Here is the way i daytrade the Emini-YM

[santana55]

Never mind. I realized my issue is I'm over trading (25 trades today at 2 contracts each=50 contracts/100 sides). Aside from costing $235 in commissions 3 stop outs is rougly 10% losers which is in line with your system at 90% odds on your side).

Therefore if I limit myself to 10 carefully picked trades per day 10% losses is 1 bad trade or -$200 which is tolerable. Sometimes I am just too eager to take every trade I see.

By the way just curious how many trades do you average daily?

 

[bnaimy]

Never mind. I realized my issue is I'm over trading (25 trades today at 2 contracts each=50 sides). Aside from costing $235 in commissions 3 stop outs is rougly 10% losers which is in line with your system at 90% odds on your side).

Therefore if I limit myself to 10 carefully picked trades per day 10% losses is 1 bad trade or -$200 which is tolerable. Sometimes I am just too eager to take every trade I see.

You seem to be overtrading yes, because i dident have half that much trades as you santana.I am also suspecting that when you are taking trades, most trades you cover to fast or you just cover to late maybe ?

So you had 3 stops thats 40x3= 120 ticks.
Then thats leavs you with 22 more trades that you dident get stopped out one, how many of those where breakevens ?

I belive there was a few good trades you got early in the day, what is suggest is that when you are up good, then try not to enter trades that look risky.As the day progress,there is less chance of getting ur profits back if you give them away. And try not to trade in lunchtime as well, that will most cases not be good.

I had a tottal of 3 stops, but then again, i got a 113 tick trade and severel +20 and +10 +30 trades as well, so i was still up good for the day.I think you can minimize your bad trades with not taking trades around key levels like 8800 and 8700 areas. Wait for it to break and then take the trade., if things still look good that is.

Hopefully there will be less chopp tomorow, today was really awefull at the end, last hours was amazingly choppy.

With kindregards
Bashir Naimy

 

[vyralsurfer]

Hi Bashir,

As most of us are starting out with modestly sized accounts ($10K or less) I was wondering if you had some money management advice with regard to this system.

It is a high probability system but on choppy days like today you can be exposed to a few stop out trades which add up quickly at 40 ticks each (stopped out 3 times today -$600). With a 2% risk strategy employed that means with a $10K account you must stop trading for the day if stopped out once.

For small accounts halting your trading after 1 stop out might preserve your account's lifespan but at the same time it will take you quite a while to build your account or to get anywhere.

Is there a more conservative method to trade this system until you can more easily withstand 2 contracts per trade with 20 tick stops? I know you could do 1 contract but you don't take advantage of the +10 feature this way.

Had a great day Tuesday but gave it all back plus a little more today.

Thanks

Geeze, sorry to hear that Santana. Perhaps for educational purposes, if you feel comfortable doing so, you could post the trades you took (the times) and we could analyze the position of the market and see what went wrong?

Personally, I lost a little today, but wound up breaking even by the end; I was letting the emotions get through! When you take a long trade and INSTANTLY it goes down 5pts, and the next 1min bar comes and goes down for the fist 30 sec. then goes up only a little bit, it really stresses a guy out! What I've done to alleviate this for the next session I participate in (which may not be till Friday or Monday because of the rollover) is to make ABSOLUTELY sure that everything is by the book (all prices on the right side of EMA and all stochs in the right direction) and I've also been going over the last few weeks of historical data in Sierra and have written some added rules that I've noticed will help (mainly exit strategies) and will stick strictly to these rules. After reading this whole thread and several others over the past few months and now having a few trades under my belt in the futures market, I now know why "sticking to the system" is so important, and also why it's so hard. Best of luck to you Santana and everyone else who is following (including Bashir of course ); see ya in the chat room.

 

[protoss]

stochs line spacing

Hi Bashir,

just need some clarification, in your recent statement you have said the stochs only need to be crossed. does it need to have some spacing as well between the two stochs line? if it does, do you have any suggention on how big is the spacing ?

thank you,
Joseph

Ez, i dont have much time today, so i will try to be quick
.. deleted ..

2:Yes, price needs to be above all the 10ema's on all the charts, unless there is a huge gap betwen the where u are going long/Short and and next resistance.
ANd yes, i only require the stochs to be crossed, they dont need to be hooked in the same direction.

.. deleted ..

 

[vyralsurfer]

Hi Bashir,

just need some clarification, in your recent statement you have said the stochs only need to be crossed. does it need to have some spacing as well between the two stochs line? if it does, do you have any suggention on how big is the spacing ?

thank you,
Joseph

I'm kind of curious to see what Bashir says about that myself...

