Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout

[Newtron Bomb]

Time based break outs can be fraught with perils.. I did try to point this out along with some other points over there but it was not well received and the folks on that thread continue to plug away at it.

One of the things that kept it going and looking good backtesting was the financial melt down when we were seeing regular daily 3c 4c 5c and more movements and it was really hard not to make any money with any type of strategy

If you are looking at this method I would strongly recommend that you factor in a range of movement as a filter. A simple rule would be Price done more thane 65% daily ATR. No trade.

LAst weeks GBP break out comments should be a good enough and recent example of what price does when ATR done. Thats right, most commonly price stops

while we're in wind-dwon mode until the New Year, I thought you might want to look at alternative breakouts.

over on FF, there is the 7am-9am "Big Dog" breakout.
1400-1600 USD Breakout Strategy. (Around US OPEN)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103682

if anyone wants to do any analysis, it may give traders 2 bites of the cherry of a day.
ie, 2 lots of 20 pips perhaps?

 

[Newtron Bomb]

I think a member here did some research on this think his name was jtrader. was all excited about it spent a lot of time and money getting some software coded only for it to go belly up

If your looking for a variation of this timed break out then think about a reversal bar like a hammer doji shooting star etc. around these times which will give you a better edge especially when combnined with the ATR rule

 

[bedsit]

If you don't like following charts all they long, observe GBPUSD between 12.00pm and 2.15pm. Notice high and low for that period. When price breaks out of range, buy it or sell it depending on which way is going. Put stop loss of 20pips and target of 20pips. Check it at 10pm and see what happened.
Trade small amounts at first and if happy after some time increase it. Be prepared for loss and think how much you can lose if it doesn't go your way. You are always going for most probable outcome when trading.
Wishing you lot of pips (after some time - it's long time system and you will not become millioner overnight)

 

[foredog]

Not really a breakout to the downside today more a small slip. Hope you all kept out of trouble.

 

[Claudia123]

Happy New Year all .. quick 20 points there Foredog.

 

[FormulaOneFan]

I watched it from the sidelines to see whether breakout is back on its feet and indeed it was. I hope to trade breakout from tomorrow.

 

[HawkTrader]

I watched it from the sidelines to see whether breakout is back on its feet and indeed it was. I hope to trade breakout from tomorrow.

We don't really know, we never know. As these people who sell systems say; "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results".

 

[Claudia123]

Good post Hawk. Formula - imo you have to stick to whatever system you choose and take the good with the bad. Sitting on the sidelines don't buy me new shoes lol. Good luck.

 

[bedsit]

Well worth getting up early. Later on I'll try 20/20 at 14:15

 

[klw]

Hi Claudia -- would you have ignored all the H1 candle spikes this morning as there were quite a few ? If so entry at 1.6086 approx ?


Great thread by the way and thanks for sharing.


klw .............

 

[Claudia123]

Hi KLW - thanks for the kind words. Yeah 6086 was very good entry. I actually got in at 6082 because I was slow!! But following the system you got it right. Yes I ignore all the spikes.

 

[ez0770]

Happy New Year all .. quick 20 points there Foredog.

Happy New Year and good start of the year it is: in short @ 16086.6, out @ 16066.6

 

[Claudia123]

That was hard work !! Got there in the end though + 20

 

[Crawsthorne]

lol yes a very good idea !!!

Claudia please can I ask why you did not take the break up at 7am?

Thanks Charles

 

[bedsit]

What about the first break up? Have you ignored it?

 

[Tullibody]

Yes be interested to hear about that. I was in the cot so..

 

[Claudia123]

Claudia please can I ask why you did not take the break up at 7am?

Thanks Charles

Didn't get a signal. i went short at 8.02 GMT at 078.0. My 6 am bar closed at 151.6 the 1 am at 079.8 which triggered the sell for me.

 

[Claudia123]

What about the firs break up? Have you ignored it?

I missed that for some reason - just looking at the chart right now. Must have gone just on 7 am ? I would have traded that.

 

[bedsit]

What to do? That's trading – one day you win, one day you lose. May work tomorrow.

 

[Tenapenny]

I put a bit of breathing space in the entries, usually 5-10 pips, so +25 pips for me this morning.