Gold

[meanreversion]

Are you a technical investor? A momentum investor? I couldn't care less about a site that says you're great, or any personal praise. What is there to show you are actually any good?

NR is a bit of a hot head, DC, but he is trying to give you advice, albeit in a roundabout way.

Let's try to get some clarity again.

The Fed doesn't publish M3 any more. It's suspicious, and I have no idea why not, but that is what's happened. Maybe hyperinflation is around the corner, who knows. Right now the biggest debate in economics is between the inflationists and the deflationists.. you will find very learned people on both sides.

BUT this has NOTHING to do with trading, certainly not the way that you're going to trade, Dunecat. Let's say your Dad has just given you £10k, and you've deposited it at IG (or whichever broker you choose to use).

You say you want to "invest" in gold. What does "invest" mean? Do you want to buy £10k of gold? And then hold onto it for a long time? (Do you have a profit target? Is there a stop loss? Is there any exit strategy at all?)

You also want to "invest" in BP. Why? Do you know something about the containment of the oil spill that no-one else does? If not, then this isn't investing, it's just gambling. You're simply taking a chance that BP are going to stop the leak soon. But what if they don't? Where is your stop loss? Do you have an exit strategy?

If you're buying BP because you THINK they're going to stop the leak sooner than the market does, I would describe that as gambling. Nothing wrong with a flutter now and again, of course, but it's certainly not investing. Have you considered that BP might go bankrupt over this? If you do buy, please make sure you place a stop to the downside.

There are some very successful fundamental traders out there, but they have access to data and information that you can never hope to have. This is why most retail traders use price action to determine their trades, as that's all they have to go off. This is NOT why most retail traders fail, there are other reasons (and other threads on it).

Just read that book I mentioned before "investing" any money, please..

 

[MrGecko]

either

i) Dunecat is a troll, or
ii) He is quoting his dad verbatim

 

[meanreversion]

Verbatim, I love that word.

 

[glyder]

Seeing as gold shares haven't really taken off to stratospheric heights yet, I doubt that the bubble has arrived yet....if it ever will.

Dunecat - you seem to have picked up many of the global big issue stories doing the rounds at the moment which lend support to gold going ever upwards, which it may for a while, however the US & Western economies in general have always managed to muddle through the bad times, though not always with the most intelligent policies from politicians etc but that in itself implies that 'muddling through' can be good enough.
Of course there are great changes going on w/wide with Chinas ascendancy etc and the Euro and EU may fall to bits (Yes, I wish and the Austrian/ VonMises theory that a credit boom can only ever end in currency collapse may turn out to be true.
But I'd bet that the policymakers 'muddling through' will mean things hold together somehow and currency collapse doesn't happen.
But theres no harm to have a few sovereigns handy, just in case.
You can always pass them in to your kids and they to their kids. Gold always comes back into fashion again eventually.

 

[N Rothschild]

Impart wisdom by being a complete faggot? This is new, we should inform the world's top psychologists. This is a sure way to impart wisdom!

No, you are right, I have zero experience. I do however, detest people who claim I'm and idiot and imply my rationale is inherently flawed, and then fail to back it up with anything. I think the fact you are so closed towards this argument will certainly hurt you sooner or later. Believe it or not, but I did actually look up arguments that went against this hypothesis. I was skeptical. I failed to find one that had any weight to it. It was all happiness and optimism, "consumer confidence" and "the US economy has never been better "

I find it hard to believe that somebody on holiday has the time to or can be bothered arguing with some anonymous person on the internet. The US open huh? Sun bathing huh? Cool story, bro.

Stop for a second and think how many people i have argued this with, how many new members? Just search for all my posts and you will soon see the answers your looking for regarding these statements.

So im closed to the argument? Pot, meet kettle.

Who says im on holiday? I live in the UK, i trade US markets. Work starts at 2:30pm which leaves mid day for, shopping and sunbathing.

I admire your views for your age, although i don't believe your actually 15. But im afraid you are wrong, and it will cost you a lot of money to realise this.

 

[N Rothschild]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/eco...imar-hyperinflation-happen-again-america.html

start with this thread and read all my posts and you will find the counter argument your looking for.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

NR won't be impressed by this I know, but interesting or amusing reading (especially the comments, as usual), according to your taste:-




http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gl...-gold-standard-responsible-worlds-sovereign-d

 

[scose-no-doubt]

2-1 that dunecat is Halotrader.

 

[N Rothschild]

2-1 that dunecat is Halotrader.

or TAjammy

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I don't know - I thought it was quite entertaining. Articulate 15yr old with wedded fundamental view vs long term value trader.

Is this TAJammy again...?

