How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

okay here is my statement for Friday june 4,2010. (as you can see I paid $716.3 just for comm and fees)
I end up making a bit more because I saw huge price movement in gold rally and emini sp sell off and scalp on it real quick. I think it was around 1pm CT.
so i net only around +5800 for this week. the whole week I was trading I made profit only on Friday, because I was making up the tuesday losses on wed and thursday.
I think it's decent income for busy student like me who is taking summer class. I took part of the profit today as you can see in the cash amount of $3k.

yes i do average down . I am not sure if that is called position sizing or something.
I go against the trend most of the time. why do i average ? because I believe my entry is not perfect so I average it and if I'm wrong I will take 1 or 2 tick profit or break even sometimes. the worst case scenario is when I have huge drawdown. but as long as I trade early in the day, somehow the price bounce back to my 1 or 2 tick or Break even. how do i know this ?? Experience from 2 yrs losses!! what indicator to use for this ? I use pivot point.

thats few of my secret.

the weird thing about the way I trade is I can consistently make huge return even w/ huge losses I can make it back in a short period of time. the other weird thing is I break all conventional rule about averaging down (never add to losing position and I never did put any stop order at all)but still make money.
e.g. if you see my trade today and past 2 days, it was all winner I did not loss even 1 time. I am still amazed but at the same time cautious about the drawdown. I am less aggressive to avg down during certain time (options expiration,important announcement,etc).

any critics or questions are welcomed. I dont mind b/c im not perfect

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Just out of interest - what are the margin requirements of your broker - you seem to be able to build up a fairly large position considering the account size.

I use amp futures. I traded 3 different futures (oil,emini sp500, Gold).
Margins
Gold margin = $1,000/contract
oil margin= $2,000/ contract
emini sp500 = $400/contract but for me it is $1000/contract (I had huge drawdown during option expiration last May and my broker decided to increase my margin).

good question & in fact I did not know that my margin was $1000/contract (my broker told me that they would reset my margin on that May if I start using stop,but i never did) and TODAY, I had around $6k drawdown on my emini sp futures before stock market open. I tried to average down w/more contract but I cannot I already maxed out 20-22 contracts. and my balance was down to $20,000 = 1000 margin/contract *20 contracts.
I was down about 4 points, but market was already sell off at that time and I have to wait for couple minutes until market open and then I scalp 2 ticks. of course I was panic but according to the pivot point, other indicator and my experience( usually market will go back up fill my order to give chance to a trader who play after the market open).

IF I could average down more w. that $400/contract on mini SP, I would be netting more than $5900 today.

so i was basically using lots of buying power and sometimes I end up maxing out my buying power (specifically on May options expiration date when my emini margin was changed from $400 to $1,000).
I know I am not perfect its very high risk but v high return as well.
However, no matter what, my balance would not be negative because my drawdown is always less than my entire balance. (my highest drawdown was around slightly more than $10,000 during May option expiration week). Again my entire balance was able to withstand this drawdown because I have more than $25k.

of course in the beginning I cannot do this, because I start out w/ $8,300, but slowly I increase my buying power until my balance was up more than 20k.

so what do we learn from this ? be careful trading during option expiration week. (market can stay irrational longer than you think).

that's another secret of mine on when not to trade.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

nope i use amp.so far im pretty satisfied except when they increase my margin last month from $400 to $1k for mini sp500

Ah, Dorman Trading. Trading with Oscar, then?

 

[pboyles]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

(never add to losing position and I never did put any stop order at all)but still make money.

Maybe I misread this, are you saying you never use a stoploss?

 

[Vaco]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I have to side with Rath on this one, this stratagy will blow your account sooner or later. If i were you take some money out and keep it to one side so that you can start again when that happens.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

never use stop loss order ever since May 2010!! (I only use mental stop).
I did use stoploss before and keep losing.it just doesnt work for me. its like the market maker try to chase my stop. (thats the reason my broker increase my margin!) . did u read all my posts?

so i average down and get better entry instead of putting stop. I am breaking conventional rules all the time regarding stop loss and avg down !!

Thats why IF YOU see my broker statement , my quantity trades similar to position sizing like Dionysus said!
Im scalping a lot during the day thats why my comm and fees are high

 

[pboyles]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

never use stop loss order ever since May 2010!! (I only use mental stop).
I did use stoploss before and keep losing.it just doesnt work for me. its like the market maker try to chase my stop. (thats the reason my broker increase my margin!) . did u read all my posts?

so i average down and get better entry instead of putting stop. I am breaking conventional rules all the time regarding stop loss and avg down !!

