GOLD & SILVER - next move?

After all that main influence is not this story it is cold weather in US after seasonable warm spell and the new leg lower in the dollar/monopoly money.
Nobody in their right mind can believe at this stage that Us is stupid enough to go along with this or indeed that congress would ever pass such an incredibly stupid idea.
 
I am still very long gold. Have been for 3 years, only built on the position.

This is contrary to my usual statistical trades. It is unusual that I get religion about an asset but I really am a gold bug.

;-)
 
TWI said:
Nobody in their right mind can believe at this stage that Us is stupid enough to go along with this or indeed that congress would ever pass such an incredibly stupid idea.


stranger things have happened!! ;)
 
TWI said:
After all that main influence is not this story it is cold weather in US after seasonable warm spell and the new leg lower in the dollar/monopoly money.
Nobody in their right mind can believe at this stage that Us is stupid enough to go along with this or indeed that congress would ever pass such an incredibly stupid idea.

This piece of news is going to grow as the time approaches end of Feb / March time. I'm still not sure markets have given it sufficient weighting but some people already in the know. In fact you can virtually time it from the point gold hit 600$.

Here is my perspective on the developments. Sorry it's a little off this thread but it may provide an indication to the gravity of the developments which I feel probably most TAs ignore. Acting on the news very early on - buying Gold when it touched $608 has made me very happy.


I'm not sure of an out right attack by any party but what I suspect we will see increasing provocation by the US against Iran. They have already arrested 5/6 of their diplomats again.

I suspect we will see a chase and border pursuit (as indicated by madam Rice) crossing into Iran and a shoot up will follow.

The hope or expectation is that Iran will respond with disproportionate force to save the honour / face of the country and leaders. At least this will be what the US will be hoping for in turn to justify US's disproportionate offensive - full bombing of Irans strategic sites.

HOWEVER, THE BUSH AMDINISTRATION ARE MAKING A COLLOSSAL BIG MISTAKE AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME IN IRAQ.

1. No WMD found in Iraq
2. No Nuclear weopans found
3. Switch to democracry not thought through as Iraq 54% Shia (currently support US) support Iran

4. Attack on Iran will mean Iran and Iraq (+Sunnis & Shias) will unite (despite having thought wars against each other) and turn on US.

5. US friendly allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, other Arab countries will have difficulty controlling their popullations even if their puppet governments support the US.

6. Russia and China will support Iran...

7. US is playing stupid games as invading Afghanistan was a ploy to open up a rear guard action to sorround and attack Iran. (Some people still think and blieve Osama working for CIA - I don't but I can see how one may think that way).

8. The Chineese and Russians played out Asian joint military training exercises couple of years ago. They recognise US is trying to claim Afghanistan and Uzbekistan & the rich mineral resources of the Caucases.

9. Does anybody believe Chineese shooting down one of their satellites was a per chance test run. Timing is coincidental perfection for sending signals.

10. Does anybody remember the bombing of Chineese embassy in Belgrade because the Americans had an old map.

11. China gets large part of it's oil from Iran. America is playing games to disrupt China's economy.

12. It was US who recommended Iran build a Nuclear deterrent when it was a puppet US regime under the shah.

13. If the US does go to war in an effort to disrupt Iran all hell will brake loose in the Middle East and will spill to rest of the World.

I sincerely hope common sense will prevail and the US Administration will see the light.

14. TO TOP IT ALL OFF. WE HAVE A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO THAT IS IMMINNENT UPON US ALL. THE USA IS THE BIGGEST POLLUTER 25%+ WITH ONLY 3% OF THE WORLD POPULLATION AND AS WELL AS GIVING ALL KINDS OF TAX BRAKES TO BIG OIL INDUSTRIES IT GOES TO WAR AGAINST OTHER COUNTRIES TO STEAL MORE OIL FROM THEM.

15. Iraq puppet parliament have signed a deal allowing foreign (US & UK) companies to invest in their oil industry and keep 70% of their profits after costs.