Through my backtesting, I've noticed that if a stochastic is pointing up, even though the lines are just BARELY crossing (but the numbers do show that the %K > %D) it's a go signal for that chart. I've only tested this for the past few weeks, so you may want to make absolutely sure and possibly test it back further to make sure this is always the case (well, almost always, there is always an exception or two!).

Just throwing my 2 cents into a 119 page thread

 

[santana55]

You seem to be overtrading yes, because i dident have half that much trades as you santana.I am also suspecting that when you are taking trades, most trades you cover to fast or you just cover to late maybe ?

So you had 3 stops thats 40x3= 120 ticks.
Then thats leavs you with 22 more trades that you dident get stopped out one, how many of those where breakevens ?

I belive there was a few good trades you got early in the day, what is suggest is that when you are up good, then try not to enter trades that look risky.As the day progress,there is less chance of getting ur profits back if you give them away. And try not to trade in lunchtime as well, that will most cases not be good.

I had a tottal of 3 stops, but then again, i got a 113 tick trade and severel +20 and +10 +30 trades as well, so i was still up good for the day.I think you can minimize your bad trades with not taking trades around key levels like 8800 and 8700 areas. Wait for it to break and then take the trade., if things still look good that is.

Hopefully there will be less chopp tomorow, today was really awefull at the end, last hours was amazingly choppy.

With kindregards
Bashir Naimy

Bashir,

I appreciate your advice very much.

I had a very large amount of breakevens considering the number of trades I took (which is not a bad thing when you are in the market as often as I was). I also made a couple of emotional trades which made things even worse trying to recoup profits I had lost. I won't be making these mistakes again and I guess you need to learn lessons the hard way in order to make an impression on yourself sometimes.

Will be going strictly by the book, avoiding lunch time trades and doing no more than 10 trades maximum.

I have analyzed my trades and in the past 2 days (haven't received my statement for today yet) I have had:

Day 1, 20 trades (ended slightly positive this day before commission)
45% wins
15% breakevens
40% loss

Day 2, 16 trades (ended up +$750 before commission)
25% wins
69% breakevens
6% loss

Day 3, 25 trades (-600 + before commission)
will post when I get my statement

 

[santana55]

Geeze, sorry to hear that Santana. Perhaps for educational purposes, if you feel comfortable doing so, you could post the trades you took (the times) and we could analyze the position of the market and see what went wrong?

Personally, I lost a little today, but wound up breaking even by the end; I was letting the emotions get through! When you take a long trade and INSTANTLY it goes down 5pts, and the next 1min bar comes and goes down for the fist 30 sec. then goes up only a little bit, it really stresses a guy out! What I've done to alleviate this for the next session I participate in (which may not be till Friday or Monday because of the rollover) is to make ABSOLUTELY sure that everything is by the book (all prices on the right side of EMA and all stochs in the right direction) and I've also been going over the last few weeks of historical data in Sierra and have written some added rules that I've noticed will help (mainly exit strategies) and will stick strictly to these rules. After reading this whole thread and several others over the past few months and now having a few trades under my belt in the futures market, I now know why "sticking to the system" is so important, and also why it's so hard. Best of luck to you Santana and everyone else who is following (including Bashir of course ); see ya in the chat room.

Vyralsurfer,

I hear you. Those stressful moments suck big time and it gets you very emotional if you're not careful. I am going to be very strict with my trading volume and rule strategy as of tomorrow and hopefully will start to see better results more consistently.

See you in chat!

 

[jimbob42]

I think I am finally getting the basics of this system. This thread is a major help in my learning process.
Recently a poster mentioned he's using Ninja Trader for setups. I tried to locate the post but no sucess yet. I am using NT now on a trial basis and would like to know the setup if possible.
Thanks to all and especially to Bashir

 

[mg427]

I been tracking this setup, and I like It I have the 1,3,10, 30 min charts set up with schol & Macd, but does anyone know how to set the 10 ema in Tradestation. Thank You.

Mg

 

[WillemDrees]

Through my backtesting, I've noticed that if a stochastic is pointing up, even though the lines are just BARELY crossing (but the numbers do show that the %K > %D) it's a go signal for that chart. I've only tested this for the past few weeks, so you may want to make absolutely sure and possibly test it back further to make sure this is always the case (well, almost always, there is always an exception or two!).

Just throwing my 2 cents into a 119 page thread

2 Cents well spent ;-) Thnx. I'm still having trouble with the price.
When price breaks all EMA's.
When using the worksheet, do we mean Last price on current bar? Or close (of previous bar) above ema's, cause i've heard that been said as well.

My $K3 cell looks something (but not quite) like this:

$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet2!$AA3 (3min ema)
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet3!$AA3 (10min ema)
etc..

