If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[jon1971]

You may wish to try http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=151 which is pretty good in my view


Paul

Thanks I'm after a good screener, was thinking of Stockfetcher ($9 a month), any knowledge or experience of it?

 

[The Expert]

Thanks I'm after a good screener, was thinking of Stockfetcher ($9 a month), any knowledge or experience of it?

Oh alright then, but only this once mind you:cheesy:

Use the HEATMAPS to see what is in favor, and, they are free:clap:

BTW, just in case any wise guys try to jump in, I no longer use them as I have my own pdf's, remember, but they are worth the free price they are

TE

 

[jon1971]

Oh alright then, but only this once mind you:cheesy:

Use the HEATMAPS to see what is in favor, and, they are free:clap:

BTW, just in case any wise guys try to jump in, I no longer use them as I have my own pdf's, remember, but they are worth the free price they are

TE

OK cheers, TE.

 

[The Expert]

OK cheers, TE.

You are welcome J19.

http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/

TE

 

[The Expert]

OK then, no more drink for today

http://marketrac.nyse.com/Light/index.html

TE

 

[MacAttack]

I've been looking at some of the 5 minutes charts of stocks that went up today from the heat map. I have to say they look about 10 times easier to trade than the NQ futures I've been struggling with the past year.

 

[jon1971]

I've been looking at some of the 5 minutes charts of stocks that went up today from the heat map. I have to say they look about 10 times easier to trade than the NQ futures I've been struggling with the past year.

I think pre screening using benchmark index relative strength, or heatmaps, or a technical screener to identify stocks that fulfil your requirements is half the battle.

PS. TE, whilst I fully understand your point about, "the more you learn about analysis the harder trading will become, and the more likely you will be to suffer analysis paralysis." If you change your mind, I'd still be up for joining your group (notice that my request is still good), I'm up for anything that will give me a more holistic view. Assuming I survive in the business long enough to get through my mechanical stage and into subjective.

Also, just been taken out of that Pound/Dollar trade, roughly 60 pips over 4 contracts scaled out, (I'll just add that they were mini contracts, so won't be going down the Porsche dealer just yet. Protecting my ASS-ets whilst I'm still training my brain).

 

[jon1971]

I can now see that I was taken out by what looks like a blatant case of stop running. It's these sort of tactics and techniques that I want to learn more about. (Maybe I just moved my stop down too early).

Although it was still technically a good trade, which is my only objective at the moment.

 

[jon1971]

Just another point on the whole TA thing. Let's take Fib extensions, if TA only works because everyone is looking at the same levels, then why do Fib extensions works so well? It is perhaps one of the least used sources of S&R, so could be described as invisible S&R.

 

[timsk]

Just another point on the whole TA thing. Let's take Fib extensions, if TA only works because everyone is looking at the same levels, then why do Fib extensions works so well? It is perhaps one of the least used sources of S&R, so could be described as invisible S&R.

Hi jon,
Part of the problem with TA is that it is highly subjective. What qualifies as a H&S pattern, flag, ascending triangle or what have you in my book - might not make the grade in your book. The same applies to S&R. For me (and I stress for me), Fib's (and Pivots and trendlines too come to that) have very little to do with S&R. Many traders often refer to S&R occurring at all three. In my view, they are mistaken, but that's not to say that all three aren't useful TA tools, any one of which could form an integral part of a successful trading strategy. Others will disagree with me on this - and that's fine. And it's also my point, which is that TA is just a tool - or collection of tools - and nothing more.

A collection of carpentry tools won't create a table on their own. Equally, give the tools to someone who doesn't know how to use them and the table isn't any nearer to being made. But, give the same tools to an experienced chippy and, lo and behold, you've got yourself a table! How good the table is and the price it might fetch in the saleroom, is due in part to the quality of the tools used but, mostly, it's down to the skill of the carpenter.
Tim.

 

[jon1971]

Hi jon,
Part of the problem with TA is that it is highly subjective. What qualifies as a H&S pattern, flag, ascending triangle or what have you in my book - might not make the grade in your book. The same applies to S&R. For me (and I stress for me), Fib's (and Pivots and trendlines too come to that) have very little to do with S&R. Many traders often refer to S&R occurring at all three. In my view, they are mistaken, but that's not to say that all three aren't useful TA tools, any one of which could form an integral part of a successful trading strategy. Others will disagree with me on this - and that's fine. And it's also my point, which is that TA is just a tool - or collection of tools - and nothing more.

A collection of carpentry tools won't create a table on their own. Equally, give the tools to someone who doesn't know how to use them and the table isn't any nearer to being made. But, give the same tools to an experienced chippy and, lo and behold, you've got yourself a table! How good the table is and the price it might fetch in the saleroom, is due in part to the quality of the tools used but, mostly, it's down to the skill of the carpenter.
Tim.

You know what Tim, I think you've just encapsulated the entire debate with that.

 

[Trader333]

Thanks I'm after a good screener, was thinking of Stockfetcher ($9 a month), any knowledge or experience of it?

Sorry, I have no experience of them.


Paul

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hi jon,
Part of the problem with TA is that it is highly subjective. What qualifies as a H&S pattern, flag, ascending triangle or what have you in my book - might not make the grade in your book. The same applies to S&R. For me (and I stress for me), Fib's (and Pivots and trendlines too come to that) have very little to do with S&R. Many traders often refer to S&R occurring at all three. In my view, they are mistaken, but that's not to say that all three aren't useful TA tools, any one of which could form an integral part of a successful trading strategy. Others will disagree with me on this - and that's fine. And it's also my point, which is that TA is just a tool - or collection of tools - and nothing more.

