Goldmine!

[FX4Newbies]

How The Market Ended.

Just a wrap up chart.

Thanks for dropping by this week. Enjoy your weekend.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Just Watching

Hope you all enjoyed the weekend. I have just been watching...nothing more at the moment. Thinking it may climb a little more.

Take care,

 

[FX4Newbies]

US Session June 28

Two chart views...a cleaner chart (less lines) followed by our continuation chart...for those who want to follow price action.

Of course, if the support of the MLHs do not hold, the ML of the current down-sloping darker red fork on the lower chart could be the target.

(Watching price interact with these lines tells me something).

Enjoy your trading today.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Interesting Thought From A Trader

hi,as you see i have 2 forks,one up and one down,

i wait now to see which one has the frequency,then play that one,moving down to 15 min chart for entry.

does that sound ok ?

off to work now will checking later

thanks

My responses:

Looking for entry on the M15 is not a bad idea. However, be careful, at a junction like this, whales could be around with some fake moves, running stops etc.

Be very careful.

In response to your question, "which fork?", for me the question is "where is the trend?". Then, look at that fork. If that fork's MLH is broken, then you have gotten some clues from price action. At that point, you wait/look for confirmation of a trend change...then if so, you look for entry.

We must train ourselves to analyze price action carefully, objectively and systematically. I definitely saw a potential short forming around 1.2390. But, I am in a process of disciplining myself to watch and trade with the trend, not that it would have been a bad trade. Just a mentoring approach for me personally right now.

My 3 cents .

 

[FX4Newbies]

Price Is Trying To Hold On

Definitely some downward pressure. Price is trying to hold on at teal L-MLH.
Whale territory. Be careful. Do you see the war zone?

 

[FX4Newbies]

The Bears Won

Hello again,

Just got back to the office...bearish momentum won the war. Will they take it to the ML? See comment on Post 163.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Sharing An Observation

Notice how price fell more freely after it retested the teal L-MLH? At that point it became clear that something had definitely changed. Prior to that, the market was very choppy. Traders of varying degrees of risk tolerance would choose to enter at different points along the way down. More conservative traders were waiting for a clearer sign. That point was it for them. If you were to look at a M5 chart, this would be very apparent to you in the way price fell.

Also notice when it began to fall in relation to the second target...about the same time it might have continued up.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Ml Target Achieved?

The Power Of Median Lines!

I hope by now those of you who may be new to Pitchforks see how powerfully these lines work. Attached is a chart showing that price got extremely close to the target ML. Close enough for me.

Should be posting again for Asian Session.

Take care,

 

[FX4Newbies]

Asian Session June 28

Just a quick post. Updated the Pitchforks. Price is trying to make an upward move, but has not yet been able to hold above the L-MLH. Will be watching for confirmation of next move. Scalping trades may be all that is available at the moment.

Take care and beware,

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

Newbie, I got a question, and I hope it comes out constructively, because, honestly, that's what I mean it as.
The answer is, "No, I don't see how powerfully these lines work. I trade full-time, so I spend a lot of time in front of the computer, and I love studying other indicators.
On your chart, you got lines going all over the place, and then all your posts you are waiting on price action, but no trades are getting made because of the uncertainty. Now, I'm probably a lot more impetuous than a lot of traders, but how do you know when to pull the trigger? But then, maybe you are pulling the trigger a lot but not posting. Not finding fault with that, but I'm having a hard time figuring when you are getting signals from the forks.
What's strange here is I was reviewing all the pairs and was pulling my hair out trying to decide which 2 or 3 to trade tonight. Yes, that is the impetuouness coming through.
BTW, I am still experimenting with your forks. I once was experimenting with the Fibs in lieu of my S&R's, and it blew my mind what I came up with. I've been working with different formulas to try and pre-determine the slope of trades. I've got some software people that are now working on this project with me, so I'm hoping things will come to fruition soon. I was trying to see how your forks might work to that end, but it has availed me nothing to this point. If it ever worked, I would label my new indicator Newbie's Forks.

The Power Of Median Lines!

I hope by now those of you who may be new to Pitchforks see how powerfully these lines work. Attached is a chart showing that price got extremely close to the target ML. Close enough for me.

Should be posting again for Asian Session.

Take care,

 

[FX4Newbies]

Sideways Market/Slightly Upward Bias

Just added the gray Pitchfork...a variation of the Standard version. It shows that the market is in a sideways mode at the moment. Notice how this fork has been providing support for price.

