I Need some help

luckyonenot

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Ok chaps this is my first post so please be gentle, First some background, i've traded cfd's and shares for about two years with mixed success, overall i have just about broken even and i consider the last two years to be a period of free education. However i always wanted to trade the ftse cash index and so did some homework, risk reward, TA etc and set off with confidence to make a fortune. And then the wheel fell off, my first two trades got me £100 and £116 but the third lost me £1800, i did all the wrong things, moved the stop cos i thought the index would recover(it didn't) and now after examining my three trades i realise that it was all pure guesswork and i'm lost, any suggestions. Anyone out there that trades the ftse, what do you look at first, any help would be appreciated.:confused:
 
Hi Luckyonenot

I think, to start with, you're asking the wrong questions. I think you should be focused on fixing the main problem which is your risk control (you seem to have had a rabbit in the headlights moment to lose the amount you did - we've all been there, don't worry). As you probably know, if you carry on making £100 winners and £1800 losers, you are going to go broke unless your win rate is around 95%! Trust me, the market is very random and chance dependant - you aren't going to be getting close to this win rate.

So, I suggest you start off by knowing what the max amount you wish to lose is BEFORE you even enter the trade. For example, if you are trading the equivalent of a £10/point spread bet and your max amount you want to lose is £100, enter the market and set your stop immediately 10 ticks away from your entry price (and don't widen it). Also, the max amount should be relative to your account size - typically I recommend new traders not risk more than 1% of their total account. I.e. £100 stop loss per trade would require an account size of £10,000.

Once you've sorted your risk out, you can start to look for areas of interest (setups) in the FTSE or other markets. There are many threads on this site which feature analysis which you may like to use, I have added a few links below but I still recommend you do your own research:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/26464-3-ducks-trading-system.html
Just because this is in the Forex section, doesn't mean it doesn't hold any value for equities and indices.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/us-stocks/38036-how-make-money-trading-markets.html

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/32991-potential-setups.html


At the end of the day, you are not trying to win any specific trade - focus on winning trades and you'll drive yourself round the bend and get demoralised. Instead, your focus should be on maximising the profit on trades which go well for you and cutting losses as soon as you know a trade isn't going to work. Thus, allowing you to profit over many trades and not just a single (lucky) one.

Good luck

JD
 
For beginners, and I still include myself in this bracket, the aim of the early game is not to make a lot of money, it is to not lose a lot of money. Stops should be set by TA at the nearest possible point to your entry that would prove that your position is more likely not to be joined by other traders (its new participants, buying or shorting, that move the price), and so what you thought would happen is probably not going to. The stop point itself will need to be modified a little to allow for spreads (which also open out wider at times) and a little for normal (i.e. not exceptional) market volatility. Whether your stop is automated or manual, always respect your stop: in fact, when price starts to run towards it, start scaling out. Don't ever widen the stop or double up on a losing position.
 
I’ve been trading the FTSE for 9 months now and here is the advice I wish someone had given me when I started. I answer at length in the hope it might help you and even stimulate a useful debate. I like it when people tell me I’m wrong, but only if they clearly articulate why and give concrete examples.

Here we go -

Don’t trust anyone’s opinion but your own and if you don’t trust that, don’t bet more than you are happy, yes more than content, to lose in the name of ‘lessons learnt’. Don’t listen to market news or expert opinion; they are like the weather forecast, they only tell you what has happened up to this point, but nothing beyond it. No-one can say that the price is going to move up or down, whether it’s going to rain on you or not, and when the experts give predictions that come to pass, they don’t tell you whether it will be today, next week of next month.

Immediately after opening a position raise a stop order and never, ever move it. Repeat that to yourself twenty times at the start of each trading day. 1-10% of the time you will regret this, which means that 90-99% of the time you will be pleased that you limited your losses. Read again and again.

Never lead, always follow. Never anticipate, wait for things to happen. Trade in the direction of the market according to simple moving averages, for example. Don’t buck the trend, follow the herd.

Keep a daily record of all your trades - I keep daily charts with annotations of where I entered and exited. It’s amazing to see how often you break your own rules, which is a totally dumb thing to do. Analysis involves seeing what has happened, discipline is the ability to act as it is happening and is infinitely harder.