THIS IS THE BIGGEST THREAT FACING MAN KIND AND MOTHER EARTH - THE USA IS THE ONLY COUNTRY NOT TO SIGN THE KYOTA AGREEMENT.

To put it all in perspective I think blowing up the middle east and making it radio active for the next 500 years + will save the mother earth and the rest of mankind.

We are at the cusp of a new era. The end is nigh...
 
"The end is nigh...".....damn, and I just got back from Majestic with a few cases ;)
 
chump said:
"The end is nigh...".....damn, and I just got back from Majestic with a few cases ;)

I've been reading your contributions about property management and building expertees and I think they should send you to Iraq to rebuild the country. I'm sure you'll do a much better job than the yanks. ;)
 
I am rather hoping that the saner minority across the pond have finally reached the end of their tether with the Bush loon and that they will now finally hang him.
He is an embarrasment to what has been a great country and he has created a global instability that leading to America losing a disturbing amount of influence in the World. Should we survive it, his presidency will go down as an historical disaster.
Anybody that when asked who their favourite philosipher is replies "Jesus" while at the same time pumping up the defence budget is probably schitzophrenic, on a cocktail of very volatile chemicals and should be in a padded cell rather than on the Murdoch A list spouting endless corporate directed gibberish at the idiot voters.
 
TWI said:
I am rather hoping that the saner minority across the pond have finally reached the end of their tether with the Bush loon and that they will now finally hang him.
He is an embarrasment to what has been a great country and he has created a global instability that leading to America losing a disturbing amount of influence in the World. Should we survive it, his presidency will go down as an historical disaster.
Anybody that when asked who their favourite philosipher is replies "Jesus" while at the same time pumping up the defence budget is probably schitzophrenic, on a cocktail of very volatile chemicals and should be in a padded cell rather than on the Murdoch A list spouting endless corporate directed gibberish at the idiot voters.



Interesting write up on China $ & Gold

Enjoy...
 
China have been chattering on about this for a long time but they have a big problem doing it. Quite tough for them to start moving out of US debt and $ without causing problems for their own markets. I am sure the move will be well managed. It certainly keeps me bullish the base commodities such as Copper, Aluminium, Zinc, Oil and the precious complex but my view on the dollar has been negative for so long now it is hard to see it accelerate from here more a slow painful decline with a few blips along the way.
 
TWI said:
China have been chattering on about this for a long time but they have a big problem doing it. Quite tough for them to start moving out of US debt and $ without causing problems for their own markets. I am sure the move will be well managed. It certainly keeps me bullish the base commodities such as Copper, Aluminium, Zinc, Oil and the precious complex but my view on the dollar has been negative for so long now it is hard to see it accelerate from here more a slow painful decline with a few blips along the way.

Well the crystal charts have shown positive breach of the long awaited 640 level and now testing 650. Given how 640 was difficult to brake it will become major support level and I'm raising my stop loss to 635.

Given all the news it's only a matter of time before 700 is within target.

The China India talks I'm sure will touch regional issues, energy and the oncoming war as well as economic cooperation.

Apparently the Americans are increasing the pallet storage capacity of the Incirlik airbase in Turkey from 260 to 500 units. I don't know what size these pallets are but there is heavy activity around there.

We can almost with certainty pencil in some form of confrontation with Iran.

Contra to all this we have some good stats from UK GDP growth and like in Japan interest rates seem to have peaked and expectation of inflation is to fall in latter part of this year. Hence, economic activity is also likely to boost oil and gold.

I would agree that these prices / trends likely to continue.
 
Atilla said:
If the Gold 640 support level holds we may be approaching another rebound...

US have just announced they will shoot Iranians suspected of interfering in Iraq affairs. This is a escallation from arresting / detaining and releasing them.

Buy Gold 643.5 at the mo I'd say. Stop loss at 635... Good luck.

Gold now at 647. :D Fantastic the rally continues.