Will definitely be watching for price to start making a move and generating some swings.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

Hello 4xpipcounter,

Glad you see enough happening with these lines to want to try to figure them out . I leave lines in sometimes, so people can follow the progression. It may be hard for someone just jumping in and getting it. They need to go back a few charts and go with the flow.

Regarding your comment about waiting...the lowest risk trades are placed close to Support or Resistance levels. I wait and watch for price to get in position for the lift off so-to-speak. I do not like entering a trade, having it roll around forever, before it decides to go somewhere. The longer your money is in the market, the greater the risk to which it is exposed. I like seeing my set-up and entry, getting in and letting the market move. Usually when I enter a trade, I am profitable in minutes, and the price keeps going if my timing was optimal. Trading isn't hard if we are patient. Most people just aren't.

Anyway, I have attached two charts that should help you a little. The first chart was posted earlier in the thread. Learning to trade with Pitchforks is not difficult, but it does require training and education, which is more than can be done here. Maybe people would like what they see and would want to learn. If so, they can contact me.

The Pitchfork operates on the same concept as trading off of Support and Resistance: buy at Support, sell at Resistance. In chart two, the U-MLH is acting as Resistance, hence the sell.

I think with your experience in trading, it should now make more sense.

Thanks for the question,

Newbie, I got a question, and I hope it comes out constructively, because, honestly, that's what I mean it as.
The answer is, "No, I don't see how powerfully these lines work. I trade full-time, so I spend a lot of time in front of the computer, and I love studying other indicators.
On your chart, you got lines going all over the place, and then all your posts you are waiting on price action, but no trades are getting made because of the uncertainty. Now, I'm probably a lot more impetuous than a lot of traders, but how do you know when to pull the trigger? But then, maybe you are pulling the trigger a lot but not posting. Not finding fault with that, but I'm having a hard time figuring when you are getting signals from the forks.
What's strange here is I was reviewing all the pairs and was pulling my hair out trying to decide which 2 or 3 to trade tonight. Yes, that is the impetuouness coming through.
BTW, I am still experimenting with your forks. I once was experimenting with the Fibs in lieu of my S&R's, and it blew my mind what I came up with. I've been working with different formulas to try and pre-determine the slope of trades. I've got some software people that are now working on this project with me, so I'm hoping things will come to fruition soon. I was trying to see how your forks might work to that end, but it has availed me nothing to this point. If it ever worked, I would label my new indicator Newbie's Forks.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

You and I are very different traders which is why I try and figure you and your system out.
I'm not afraid to leave my money in the market for long periods of time, because eventually (just my peronal experience talking), I know it will come around and I will be taking some pips out of the markets.
I guess there was time my stomach got sick when palcing a trade, because I was that nervous. Now, it is exactly the opposite. I spot the opportunity on a fly, and give it no though after that. I jsut have to remember how to left-click the mouse.
In lieu of patience, though, thee are two words that is almost a cliche in trading cirlces, and that is--"greed" and "fear". You have to be patient, but it is amazing how those two attributes play right into being patient.
Okay, just had to check in to see how the man with the fork is doing. Thanks for fielding the question.

Hello 4xpipcounter,

Glad you see enough happening with these lines to want to try to figure them out . I leave lines in sometimes, so people can follow the progression. It may be hard for someone just jumping in and getting it. They need to go back a few charts and go with the flow.

Regarding your comment about waiting...the lowest risk trades are placed close to Support or Resistance levels. I wait and watch for price to get in position for the lift off so-to-speak. I do not like entering a trade, having it roll around forever, before it decides to go somewhere. The longer your money is in the market, the greater the risk to which it is exposed. I like seeing my set-up and entry, getting in and letting the market move. Usually when I enter a trade, I am profitable in minutes, and the price keeps going if my timing was optimal. Trading isn't hard if we are patient. Most people just aren't.

Anyway, I have attached two charts that should help you a little. The first chart was posted earlier in the thread. Learning to trade with Pitchforks is not difficult, but it does require training and education, which is more than can be done here. Maybe people would like what they see and would want to learn. If so, they can contact me.

The Pitchfork operates on the same concept as trading off of Support and Resistance: buy at Support, sell at Resistance. In chart two, the U-MLH is acting as Resistance, hence the sell.

I think with your experience in trading, it should now make more sense.

Thanks for the question,

 

[FX4Newbies]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

If you don't mind me asking, what is the stop loss you generally use in your trading plan? Do you scalp or position trade? I certainly do not mind leaving my money in the market for long periods, but not to roll around trying to find itself, if you know what I mean.

Regarding the comment that fear and greed play into being patient...when you have a very clear trading edge and a plan that has been back-tested, it is easy to wait because you know what you are looking and waiting for.

