how do you exity a trade?

[Black Swan]

Will anyone ever perfect their exit strat? I doubt it...

 

[oildaytrader]

All indicators are lagging indicators as they are based on past data
If you want a predictive indicator use fibs tied up with price action.

Whats wrong with random percentages?Why not use 30,50,70?

What statistical evidence ,if any,is there to prove fib works?I guess none.

In a bull market 85 % might work better than fib or whatever that is called, in a bear market 15 % might work.

If human beings can't fortell the future , how can they write indicators which are predictive?

I am not here to agree with you guys, 95 % club do agree with the indicator and fib garbage.

O D T

 

[oildaytrader]

I am showing you guys how stupid manual exits can be.

I normally exit at end of day and let the profits run until then.Today I saw support on euro chart and manually exited all my trades at 10 am.Although I made 300 pips profit,I cut my profits by 600 pips by closing at 10 a m.

We are not always able to look at charts and predict take profit targets using any gimmick.

 

[gamma]

Whats wrong with random percentages?Why not use 30,50,70?

What statistical evidence ,if any,is there to prove fib works?I guess none.

In a bull market 85 % might work better than fib or whatever that is called, in a bear market 15 % might work.

If human beings can't fortell the future , how can they write indicators which are predictive?

I am not here to agree with you guys, 95 % club do agree with the indicator and fib garbage.

O D T

You misinterpret the whole point about fibs
The points it highlights are areas to watch for potential activity this is then used in conjuction with candledtick price action.
The scope of the post is not enough to go into a full explaination about fibs and why there is a greater potential for activity at 62.8 % or 50 % rather than 85% or 25%

 

[oildaytrader]

You misinterpret the whole point about fibs
The points it highlights are areas to watch for potential activity this is then used in conjuction with candledtick price action.
The scope of the post is not enough to go into a full explaination about fibs and why there is a greater potential for activity at 62.8 % or 50 % rather than 85% or 25%

The examples below show fib working on longer term .

http://www.tradejuice.com/fibonacci/intro-to-fibonacci-nh.htm

Why not use 30,50 and 70 and allow for **** in the wind on those numbers?Say exit 1 lot around 30% , next lot at 50% and final lot at 70 %?.Candles are also lagging or aren't they?

For day trading forex , some of the best mechanical exits are at end of day i.e around 20.00 hours.If the market wanted to make its move ,it would have done it by 20.00.

Stochastics is also a useful exit indicator , around the 30 , 50 and 70% move , and can be used in conjunction with end of day period.

 

[gamma]

The examples below show fib working on longer term .

http://www.tradejuice.com/fibonacci/intro-to-fibonacci-nh.htm

Why not use 30,50 and 70 and allow for **** in the wind on those numbers?Say exit 1 lot around 30% , next lot at 50% and final lot at 70 %?.Candles are also lagging or aren't they?

For day trading forex , some of the best mechanical exits are at end of day i.e around 20.00 hours.If the market wanted to make its move ,it would have done it by 20.00.

Stochastics is also a useful exit indicator , around the 30 , 50 and 70% move , and can be used in conjunction with end of day period.

Valid points there oildaytrader which I could'nt disagreee with.
As a casing point I am currently interested in the price action around 16060 which is the 38% pullback fib of the cable price action of 16244 high to recent low of 15944.
I am interested in the hourly action to see if it sits comfortably above or below this price.

 

[gamma]

As per my earlier post
here is a point where stochastics are useful
the rsi on the 5 and 15 minute are turning up
if it breaks past the pevious 15 minute high its time to exit with a 50 point gain
some might prefer a 5 min time frame.
Usually around this time 11 am there is a counter trend

 

[The Artist]

As per my earlier post
here is a point where stochastics are useful
the rsi on the 5 and 15 minute are turning up
if it breaks past the pevious 15 minute high its time to exit with a 50 point gain
some might prefer a 5 min time frame.
Usually around this time 11 am there is a counter trend

Actually, speaking of RSI, another way to use it as a price target calculator is to look for Positive and Negative Reversals. It more suitable for daily or weekly charts from what Ive seen, but it gives specific price targets, to the tick. RSI fans who do not use this technique should look it up, it adds a different dimension.

