How to make 100%

[FX Bandit]

Excellent post.. I would go a little further and say that no one strategy is universally better than any other, which is why each trader needs to find the system best suited to them, in terms or % win rate, drawdown, risk per trade, frequency of trades, Sharpe ratio and so on.

I doubt anyone is really paying attention though.

Show me how to make 100% in a month!!!! (or was it in a week, I forget)

A day probably.

 

[tomorton]

My thoughts exactly.

I'm very keen to see where this ends up and the points re risk are completely useless - Risk is personal, work out your own risk and leave 4x to do what he wants. The rest of the strategy is what you should be interested in.

No, risk is not personal in the final analysis, and by final analysis I mean risk of being wiped out. I mean that it is not OK for a person to say, you can walk a tight rope just like me without a net and risk getting killed but it's OK because I don't mind personally getting killed. The point of trading is to survive: any strategy that puts this in imminent (single trade) jeopardy is inherently too risky to be seriously considered.

 

[forker]

just thought i would share something...

no words needed

 

[LiamH]

No, risk is not personal in the final analysis, and by final analysis I mean risk of being wiped out. I mean that it is not OK for a person to say, you can walk a tight rope just like me without a net and risk getting killed but it's OK because I don't mind personally getting killed. The point of trading is to survive: any strategy that puts this in imminent (single trade) jeopardy is inherently too risky to be seriously considered.

Look, he has said he uses no stops and so his exits for a loss are discretionary. End of story. Get over it.

His risk appetite may not be any good for most (including me) but it's up to him how he manages his account and not anyone else.

I'm interested in the rest. If you're not then don't open the thread. Simple.

 

[Splitlink]

No, risk is not personal in the final analysis, and by final analysis I mean risk of being wiped out. I mean that it is not OK for a person to say, you can walk a tight rope just like me without a net and risk getting killed but it's OK because I don't mind personally getting killed. The point of trading is to survive: any strategy that puts this in imminent (single trade) jeopardy is inherently too risky to be seriously considered.

I think that it is personal, provided that you know that it exists. 4x's safety net is his business, just so long as he spells those risks out beforehand. If he is unable to see those risks for himself then others should point them out clearly for the rest to see.

That has not been what has been happening here, though. I am unlikely to follow 4x's line of thought because I find it difficult to understand. What has got me going here are the uneducated posts that have taken up a large part of this thread and which have been very unfair and a waste of space.

 

[roughbert]

I'm trying to follow the application of SD here. is 4x talking about deviations from the mean of the last n periods price? or deviations from a MA like Bollinger bands?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Call it what you want. It works, and I stated nothing but facts.
Also, no assumptions, just facts.
Concerning portfolio managers, just facts.
I know many of them from Chicago. Just facts.
I posted one concerning the EUR/AUD. That is also just facts.
Opnion polls are not needed, cause it works. Just facts
I'm laughing at your ignorance of what my nuggets are really all about. Just facts.

Please, if anyone has something constructive to add, I am 100% willing to address it. I adressed this comment, but it is really just time consuming, which is not what this is all about.

4xpip, all I have to say is that all this "nugget" stuff about probability sounds horrendously silly...

Mainly because it's a well-known empirical fact that mkt price distributions are leptokurtic, i.e. exhibit distributions with fat tails (pls let me know if you want references). That's one of the reason options are priced the way the are. Your blithe assumptions about standard deviations etc are at best naive and, at worst, plain wrong. Your description of what stock portfolio managers do is laughable.

At any rate, all this doesn't matter, if your methodology produces a good Sharpe ratio. Will you be posting actual trades?

 

[4xpipcounter]

I have covered the way I margin in great detail. It is not needed to go back over it.
Paradoxical to me, a lot of you guys are worried about me losing money, and I'm ready to ride off into the sunset.

I am up to this post on my repsonses, and this is the last one I read to thsi point. I'm hoping there is somethingworth responding to. If not, I may be riding quicker than I think.

I think 4x has stated, vigorously and repeatedly, that he doesn't use stops. Rather paradoxically (to me), it's 'cause he doesn't like losing money.

 

[4xpipcounter]

If you read everything that subverted this thread, you would know
100%? Excuuuse me! I got one losing trading in the last 5 weeks.
I can't be wiped out. I'm getting ready to ride off in the sunset.

You guys only need to concern yourself with how you margin. Not how I do.


[/B]

I took that (perhaps wrongly) that he doesn't use hard stops. Does that mean that it would only take one trade to go wrong for him to be wiped out or is there a point at which he will close a bad trade? Perhaps he can comment. Is it a 100% winning strategy, the true holy grail?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Trendie, excellent!!!

Folks, this is why his name is Trendie. If you trend (Get it?) his way, you'll spend less time worrying about me (which is none of your business), and more time building yuor own account (which should be all of your business).

Trendie, this is why I stopped answering their questions. You know the answer just like they do.

