GREY1 P/L daily

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1,
I wondered if you could comment on the trade I took today and whether what I observed has any bearing or is just a load of codswollop :cheesy: .

I had an OS signal on both the $INDU and CTXS today (attachment CTXS 1) so atempted a long trade on CTXS. It had touched the lower MPD line so seemed like a good entry. $INDU was up on the day but trending down. After I took the trade it went against me and I ended up taking a stop just about where it then turned. (always seems to happen). At this point CTXS had closed outside of lower MPD band and had traded back inside. I seem to recall that this was something you look for in one of your old VWAP threads. This would have been a perfect entry for this trade with the stock trading back up to VWAP. (attachment CTXS 2) The third attachment shows $INDU at the time of entry. It didn't look back after this point.
Was this viable reasoning for this trade, albeit slightly too early, or should it never have been taken.
Any comments gratefully received.

Regards MarkB

Mark ,

You traded correctly under a very un usual market condition and your trade was 100 % correct expect that your stop loss was wrong .. No one can stop market from selling the way it did but if you had adjusted ur stoploss correctly then you would have come out on top .

your trading was spot on and donot get diappointend with the trade. As you saw the stock recovered to hit the VWAP eventually //.......

What counts is

1) Doing the right thing
2) be a LONG TERM winner even if you lose few trades,

Donot give up .. sort out ur stop loss...

grey1

 

[Grey1]

All cash now up $1642.48

No over night position. I just pitty why i did not take the CSCO over night trade as I was going to go 3500 long but never mind

grey1

 

[Grey1]

I really appreciate if you guys tell about ur P/L and why you took a certain trade so we can discuss it here .

Grey1

 

[rajibde]

I really appreciate if you guys tell about ur P/L and why you took a certain trade so we can discuss it here .

Grey1

Hi G1,

I went short on Csco based on RSIs and CCIs in 1, 3, 5 timeframes at $19.93 but closed position at $19.75- not much of a gain. I closed the position as the price was hugging the VWAP for quite some time and the CCIs were almost os. Another reason was that the dow at that point was still oscillating and did not start the steeper dn trend.

Currently with the dow o/s and BSC o/s in all the time frames (CCI & RSI)- could this be a good candidate for a gap up tomorrow at the opening?

Raj

 

[leovirgo]

I really appreciate if you guys tell about ur P/L and why you took a certain trade so we can discuss it here .

Grey1

Been busy shorting Dow, hence no stocks for today... :cheesy:

 

[moreagr]

well this is the third day with a loss. the good news is i was up at 7:30UK around $800 and ended giving it all back plus $90. I really lost discipline on HON at 7:45... i found it trading much lower then the lower MPD band and all MF MACCI were OS ... so I started to scale into the trade in the following time period 7:30-8:30 ignoring market internals and the index.

MISTAKE 1) did not pair trade
MISTAKE 2) was over margined in trade...
MISTAKE 3) Did not do a top/down analysis
MISTAKE 4) I got to Emotional
MISTAKE 5) No predetermined Stop loss

this is why I still find comfort with my night and weekend job ughh

venting

 

[Grey1]

Yoday's report

NVDA is reporting after hours. The result is expected to be flat which market might see it as bad news but considering seasonal adjustment it is pretty good . This isvery difficult to play so be care ful


All leading indicators are downnnnnnnnnn I how ever feel there will be a tiny rally ( DOW IN Postive for short period ) after gapping down @ open and then the sell off for the rest of the day .

please be careful and do your own analysis. I will be most short than long to day ..

PS:-- I donot like market prediction because it means nothing how ever the overall picture to day is SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLERRRRRRSSSSSSSS Shorting ralliesssssssssssssssss

Grey1

 

[MarkB]

Hi Grey1

Thanks very much for your reply and words of encouragement, its nice to know that I have taken onboard some of your teachings . I know that I need to sort out my money/risk management properly and will go over everything you have written on this. I have no intention of giving up.
Thanks again for all the time you dedicate to everyone on this thread, I know it is appreciated.

