Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout

[foredog]

Why is it that someone is pretty much trading live on here and regularly making a profit and yet everyone is trying to pick holes or improve it?

If you like it trade it, if you don't then don't. If you do trade it and it suddenly makes 5 losses in a row then stop and re-assess.

I think part of the reason that this has a high win rate is that you are selling at the first new low of the UK/Europe session so this is usually a decent thrust as the first orders of the day hit, rather than trying to pick direction out of the chop.

 

[ez0770]

That's interesting bedsit. I took profit on Thursday +21.3. Didn't trade Friday as no valid signal as I remember (unless it was later in the morning)

Indeed following the rules of the strategy would have resulted in a profitable trade on thursday. I had the same p&l as you did Claudia on that day

 

[neil]

Why is it that someone is pretty much trading live on here and regularly making a profit and yet everyone is trying to pick holes or improve it?

If you like it trade it, if you don't then don't. If you do trade it and it suddenly makes 5 losses in a row then stop and re-assess.

I think part of the reason that this has a high win rate is that you are selling at the first new low of the UK/Europe session so this is usually a decent thrust as the first orders of the day hit, rather than trying to pick direction out of the chop.

But thats the way with many on this site Foredog: They have to experiment and tinker with backtesting instead of keeping it simple and carrying out realtime trades. You soon realise if things are not working out in real time without the necessity of pontificating over pointless backtesting. Just watch this thread - those that stick to the original plan will continue to make money whilst others will merely watch, backtest then post their pointless opinions on data stretching back to 2001.

 

[gamma]

Hi everyone,
We must be the most unfriendly, sour , mean minded , grouchy bunch of people that you come across when the market is closed.
Who else talks work on a saturday afternoon.
I try my damn est to stay away from the computer at the weekends but its a losing battle.:innocent:

Good points made there by neil and foredog.
part of the reason that people cannot just follow the system is due to its simpilicity.
I am deliberating about adding this thread to the best thread list, as it would be a good thread for newbies and traders, who have lost their way, to see that the best way to trade is using simple methods.

 

[gamma]

Gamma -if you want to add now or in future I have no objections. I got loads of free stuff of this forum why shouldn't others. Help with the questions is all I ask lol

Thanks Claudia,
What is great about it is, it takes away the mystery associated trading, No bollanger bands and cci systems to master.
So many traders think one needs to get a degree in t.a before one can be successful.which is just not true,I have been trading 10 years and still don't know my macd from my atr.

i am hoping that the thread will go the way BBMAC's thread is going, people come on read it and ask constructive questions if needed, rather than debating past performance etc, although there should not be no need to ask too many questions as its so simple.

 

[sherbertpips]

Hello all, I have been trading test for 8 weeks and going live this coming week. I'm going to start on a breakout strategy. I noticed this trend myself, I am a complete novice at trading but been programming many years, and have just written an EA to grab +/- 20pips depending which way we breakout at 7am UK. I thought maybe it would be best just to get up early enough to do this manually, but the idea of writing a bit of code to do this for me makes me SMILE! I am using M15 chart. Having done backtest by eye (don't know how to do automaticly yet anyway) it seems to have worked 17 out of the last 21 trading days.

I give it a couple of pips leeway at first in case it's a false breakout. Happy to lose those from the 20, as surely you just factor this in with your lot size according to how much you want to gain? Please correct me if I'm wrong on this and need a lesson!

Haven't put a trailing stop on it yet, but would be nice if I can work out how, as I see several times there could have been at least 40pips available. Still just really basic, coarse stuff but it seems to work about 80% of the time.

THEN a friend showed me this site, in particular Claudia's system. I still haven't found what your rules are, but I hear its on a hourly chart not M15 which I'm using. And also I heard people are using the open and close high and lows rather than the maximum high and lows. Is that right? And are you looking from midnight GMT or 1am. And until 6am or 7am? Any chance you could direct me to your information please?!

Also, BIG question (like I said, I'm a novice). I'm with Alpari. If my EA enters a stoploss of say 1.50000 and the price suddenly bombs down in a matter of seconds from 1.50200 to 1.40000, would my SL be honoured or could I face total wipeout?

Thanks!