Thanks for the reply,

You and I are very different traders which is why I try and figure you and your system out.
I'm not afraid to leave my money in the market for long periods of time, because eventually (just my peronal experience talking), I know it will come around and I will be taking some pips out of the markets.
I guess there was time my stomach got sick when palcing a trade, because I was that nervous. Now, it is exactly the opposite. I spot the opportunity on a fly, and give it no though after that. I jsut have to remember how to left-click the mouse.
In lieu of patience, though, thee are two words that is almost a cliche in trading cirlces, and that is--"greed" and "fear". You have to be patient, but it is amazing how those two attributes play right into being patient.
Okay, just had to check in to see how the man with the fork is doing. Thanks for fielding the question.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

I don't mind you asking. I'm open to about any questions someone has.
As far as the tenure in the trade, this depends on how it was entered. Once cable has topped out, at around 1.5278, I could be in that trade for awhile, as it heads towards 1.3847. As a whole, I'm used to entering a trade at night, going to be, and waking up to pips in the morning.
About 12:00 Noon EST is a good tome for intra-day reversals. If I see an opportunity to make a trade and grab some pips during midday, I'll do that.
As far as stops are concerned, I do not use them (I don't care what the crowd mentality is along thse lines.). I have entered trades that are not pretty, but i'm not afraid to hold them, while waiting for them to turn in my favor. My largest loss this year is 47 pips, so I'm not griping.
Let me qualify that. My largest net loss is 47 pips. I took out two trades on aussie the other day. One was <> +180, and the other was <> -90. The net was +90. I'm noy going to pull my records to get those exact numbers, but I'm just making the point.
I also make a lot more trades than I post. Again, I'm not here to impress no one. I love what I'm doing, and love the interactions with everyone, and I love being challenged.
This is how and why we are so different. (there's nothing wrong here. We are just different in our approach.) You're making pips, and I am too. That is the bottom line.
After looking at charts for 6 years, I have learned to spot my setups on a fly. I have ice in my veins before I enter and after I enter. You can check this on my blog. I had a trade on cable that was entered as a short at 1.6650 (Backed up on me about 300 pips, incidentally.). I closed it at 1.4650 ( I thought a nice even amount would be good.), and went to sleep. My wife aked me how we did after I awoke. My answer was, "Fine." But then, that is my same answer on a losing day. After she found out the trade was +2,000 pips, she knew to never ask me again. She doesn't care. The bills are paid. Life is great!
What makes me like my metaphor, the drunken butterfly (Because I float. You just don't know where I'm going to land.) is that my method of trading has been soundly developed, I have supreme confidence in it, but it took a lot of time to develop. I'm also still a student of trading. I realize I'm only human, and I do make mistakes, so in lieu of my shortcomings, every once in awhile, I have to take out a losing trade. That's just part of the job. I get about as excited when I take out a losing trade as I did the 2,000-pip winner.
BTW, I was serious. I took the trade out at 1,4650 so just I could have a nice round number. I knew it was headed further down. See what I mean? A drunken butterrfly.
That's the highlight reel. I should tell you I bankrupted my account 3 times in 2004 and the beginning of 2005. Once my methodology was fully developed, I even had one losing month--Oct 2007.
Again, bottom line, we just need to keeping making more +pips than -pips. As long as that is the case, we will make a good living.
Look below for a comment on your last paragraph.

If you don't mind me asking, what is the stop loss you generally use in your trading plan? Do you scalp or position trade? I certainly do not mind leaving my money in the market for long periods, but not to roll around trying to find itself, if you know what I mean.

Regarding the comment that fear and greed play into being patient...when you have a very clear trading edge and a plan that has been back-tested, it is easy to wait because you know what you are looking and waiting for.

And that is what I mean about having a methodology that is fully developed. You have sole confidence in your methodology. No one can take it from you. It doesn't matter how everyone else is doing. It's because you got your Baby.
I hope this comes out right. Because of the aforementioned, I enjoy talking to others about their respective methodologies, but I never run an opinion poll on how I trade. It is also my anture to love to see the success in others, which is why I ahve the utmost respect for others that are trading and doing well.

Thanks for the reply,

Thanks, you got a great attitude which is why I like talking to you.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

Glad your method works for you. According to my trading plan, I don't think it is wise to let a trade roll around in the negative several hundred pips, waiting for it to come back. Don't know how many days are involved either. Just doesn't seem efficient to me. Do you average down...place more trades as price goes against you? I believe entries can and should be more precise. But... the bills are paid, and your wife is happy...it woks for you .