A collection of carpentry tools won't create a table on their own. Equally, give the tools to someone who doesn't know how to use them and the table isn't any nearer to being made. But, give the same tools to an experienced chippy and, lo and behold, you've got yourself a table! How good the table is and the price it might fetch in the saleroom, is due in part to the quality of the tools used but, mostly, it's down to the skill of the carpenter.
Tim.

Spot on !
You've hit the nail on the head you might say :cheesy:
Anyone can buy the tools; knowing how, when, and why to use which ones (if any !), knowing your chosen market, care not to hurt yourself, self-control and growing experience and knowing what actually works and when - those are the things which produce the end result - not mere ownership or understanding of tools.
Richard

 

[Traduk]

I can now see that I was taken out by what looks like a blatant case of stop running. It's these sort of tactics and techniques that I want to learn more about. (Maybe I just moved my stop down too early).

Although it was still technically a good trade, which is my only objective at the moment.

The Doji you entered on was the beginning of the 5th wave down. The wave you played tried to extend into 7 mini waves but the 7th created a double bottom which was a failed break-through. when the little peak on the right of the failure was taken out, buyers had their sights on the two higher peaks to the right and it was odds on they were going to get them. Having taken them out they may drop to build again and run higher but likely do no better than correct part of the run down. If price drops, rebuilds and heads north again, your entry is the next peak to beat and they will probably take it out and head towards the higher ones. Whether what I conjecture happens and what happens subsequently will only be seen in price and structure development but IMO the buyers have sway for the moment but within a downtrend.

Fibonacci falls into the area of symmetry. If traders see a swing of 8 points with a correction to half-way they exit in droves after another swing of 8 points because they trade what they saw before. Sometimes its point perfect but under and over-runs do occur. The under-runs are the wise ones who have learned not to be a d**k for a tick. The over-runs move into Fibonacci areas of expansion and although the numbers have no special meaning they can be useful way-points if beaten. Reference to the right of the chart always over-rules (providing the data is reasonably current) because in passing previous reaction points in the prior trend more wrong sided traders are flushed out to feed the hoped for new trend.

 

[jon1971]

The Doji you entered on was the beginning of the 5th wave down. The wave you played tried to extend into 7 mini waves but the 7th created a double bottom which was a failed break-through. when the little peak on the right of the failure was taken out, buyers had their sights on the two higher peaks to the right and it was odds on they were going to get them. Having taken them out they may drop to build again and run higher but likely do no better than correct part of the run down. If price drops, rebuilds and heads north again, your entry is the next peak to beat and they will probably take it out and head towards the higher ones. Whether what I conjecture happens and what happens subsequently will only be seen in price and structure development but IMO the buyers have sway for the moment but within a downtrend.

Fibonacci falls into the area of symmetry. If traders see a swing of 8 points with a correction to half-way they exit in droves after another swing of 8 points because they trade what they saw before. Sometimes its point perfect but under and over-runs do occur. The under-runs are the wise ones who have learned not to be a d**k for a tick. The over-runs move into Fibonacci areas of expansion and although the numbers have no special meaning they can be useful way-points if beaten. Reference to the right of the chart always over-rules (providing the data is reasonably current) because in passing previous reaction points in the prior trend more wrong sided traders are flushed out to feed the hoped for new trend.

Not a bad summary there Traduk.

I don't start my wave count until the 50MA has started angling, so BY MY DEFINITION and not by the definition of Elliott Wave, I was entering at the start of wave three, my main reservation on the entry was a lack of momentum on the move, which proved to be relevant by the lack of distance the remainder of the trend covered.

The double bottom did indeed hold and trend now looks to have reversed to the upside, I would describe the double bottom and cycle tops where my stop got a bit of a tickle and a fill as box consolidation. I notice that I could have moved my stop down to the next cycle peak to lock in more profit, but it was an over-night trade, so I didn't get up early enough.

Notice that I previously said that I may have moved my stop down too early, if I hadn't I would have wound up with a break-even, scratched trade. This relates back to the mechanical vs. subjective thing.

 

[N Rothschild]

you do know the EW is aload of guff yeh?

 

[jon1971]

you do know the EW is aload of guff yeh?

NR, that's a bit of a sweeping statement, why do you think that?

Incidentally I don't use EW per se, so I'm not trying to defend it.

Traduk, my entry bar being a doji, is incidental and did not factor in my decision, however, candlestick patterns are a form of technical indicator, so that further supports the case for TA.

Also, (although, I've not put the levels on), yes the retrace from the low following the entry looks to be about 50% Fib. You see that's where your experience comes in, you saw it immediately, I saw it only after you'd pointed it out.

 

[N Rothschild]

the reason it doesn't work is highlighted in both your posts! no 2 elloticians could ever agree on what wave of 123 or abs or sub-wave bla bla..EW is great in hindsight but as for predicting the market, doesn't work IMO. sometimes it does, but like most other TA things i don't count something that works "sometimes" as working.

 

[dcraig1]

Thanks I'm after a good screener, was thinking of Stockfetcher ($9 a month), any knowledge or experience of it?

Yes, it is quite good for what it is and the price it is. Very comprehensive set of technical indicators and a limited backtesting facility. I subscribed to it for a while until I wrote my own which does lots of things that SF can't (including "real time" intraday).

 

[jon1971]

Yes, it is quite good for what it is and the price it is. Very comprehensive set of technical indicators and a limited backtesting facility. I subscribed to it for a while until I wrote my own which does lots of things that SF can't (including "real time" intraday).

Thanks.