Which in effect means if price peaks at any point in current the 1min bar above all ema's, it's part 1 of a signal cleared.
Should i wait for 1min to close above?
$B4 (low price previous bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND ....

And what's that about the rollover, is today expi of the YMZ8?

Thanx all for the input on the chat, i love it..

 

[laserwolf]

YMZ8 rollover to YMH9

2 Cents well spent ;-) Thnx. I'm still having trouble with the price.
When price breaks all EMA's.
When using the worksheet, do we mean Last price on current bar? Or close (of previous bar) above ema's, cause i've heard that been said as well.

My $K3 cell looks something (but not quite) like this:

$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet2!$AA3 (3min ema)
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet3!$AA3 (10min ema)
etc..

Which in effect means if price peaks at any point in current the 1min bar above all ema's, it's part 1 of a signal cleared.
Should i wait for 1min to close above?
$B4 (low price previous bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND ....

And what's that about the rollover, is today expi of the YMZ8?

Thanx all for the input on the chat, i love it..

Hi guys,

YMZ8 expires on the 3rd friday of Dec (Dec 19th), and the YMZ8 goes into rollover the Thursday of the previous week (ie today Dec 11), and trades in close-only mode.

Not sure what liquidity is going to look like till the end of the week.

Any ideas?

 

[bnaimy]

Hi Bashir,

just need some clarification, in your recent statement you have said the stochs only need to be crossed. does it need to have some spacing as well between the two stochs line? if it does, do you have any suggention on how big is the spacing ?

thank you,
Joseph

When i say that the lines are crossed, i want to see them crossed and have some spacing, by spacing i dont have a fixed rule .I just eyeball it, if i have a hard time seeing any spacing i will not take trade, but i clearly see a spacing betwen the lines that ok with me . I dont wait for the lines to be pointing in th direction of my trade. That will make you give away to much of the move, but then again, its all up to how comfy u are with that.And if the lines are flatt and basicly glued to eachother i dont take the trade, just wait for some spacing.

So no clear rules on that, just something i have overtime come to just evaluate as the day progresses.But you can add aditional rules to that if you well comfy that, that would not be a bad idea.

With kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[bnaimy]

Bashir,

I appreciate your advice very much.

I had a very large amount of breakevens considering the number of trades I took (which is not a bad thing when you are in the market as often as I was). I also made a couple of emotional trades which made things even worse trying to recoup profits I had lost. I won't be making these mistakes again and I guess you need to learn lessons the hard way in order to make an impression on yourself sometimes.

Will be going strictly by the book, avoiding lunch time trades and doing no more than 10 trades maximum.

I have analyzed my trades and in the past 2 days (haven't received my statement for today yet) I have had:

Day 1, 20 trades (ended slightly positive this day before commission)
45% wins
15% breakevens
40% loss

Day 2, 16 trades (ended up +$750 before commission)
25% wins
69% breakevens
6% loss

Day 3, 25 trades (-600 + before commission)
will post when I get my statement

Well, it seems that you are doing alot of breakevens, but its good that you havent loost that much overall. Im sure we will get it all back soon.Just take trades more carefully, and always go true your checkbook, and askyourself, is this trade worth risking 200usd.
When u take that though true your head and 200usd, then you might rethink it.

A note, be carefull on friday, because volume will slowly shift over to the new contracts soon.As soon as volume on both are the same, then change to the march contracts.
We dont want to be trading in low volume marked, that can really hurt use all.

With kind regards
bashir Naimy

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Through my backtesting, I've noticed that if a stochastic is pointing up, even though the lines are just BARELY crossing (but the numbers do show that the %K > %D) it's a go signal for that chart. I've only tested this for the past few weeks, so you may want to make absolutely sure and possibly test it back further to make sure this is always the case (well, almost always, there is always an exception or two!).

Just throwing my 2 cents into a 119 page thread

To put a new perspective on the value of stochs alone, try looking for all the instances of the lines 'barely crossing' then going the other way. In a non-hindsight situation (use a charting replay), when the stochs touch all it really means is that the stochs have touched! Unfortunately, you won't necessarily be able to tell what happens next.

 

[bnaimy]

2 Cents well spent ;-) Thnx. I'm still having trouble with the price.
When price breaks all EMA's.
When using the worksheet, do we mean Last price on current bar? Or close (of previous bar) above ema's, cause i've heard that been said as well.

My $K3 cell looks something (but not quite) like this:

$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet2!$AA3 (3min ema)
$E3 (last price current bar 1min) > Sheet3!$AA3 (10min ema)
etc..

Which in effect means if price peaks at any point in current the 1min bar above all ema's, it's part 1 of a signal cleared.
Should i wait for 1min to close above?
$B4 (low price previous bar 1min) > $AA3 (1min ema) AND ....