 

[Claudia123]

Hello all, I have been trading test for 8 weeks and going live this coming week. I'm going to start on a breakout strategy. I noticed this trend myself, I am a complete novice at trading but been programming many years, and have just written an EA to grab +/- 20pips depending which way we breakout at 7am UK. I thought maybe it would be best just to get up early enough to do this manually, but the idea of writing a bit of code to do this for me makes me SMILE! I am using M15 chart. Having done backtest by eye (don't know how to do automaticly yet anyway) it seems to have worked 17 out of the last 21 trading days.

I give it a couple of pips leeway at first in case it's a false breakout. Happy to lose those from the 20, as surely you just factor this in with your lot size according to how much you want to gain? Please correct me if I'm wrong on this and need a lesson!

Haven't put a trailing stop on it yet, but would be nice if I can work out how, as I see several times there could have been at least 40pips available. Still just really basic, coarse stuff but it seems to work about 80% of the time.

THEN a friend showed me this site, in particular Claudia's system. I still haven't found what your rules are, but I hear its on a hourly chart not M15 which I'm using. And also I heard people are using the open and close high and lows rather than the maximum high and lows. Is that right? And are you looking from midnight GMT or 1am. And until 6am or 7am? Any chance you could direct me to your information please?!

Also, BIG question (like I said, I'm a novice). I'm with Alpari. If my EA enters a stoploss of say 1.50000 and the price suddenly bombs down in a matter of seconds from 1.50200 to 1.40000, would my SL be honoured or could I face total wipeout?

Thanks!

Hi

1 hour time frame
open and close high and lows
1 am bar to 6 am bar (which closes at 7 am GMT)

Not traded live with Alpari so can't comment but I suspect I know the answer that you will get!

Edit: Out of interest how many of the losing days in your back test were Fridays?

 

[mpat89]

So for IGIndex orders do you use 1.5 points above the buy level and 1.5 points below the sell level to account for spread, set to expire at 9.30am? Do you use set limit orders or do you close manually?

 

[foredog]

With IG the spread is 3 so if the low of the candle is 16366.5 then the actual low is 16365 so you would want to enter below this price when it makes a new low.

I usually put my orders 3 points below the low on the chart so i would have my order at 16363 (i usually round down)

 

[mpat89]

Alright, cheers. I thought this strategy doesn't use lows but open/closes of each candle within the breakout timeframe..? Do you trade it differently?

 

[Claudia123]

Alright, cheers. I thought this strategy doesn't use lows but open/closes of each candle within the breakout timeframe..? Do you trade it differently?

Correct about the open/closes of each candle for entry signal.

What's happening as the thread has developed is that some guys are taking the system and adapting it (maybe only very very slightly) to suit their own trading style.

Personally once the entry signal is triggered I am in the market. Foredog waits a few pips as do others in attempt to avoid false breakouts.

I used to use the high / lows as entry points (and its probably me causing this confusion). Using the open / close of the candles obviously gets into the market that bit earlier.

 

[FormulaOneFan]

It looks like another non-trading day today. Very strong resistance at 1.6320 range. Since tuesday last week it tested that level and was unable to break it. 100+ pips for it to break the range if it goes short. What do you all think?

 

[HawkTrader]

It's still not 7am yet... TBH I think it will break but possibly too late for me.

Wait and see, trade if it does.

PS the general area from about 1.6400 down to about 1.6150 is a real chop area IMO.

 

[foredog]

Short at 16249, break of the low of 6am candle. Took +15 when price stalled at 16230 level. Maybe could've stayed in and waited as did drop another 10-15 but quite happy to bank +15 rather than sut and watch it retrace to Breakeven.

 

[HawkTrader]

Nah, you can't expect a setup everyday. It's a pretty consistent method but now we're coming into Christmas so expect a lot of family arguements and big players confusion in the markets.

 

[FormulaOneFan]

First time that I've tried this strategy, thought I'd be back in bed by now.

Tenapenny, yes. It usually works like that but not all days are same. This is the best and simple strategy and I will use it as long as I can.

 

[romzilla]

Went short after the breakout of 6am candle. Took 13pips. Sorry for not being discipline to go with the strategy!

P.S. Signed with IG markets, thank you Claudia

 

[FormulaOneFan]

Went short after the breakout of 6am candle. Took 13pips. Sorry for not being discipline to go with the strategy!

P.S. Signed with IG markets, thank you Claudia

Trading the break of just 6am candle worked on friday and today. well done.

 

[FormulaOneFan]

cable seems to have lost its steam now. It is going up and down +/- 15 pips. If nothing happens in another 15 mins I will call it a day.

 

[Claudia123]

Just took a break out on EUR/USD to relieve the boredom