Gold calls.Long term -medium term and intraday calls in gold is here !.

[Mr.J-Arthur]

S.Rock-I do believe 880 is possible.

After gold hit over $1000/oz it corrected/reversed down to $850, so we may fall anywhere in between $850-900/oz. Gold didn't hit 1k on the last "run", it only touched 990...

These large corrections are part of the uptrend-that's what the guys and gals at Kitco forums believe.
If more banks start to close and the news portrays a scary picture gold will rise.
I'm hearing rumors that the commodity funds are liquidating their gold...it's a rumor. I'm not sure if it's true, but a drop of $30 could be due to commodity funds.

Poor Yvij-u gonna be crying to the bank bro. You still reading the forums?

 

[alnthmsn]

Anyone sensing a possible 880 $ this week ? Starting from wednesday. Suggestion please, with your technical logic.

I think 880 a definite possibility within the next fortnight. Weekly chart now showing a clear evening star candle pattern - a strong reversal signal and CCI is overbought and turning down. Latest COT report also shows commercial traders ( "Big Dogs") are heavily short.
All in all looking for a medium term short trade with stop loss above the candle at around 990. Will wait for clear signal on daily chart before entering. Could of course be wrong if oil rebounds but oil charts also looking weak so my emphasis next week is to enter on the short side

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Wow, great analysis alnthmsn.

COT reports are every friday right? Are those important? I never read them. I better start!
I'll be trading from the short side too

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

now wait,

according to the COT report on this site COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - July 25, 2008
137 traders are short and 251 traders are long TOTAL including large speculators and commercial.
Small spec. are mainly long as well.

Oh I see. alnthmsn, you are basing your opinion off of commercial traders being short? Why not the total amount of short vs long? overall people are long. In the commercial sector people are short..why are the large spec. not short also then?

So short selling bias for next week isn't really warranted unless the trend suggests gold is falling. Wait and watch for a monday morning drop, but otherwise becareful with short selling.

EDIT: I see now! There seems to be less traders with short positions total, but the position of each short trader is heavier than the long positions.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Monday's us closing somewhere around 940 $.Tuesday it can test highs till 955 $.

A fall from 990-917 $.A fall of 73 $.50 % of 73 is 36.5 $.So gold upper turn around point is 917+36.5=953.5 $


Wednesday crude inventory and stuffs.If prices cross above 965 $ its all way up.

Crude has to give a closing above 125 $ for any possible 13x $.For the moment crude is targeting 117 $.


Anyways,i will be prepared for any fall or up movement.Just wanna catch the rollacoaster ride

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Yes. I could see it go up too despite the shorting, but really I'm just going to sit and wait...be flexible to trade long or short side and catch that roller coaster

Oil will need to go up for gold to go up and I hope Euro can gain what it lost which would help gold.
I can't possibly be bullish if oil isn't bullish. Going long is justified when everything indicates "go for it".

If it's choppy then I back off. I'm actually really excited about Monday, just to see what will happen. Monday mornings are known for dumping in gold so it will just be fun to see if gold makes new lows or breaks resistance.

Traders have the best "job" around Everyday is new and surprising and certainly challenging.
I always expect the market to surprise me.

 

[welshandy1]

TA is great, but watch out for those negative Crude news stories, as they always have the biggest impact on... well... pretty much everything else really!

In Nigeria, we have some more kidnappings of expat oil workers in recent days, and in Iran, we have Ahmadinejad announcing that that they now have their 6000 centrifuges for atomic production. Neither is actually really bad news in itself (apart from the workers kidnapped of course ), but the frequency of these reports could keep things bubbling along nicely.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Don't hold any long term buy position in gold or crude.Crude targeting 110 $ within a months end.Sell on every up rally.

 

[welshandy1]

Do you think Gold will open higher or lower tomorrow?

 

[alnthmsn]

now wait,

according to the COT report on this site COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - July 25, 2008
137 traders are short and 251 traders are long TOTAL including large speculators and commercial.
Small spec. are mainly long as well.