And what's that about the rollover, is today expi of the YMZ8?

Thanx all for the input on the chat, i love it..

You can solve that issue, with refering to the last price of the AA4 instead, when a new bar is created it will look at the previouse bar and see if that bars close is lower then then the current bar. So if its higher then it means that new bar is above the 1min ema.


1min ema = E3
Last price of previouse bar = A4
Current price of current bar = A3

=AND(A3>A4,A3>E3)

Buy signal if curent price of current bar is above the last price of previouse bar and
current price is above the 1min 10ema.

Just a little excample, im sure you know what i am talking about. And the E3 A4 are just imagine numbers.

Looking forward to talking to you all soon.

With kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[bnaimy]

To put a new perspective on the value of stochs alone, try looking for all the instances of the lines 'barely crossing' then going the other way. In a non-hindsight situation (use a charting replay), when the stochs touch all it really means is that the stochs have touched! Unfortunately, you won't necessarily be able to tell what happens next.

For those who are automating this, i suggest using a spacing of 0.400 .
That seems to work very well for me. Having it to low will get you faked out to much.
Also use 1min pluss 144tick chart to help you in not getting faked out and get better entrys, so u dont buy at a top or bottom.


With kind regards
Bashir Naimy

 

[WillemDrees]

Well that was a nightmare. Paltalk having server issues, jumping from the standalone app to the express version and back. Disconnects left and right. Then we all moved to skype, but that has some issues, like needing to invite people to conf call or there's no sound. It worked fine for a while but i got kicked out of the conf for some reason at some point, still in the chat though, strange....
Never got around to looking at the charts. Gave up right when i saw Bashir riding the big drop. Nice one. I suggest we give paltalk another chance, there at least you can choose to talk, or to listen.
But i wanna thank Sebastian anyway for setting up skype.

DLed SC362, but that refused to connect to Transact, using same simaccount details as SC346.
Oh well. december's not a great month to trade anyways, or so they say....
Won't have time to check in 2morrow, so good weekend all.
Alex vd Hoek

 

[chilltrader]

The pre-release 362 doesn't work with Transact. I had to download the "normal" version.

Well that was a nightmare. Paltalk having server issues, jumping from the standalone app to the express version and back. Disconnects left and right. Then we all moved to skype, but that has some issues, like needing to invite people to conf call or there's no sound. It worked fine for a while but i got kicked out of the conf for some reason at some point, still in the chat though, strange....
Never got around to looking at the charts. Gave up right when i saw Bashir riding the big drop. Nice one. I suggest we give paltalk another chance, there at least you can choose to talk, or to listen.
But i wanna thank Sebastian anyway for setting up skype.

DLed SC362, but that refused to connect to Transact, using same simaccount details as SC346.
Oh well. december's not a great month to trade anyways, or so they say....
Won't have time to check in 2morrow, so good weekend all.
Alex vd Hoek

 

[WillemDrees]

The pre-release 362 doesn't work with Transact. I had to download the "normal" version.

You mentioned this in the chat this week right?

Ok, on another topic. Let's nominate bnaimy (bashir) for the 2008 Members Choice Award
in the Most helpfull member category here:
2008 Members’ Choice Awards

 

[bnaimy]

You mentioned this in the chat this week right?

Ok, on another topic. Let's nominate bnaimy (bashir) for the 2008 Members Choice Award
in the Most helpfull member category here:
2008 Members’ Choice Awards

Very unlikely that i will win that LOL
I am sure there are others in this forums who does alot more then me


Anyways, today was a really demanding day, really choppy at times and not that many good trade to be had, but i really nailed that big drop at the end, was up +10 +107 on that trade alone. So really made up for all the breakevens i had early in the day.

And on top of a choppy day, we had contract rollover , and paltalk that was really ****ty and crashing every 1-2 min.Had to use skype to talk to people, and in conferance with 9+ people.And getting bombarded with messages about why their sound was not working lol What a stress factor

For the day i was up 150+ and some more, but a reall struggle to get those points today.

Hopefully the paltalk will work tomorow, using skype is not an option, its just a big mess with skype.

Anyways, u all have a good nights rest and talk to you all tomorow.

The 362 version does not work with transact unless u talk to them and enable it , but any lower version will work just fine. Only reason i am using the prerelease is that i want to be able to use their direct data feed,some new api that works better with my autotrader.I would be carefull trying to create something that autotrades, give it alot testing and time before goinglive, there are a kazillion ways of loosing money with it.

Im of to get some sleep, but first im gonna vote for myself :whistling

With kind regards
Bashir Naimy