the moment, very early to tell. But 1 month isn't really enough to measure anything, anyway ... I can't quite remember exactly why I bought this in the first place, to be honest - I normally have a rule that I don't buy anything unless I'm satisfied that it's been independently verified for at least a year. I must have had a good day trading Ross hooks, or something!

BTW did you get the email "wanna buy a gee gee"?

Yes ... and I didn't delete it yet (I have a friend who might well be interested, actually ... he has shares in 2 or 3 horses at the moment. And Nick Littmoden's a pretty good trainer, by all accounts).

 

[Euro_d]

Ross Hooks

Hi Roberto,
Yep the deal is different. I pay £19.95 per month and they give the lay book after month one and the 3M book after month 2. I guess it works out more or less the same.



Anyway, as my trading for the first 3 months has been poor I am now studying Ross hooks from one of your other posts. It seems to fit well with my trading style. More importantly, I need to change something as for the first 3 months of this year I am down each month! Not a disaster as I have good money management in place but it is a very uncomfortable feeling!

Good luck

Dave

 

[rgsharp]

I don't see that anyone's going to object after the results are out, are they? It's only like reporting on closed trades from a signal service ... we're paying for the service (well, I am) so we're entitled to review it ...

2.20 Newmarket (Etlaala, Montgomery's Arch, Iceman)
3.45 Cheltenham (Cherub, Jair Ohmsford, Chockdee)

Thanks for that. I realised after I had posted that my comment about not doing this, could be read differently to what I ment (communication is a wonderful tool ) What I ment was, I know you are supposed to run these systems blind, but I am interested in the race info. as part of the evaluation process.
At the risk od seeming to be fixated with Brimardon (which I suppose I am a bit) they are now offering evaluation trials for 3 months @ £1475, shortest membership is normaly for 6 months.

BTW
2.20 New. I would have bet in, something wrong with fav. as it came last?
3.45 chelt. I probably wouldn't, being a Novice Hurdle ( no form so a bit of a lottery). Incidentaly, the Owner of the winner lives near me & is very renowned for getting nice priced horses out for a win.

 

[Euro_d]

The end of a S**** week

Hmm, today as I write we have 3 selections and 2 are loosers.
Sad to say!

BTW Richard, Brimadon have offered the 3 month trial before, I seem to remember that form when I was involved a few years ago.

I hope for at least Roberto and me that the third selection comes in!
Otherwise, no champers at the weekend.