Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies
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Jason Rogers
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Indeed, and the latest SSI readings show that despite the spike in the EUR/USD exchange rate after today's ECB rate decision, the retail crowd has flipped to being net short the pair. Below is the new panel view we added on DailyFX.com to display the SSI data.
An SSI value of -1.8956 for EUR/USD means that 65% of retail traders are short the pair. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, that's a strong signal that EUR/USD can go even higher.
Jason Rogers
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"Goldilocks" US NFPs Keep EUR/USD Steady; Fed Rate Hike a "Lock"
Currency strategist Christopher Vecchio said the following in his article today on DailyFX.com: "Mark your calendar for December 16: markets are honing in for the first Federal Reserve rate hike in two weeks after the November US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
"The data, which was truly a ‘Goldilocks’ print – not too hot, not too cold – confirmed recent labor market trends that should keep the Federal Reserve confident enough that the US economy is continuing to heal."
Currency strategist Christopher Vecchio said the following in his article today on DailyFX.com: "Mark your calendar for December 16: markets are honing in for the first Federal Reserve rate hike in two weeks after the November US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
"The data, which was truly a ‘Goldilocks’ print – not too hot, not too cold – confirmed recent labor market trends that should keep the Federal Reserve confident enough that the US economy is continuing to heal."
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EUR/USD Bull-Flag Take Shape While Retail FX Remains Net-Short
You can see real-time SSI on thenew Sentiment page at DailyFX.com
You can see real-time SSI on thenew Sentiment page at DailyFX.com
options-george
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Hi Jason,
following our exchange re GBPAUD & GBPNZD recently. Looking at my GBPNZD 5M chart this morning, I see that the high-low range of the 5M candle on the RBNZ rate announcement was a around 490 pips.
I cannot recall whether this is typical of the volatility in that pair at the time of RBNZ announcements. My understanding is that the FXCM bid-ask are a pure derivative of the prices from all of FXCM's liquidity providers.
Could you comment as to whether generally speaking the volatility in prices on news releases has increased over recent months/years? I have heard the idea that increases in post-news volatility may be due to the a reduction in prop trading done by banks, thus sucking liquidity from the markets. It would be great if you could comment about that.
By the way, do let me know if I am not meant to be asking these types of questions on this thread!
[As a sidenote, I have been using FXCM for many years. One of the big reasons for it is the responsiveness of the staff and my ability to get hold of someone on the telephone if I have a question.]
following our exchange re GBPAUD & GBPNZD recently. Looking at my GBPNZD 5M chart this morning, I see that the high-low range of the 5M candle on the RBNZ rate announcement was a around 490 pips.
I cannot recall whether this is typical of the volatility in that pair at the time of RBNZ announcements. My understanding is that the FXCM bid-ask are a pure derivative of the prices from all of FXCM's liquidity providers.
Could you comment as to whether generally speaking the volatility in prices on news releases has increased over recent months/years? I have heard the idea that increases in post-news volatility may be due to the a reduction in prop trading done by banks, thus sucking liquidity from the markets. It would be great if you could comment about that.
By the way, do let me know if I am not meant to be asking these types of questions on this thread!
[As a sidenote, I have been using FXCM for many years. One of the big reasons for it is the responsiveness of the staff and my ability to get hold of someone on the telephone if I have a question.]
Jason Rogers
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Forex Sentiment Warns that US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower
A major turn in retail FX positions warns that the US Dollar may lose further against these major counterparts.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
See real time Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) data on the new retail trader Sentiment page on DailyFX.com
A major turn in retail FX positions warns that the US Dollar may lose further against these major counterparts.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
See real time Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) data on the new retail trader Sentiment page on DailyFX.com
Jason Rogers
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Hi George,
Your questions are more than welcome. Since this particular thread focuses on DailyFX signals and strategies, I've posted my response to your questions in the main FXCM discussion thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-brokers/88834-fxcm-discussion-85.html#post2669376
Please feel free to post your general questions about FXCM in that thread, and post your questions about DailyFX research or general trading ideas in this thread.
