scose-no-doubt
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w/e
How markets operate.
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Rhody Trader
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Generally speaking, a 10yr Note is not considered a money-equivalent. For that you need something which is much closer to overnight - something where there's little or no principal risk in the short-term.
If, however, you're looking at a long-term valuation (discounted cashflows, for example) then the 10yr rate may be a benchmark.
Rhody Trader
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Well, at least the lower perceived risk anyway.
cheers, tbh when i saw what was coming up for cost of equity i knew it was pretty much a pointless measure of risk or demand for equity financing(esp. at the moment). i think the problem is linking it to treasuries and using beta as measure of risk. Its a completely fictitious cost anyway.
any ideas about the movements between rates and currencies then? it seemed like recently and in some cases, whenever bond prices were rising the currency related to the bond was falling. i.e us govt bonds rising in price with the $ falling. i mean is there any useful info behind this relating to money flows?
any ideas about the movements between rates and currencies then? it seemed like recently and in some cases, whenever bond prices were rising the currency related to the bond was falling. i.e us govt bonds rising in price with the $ falling. i mean is there any useful info behind this relating to money flows?
arabianights
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Aaron, you may be interested by Soros's concept of reflexivity... he talks about this in semi-philisophical tone.
robster970
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He's just talking about why value traders exist isn't he? Or am I missing something else here
arabianights
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I think he's getting at how market price movements can effect the fundamentals themselves...
is that were the cause/effect are actually intertwined in one circle...say the fundamentals of the US economy are strong, so the dollar has 'strong fundamentals' but if people want to short the dollar then this in some way could affect the us' fundamentals, probably a bad example but i read through it once a while ago so may be a bit rusty
i think another example was in the conglomerates, if the equity price was rising this would allow the company to use the stock as currency to make per share earnings grow, which made the price go higher allowing more acquisitions. the ultimate point though being that the acquisitions didn't add value, just grew EPS. so the rising share price caused a rising share price.
another one was the rise in the $ up to Plaza, if i remember right, he said that depsite the twin deficits and the interest rate, the $ went up because the capital appreication was more than what was lost through interest rates. so the rising exchange rate caused the rising exchange rate.
good book. i don't understand how repo would affect it tho, apart from the hypothecation stuff.
another one was the rise in the $ up to Plaza, if i remember right, he said that depsite the twin deficits and the interest rate, the $ went up because the capital appreication was more than what was lost through interest rates. so the rising exchange rate caused the rising exchange rate.
good book. i don't understand how repo would affect it tho, apart from the hypothecation stuff.
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Rhody Trader
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Actually, it varies. If you look at the dollar risk aversion trade you'll observe that Treasury prices have generally been up along with the dollar rise. Investors flow into the dollar and into Treasuries.
scose-no-doubt
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who's Aaron? saw a speech on it and am looking for the paper. Feedback loop idea was interesting.
arabianights
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lol stop being a bender... everyone know (REMOVED CAUSE OF BLACKMAIL) came back as (REMOVED CAUSE OF BLACKMAIL), anyone can spot a silly citybulls sock (they've been lurking in my chatroom, probably disgusted it's been much more succesful within months than their paranoid forum of nonsense has been after five years, although maybe I can get more traffic there now since I'm going to argue with their hilarious nonsense about WASP: The URL is http://citybulls.proboards.com/ and the owners (one of whom, if no one knows, is SOCRATES albeit Albert Lebos), whatever falts they may have, do have a genuine sense of integrity - I consider them to be delusional about reality but I believe them to be 100% honest and decent within what they believe is the truth - and so I should imagine they won't ban anyone just because they came from what they call "the zoo"), everyone noticed a couple of other socks I'll be a bit more subtle about...
oh yeah everyone knows who you came back as...
Those who didn't... you're just drawing their attention
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scose-no-doubt
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lol stop being a bender... everyone know (REMOVED CAUSE OF BLACKMAIL) came back as (REMOVED CAUSE OF BLACKMAIL), anyone can spot a silly citybulls sock (they've been lurking in my chatroom, probably disgusted it's been much more succesful within months than their paranoid forum of nonsense has been after five years, although maybe I can get more traffic there now since I'm going to argue with their hilarious nonsense about WASP: The URL is http://citybulls.proboards.com/ and the owners (one of whom, if no one knows, is SOCRATES albeit Albert Lebos), whatever falts they may have, do have a genuine sense of integrity - I consider them to be delusional about reality but I believe them to be 100% honest and decent within what they believe is the truth - and so I should imagine they won't ban anyone just because they came from what they call "the zoo"), everyone noticed a couple of other socks I'll be a bit more subtle about...
oh yeah everyone knows who you came back as...
Those who didn't... you're just drawing their attention
drunken incoherent ramblings
Chr!st I am totally confused about who is what and all.
anyway, Scose (or whoever you are), a bit of background reading could be "intermarket analysis" by John Murphy or whatever Ashraf Laidi's book is (havent read it, heard it was average).
the forces behind these types of move change... Oil is a good example that most people can remember.. when it was $120+, oil went up and stocks went down, but after it crashed oil went up and stocks went up. Both made sense at the time.
anyway, Scose (or whoever you are), a bit of background reading could be "intermarket analysis" by John Murphy or whatever Ashraf Laidi's book is (havent read it, heard it was average).
the forces behind these types of move change... Oil is a good example that most people can remember.. when it was $120+, oil went up and stocks went down, but after it crashed oil went up and stocks went up. Both made sense at the time.
scose-no-doubt
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yeh i have john murphy but never got around to finishing it. Might have another look at it now I know a bit more.
arabianights
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I think given the time it is I'm unlikely to make it in to work tomorrow, which is a shame given the notional value of my posistion is roughly quarter of a billion quid.
OH WELL
BETTER SOBER UP SHORTLY
OH WELL
BETTER SOBER UP SHORTLY
scose-no-doubt
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Can't anyone just stay on topic in a thread?
Just more and more ridiculous nonsense.
Just more and more ridiculous nonsense.