Regards MarkB

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1

Thanks very much for your reply and words of encouragement, its nice to know that I have taken onboard some of your teachings . I know that I need to sort out my money/risk management properly and will go over everything you have written on this. I have no intention of giving up.
Thanks again for all the time you dedicate to everyone on this thread, I know it is appreciated.

Regards MarkB

sellers did not short the rallies and i only made 588 in two trades. I have been out most of the day and just came home to see my net postion . i set a LMT order for both trades and the result was only small. Had the market moved into negative i would have made a killing ..


grey1

 

[MarkB]

Hi Grey1,

Nice trading for someone who wasn't even in at the time, can't get much better than that :cheesy:
Just wanted to post a couple of pair trades I followed but didn't trade. TYC & TEVA from yesterday and LLL & SLB from today. All had signals from the exhaustion engine at time of entry (marked by arrows). Quite different results. In each pair only one stock was at an MPD band when OB/OS would it still have been ok to take these trades?
Cheers Grey1

Regards MarkB

 

[gulam]

Hi Grey1,

Nice trading for someone who wasn't even in at the time, can't get much better than that :cheesy:
Just wanted to post a couple of pair trades I followed but didn't trade. TYC & TEVA from yesterday and LLL & SLB from today. All had signals from the exhaustion engine at time of entry (marked by arrows). Quite different results. In each pair only one stock was at an MPD band when OB/OS would it still have been ok to take these trades?
Cheers Grey1

Regards MarkB

Hi Mark, when the 2 trades worked, it worked nicely with good profits, but when it didn't work you could have stopped out with small losses. I think G1 says, that all his methods are more right then wrong..... So even with a 51% win ratio you can make a killing.

Seeing how well SLB and LLL worked, I may have the opinion the specialists on both stocks are using Grey1 MACCI! Thats a point to be noted!

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1,

Nice trading for someone who wasn't even in at the time, can't get much better than that :cheesy:
Just wanted to post a couple of pair trades I followed but didn't trade. TYC & TEVA from yesterday and LLL & SLB from today. All had signals from the exhaustion engine at time of entry (marked by arrows). Quite different results. In each pair only one stock was at an MPD band when OB/OS would it still have been ok to take these trades?
Cheers Grey1

Regards MarkB

Mark , I would take the trade myself but the execution of the trade has to be

1) according to ATR
2) LIMT order @ Upper and lower VWAP and close postion as soon as it runs into profit. How many time a stock hits its daily high and stays there ? nearly none.


I am done for the day with a ass kicking performance shorting NVDA based on weakness from previous close( earning report was better but due to Option issue stock collapsed ) . A beautiful short SNDK and few bad trades all fair and square. I had a feeling there would be a sell off yesterday but it did not happend , instead it happend to day. Roffl late by only 24 hours lol

What can i say except ma ma mia Mr market and my thanks goes to Technical analysis .

After the second week of Sept my house will be mine and I be free to have more guests here so i can help out if I can .

grey1

 

[gulam]

Mark , I would take the trade myself but the execution of the trade has to be

1) according to ATR
2) LIMT order @ Upper and lower VWAP and close postion as soon as it runs into profit. How many time a stock hits its daily high and stays there ? nearly none.


I am done for the day with a ass kicking performance shorting NVDA based on weakness from previous close( earning report was better but due to Option issue stock collapsed ) . A beautiful short SNDK and few bad trades all fair and square. I had a feeling there would be a sell off yesterday but it did not happend , instead it happend to day. Roffl late by only 24 hours lol

Grey 1, did you play NVDA earnings, I mean did you short before the earnings yesterday?

Pls can you kindly post your trades.

Thx

 

[ianp]

Hi,

I thought I would show my first live Vwap pair trade , I only traded 100 shares in both RIMM and LLL ,, I exited the trade to early as I had planned to wait for one of the stocks to hit Vwap or I had a signal from the exhaustion engine, but when Rimm started wobbling so did I ..