Jason Rogers
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Fed Rate Decision Can Ignite Volatility and Upend Well Established Trends
Chief currency strategist John Kicklighter discusses how the upcoming Fed rate decision has the potential to cause big market moves in his article on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Talking Points
Chief currency strategist John Kicklighter discusses how the upcoming Fed rate decision has the potential to cause big market moves in his article on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Talking Points
- Though there is still some doubt, the market consensus now expects the Fed to hike December 16
- Even if a rate hike is realized, the market has priced in far more than what ‘liftoff’ insinuates
- We look at a range of visuals that show why this may be a critical event for the global markets
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Gold Setting the Stage For "Lift-off" Post-FOMC
In his article today on DailyFX.com, market analyst Paul Robinson discusses a couple of different scenarios that could unfold following the FOMC meeting tomorrow:
"While it is widely expected the Fed will raise rates, what is not so clear is the path the Fed will take after embarking on a tightening cycle.
"If the Fed signals an even more gradual pace of rate increases than the market expects, we will likely see an immediate sell-off in the dollar and rise in precious metals."
In his article today on DailyFX.com, market analyst Paul Robinson discusses a couple of different scenarios that could unfold following the FOMC meeting tomorrow:
"While it is widely expected the Fed will raise rates, what is not so clear is the path the Fed will take after embarking on a tightening cycle.
Gold Daily: Aug '15 - Present
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
"If the Fed signals an even more gradual pace of rate increases than the market expects, we will likely see an immediate sell-off in the dollar and rise in precious metals."
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Snapshot of Retail Trader Sentiment Heading into FOMC
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
source: The new Sentiment section on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
source: The new Sentiment section on DailyFX.com
Jason Rogers
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Post-FOMC Sentiment Points to Further US Dollar Strength
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Read quantitative strategist David Rodriguez's full report on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Read quantitative strategist David Rodriguez's full report on DailyFX.com
Jason Rogers
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DailyFX Forecasts for the US Dollar, Gold, Equities, Yen, and Oil in 2016
The forecasts above are all discussed today on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- US Dollar: Greenback Looks in Trouble Heading into New Year
- International Equities: S&P 500, World Equities at Risk of Major Correction
- Gold Price Forecast: Sell-Off May Accelerate as Fed Likely to Hike Rates
- Yen Forecast: Fed Rate Hikes and BoJ Action Points to USD/JPY Gains
- Oil Price Forecast: No End in Sight for Oil Price Declines
The forecasts above are all discussed today on DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Jason Rogers
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JPY Strength Materializing as Global Equities Plummet
Jason Rogers
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Riksbank Intervention Threat Aims to Lift EUR/SEK Prices
Currency strategist Christopher Vecchio discussion the following in his article today on DailyFX.com:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Currency strategist Christopher Vecchio discussion the following in his article today on DailyFX.com:
- Riksbank has been threatening intervention for the past several months.
- Ability to intervene was codified on Monday with this release.
- EUR/SEK move below 9.1000 would greatly raise odds of immediate intervention.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Jason Rogers
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Substantial Shift in Sentiment Post-NFP
The data below are from David Rodriguez's weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) at DailyFX.com:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The data below are from David Rodriguez's weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) at DailyFX.com:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Jason Rogers
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CNH rolls surge as China gets more aggressive in deterring speculation
DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez sent me the following alert this morning:
"overnight rollover charges in the USD/CNH have surged as the PBOC has unofficially made it substantially more expensive to hold CNH-short positions. This is consistent with their preference to defend the CNH against speculation, and theres no question that they're feeling the heat on the surge in the CNH vs CNY spread."
DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez sent me the following alert this morning:
"overnight rollover charges in the USD/CNH have surged as the PBOC has unofficially made it substantially more expensive to hold CNH-short positions. This is consistent with their preference to defend the CNH against speculation, and theres no question that they're feeling the heat on the surge in the CNH vs CNY spread."
image source: Bloomberg
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Jason Rogers
Senior member
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Jason Rogers
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Sentiment Points to Potential Trend Reversal in CAD and Majors
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com
Jason Rogers
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US Dollar on the Verge of a Major Breakdown
Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For David Rodriguez's full report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), visit DailyFX.com
Jason Rogers
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US Dollar Breakdown is the Real Deal - Here’s Why
A major turn in price and forex trader positions warns that the US Dollar will likely continue lower versus the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Gold prices. David Rodriguez explain why in his weekly summary of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFX.com:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
A major turn in price and forex trader positions warns that the US Dollar will likely continue lower versus the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Gold prices. David Rodriguez explain why in his weekly summary of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFX.com:
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