Thats why IF YOU see my broker statement , my quantity trades similar to position sizing like Dionysus said!
Im scalping a lot during the day thats why my comm and fees are high

You should read the thread by Medbs called 100% holy Grail. He traded without stops and went into over 100% drawdown waiting for longs on eurusd and gbpusd to come back.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I did take out my profit if you see all my statements! I cash out 25k for May out of my net profit of $42k.

Additionaly, for this first week of June, I cash out 3k out of my net profit $5800.

I keep the rest for withstanding drawdown & keep my buying power high as possible.

so on may I start out with ~8300 and now i already took out total of $28k, which is more than my starting capital on May.

now my trading balance is around 28K. which I think is enough to withstand my drawdown. but of course i will increase my balance as I keep winning more.

gees I cannot believe you did not read!! Did u see my real trading broker statement ??

I have to side with Rath on this one, this stratagy will blow your account sooner or later. If i were you take some money out and keep it to one side so that you can start again when that happens.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

in other words, I took out 58% of my profit already!! to pay my bills etc.
Here is the calculation
(25+3)k cashing out profit/ (42+5.7)K total net profit so far = 58%

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

thanks for your concern. did Medbs daytrade and close his position all day like me???

dont tell me he is swing cause im daytrader and close my position 99% most of the time.

so to avoid this, I put more money into my balance. I know how much i will drawdown and use mental stop. (I never put my account into negative in my previous 2yrs of trading losses).

furthermore I still have big net profit just in case I need additional funding.

You should read the thread by Medbs called 100% holy Grail. He traded without stops and went into over 100% drawdown waiting for longs on eurusd and gbpusd to come back.

 

[pboyles]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

thanks for your concern. did Medbs daytrade and close his position all day like me???

dont tell me he is swing cause im daytrader and close my position 99% most of the time.

He closed them if they were winning and held on if they were losing. Are you saying that you will close all open positions at the end of the day if they losing? Thats not the same as trading with no stops.

By the way it seems you are paying about $5 per round trip on the e mini S&P, thats rather a lot, should be more like $3, you should look elsewhere and see what you can get it for, especially if you are trading quite a lot. Try Global or Velocity or even ask Amp for a better deal.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

exactly!

I think what the other poster mean, is putting a visible fixed stop loss order, which i did not do it. however I do mental stop depending on my balance and other possibilities.
so yea i do trade with discretionary stop not w/ visible stop.

Most of the time I dont have enough margin to carry it overnight. (true for emini sp)
so my broker will offset my position automatically before end of the day.

but for the oil and gold market somehow my broker a little flex I can carry few contracts overnight (depending on how much my balance is) even with unsifficient margin. I'm not sure why, but usually if I do this, I'm confident that market will fill my target because its already oversold/overbought. (which is not v often, maybe once or twice in a month).

I dont like holding overnight unless i am confident it will break even or slight profit.

thank you for the commission advice, I'll look into it.

He closed them if they were winning and held on if they were losing. Are you saying that you will close all open positions at the end of the day if they losing? Thats not the same as trading with no stops.

By the way it seems you are paying about $5 per round trip on the e mini S&P, thats rather a lot, should be more like $3, you should look elsewhere and see what you can get it for, especially if you are trading quite a lot. Try Global or Velocity or even ask Amp for a better deal.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

i posted all my statements so far check it out

Im all ears.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I'm just updating my trade today.I will post my statement tonight for today's trade.
I just finished my trade before at 10 PM central time. I didnt trade on monday yesterday as I had my midterm.
note: I took out some of my profit u can see it in cash check section on my statement. today I made 5k before comm and fees.

I made a good start by shorting gold at around 1250 before market open.
then I stupidly buy it back around 1247 and have 2-3k drawdown cause I wasnt patient enough.
but I managed to average down and get 1 tick profit . Gold just shooting higher eventually but I was nervous holding 17 contracts.

I made v little trade on oil. so its not worth mentioning.
the other trade was on mini SP. I was avg down a lot. cause I was slightly greedy and want to make quick bucks. of course i make money as always but i was not expecting the market to sell off that much.

the moral of the story was avg down not can only be used to make money but also can be used to get out of losing position to a break even or 1/2 tick profit.

I know most people are afraid of avg down. but at least i am the succesful example
again any critics or advise are welcomed. keep learning guys!

 

[Vaco]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Unless you post up some rules for entry and re-entry there is not much to learn.

How do u choose to buy/sell

At which point do u decide to add to a losing position

How do you decide when to exit.

Unless of course its all edge of your seat on the fly.

 

[pboyles]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I'm just updating my trade today.I will post my statement tonight for today's trade.
I just finished my trade before at 10 PM central time. I didnt trade on monday yesterday as I had my midterm.
note: I took out some of my profit u can see it in cash check section on my statement. today I made 5k before comm and fees.