 

[oildaytrader]

Actually, speaking of RSI, another way to use it as a price target calculator is to look for Positive and Negative Reversals. It more suitable for daily or weekly charts from what Ive seen, but it gives specific price targets, to the tick. RSI fans who do not use this technique should look it up, it adds a different dimension.

If the Gann and other gimmicks were aimed at a roulette wheel, couldn't heads or tails be easier?

If one got to any any levels , why not just wait for a reversal?

I am trying to learn the reasoning behind these gadgets .

 

[Splitlink]

Whats wrong with random percentages?Why not use 30,50,70?

What statistical evidence ,if any,is there to prove fib works?I guess none.

In a bull market 85 % might work better than fib or whatever that is called, in a bear market 15 % might work.

If human beings can't fortell the future , how can they write indicators which are predictive?

I am not here to agree with you guys, 95 % club do agree with the indicator and fib garbage.

O D T

Of course! Fibs are baloney, you can draw a line anywhere. I use the 5 point line quite often, it's surprising how often pullbacks go to one of those.

Or is it surprising, if you can draw a line anywhere?

 

[oildaytrader]

Of course! Fibs are baloney, you can draw a line anywhere. I use the 5 point line quite often, it's surprising how often pullbacks go to one of those.

Or is it surprising, if you can draw a line anywhere?

For targets do some statistical anylysis on previous trend lengthand daily average range and use it as your first target, apply 70 % as t/p to it.No two trends are same.

 

[Splitlink]

If the Gann and other gimmicks were aimed at a roulette wheel, couldn't heads or tails be easier?

If one got to any any levels , why not just wait for a reversal?

I am trying to learn the reasoning behind these gadgets .

What level?

 

[oildaytrader]

What level?

Any any = no specific level

 

[gamma]

Actually, speaking of RSI, another way to use it as a price target calculator is to look for Positive and Negative Reversals. It more suitable for daily or weekly charts from what Ive seen, but it gives specific price targets, to the tick. RSI fans who do not use this technique should look it up, it adds a different dimension.

Interesting post Artist,
Do you have a link or could you elaborate a bit more please

 

[hazelj80]

I exit based on price action because that's what the ea is designed to do. i loose too much with a hard stop loss. and trail stops would just be a band-aid on the way i trade. so it's strictly price. they have never worked well for me.

 

[The Artist]

Interesting post Artist,
Do you have a link or could you elaborate a bit more please

Yeah sure.. I just scribbled an example of a positive reversal (negative reversal is the opposite).
Contrary to positive divergence which is said to be more effective in a downtrend and indicate a reversal, a positive reversal happens mostly in an uptrend and indicates a continuation or resumption of the uptrend (i.e. NOT a reversal).
We focus on the relative position of the most recent pullback low compared to the previous pullback low, and their RSI equivalents; the price lows must form an uptrend while their RSI counterparts a downtrend. It shows price strength to the upside despite relatively bearish momentum.
Then the target is as follows, based on the attached pic:
Target = B + (C - A)

There you go,

 

[oildaytrader]

Targets should be based solely on positive expectancy of a system/method,taking profits should be based on positive expectancy of the system without waiting for any lagging and sometimes costly indicators or gimmicks.Thats the only way to end up being consistently profitable.Money management is the key to all trading.

http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/

 

[The Artist]

Targets should be based solely on positive expectancy of a system/method,taking profits should be based on positive expectancy of the system without waiting for any lagging and sometimes costly indicators or gimmicks.Thats the only way to end up being consistently profitable.Money management is the key to all trading.

http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/

In my trading profile, you will see Van Tharp listed among my favorite books, simply because things like trade expectancy or average excursion are some of the things that are paramount in my trading and define entry, exit, and risk.
Now, this is my choice, and apparently we are on the same page here.
I was not writing about "gadgets" and "gimmicks" before to tell people to use them, but because they exist and a trader must know about a technique before he can decide to use it or discard it imo.
Plus a completely discretionary trader who bases all of his trading decisions on TA may become highly successful by using just Fibonacci ratios or H&S. You cannot test those systems because the same person may one day trade a setup and the next day not trade the same exact setup. Therefore I don't think you can rely on backtested statistics like expectancy in this case because they become meaningless in the future. In this case then, knowing about various techniques could help you in the long run.
Anyways, discretionary, systematic, or both, as you said, money management is the key, I fully agree with that.
It's actually become the key to my life since I started dated my girlfriend.