Glad you like my attitude. There is alot to learn all the time and it is good when these things can be discussed.

Take care,

I don't mind you asking. I'm open to about any questions someone has.
As far as the tenure in the trade, this depends on how it was entered. Once cable has topped out, at around 1.5278, I could be in that trade for awhile, as it heads towards 1.3847. As a whole, I'm used to entering a trade at night, going to be, and waking up to pips in the morning.
About 12:00 Noon EST is a good tome for intra-day reversals. If I see an opportunity to make a trade and grab some pips during midday, I'll do that.
As far as stops are concerned, I do not use them (I don't care what the crowd mentality is along thse lines.). I have entered trades that are not pretty, but i'm not afraid to hold them, while waiting for them to turn in my favor. My largest loss this year is 47 pips, so I'm not griping.
Let me qualify that. My largest net loss is 47 pips. I took out two trades on aussie the other day. One was <> +180, and the other was <> -90. The net was +90. I'm noy going to pull my records to get those exact numbers, but I'm just making the point.
I also make a lot more trades than I post. Again, I'm not here to impress no one. I love what I'm doing, and love the interactions with everyone, and I love being challenged.
This is how and why we are so different. (there's nothing wrong here. We are just different in our approach.) You're making pips, and I am too. That is the bottom line.
After looking at charts for 6 years, I have learned to spot my setups on a fly. I have ice in my veins before I enter and after I enter. You can check this on my blog. I had a trade on cable that was entered as a short at 1.6650 (Backed up on me about 300 pips, incidentally.). I closed it at 1.4650 ( I thought a nice even amount would be good.), and went to sleep. My wife aked me how we did after I awoke. My answer was, "Fine." But then, that is my same answer on a losing day. After she found out the trade was +2,000 pips, she knew to never ask me again. She doesn't care. The bills are paid. Life is great!
What makes me like my metaphor, the drunken butterfly (Because I float. You just don't know where I'm going to land.) is that my method of trading has been soundly developed, I have supreme confidence in it, but it took a lot of time to develop. I'm also still a student of trading. I realize I'm only human, and I do make mistakes, so in lieu of my shortcomings, every once in awhile, I have to take out a losing trade. That's just part of the job. I get about as excited when I take out a losing trade as I did the 2,000-pip winner.
BTW, I was serious. I took the trade out at 1,4650 so just I could have a nice round number. I knew it was headed further down. See what I mean? A drunken butterrfly.
That's the highlight reel. I should tell you I bankrupted my account 3 times in 2004 and the beginning of 2005. Once my methodology was fully developed, I even had one losing month--Oct 2007.
Again, bottom line, we just need to keeping making more +pips than -pips. As long as that is the case, we will make a good living.
Look below for a comment on your last paragraph.




Thanks, you got a great attitude which is why I like talking to you.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

I have had some bad trades that have still turned out winners. I've also entered trades that turned on a dime. I called the Dow's reversal at 11,246, but it reversed at 11,254 and got 880 points off it.
To me days don't matter. Winning is all that matters (In trading, that is.).
There are better ways to go, than a trade backing up on you by 250 pips and then gaining 50, but while that weas happening other trades were also going on.
Avg down? Absolutely. That is how I ended up with a net gain on the aussie I told you about.
Admittedly so, I messed up on my most recent entry on cable. I was just looking for some quick pips, and it went against me as soon as it went for me. But, and again, no big deal. If it goes back to circa 1.5005, I'll hedge the trade. If it just continues to 1.5278, then that is where I add on the extra short. Let's face it, there is something better than pips, and that is double the pips.
The thing is no one can guarantee entries to be so precise. If you make the perfect trade, then fine. Some aren't so fine. Big deal!
Having said all that, that is in part, why I fail as a signal provider. No one can keep up with me. This is because sometimes I'll enter a trade, get the pop and bail out, because I saw something that told me to do it--like the aussie when I jumped when I did. Most traders don't have the (not bragging) mental makeup I have, so if a trade goes agaisnt them, they are no longer laughing. Things never change for me and Tucker. Also, if I get the perfect trade, then I give the ,signal, it may have already moved 50 pips by the time someone got to their computer. The question, "When do you place your trades?" cracks me up. I place them when it is time to do so, just like I did on your euro at 1.2288 and took it out while we have been having our dialogue at 1.2259.
Another area I failed in was as an account manager. My mental mindset goes south trading for others, and all the hassles involved.
This is another reason I love trading so much. While we were talking, I made more money on that trade on the euro than I did working all week in a factory several years ago.
BTW, that euro trade was a perfect trade--caught the peak and exited 2 points from the low. Sometimes it happens. Oh yeah, zzzz. No big deal. It does have legs on it. I see it hitting 1.1271. I just wanted quick pips tonight.
Let me see. Oh rats, my EUR/AUD is losing, zzzz. No big deal. I'll just have to wait until tommorrow to close it.
Another nice thing. How many jobs do you know where you left-click the mouse, go to bed, and wake up to $$$$?
Yes, I'm still messing around with your fork and trying to figure it out.