Oh I see. alnthmsn, you are basing your opinion off of commercial traders being short? Why not the total amount of short vs long? overall people are long. In the commercial sector people are short..why are the large spec. not short also then?

So short selling bias for next week isn't really warranted unless the trend suggests gold is falling. Wait and watch for a monday morning drop, but otherwise becareful with short selling.

EDIT: I see now! There seems to be less traders with short positions total, but the position of each short trader is heavier than the long positions.

I subscribe to a site COMMITMENT OF TRADERS that compares commercials against spec traders. I work on the view put forward by Peter Bain and others that it is the commercials who are the "big dogs" and where they go with futures contracts spot price inevitably follows. Doesnt always work out but is reasonably consistent in telegraphing price movement. You are able to review the last two years or so on the above site for testing - only a couple of dollars a a month to subscribe. When the comms are extremely short ( zero on the index) then is the time to get on board and vice versa ( extreme long equals 100 )Often there is a "lag" of several weeks. At the moment gold is 9 - 88 showing the comms are very short and the specs long though ideally the ratio is 0 - 100. As I say not foolproof and should be used with other TA and fundamental analysis. Hope this is useful.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Do you think Gold will open higher or lower tomorrow?

i will be sitting back and enjoying the show. Might buy if it dips into 922-925 range.Thats it.

Oh,tomorrow being monday, i will have to prepare for my college classes.Assignments,tests and stuffs.So might peek in and out.

 

[sujithsstorock]

My point of view regarding 'data'. I go by what charts and all the TA related to it indicate.

Whenever there has happened anything unexpected to price movement,on reanalysis i always figured out that,the unexpected move was also 'expected' by all.Just my mistake in reading the charts.


Whenever prices are sitting upon a support or resistance,wheather that support is broken or not? This depends upon the data that comes at the moment.So when price is at a determing juncture,i check for data.

More over,any data that comes Has its affect on hourly basis only.Very few have there impact for long.Oh,i find only copper who keeps on reacting for strikes and stuff for too long.For gold and others,so many news comes in an hour that,one data indicates to be positive while other one gives a negative scenario.And thus poor trader gets trapped in this circle of data.


990 $ was the highest for this contract.By experience i see that,usually a high & low made in one running contract won't be cut till the contract is expired>>thus trapping many buyers or sellers who might take huge loss or delivery.

 

[yvij]

Hi guys still here and alive! LOL S Rock your funny man; i'll think I will go to Nigeria and bust up all the oil pipes so that my gold position will rally! Ha ha.

I did some calculations and hoping gold will reach $956 so that I can exit.

So stressed as I'm flying of to New York this Thursday so may not be able to look after my position.

I may try to slim down so that I can hold up to $880 if need be.

Come on GOLD!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Yviji-I would gladly help you look after your position, lol just transfer it into my account and I will trade for you! Just kidding

But I am hoping you make a freekin' fortune...or atleast not lose a fortune!

 

[yvij]

ha ha yes yes I should have not chased GOLD. I did have a stratrgy in placve but got greedy!

Crude stochastics are slowly starting to turn up and also Gold. Hopeping for last burst so I can get out.

Man you guys trade Gold well. I usually trade the dow with a system I use but looked at Gold for more long term investment.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Well, we all learn that lesson at sometime in our careers. I'm starting to realize my old mistakes and it takes a long time to establish good habits.

ANY watchers on gold? Totally flat, but I'm ready for a monday morning dump if it happens.
880 is a possibility and I'm going to act as a seller around 935-940
I might even try to short @ 929, but I'm going to hold off.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Sell gold at 930 $.Stoploss 932 $.Target 928-926-923 $

do in minimum quantity.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Exit short at break even or put stoploss at 931 $

 

[welshandy1]

There we go. Nigerian militants attack the pieplines, more tough talking from Iran, Crude goes up 100 points this morning, Gold goes up, and I cash in $3

Now to short

 

[Wideboy]

I think if 935 holds this morning were looking at a down day to at least 917 and then onwards to 883.
I'm currently short from 929