GBP/USD 123's

[Pipmaster1]

Well this is how the trade is setting up so far. Price didn't do much, but has started dropping a little since the London Open. This a snapshot of the 3 hour chart with basic fib retrace measurement drawn on the big move up last month. Also showing my limits and exit plan.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Looks like price is starting to go in the right direction.

 

[Pipmaster1]

The short trade in the GU is shaping up nicely. The first limit was hit and I moved my stop down a few pips. Now there is no risk on the table and I was able to lock in 7.4% profit.

Silver is down -$0.27 showing the dollar gaining against silver as well.

At this point the sellers need to close under the 144 Fib EX and hopefully the momentum will continue.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Hello Traders--Happy Monday!

Well like I said last night I had 7.4% locked in. I was surprised to see price come back some 80 pips since last night. It look like the 55 channel was going to hold and price had already failed there once at the 3:00 candle. The 7:00 candle look like it could be the buyers 2nd push and failure at the top of the 55 channel. There was also an older barrier you can see on the 30 min chart as well as 61.8% fin line that could have stopped price.

I decided to get in again with 7 lots and a 30 pips stop. I admittedly rushed it a little, I entered at 7:43 and should have waited for the close the hour candle. I will say that at the time of my entry Silver was dropping pretty hard and was down -$0.69. The dollar looked like it was gaining on everything.

But oh well, that entry had a 2% risk on it, so having 7.4% locked in makes the worst case for this trade making 5.4% of profit. The potencial profit on this right now if price were to hit all my limits if 53.8%!!

A choice of making 5.4% or 53.8% is not a horrible situation.

Since the GU has pushed like it has after I got in and now Silver is only down -$0.18, I would guess that the GU is going to keep going up and hit my stops...

Forexkunta, what are your thoughts??

 

[forexkunta]

Hey Pips,
This move down has looked awfully corrective to me, so I have tried to stay out of it. EW has published some forcasts that call for a move up to the top of a triangle trendline in the area of E. That would in fact take out your stops. We will see how it plays out, but I am betting on it moving up in the short term, before a major drop. Time will certainly tell for sure, but caution is warranted.

 

[Pipmaster1]

This trade is still unfolding and looking like it may continue in my direction. I still have 5.4% profit locked in as a worst case scenario. Notice the barrier on the 30 min chart that price came back to to find resistance again, as well as coming back up into the 55 channel on the 60 min chart and not being able to push through it. Hopefully price will start trending down.

Silver is down -$0.66, Gold is down -$27.10 and Oil is down -$1.00/barrel, so the dollar is gaining the the Pound,the precious metals and energy. This is good news if the GU is to continue to slide.

Latest snapshots.

 

[forexkunta]

I think you will be ok on this trade. This move down should be wave c, and it just got started so you should see it push down to around 1.6000 before a turn up. Just a thought, but you just can't beat a 5% gain, no matter the outcome. I currently have about 5% locked in on E/U, G/J, and E/J, all 4H trades, with about 30% showing. My account is nowhere as large as yours, so I am trying to grow it as fast as I can. I am also looking at much lower prices on the three, so should do extremely well from here. :clap:

 

[Pipmaster1]

Thats good to hear, always nice to hear it from another trader perspective. You certainly are much better at seeing the waves than I am. It was you that turned me onto the 55 channel and once I added it to the 123's everything change for the better!

Yes I agree that there is nothing wrong with a 5% gain. When you can locked it in and continually add to your position and still have a positive worst case scenario you get the best of both worlds.

I'll be sure to keep my eye on the 1.6000 level, if price struggles there I may tighten up my stop really tight, don't think I want to ride out another 100 pip swing against me, and that is only 45 pips from my last limit so not a big deal.

 

[forexkunta]

Well, I am glad it helped. I personally use the 21 channel for my trading, and it has helped me. This concept was suggested in a training publication that Elliott Wave put out. Most people want to try to get the whole move, which I have proved is totally impossible. However, 50-70% is possible, and that is all a trader needs to be profitable beyond belief. I have come to the conclusion that I am a longer term trader, ie..4H, do to time constraints on my day job, so have moved to that recently. I really like to see gains of 200-500 pips as well, and you just have a hard time doing that on less than the 4H time frame.
It has taken me 3 years and several thousand $'s to figure that out. I just have to mind my method from here on out and I should make that back over time. Good luck on this trade.

Thats good to hear, always nice to hear it from another trader perspective. You certainly are much better at seeing the waves than I am. It was you that turned me onto the 55 channel and once I added it to the 123's everything change for the better!

Yes I agree that there is nothing wrong with a 5% gain. When you can locked it in and continually add to your position and still have a positive worst case scenario you get the best of both worlds.

I'll be sure to keep my eye on the 1.6000 level, if price struggles there I may tighten up my stop really tight, don't think I want to ride out another 100 pip swing against me, and that is only 45 pips from my last limit so not a big deal.

 

[Pipmaster1]

I agree trying to get the whole move not possible and more a rookie mistake I think.

Price just retraced again to the top of the 55 channel and I was able to move my stops on the already open positions down and lock in over 8% profit. Since the price action looked like it was going to fail and not push through the 55 channel I went short again with another 8 lots position. With all my open positions now sharing a stop price of 1.6191.

Even after adding the extra position because my stop is lower I have 5.75% locked in! This will be my last addition to this trade as I am running low on margin. But still worst case is 5.75%! :clap:

 

[forexkunta]

I just closed these 3 trades for a total of 495 pips, 39% gain. :clap:

I think you will be ok on this trade. This move down should be wave c, and it just got started so you should see it push down to around 1.6000 before a turn up. Just a thought, but you just can't beat a 5% gain, no matter the outcome. I currently have about 5% locked in on E/U, G/J, and E/J, all 4H trades, with about 30% showing. My account is nowhere as large as yours, so I am trying to grow it as fast as I can. I am also looking at much lower prices on the three, so should do extremely well from here. :clap:

 

[Pipmaster1]

I just closed these 3 trades for a total of 495 pips, 39% gain. :clap:

Very nicely done! I am still in 4 open positions at the moment. And he 55 channel is holding so far. I did move my stop down to 1.6168, locking in 14.62%!

Either way not a bad start for May!

 

[Pipmaster1]

This trade was stopped out at 1.6168, with 14.62%! Can't complain about that.

 

[Pipmaster1]

I couldn't let the buyers have all the fun! I bought on the bounce of the EMA Channel. Risking only 2% on this trade.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Hey I wanted to share this Daily chart of Silver. I have been waiting for months for silver to drop. This sure look bearish, I'd really like to get in between $23-$25, not sure how far it'll drop.

 

[Pipmaster1]

I went short in the GU late last night. Sorry for the delay on the pic. Posted pictures of real time snapshots of when I got in and then some pictures of a few minutes ago.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Just an update!

 

[Pipmaster1]

Well that didn't work out like I wanted...

 

[Pipmaster1]

A little lesson in trading psychology! This open trade is far from over and could certainly drop and stop me out. My last trade was a short position that was stopped out to the exact pip, I posted the picture earlier this week. The current trade I am still in is a long trade that has missed my stop by one pip.

The lesson, neither trade mean anything. It is just the nature of trading. It does not mean that my method is good or bad, a success or failure. It just is. Albeit sometimes hard to swallow, a good lesson all the same.

 

[Pipmaster1]

Just went long the GU. This is a small risk position and the set-up is not yet the high probability but hoping to get a head start on the move up. Notice the price level on the daily chart, looks like this could be a serious barrier there. The limit at this point is just there to have one, it will likely be adjusted as/if price starts trending up.