Glad your method works for you. According to my trading plan, I don't think it is wise to let a trade roll around in the negative several hundred pips, waiting for it to come back. Don't know how many days are involved either. Just doesn't seem efficient to me. Do you average down...place more trades as price goes against you? I believe entries can and should be more precise. But... the bills are paid, and your wife is happy...it woks for you .

Glad you like my attitude. There is alot to learn all the time and it is good when these things can be discussed.

Take care,

 

[FX4Newbies]

Re: Ml Target Achieved?

Well 4xpipcounter,

Your trading approach is on the controversial side in my opinion . I know of several traders and money managers who would not approve of your money/risk management approach...no stops, averaging down etc. In response to your comment that no one can guarantee entries so precisely. Well somebody is, because if price is turning on a dime, then somebody's trade did it. When I trade, I may not have it on a dime, (and I am not trying to either) but I generally know which bar or candle to look for my entry, before that bar or candle begins (using a combination of the Pitchfork and my entry method).

Our trading styles are definitely different. Yours is quite unorthodox, but I like your "ice in the veins" comment...that is a good quality for a trader to have regardless of their style or method.

Keep on pressing. Hope your research comes together with something very interesting. And there is no business like the trading business...where you go to bed and wake up to $$$$.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

I have had some bad trades that have still turned out winners. I've also entered trades that turned on a dime. I called the Dow's reversal at 11,246, but it reversed at 11,254 and got 880 points off it.
To me days don't matter. Winning is all that matters (In trading, that is.).
There are better ways to go, than a trade backing up on you by 250 pips and then gaining 50, but while that weas happening other trades were also going on.
Avg down? Absolutely. That is how I ended up with a net gain on the aussie I told you about.
Admittedly so, I messed up on my most recent entry on cable. I was just looking for some quick pips, and it went against me as soon as it went for me. But, and again, no big deal. If it goes back to circa 1.5005, I'll hedge the trade. If it just continues to 1.5278, then that is where I add on the extra short. Let's face it, there is something better than pips, and that is double the pips.
The thing is no one can guarantee entries to be so precise. If you make the perfect trade, then fine. Some aren't so fine. Big deal!
Having said all that, that is in part, why I fail as a signal provider. No one can keep up with me. This is because sometimes I'll enter a trade, get the pop and bail out, because I saw something that told me to do it--like the aussie when I jumped when I did. Most traders don't have the (not bragging) mental makeup I have, so if a trade goes agaisnt them, they are no longer laughing. Things never change for me and Tucker. Also, if I get the perfect trade, then I give the ,signal, it may have already moved 50 pips by the time someone got to their computer. The question, "When do you place your trades?" cracks me up. I place them when it is time to do so, just like I did on your euro at 1.2288 and took it out while we have been having our dialogue at 1.2259.
Another area I failed in was as an account manager. My mental mindset goes south trading for others, and all the hassles involved.
This is another reason I love trading so much. While we were talking, I made more money on that trade on the euro than I did working all week in a factory several years ago.
BTW, that euro trade was a perfect trade--caught the peak and exited 2 points from the low. Sometimes it happens. Oh yeah, zzzz. No big deal. It does have legs on it. I see it hitting 1.1271. I just wanted quick pips tonight.
Let me see. Oh rats, my EUR/AUD is losing, zzzz. No big deal. I'll just have to wait until tommorrow to close it.
Another nice thing. How many jobs do you know where you left-click the mouse, go to bed, and wake up to $$$$?
Yes, I'm still messing around with your fork and trying to figure it out.

 

[FX4Newbies]

London Session June 29

Price continues to fall...did not find support at new teal L-MLH

FYI: Price is finding support at the U-MLH of a fork that started this run up on June 2nd. If price does not hold at that U-MLH, or current support level shown here, then the L-MLH of the current red fork is a likely target.

Take care,

 

[FX4Newbies]

Updated Chart

A new fork shows price's attempt to go lower. Hitting support at the ML target of new fork. Will see how it played out when I return to the office.