Gold

[meanreversion]

So other than moving averages (which occupies the middle ground between TA and econometrics), what else are you looking at (if of course you feel obliged)?

Aside from pics of K Brook in the Daily Mail?

It's a fairly simple trend system which looks for either breakouts or retracements, using n day high and low. It increases bet size following initial entry if the market move goes in favour of the trade. It's nothing that can't be found on the web or in books.

It has worked very well *so far* this year but it's really not for everyone. I'm averaging about 10 trades a month and equity swings can be severe. Furthermore, it requires a decent chunk of capital to allow for these equity swings, and futures margin.

One of the advantages of a system is that it can be applied to different markets, thereby increasing the probability of finding favourable market conditions (I hope).

 

[meanreversion]

a trend filter is an indicator..

In the extreme, any price analysis is TA/using an indicator. Thus, every trader thus uses TA (apart from ODDT and his mercenary system).

I think Mr Gecko's definition is a good one (see above).

 

[N Rothschild]

In the extreme, any price analysis is TA/using an indicator. Thus, every trader thus uses TA (apart from ODDT and his mercenary system).

I think Mr Gecko's definition is a good one (see above).

see my edit

 

[meanreversion]

see my edit

Do you trade oats? Have you seen that chart recently? Insane.

 

[N Rothschild]

thats nothing, check coffee. and no i dont trade either. few weeks i liked coffee long but didnt take the trade as didnt see enough upside potential...doh! lol

 

[scose-no-doubt]

based on the result of calculations on time series

What?! How?!

 

[bevok]

Yes Coffee was an absolute delight! Loser after loser, then ka-ching!! Hard to lock a lot in though due to the volatility, I keep expecting it to plummit. I get the feeling though that thats what a lot of participants are expecting, selling into the big moves, then getting absolutely punished and not being able to move size to get out.

 

[meanreversion]

Aside from "more buyers than sellers", what happend in coffee and oats?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1511063020100615

 

[cr6196]

from what i've heard coffee was down to long term declining supply due to low prices ($40 was around the low in '01), i remember hearing that a lot of coffee growers actually starting growing cocaine instead. So that has led to declining supply and rising prices for the past 5 years or so. The thing with coffee is that increasing supply takes a long time as a new plant takes something like 5 or 7 years to grow fully.

 

[meanreversion]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1511063020100615

Good article, thanks.

By the way, what's the origin of your username.. everytime I see it I think "scouse".. is there any connection?

 

[N Rothschild]

out of interest, what with the wealth destruction in the US, the unemployment and general lack of money supply and most people cant afford to pay for their mortgages.. how are people going to pay for these 20,000$ per ounce gold bars?

Baring in mind most gold bugs arguments are that its the "people" who will buy gold, not financial institutions.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Good article, thanks.

By the way, what's the origin of your username.. everytime I see it I think "scouse".. is there any connection?

Scose is a noun.

Thats all i'm willing to divulge at this point in time.

 

[MrGecko]

I think it means he's proud to be Scottish. I read it as "Scorze-noo-doot"

 

[Black Swan]

out of interest, what with the wealth destruction in the US, the unemployment and general lack of money supply and most people cant afford to pay for their mortgages.. how are people going to pay for these 20,000$ per ounce gold bars?

Baring in mind most gold bugs arguments are that its the "people" who will buy gold, not financial institutions.

I stopped buying physical when it breached $1,000...for the first time a couple of years back, iirc March/April 2008... wtf would anyone buy at this price? Other than short term speccing obviously.. As someone once said "Never give a sucker an even chance.." plenty of mugs/dumb money buying IMHO...
Can't wait for the ponzi investment gold schemes to come out of the wood work, folks have been buying virtual gold in vaults that are empty/already been robbed by the banks...LOL..

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Phonetically it's "sk-ow-ss" to rhyme with prose. or those. toes. maybe chose. h0es. or even clothes.
Should actually be Sco's-no-doubt. But I wanted to create a little mystery you see. I live a very exiting life like that.

 

[N Rothschild]

gold is the dumbest money there is, just look at the average mindest of the gold bug, complete moron. they going to get burnt so bad, and when they do it will be because of "manipulaiton"

amateur traders see it as there chance to get wealthy for when the world collapses, plain and simple. and guess what, there is no free ride for joe schmoe! remember housing

 

[meanreversion]

So NR, I'm not quite clear on your view. Are you bullish or bearish on gold?

 

[N Rothschild]

bearish.. how could you possibly get a bullish vibe from what ive been saying lol

 

[meanreversion]

Ha, I guess your sarcasmometer is broken?