Forget all but a few technical indicators that work for you. I have a university degree in mathematics and statistics and would love to use my knowledge, but the market isn’t listening. However, the market is NOT random, it does move in an orderly fashion. News also usually has no effect: unemployment figures etc are already built into the price. It’s only when the anticipation is wrong that the price moves and when it does, it moves very fast only to normalise again later in the day, usually. Of course, there is unexpected news like the Dubai debt that moves the market, but again you are reacting, not anticipating.

You can see how the market follows an orderly path by drawing Gann Fans, which I discovered after developing a technique using multi-level ‘cones of activity’, which proved the same thing, but again you cannot predict which line it will follow or even if the price will rise or fall.

I could go on and on and on. But that’s enough for now. You won’t find the meaning of life in a book or how to successfully trade the stock market in a book. Back to point one: don’t trust anyone but yourself and then only after you’ve proved to yourself through results that your technique works. No one else has the answers. Of course, there must be some valuable education classes out there worth the money, but that is what you’re paying for ‘knowledge transfer’, the ability is down to you.

FTSE (& Forex pairs I expect) have many behavioural characteristics, which are never mentioned in the books, but are there for all to see and should form the basis of a reliable trading method. I have a pile of trading books a metre high, but have they helped me?

James
 
Hi James

Good first post and welcome to T2W.

I thought I would share another view point on a couple of things you said. Not suggesting you are wrong on these (you aren't), I'm just adding another way in which you can view a couple of the points you made.

Never lead, always follow. Never anticipate, wait for things to happen.

When opening a trade, you have the choice to enter before or after market confirmation - e.g. break of support, etc:

Waiting for market confirmation will often increase the percentage chance of the chosen direction being right, at the expense of a higher risk and slightly less reward (due to the fact we are entering later and at a worse price).

Anticipating the market, allows risk to be kept tight and slightly more reward potential (as we have entered earlier) at the expense of less percentage chance that we have called the market direction correctly.

Neither method of entry is right or wrong, it's whatever works for the trader.

However, the market is NOT random, it does move in an orderly fashion.

The market, IMO, is often random. It is not 100% random as there is an innate positive feedback loop present (a phenomenon known as induction). I.e. prices moving higher often causes more momentum in the upward direction and vica-versa. Therefore, my perspective on the randomness of the markets is a 50:50 one where it is as equally random as it is inductive (I'm just guessing the ratio - it could be more or less).

Even if the market was 100% random, it would form orderly price movements from time to time (in line with the Infinite Monkey Theorum: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem). As it happens, it forms orderly patterns too frequently to be truly random but not, IMO, frequently enough to be viewed as truly orderly either.

Best

JD
 
Thank you for your kind and helpful comments tomorton & Jaydee and I’m hoping this is helping luckyonenot.

The following are five of my current opinions which I will change very quickly when presented with better more substantial reasons than those I currently have. I write them as questions and partially answer some, but not all. I’d be really interested in the opinion of others, which may simply be links to previously expressed opinions.

1 - What’s the difference between Gambling & Trading?
2 - What market?
3 - Is the market random?
4 - How to make money?
5 - Is it easier to trade Forex than the ftse?


1 - What’s the difference between Gambling & Trading?

When you trade you have a rational justification for taking an action based on analysis and afterwards you can examine in detail whether your judgement was good or not. My words are few and a little clumsy, but you get my point? If you cannot explain why you are about to enter a position, then don’t. I give myself this advice all the time, but it’s difficult to accept.


2 - What market?

I focus on one index: the ftse and I only trade between the hours of 8am and 4:30pm. These are self-imposed constraints in the belief that you must do one thing really well before moving on to others such as forex. Whatever you learn about the ftse is applicable to most, if not all, other markets. Another benefit is that ftse becomes like an old friend, you can say: “Oh, you are doing that today are you? You did exactly the same yesterday, how splendid!” Or, “You rat, you looked like you were doing this, now you’re doing that, well I saw you – you don’t fool me”.


3 - Is the market random?

