tar
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Pat494
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Shifts in pricing is an interesting concept.
One may not get the fundamental reaction logic would dictate and the reason is often because the price has it already factored in and the reaction sets in to reverse it. Also profit taking or loss adjustments.
Really quite confusing imho
One may not get the fundamental reaction logic would dictate and the reason is often because the price has it already factored in and the reaction sets in to reverse it. Also profit taking or loss adjustments.
Really quite confusing imho
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Some time ago I was testing a news service – they were airing unconfirmed news as they were happening, much faster than big boys (15mins or more before the others). Something like 'the buildings are shaking in Tokyo', 'rokets fired over Tel Aviv' etc. and I could see reaction on the charts almost immediatelly. To me appeared as if the prices reacted faster than anything else – so I can't see how can one exploit delays at all? It seems as if the news are factored in within a split second?
Price will have already factored in the expected data. It hasn't however factored in unexpected data and this is where you get shifts in price driven by an unexpected number. A recent trade example is EUR\GBP 3rd of Jan where UK Manufacturing PMI was expected to be 53.3 with a previous of 53.6 and the actual was 56.1 which is a deviation and gives you an immediate opportunity to get into a shift in price that reacts to this deviation and this gave 40 pips.
On a long term timescale its a little different where you see the data deviate from price direction so in this situation you approximate your timing looking for price shifts to come into play over a longer period of time
Trading that sort of news is not something i suggest. Taking advantage of something more economically related such as last night when the PM spoke on TV about brexit has far more opportunity. But these sorts of events are rare and often difficult to get in because you need to be filtering real-time news for it (not tv news but headline news flash on a news terminal like Eikon)
They are far too fast. You need to know which are the strongest and weakest currencies as a first step to know which pair would give you the best opportunity. Once you know this you need to have planned out which economic news events are opportunities and when the data is released, if it is a deviation, you need to have your finger on the trigger when your terminal releases the data. By the time i type something on here i would have already been in the trade and probably in profit by some margin. It is not in my interest to do this because frankly it is of no benefit to me. The concept is simple but the work to get to a decision is a lot. I spend most of my time reading and summarising central bank statements and speeches, doing back research on historical economic data, reading analyst analysis, looking at various news on the news terminal (a lot of it you wont get on standard news including the likes of CNBC or Bloomberg - [i can't speak of their terminal])
darktone
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Busy atm so sorry for the absence from the thread. Interesting replies 
What comes to my mind atm, just my opinion.
'Hindsight - Cherry picking - Live calls' can come in all sorts of flavors. They all have different intentions from the givers and be taken in any way by the receivers.
Live Calls:-
Ive found live calls can be useful for the giver from a psych point of view in that it adds an extra load to the trade (psychologically) and it can help you (if youre open to it) uncover psych problem areas you may have. Fear - public performance - Ego etc
For the receiver it 'can' show a level of competence but can be abused as any other method of reporting. Not as useful if not accompanied with some sort of methodology.
Cherry picking:-
Ive found it interesting to pick individual trades from a cluster and ask receivers for their opinion, particularly for deep draws - losing or BE trades. The intention is to get a gauge of the thinking behind the receivers reply. The cherry picked winners dont seem to generate the same interest
Cherry picking in the sense of just posting winning trades, or sections of PA to show everyone youre a star, is interesting to me as a receiver from a psych point of view.
Can also be used to highlight opportunity, imo.
Hindsight:-
We got the good:
Highlighting opportunity.
Showing what you actually did / didnt do in the play.
Exploring ideas with others.
Conveying the whole picture.
The bad:
Conveying some of the picture.
Woulda shoulda couldas.
And the ugly:
I took the trade here (I didnt really but I want you believe XYZ)
I closed the trade here (I didnt really but I really but I want you believe XYZ)
What comes to my mind atm, just my opinion.
'Hindsight - Cherry picking - Live calls' can come in all sorts of flavors. They all have different intentions from the givers and be taken in any way by the receivers.
Live Calls:-
Ive found live calls can be useful for the giver from a psych point of view in that it adds an extra load to the trade (psychologically) and it can help you (if youre open to it) uncover psych problem areas you may have. Fear - public performance - Ego etc
For the receiver it 'can' show a level of competence but can be abused as any other method of reporting. Not as useful if not accompanied with some sort of methodology.
Cherry picking:-
Ive found it interesting to pick individual trades from a cluster and ask receivers for their opinion, particularly for deep draws - losing or BE trades. The intention is to get a gauge of the thinking behind the receivers reply. The cherry picked winners dont seem to generate the same interest
Cherry picking in the sense of just posting winning trades, or sections of PA to show everyone youre a star, is interesting to me as a receiver from a psych point of view.
Can also be used to highlight opportunity, imo.
Hindsight:-
We got the good:
Highlighting opportunity.
Showing what you actually did / didnt do in the play.
Exploring ideas with others.
Conveying the whole picture.
The bad:
Conveying some of the picture.
Woulda shoulda couldas.
And the ugly:
I took the trade here (I didnt really but I want you believe XYZ)
I closed the trade here (I didnt really but I really but I want you believe XYZ)
tar
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During the last 10 years here we've seen sh$$ load of members who were trying to rely on cherry picking and hindsight to sell their "dream/agenda/products" .
Ofcourse each to their own , every one is free to accept or reject whatever they want , some may even accept just word of mouth , so its more than ok if someone decided to accept cherry picking from others , thats free will .
One thing for sure no one has the right to force others to swallow cherry picked trades from them or trading examples made in hindsight or even live calls .
Ofcourse each to their own , every one is free to accept or reject whatever they want , some may even accept just word of mouth , so its more than ok if someone decided to accept cherry picking from others , thats free will .
One thing for sure no one has the right to force others to swallow cherry picked trades from them or trading examples made in hindsight or even live calls .
darktone
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Some members can't operate that way and need proof of everything.