I made a good start by shorting gold at around 1250 before market open.
then I stupidly buy it back around 1247 and have 2-3k drawdown cause I wasnt patient enough.
but I managed to average down and get 1 tick profit . Gold just shooting higher eventually but I was nervous holding 17 contracts.

I made v little trade on oil. so its not worth mentioning.
the other trade was on mini SP. I was avg down a lot. cause I was slightly greedy and want to make quick bucks. of course i make money as always but i was not expecting the market to sell off that much.

the moral of the story was avg down not can only be used to make money but also can be used to get out of losing position to a break even or 1/2 tick profit.

I know most people are afraid of avg down. but at least i am the succesful example
again any critics or advise are welcomed. keep learning guys!

What was your mini SP trade, long/short from what level?

 

[salvadorveiga]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I'm just updating my trade today.I will post my statement tonight for today's trade.
I just finished my trade before at 10 PM central time. I didnt trade on monday yesterday as I had my midterm.
note: I took out some of my profit u can see it in cash check section on my statement. today I made 5k before comm and fees.

I made a good start by shorting gold at around 1250 before market open.
then I stupidly buy it back around 1247 and have 2-3k drawdown cause I wasnt patient enough.
but I managed to average down and get 1 tick profit . Gold just shooting higher eventually but I was nervous holding 17 contracts.

I made v little trade on oil. so its not worth mentioning.
the other trade was on mini SP. I was avg down a lot. cause I was slightly greedy and want to make quick bucks. of course i make money as always but i was not expecting the market to sell off that much.

the moral of the story was avg down not can only be used to make money but also can be used to get out of losing position to a break even or 1/2 tick profit.

I know most people are afraid of avg down. but at least i am the succesful example
again any critics or advise are welcomed. keep learning guys!

this is typical of people who average down... they aveerage down so the average price is closer to current price and they can get out at a small losing, or break-even or little profit...

sorry but sooner or later it goes kaboooom... "your" method of averaging down is nothing new.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

heard similar comments before. LOL

I agreed. that will be kabooom for newbie trader who doesnt know when they should avg down and when not to.
if u see my May statement on the week when there is Third Friday, it is one of the time when I should not avg down often and too much. cause I had one day losing trade b/c of avg down. in other time and situation it works. u just have to be careful.

what separates me from the rest of avg down trader is I know when not to.

thanks for posting.

this is typical of people who average down... they aveerage down so the average price is closer to current price and they can get out at a small losing, or break-even or little profit...

sorry but sooner or later it goes kaboooom... "your" method of averaging down is nothing new.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

u should check out my statement tonite so u can analyze. its still trading time now so i wont get it till 10pm CT.

I dont really remember. but I think I was long 1049 and 1045.75. get out at 1050.25 and 1046.75 or 1047. but again i was avg down so it was not my original entry.
my entry is dynamic b/c i avg the price.

on emini sp, I only took out 2 or 3 tick profit for each trade no more than that b/c i was against the trend.
I was building long position & the price keep dropping so i avg it to the downside.
so actually I was wrong and try to get out of the trade. this is one of the example of how to get out of bad position using avg down.

when u have lots of time left to trade, the probability is much higher that u will get filled using avg down.

What was your mini SP trade, long/short from what level?

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

my entry is dynamic. and it depending on the time as well (before and after the market is open). I monitor upcoming news also. whether it is before or after the news. if there is no news then i dont use it.
I also watch overnight price movement (doesnt mean I wake up at night, I just look at it in the morning before I trade). price sometimes hit that night level again in the morning to give chance to other trader.

and I always look at previous OHLC and plot it into pivot point.
additionally i use Gann number to decide.

the easiest entry is when the price is severely extended. how extended ? sorry its my secret. cant tell you more detail about this.

furthermore, I use time, which most ppl doesnt really use. I watch central time whenever I trade . e.g. for example around 12 or 1 o clock, there is usualy a reversal. but this is also depending on how far the price is already extended.

(this is one of my secret so cant tell u more detail)

with all of this above, its still pretty hard to win. However, combined w/ avg down technique, I've been a succesful day trader.

so when im wrong, I look for BE or few tick profit (usually 1,2,3 ticks).
when I am right, usually I dont really average or v little. I let the price fill my target.

I also use other indicator like candlestick and paid indicator. ( it's T123 Trend Indicator for ninja)
I also look at time and sales.

but what really saves me from my bad trade is actually my avg down technique combined w/all of the above.

good question u almost reveal all my secret.:clap:

Unless you post up some rules for entry and re-entry there is not much to learn.

How do u choose to buy/sell

At which point do u decide to add to a losing position

How do you decide when to exit.

Unless of course its all edge of your seat on the fly.