If I flip a coin 100 times and call “tails” every time I should break even. The edge of the coin is neutral, neither heads nor tails – only expect this result on a sandy beach. Given my ftse constraints neutral comes up quite a lot i.e. the open and close of the 0800-1630 day is often about the same, the consequence being that to consistently make money you have to trade intraday i.e. throughout the day. Most times the market finishes up or down (heads or tails). I haven’t done the research yet, but I guess one might expect 50/50 with a skew depending on a bull or bear, up or down trend.

Note also: it should be equally easy to make money as it is to lose money in a random market (heads/tails, 50/50), so obviously other factors are involved: when to enter/exit, when to bail out/hold your nerve. “Is the market random?” is the wrong question or a futile one even when we define the market as the ftse index between 0800-1630. A more valid question would be “Are there recognisable patterns in the charts of the ftse?” The answer is a resounding “Yes” - the same things happen time and time again, but the next question is more difficult: “Is it possible to recognise these patterns (events) as they are developing?”


4 - How to make money?

You must be able to say: If this, then that (If x, then y). What is x? What is y?
X is a developing pattern (my opinion remember), but I have also learned to carefully place stops when news is expected. So, what is a pattern? It’s a recognisable shape, which is easier to see using a fast moving average i.e. of about 3 points. There is no more responsive technical indicator than a moving average, are there? Indicators just paint a picture of the past and I don’t find them useful for intraday trading. Although you could use a SAR (Parabolic Stop & Reverse) to help place stops or highlight the price action.
Incidentally, when the price enters the ‘Dead Zone’ i.e. consolidation i.e. the price moves sideways you know that the price will eventually breakout, although it make take a few hours. Best not to be in.

Elliot Wave theory has made some remarkable predictions, Fibonacci numbers apply to all kind of things and there are even Astrology based trading websites! But if I am trading the ftse intraday I need to know “do I go long or short right now?” How else can you do that without pattern recognition or trend lines? Perhaps, and this is my most serious point or question, what really matters is money management i.e. minimising your losses and maximising your gains – It’s so easy to say.


5 – Is it easier to trade Forex than the ftse?

Maybe I should look at a longer timescale and consider swing trading or trending following?

James
 
1 - What’s the difference between Gambling & Trading?

When you trade you have a rational justification for taking an action based on analysis and afterwards you can examine in detail whether your judgement was good or not. My words are few and a little clumsy, but you get my point? If you cannot explain why you are about to enter a position, then don’t. I give myself this advice all the time, but it’s difficult to accept.

This is a good question and one where you need to define the word 'gambling' before answering it. Personally, I regard gambling as an activity where someone risks money with the anticipation of making more money which involves differing amounts of chance and skill relative to the type of activity being undertaken. Therefore, to me, trading is gambling along with poker, roulette, starting a business, etc.

To others, trading isn't gambling because they regard gambling as an activity where you can only lose in the long run. I.e. in a casino, the house has a slight edge which allow it to make significant profits over the participants given enough time. Essentially, the punters have a negative expectation over an infinite number of flips, spins, hands, trades, etc. However, it is worth noting that most traders lose and, therefore, have a negative expectation when trading - this, by definition, would make them gamblers.
 
Ok chaps this is my first post so please be gentle, First some background, i've traded cfd's and shares for about two years with mixed success, overall i have just about broken even and i consider the last two years to be a period of free education. However i always wanted to trade the ftse cash index and so did some homework, risk reward, TA etc and set off with confidence to make a fortune. And then the wheel fell off, my first two trades got me £100 and £116 but the third lost me £1800, i did all the wrong things, moved the stop cos i thought the index would recover(it didn't) and now after examining my three trades i realise that it was all pure guesswork and i'm lost, any suggestions. Anyone out there that trades the ftse, what do you look at first, any help would be appreciated.:confused:

I usually have not got anything interesting to say and my english is **** as rain but I found something today:

Step 6: Exercise Patience

Patience Affirmation. Patience is a sign of superiority.

Patience. The person who is patient earns the respect and friendship of others. Maitaining an unruffled temper and even disposition gives you an advantage over any situation you find yourself up against. Indeed, the advantage is so great that this is an area that you should devote A LOT of attention to.

Patience Exercise. Study the following affirmations.