 

[cr6196]

right just to outline some points here,

the reason why they stopped publishing M3 is because it is completely useless, it doesn't tell you anything about money supply but if your interested in money supply growth the rate is now at rock bottom lows...why? because there is massive spare capacity and unemployment, again if you had even a basic level of economics you would know this.

peter schiff is a bit of a twat, the only thing that manaing money is about is how many people you can get to trust you. it isn't that amazing he predicted the housing bubble, like most bubbles it was fairly obvious...what needs to be considered is how you stop them? (btw raising rates is the incorrect answer according econ hist, regard 2006 rate raises)

the $ reserve status will not go any time soon, no1 is talking about it, China did suggest something else a few months ago but that was blatant political move...more to the point China and Japan are so long the $ that if the dollar stopped being the reserve currency about 25% of their wealth would disappear overnight or something similiar, again look at the facts. What is likely and what looks like happening is that the US will begin to export more.

the debt is not unsustainable because the $ is the worlds reserve currency however, it is a two sided story as the debt relates to surplus countries as well. again what is likely is that US savers will fill the gap.

why is deflation so bad? if you knew basic economic history such as the great depression/japan which has been endlessly reeled out recently you would know that deflation is bad...very bad, esp with a country with a lot of private debt as deflation transfers money to lenders. It also crushes any kind of consumption activity and would lead to serious trade problems.

US inflation isn't understated...it just isn't...i understand the confusion money supply/demand is complicated esp. nowadays when it isn't clear what money is but if you need reference look at Britain in the 1980s i can't remember how many money supply indicators (DCE,M2...anymore? M0,M1) they used but it is extremely diffucult to keep track of. and again the basic fact is that typical inflation doesn't happen with this level of spare capactiy. What is plausible is a supply problem but that was more likely in '08 or '09.

This view of inflation/deflation relates to the stimulus package tho, if you dont understand deflation you wouldn't understand the stimulus package.

I would also add that value investing isn't as simple as it seems, i have read almost every value investing book there is and while it works, it is only half the story. To explain it simply, it works because buying dips has worked for the past 30 years, if you had tried value investing in Japan in the past 20 years you probablly would have got ****ed. If you adhere closely to something and you rely on the idea working for success you will get ****ed. BTW Buffet doesn't think America is ****ed, why would he buy Burlington which relies on internal economic strength? He may think that debt is too high but that is something else and if anyone cashed in on the massive consumer strength in the recent decades it was him.

I hope that helped, but the best advice I can give is read an economics textbook if you want to pontificate on the macroeconomy, don't get your views from the news and don't think someone like Schiff/Buffett is nesscessairly a genius, recognize their achievements but realize that they have clear faults. The only decent point you make is recognizing that gold has gone up.

 

[meanreversion]

Dunecat is not sufficiently capitalised, nor does he have good enough information, to consider being a "value investor". In fact very few individuals are. That's why we all trade using price action.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Dunecat is not sufficiently capitalised, nor does he have good enough information, to consider being a "value investor". In fact very few individuals are. That's why we all trade using price action.

You left out the fact that he is obviously an idiot as evidenced by his being a troll and posing as a child on the net.

 

[wackypete2]

Somebody explain to me how the US is going to get out of 10 trillion debt with no real exports to speak of, 40-50 trillion in debt obligations and a few expensive wars that have already contributed 1.3 trillion to the defecit.

We sell it to China. They own enough of our debt to almost be an ally of sorts. Does them no good to see the USA or it's foreign policies fail. They're doing a decent job of keeping the peace and being a liason to North Korea for us...who would have thought THAT would happen 20 years ago?

Peter

disclaimer: These are my personal views and have absolutely nothing to do with anything. Past performance does guarantee future results if there's enough money in it.

 

[meanreversion]

You left out the fact that he is obviously an idiot as evidenced by his being a troll and posing as a child on the net.

Posing as a child? Is he trying to "groom" us?

 

[N Rothschild]

maybe its peter schiff trying to lure us back to his gold grotto

 

[bevok]

One thing to add, Dunecat I think you come from the perspective of Australia where exports and balance of payment surpluses are critical. Recognise that the US economy is very different - although exports aren't irrelevant the massive internal demand and power in that economy means that the US doesn't have to 'export its way out of trouble' in the way that smaller economies do.

Have a read of that book Meanreversion recommended. If you really are 15 and haven't set up your trading account yet your criticisms of technical analysis and momentum trading are absolutely absurd.

 

[N Rothschild]

are you familiar with reagans imperial circle Dunecat?

 

[meanreversion]

Why would anyone masquerade as a 15 year old on a TRADING website? That is absurd in itself. I think we have to take his word for it.

I was fairly sesquipedalian when I was 15.. it's not beyond the realms of probability that he is 15. The thinking is very woolly though, and a touch too opinionated. But hey! If you're not sure of yourself when 15, when will you be?

 

[meanreversion]

(Lamb to the slaughter, I hear NR cry!)