I think we may pass the 650 and beyond now as that last hour the bounce was very strong.

As I keep drumming the escallation of confrontation will drive gold and probably oil higher.
 
and some may say...sell @ 644 to play 635, Stopp loss @ 647, since dollar is gaining temporally strenght vs euro & gbp....˛& the democrats are presuring the bush to sit down and do the talk with Iran & Siria, as well the dailly and weekly chart for gbp/usd and eur/usd indicate more pressure to downside ...good luck
 
de123 said:
and some may say...sell @ 644 to play 635, Stopp loss @ 647, since dollar is gaining temporally strenght vs euro & gbp....˛& the democrats are presuring the bush to sit down and do the talk with Iran & Siria, as well the dailly and weekly chart for gbp/usd and eur/usd indicate more pressure to downside ...good luck

I do agree De123.

I did touch on the Democrats talking sense into the Bush administration or a military coup in the US as a possible downside risk before in this thread. Yes any global stabilisation will hit gold in a downward way.

However, economic growth looks strong too so that should cushion any blow to commodities.

Until then though, I'd be bullish still. Buy the dips as some woud say. I think your 647 may just have been blown away. :-0
 
Atilla said:
I do agree De123.

I did touch on the Democrats talking sense into the Bush administration or a military coup in the US as a possible downside risk before in this thread. Yes any global stabilisation will hit gold in a downward way.

However, economic growth looks strong too so that should cushion any blow to commodities.

Until then though, I'd be bullish still. Buy the dips as some woud say. I think your 647 may just have been blown away. :-0


More war talk from Uncle Bush and the Mullahs developing intercontinental missiles and launching sattelites.

Brace your selves for gold to take off.

This is helping the EURUSD too. I think $ will not be worth much soon. The Iranians will not be a soft touch. I'm not sure US knows what they are doing.

I do hope we pull our boys out of that hell hole to be soon. Where is our Blair?
 
Gold is not strong due to an imminent attack on Iran, the smart money knows this is simple bullsh*t that amongst other things is being used to try and keep crude from going into the toilet bowl because below $50 there are some banks in trouble on their options books. Nobody objects to a bit of Sabre rattling at Iran.
Gold support is coming from mines buyign back hedges and the cesation of central bank sales. Fundamentals are good for precious supply demand without the bank sales is in deficit and Asian banks look to be buyers this year and the dollar will continue to go in the sh*t can.
Go with the flow, ride it but beware the sharp corrections.
 
One other thing, Bush is a moron and cheney is uncle fester. Those boys are just about finished, it took a long time but America is starting to see the insanity of what they have done.
 
TWI said:
Gold is not strong due to an imminent attack on Iran, the smart money knows this is simple bullsh*t that amongst other things is being used to try and keep crude from going into the toilet bowl because below $50 there are some banks in trouble on their options books. Nobody objects to a bit of Sabre rattling at Iran.
Gold support is coming from mines buyign back hedges and the cesation of central bank sales. Fundamentals are good for precious supply demand without the bank sales is in deficit and Asian banks look to be buyers this year and the dollar will continue to go in the sh*t can.
Go with the flow, ride it but beware the sharp corrections.

Gold is a hedge against the $. $ I agree will not be worth much if US don't correct twin defecits or war mongering.

If the war doesn't go according to Uncle Bushes view of the World they'll be spending a 'little' more than $500 bn.

Where is that money going to come from. The $ will weaken further and International investors and central banks will switch assets into the Euro and Gold.

Why are mines buying back hedges? What reason?

I don't understand the ceasation of central bank sales? Stoping sales of what?

It's the economics behind the war that will drive the price of Gold up. Gold and Oil always go up in times of war and uncertainty. :!: :?: :!:
 
Mines buying back hedges because they know they will sell it higher as they see the fundamentals as supportive.
Central banks have been selling gold for years, cashing in and buying bonds. That is slowing down and Asian banks are starting to accumulate.
 
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