4x has already said that he risks 10% on a trade. That 10% represents 100 pips.
So, a 1000 pip move would be an account killer.
BUT, he has a separate cash fund, which he would add to his trading account to bail that loser out.

This is my understanding.

So, you would need to see an aggregate account going 1000 pips offside before calling 4x out on this.
I am still less concerned about fixating about riding out losers (because I am a sentient being and can decide for myself that I can CHOOSE to take a loss), and more interested in how he triggers a trade in the first place. If this reversion-to-mean has legs, taking the occasional hit is small price to pay for something that works.

Anyway, you might also decide to only trade 5% per trade!
I want to see how a trade is triggered. backtest it. Add my own risk analysis. Define my own variant. But, to start with, I need to see something that is nett positive "on my terms".

4x should spend less time answering the same question over and over again, and get to the entry-methods!

 

[FX Bandit]

...and I'm ready to ride off into the sunset.

I am up to this post on my repsonses, and this is the last one I read to thsi point. I'm hoping there is somethingworth responding to. If not, I may be riding quicker than I think.

I'll fetch your horse for you.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Maybe we can keep the perversion out of my thread.

The nuggets are designed to give information and ideas. You glean from that what is best for you.

Here's an idea! Post the EUR/AUD as a short on your demo account with 10% margining--1 lot per $10,000 in the account. I'll let you know when to close the trade. That's like Albert Pujols pinch-hitting for you in a Little League game.

I sure hope so... That's why I keep asking for actual trades. The "nuggets" make no sense to me, but I would happily adopt 4x's strategy if it's effective. However, to me, effectiveness has to be demonstrated first, before I am ready to wade through the "nuggets". To establish if these are true golden nuggets, Chicken McNuggets or creamy butt nuggets, so to speak.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nugget 10-- Quick thought on deviations

Dude, rate the thread a "1" and get out of my classroom. You're flunking the class, anyway.

4x, do you have any educational background in statistics (beyond the age of 17)?

Have you carried out backtesting and/or Monte Carlo simulations to test your hypothesis?

Care to answer the question about how much of your account you risk per trade?

 

[4xpipcounter]

That's exactly the point. This thread is supposed to be information filled. I share the nuggets as it has benefitted me. Convert those into your own thoguht and tidbits, and they will benefit you. Margining is not important, as long as it works for the individual.

Many are stilll too busy trying to impose their views on me and everyone else, and it is not going to work.


[/B]

My thoughts exactly.

I'm very keen to see where this ends up and the points re risk are completely useless - Risk is personal, work out your own risk and leave 4x to do what he wants. The rest of the strategy is what you should be interested in.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Splitlink, it is going to take past Christmas to cover everything.

Just for the record, this is what I do for a living. I do not moonlight. I'm 54 years old, and I am ready to ride off in the sunset. I would like to complete this thread before I do.

For people like you is what this thread is all about. I hope you glean your portion so as to gain more in your trading.

Let me exaplin the standard deviation in a nutshell. When price hits +2 or 3, enter a short if momentum is DOWN. When price hits -2 or 3, enter a long when momentum is UP.

In ichimoku, when the cloud is fresh, and price is approaching it, reverse direction

How much of the new "nuggets" thread have you read? It's heavy going for me, I admit. Maybe less so for others, but now that it has been separated from a very tedious thread (and I'm not blaming 4x for the tedium) I intend to withhold my opinion until I finish it---even if it does take me 'til Christmas!

Whatever he does for living is not my concern. Whether I can get some ideas out of his thread is.
I suggest others take the same view. Read him or leave him alone.

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL. Bandit, the only reason I like you being around is you leave me cracking up. Tucker is right here assisting me in all these responses. He says, "rrf rrf."

Now, if you are not getting your portion of the nuggets, then it is your fault. If you don't understand, that is okay. But if you don' understand, then don't ask questions, that is your fault.

Now, let me address everyone else to show your comment makes no sense. THOSE ARE MY NUGGETS!!!!!!! I know I'm loaded. But, I'm still not going to throw $135 per month away for nothing on E-Signal. I'm not going to waste my time posting for nothing. Duuuhhh. A little common sense, please.

I still like your one-liners. You're not getting very good grades in Advanced Trading 101, so far, but you do add some lightness and high-spiritness to the classroom. In your acknowledgement of m'boy, Tucker, you do get some extra credit, so I'll raise your grade to a "D".


[/B]

Split, I'm sorry to hear that you're chasing after 4Xpip, scooping up his "nuggets". Trust me, there's not even edible bits of sweetcorn you can pick out of these nuggets.

How do you know that they're even his "nuggets". Aside from the fact that he almost certainly doesn't exist, it could be Tucker leaving these nuggets you're trying to chew on.

 

[4xpipcounter]

You're right. You can laugh at Bandit, but you sure can't trust him.