I had forgotten how good it feels to beat the market (even if it was only $45) !!!!

I am now going to work out how to manage risk properly so i can trade in a reasonable size..


Ian

 

[Grey1]

Hi,

I thought I would show my first live Vwap pair trade , I only traded 100 shares in both RIMM and LLL ,, I exited the trade to early as I had planned to wait for one of the stocks to hit Vwap or I had a signal from the exhaustion engine, but when Rimm started wobbling so did I ..

I had forgotten how good it feels to beat the market (even if it was only $45) !!!!

I am now going to work out how to manage risk properly so i can trade in a reasonable size..


Ian

IAN

Nice one and well done . Please make sure you get the position sizing right other wise you are not hedged sufficiently and that could result in loss. Also can you make sure you leave a LMT order on both ends rather than executing @ market . The whole idea is to create a market neutral position so the effect of trend is eliminated


Gulum

Sorry buddy No Trades this time as TWS closes its screen after 1030 every night . I 100 % make sure i will post all trade screen shot from now on .Regarding NVDA ,, I am not an earning player . I donot like it I donot recommend it unless you have inside info ,because you never know how the players react to good news .. saying that I decided to short NVDA based on Euphoria/Capitulation of the stock after hour. NVDA fell $ -2.85 after hours and 9 out of 10 stocks bounce off their worse level . I shorted it and then went long as NVDA result was higher than expectation just that they had back dating option issue which at the moment few stocks such as AAPL are going though but market participant donot see it as a SELL OFF.

The market after hours up until 10PM Uk times was very liquid with low spread., This was another reason to play the stock .

PS:-- By the way i made around $1800 on Strategy 3 yesterday on SNDK . I practice what I preach

Grey1

 

[Trader333]

Hi Ian,

Nice One and once you decide to use larger size dont forget that position sizing for each stock needs to be relative to the volatility of each instrument traded. This can easily be set up in RS for each timeframe that you are monitoring. Did you take alerts from RS for this trade ?




Paul

 

[rajibde]

Hi Ian,

This can easily be set up in RS for each timeframe that you are monitoring.

Paul

Hi Paul

Can you please expand on this- how to set this up?

Cheers!

Raj

 

[Trader333]

Raj,

You can write an indicator based on volatility of the timeframe traded that incorporates the optimum position size relative to the size of your account or desired percentage of your account that you wish to risk.


Paul

 

[ianp]

IAN

Nice one and well done . Please make sure you get the position sizing right other wise you are not hedged sufficiently and that could result in loss. Also can you make sure you leave a LMT order on both ends rather than executing @ market .

Hi Grey1,

Can I just clarify how to exit a pair trade, I had planned to hold the trade until one of the stocks hit Vwap or my stop, then I would have closed both trades at the same time, I take it that I should place my exit orders using limits and wait for either my stop or target to be hit by one of the pairs and then close the other pair at the same time to be market neutral ?

thanks
Ian

 

[ianp]

Hi Ian,

Nice One and once you decide to use larger size dont forget that position sizing for each stock needs to be relative to the volatility of each instrument traded. This can easily be set up in RS for each timeframe that you are monitoring. Did you take alerts from RS for this trade ?




Paul

Hi Paul,

I didn't think about volatility and position size, I just looked at the stock value and as they were a similar price just used the same position size.

So basically if stock A has a volatility of 10 , and stock B has a volatility of 5, I should trade twice as many shares in stock B as it has half the volatility of stock A ?

I did use RS for the signals , I came across "VWAP_TGTb" when I was looking through my old TS files , i am sure you have moved on to a more sophisticated vwap engine but the original one still did the job, It also gave me another pair trade signal at 3.10pm uk for Nvda and Amgn which would have worked out positive as well, I didnt take the trade as I was to busy watching the first one.

cheers
Ian