1. Patience is a grand virtue.
2. Patience gives power.
3. Patience wins friends.
4. Patience frustrates enemies!
5. Patience overcomes difficulties and outlasts discouragement.

Memorize the Following:
A handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains. – Dutch Proverb

Learn the art of patience. Apply discipline to your thoughts when they become anxious over the outcome of a goal. Impatience breeds anxiety, fear, discouragement and failure. Patience creates confidence, decisiveness, and a rational outlook, which eventually leads to success. – Brian Adams
 
Hi tenbobtrader

I’ve just done a very quick visual comparison of a forex chart (GBP/USD) with the ftse 100 index. Using 8 hour intervals over a month they look much the same i.e. trade either, but not both over this timescale. Using 5 minute intervals over half a day, the ftse looks the simpler to trade. Using 10 minute intervals, it’s the forex.
I’ll start some serious research next week, which many subscribers to t2w have definitely done already. Maybe one or two are prepared to share their findings?
Is GBP/USD a dumb choice, what is better and why?
A quick look says to me: there’s not much difference. Why am I wrong?

James
 
Solution For Earning Without investment

Making Money from Stock Market – Tips for Beginners

Making money from stock markets requires trading in the stock market. Prudent buying, holding and selling of stocks generate profits and money. Stock trading is the function that interacts and organizes in the stock market.

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This market involves buying and selling of millions of shares all over the world, and generates profit. A share of this profit comes to the successful trader in the stock market. That is how s/he makes money from the stock market.

It is a mystery how this large a volume and value of trade is accommodated in the system of trading. These financial markets are marvels of technological capacity.
As a beginner, you must understand essentially how the market works. You don’t have to know all of the technicalities of buying and selling stocks.

The first and foremost you need to know is the functioning of the exchange floor, irrespective of whether you trade through the floor or electronically.

When the market opens, hundreds of people are seen fast moving about shouting and gesticulating to one another, staring at monitors, and entering data into terminals, or busy on cell-phones on the exchange floor. It looks like a complete fiasco.

However, by the time the end of the day approaches, the market has worked out all the trades, and is all set for the next day.

These are the steps in a simple trade on the exchange floor of any major Stock Exchange:
You instruct your broker to buy a number of shares of a company at the current market price.

The broker’s order department passes the order on to their floor clerk, the dealing official, in the exchange.

From this person it goes to one of the firm’s floor traders whose task it is to find another floor trader wanting to sell that number of shares of the company you wanted. Each floor trader has particular knowledge of which floor traders deal in what stocks.

The two come together on a price and seal the deal. The notification process moves backward along the line and your broker gets back to you with the final price. You receive the confirmation notice in the mail after a few days.

For the individual investor, you frequently can get almost instant confirmations on your trades, if that is important to you. It also facilitates further control of online investing by putting you one step closer to the market.

Beginners should avoid complicating things trying to get rich in a day by venturing into every nook and cranny without knowing a thing or two about them. There are many types of trading like day trading, swing trading, futures and so on. Instead of trying to do a little bit of everything, it is profitable to concentrate on a single type that is simple to understand for you.
To begin with, you need a broker to handle your trades – individuals don’t have access to the electronic markets. Your broker accesses the exchange network and the system finds a buyer or seller depending on your order. Choose the right broker rationally. This is a crucial point of money making from stocks.

You then need to anticipate the behavior of prices of stocks. Price is the immediate cost of a share and potential source of profits. And this price behavior is so dicey that it keeps everybody in the game quite excited. This is what generates the profits or losses that are made by investing in this market.

Don’t worry if you find it very difficult to infer the price, because it really is difficult. It is frequently seen to be irregularly moving all along the day. Yet there are patterns to be figured out and expectations work quite often.

Depend on your comprehension and your broker, who must be a professional. Never bypass understanding fully the cause(s) behind a bad result when it occurs. Learn from your experiences, document them, and keep reading them once in a while.
 
Thanks for all your reply's guys, I take onboard and appreciate all the advice, It seems like i need to go back to the drawing board and develop a stratergy and then test it before committing serious money. That however is probably not the conclusion i wanted, thanks again and good luck
 
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