I don't know anything about him, only that he is writing them and I'm reading them, regardless of what you think.

Trust you? Come on, man!

 

[FX Bandit]

LOL. Bandit, the only reason I like you being around is you leave me cracking up. Tucker is right here assisting me in all these responses. He says, "rrf rrf."

Now, if you are not getting your portion of the nuggets, then it is your fault. If you don't understand, that is okay. But if you don' understand, then don't ask questions, that is your fault.

Now, let me address everyone else to show your comment makes no sense. THOSE ARE MY NUGGETS!!!!!!! I know I'm loaded. But, I'm still not going to throw $135 per month away for nothing on E-Signal. I'm not going to waste my time posting for nothing. Duuuhhh. A little common sense, please.

I still like your one-liners. You're not getting very good grades in Advanced Trading 101, so far, but you do add some lightness and high-spiritness to the classroom. In your acknowledgement of m'boy, Tucker, you do get some extra credit, so I'll raise your grade to a "D".


[/B]

LOL I've got my method thank you, and it certainly doesn't involve any "proprietary S&R" levels or clouds blowing across my charts. I'm old-fashioned - I like my S&R to be visible to everyone, even better if they're drawn by someone else (like the market).

You've got to understand that what you're trying has been done umpteen times, and it's very rare that unsuspecting noobs don't end up with lighter pockets before the nugget-distributor rolls out of town. Either that or some disgruntled ex-member is doing it for laughs. I just had you down for the former category because of the amount of effort you're putting in.

Maybe you're not one of either, obviously I don't know; there's certainly plenty of people hoping you're not. Me? I'm still holding this horse for you. But I suspect you need T2W more than it needs you, so I expect you'll stay in the Saloon spinning your stories for a while yet.

 

[Martinghoul]

Call it what you want. It works, and I stated nothing but facts.
Also, no assumptions, just facts.
Concerning portfolio managers, just facts.
I know many of them from Chicago. Just facts.
I posted one concerning the EUR/AUD. That is also just facts.
Opnion polls are not needed, cause it works. Just facts
I'm laughing at your ignorance of what my nuggets are really all about. Just facts.

Please, if anyone has something constructive to add, I am 100% willing to address it. I adressed this comment, but it is really just time consuming, which is not what this is all about.

4x, now you're getting rather delusional... I am not trying to be hostile, but you have to deliver on your promises.

This will be my last response to you, at least until you start posting actual trades. Reason being is that, so far, you have stated absolutely nothing factual. Everything is a claim of yours, an exercise in data-mining or a demonstrably false statement. We don't have to argue about that, since we will never agree. Hence, I keep asking you to actually start posting trades. You keep offering nuggets, which, to me, are obviously worthless without proof that your approach works. So my challenge to you is, basically, "put up or shut up". Obviously, I don't mean that you should shut up, but I, for one, will stop listening unless there's something tangible.

 

[4xpipcounter]

MR, you amaze me. I'm being serious. I have to put up with many of your nonsense posts, and then you post something that makes total sense.

That is one of the main points I'm trying to make. Even my nuggets must be intuitive. The trader must use and develop his own methodology. The methodological approach and margin management are all personal. The nuggets are designed to help the trader to realize when a trend or a correction has, more or less, hits it limit, then jump in and maximize the gains.

I make 100% per month quite consistently. 100% per week is the exception.

If no one is really paying attention, then I quit. I don't think that is the case which is why I am continuing.

When I made the threat, then got hammered by e-mails, a couple of PM's, and the few posts in here, it told me there are a few paying attention. That is why I stuck around.

Here's a margin nugget for everyone. I said I would avoid it, but this is information that has not been covered:

It is all stereotypes as far as risk per trade, Sharpe ratios, etc are concerned. The EUR/AUD (S) I am in is a very low risk trade, because of the TA's involved-- Close to sigma +3, under the daily cloud, the trend's range stretched to the max, etc. That's my version of low risk. Also, I can afford high DD, just in case it does happen. I have more than 100% of my equity lurking in the background ready to back me up. I have a high-risk tolerance, which is not needed most of the time. And I have ice in my veins.

MR, if you use the Sharpe ratio, that's fine. I'm not knocking it, because it is personal. Get your portion of the nuggets, and you willm kae your 100% per month.

But, you're right, "no one strategy is universally better than any other". This is because it is up to the inidividual in running that strategy. We're diverse. Admittedly, I'm diverse from most. My methodology has netted me 36 consecutive winning months. Mine would probably net you 36 the opposite. I guess you do well with yours. I couldn't using yours. It's that simple

Excellent post.. I would go a little further and say that no one strategy is universally better than any other, which is why each trader needs to find the system best suited to them, in terms or % win rate, drawdown, risk per trade, frequency of trades, Sharpe ratio and so on.

I doubt anyone is really paying attention though.

Show me how to make 100% in a month!!!! (or was it in a week, I forget)