I'm calling it the sombrero.

[TheBramble]

Pattern? What pattern....?

 

[TheBramble]

At what point in any future price developmentthat looks like the first X bars of this will you say "Yay!!! Sombrero", and trade it?

 

[TheBramble]

Because whatever number of X bars you say defines Sombrero I'm pretty sure I can come up with more instances of them, then it failing, than you can with it working.

Really not negging your research and insights and welcome the brief diversion into trading related material on this site, but Sombrero currently lacks any sensible definition.

 

[Pazienza]

Because whatever number of X bars you say defines Sombrero I'm pretty sure I can come up with more instances of them, then it failing, than you can with it working.

Really not negging your research and insights and welcome the brief diversion into trading related material on this site, but Sombrero currently lacks any sensible definition.

It's just a pattern though after all. In fact, it could be an x-ray of a pin bar with a strong close in the desired direction. The action is basically the same.

 

[TheBramble]

There is no pattern.

Until CV or someone else says "Hey look, whenever it does this there's a Y% probability it will do this" and has the data to confirm it.

Anything better than 50% would get my attention.

Even the traditional 'patterns' are close to 50%. That's right, as likely to form as fail. Trade that.

Barjon's 'wot happened next' were a case in point. One bod made a fist of it. Nobody else had a fuggin clue. And MF wasn't using TA....LOL.

 

[Pazienza]

There is no pattern.

Until CV or someone else says "Hey look, whenever it does this there's a Y% probability it will do this" and has the data to confirm it.

Anything better than 50% would get my attention.

Even the traditional 'patterns' are close to 50%. That's right, as likely to form as fail. Trade that.

Barjon's 'wot happened next' were a case in point. One bod made a fist of it. Nobody else had a fuggin clue. And MF wasn't using TA....LOL.

Sure, I doubt there are any patterns or bar formations or whatever that have a hit rate of better than 50%, although I don't think that doesn't mean they can't be useful.

In the pattern in question, we're looking at a long rising channel with a substantial lower spike. In effect, that's just a pin bar / hammer / whatever, with a "strong" close.

But I agree, blindly trading any of these things - H&s, flags, monkey hanging from a tree on the outskirts of Osaka catching flies etc - is not going to lead to success.

 

[wackypete2]

At what point in any future price developmentthat looks like the first X bars of this will you say "Yay!!! Sombrero", and trade it?

If x=10 bars, I'd be to sloshed to say anything comprehensible.

NOTE: If you see me on the floor please prop me back up on the stool. Many Thanks!

Peter

 

[barjon]

................Barjon's 'wot happened next' were a case in point. One bod made a fist of it. Nobody else had a fuggin clue. And MF wasn't using TA....LOL.

hey, there's an idea - shall i set up some more wots?

 

[counter_violent]

Well lets assume then that all patterns are no better than 50:50. I'm perfactly happy not to even argue that this is so. So we can then take these 50:50 set ups and apply the next filter, which in this case might be "delivery of expectation" in other words, if price ain't behaving how you want it to behave...then get the f out. Winners will take care of themselves and the losers will be cut . Simples.

 

[TheBramble]

hey, there's an idea - shall i set up some more wots?

No.

Mr. Charts brought home to me with one of his earlier posts what you don’t get in FX – volume. And the reason why I almost gave up on FX for some time back, coming from a time & sales background.

Then you get to realising that even WITH volume, there’s games and spoofs. Precisely WHEN in the bar in question did it move off the level and with what volume? Beginning, all the way through, at the end? And if not linear, what and when. 2 cents on 100,00 volume all the way through the bar then 10 cents on 100 in the closing seconds of the bar. Makes you want to trade nothing but the tick and level II…

I think I eventually realised there was less game playing n FX precisely because there was no reliable overall volume.

And that’s probably why the series died out. A great concept, but it rather identified the weak spot. Even those that believe they trade almost only on price action actually use a lot more context than is provided in a single chart. MM (MF) was the exception and this was probably because of his work with orphaned chimps.

 

[Pazienza]

Well lets assume then that all patterns are no better than 50:50. I'm perfactly happy not to even argue that this is so. So we can then take these 50:50 set ups and apply the next filter, which in this case might be "delivery of expectation" in other words, if price ain't behaving how you want it to behave...then get the f out. Winners will take care of themselves and the losers will be cut . Simples.

True.

Plus a pattern etc is only part of the picture. And one can also use the fact that some fail to great advantage.

 

[counter_violent]

As for volume...well what can I say...no disrespect at all for anyone capable of using volume in their trading activities, but to me it's absolutely meaningless and not at all necessary.
An elephant in the room is an elephant in the room...I don't need to hear it trumpet to know it's an elephant.

 

[wackypete2]

I never used volume when I traded US stocks so moving to forex without volume was no issue for me. I just keep it simple and try not to over analyze. The more thinking I do the more fooked up my trading gets!

Peter

 

[TheBramble]

An elephant in the room is an elephant in the room...I don't need to hear it trumpet to know it's an elephant.

I am going to bed now CV. I am taking your quote with me. I'm not sure, but if I have unhappy dreams I'll let you know all about it in the morning.

 

[counter_violent]

Ok here's another with bbmac's abc etc. d 1, 2 or 3. similarly e 1, 2 or 3 or does it not really matter seeing as how the price remains on the diagonal.

NB d1 is a lower price than b

 

[counter_violent]

Ok this one is happening as we speeeeek. Lets see what happens !

 

[Joey25]

Do these candlesticks add anything beyond normal time series line graphs? Not convinced.

 

[counter_violent]

Right, yall had advanced notice on this....no takers...trufff.

 

[counter_violent]

Delivered.

 

[forker]

I call it the the morning after the fat drunken mamma before. Love this pattern and use it often