FX Trading June 11th - 15th

[zuke]

zuke,

how do you cope with rangey Vegas, when you get whippy signals?
thats the one thing that put me off using it.

I never use Vegas for entries unless the trend has been established. Essentially, I use a PSAR strat for entries and then use open/closes above/below tunnel for adding lots.

tbh though, if you are a trend follower you have to accept that you will get whipped from time to time. That's why I spend most of my efforts trying to define the trend or recognising a rangey session (I have a range strat that I use for this)

Vegas works very well on the 4 Hour and only if one waits for open/closes above/below the tunnel as opposed to breaks.

 

[Atilla]

Bageed + 51 covered at 1.9689, might pop up, I'' consider reselling it. Gagging for a cuppa though.

Morning all,

Looking very bearish for cable today after yesterdays down day for indeces.

I have a dreadful feeling this might go all the way down to 1.93 if 1.96 is breached. In fact battle lines are 1.9650 really. Can't see 1.96 doing much as it is a silly number as numbers go. 50 sounds so much more awesome to 96.

I think most people are pondering rate rises and strength of economic activity which surprisingly to me is still very strong. I've heard that China, US, ECB and BoE all considering more rate increases. Pooh bear.

My sentiments changed to the down side until Thursday and Friday when some important stats are released for clear direction.

Still don't believe Fed will raise rates - whilst rest of World will. But not as sure as I was yesterday morning hence I write in small letters

Good trading everyone...

 

[smbtnt]

Finally target hits 9740, taken half out and letting the rest ride to 9790 and beyond, stops moved to 9685.
Majority are still favouring further down and viewing this weeks move as a fib retrace, I am sticking to my longs and revaluate once stops are hit on the trailers.
Ideally looking for shorts around 9800 if pa supports the decision.

Morning all,
Not to happy with timing of this turn, anticipating 9790 yesterday to offload my longs but unfortunately we reversed just short of my target taking out my trailers.

General consensus today is more down after a hefty pullback, the sharpness of yesterdays reversal under 9800 would support this. 1st Target around 9640. However any close on the 4hour above 9760 not good for swing shorts.
Well done to all the shorts today!

 

[Crap Buddist]

mmm still flat.

sometimes think if i should just take trades when price dictates and ignore the news and be less risk averse on that front, other times risk aversion to news spikes-surprises prove the wise move. dunno, i still cant get my head around that for a strategy.

anyway, according to plan, 9690 is the next level for either entry-reverse-range. will wait and see. dont look too convincing for the time being.

bit annoyed, but well, plan would have been on the spot which is the only comfortable part.

News, hmm to be honest I tend to ignore the news, but do allow an extra 25/30 points on the stop. Also, if one does position prior to news release it could be seen as assuming extra risk, but the return could also be greater. (and its warranted because of greater risk assumed)

I think its one of those things that we have to marry to our own risk profile, also perhaps if traders are short term, then I guess they would wait and swing away once the news come out.

I did ask Gammer what his colleagues tended to do in the banks, but no response, quite rightly too. no harm in asking though. But I tend to think they position for it prior. Just a hunch. And im sure some dont, but was trying to gauge a mean of typical actions the big wholsesale boys take on. Lets face it especially with forex being 24 hours, they can just pass the book and exploit price value all times.

 

[jacinto]

well shorted the round number.

yep, thanks CB. its something i always get my mind around. at times, actually i like trading the news when price dictates particular trades, but well, something to consider in the plan.

moving my stop to BE, the followthrough is not very strong , and dont want to be food for shark.

 

[trendie]

missed the Bago signal this morning. (doesnt matter what time I get up, the signal is always the hour prior!)

could have gone short at 1.9716, but bottled it.

anyway, down-trend on the hourlies, looking for pull-backs. (on the 15-mins)

 

[zuke]

missed the Bago signal this morning. (doesnt matter what time I get up, the signal is always the hour prior!)

could have gone short at 1.9716, but bottled it.

anyway, down-trend on the hourlies, looking for pull-backs. (on the 15-mins)

How are you finding the bago Trendie? I start forward testing it, but didnt like the whip on the sub 1H or the lag above that tf. Álso didnt like the fact that you needed to wait for the RSI 21 to cross to confirm the EMA's cross. Way too much lag for me

 

[trendie]

How are you finding the bago Trendie? I start forward testing it, but didnt like the whip on the sub 1H or the lag above that tf. Álso didnt like the fact that you needed to wait for the RSI 21 to cross to confirm the EMA's cross. Way too much lag for me

I am running it on the hourlies.
its slow-ish I agree. I wait for the cross, and then look for fine-tune entries on the 15-mins or so.
I am somewhat lax with the RSI anyway, as I use EMA-24 also.

most MA-X rules are essentially the same, just the cross appears at different places, and give the pull-backs at different points.
at some point the MAs will go out of synch and you get whipped - just the nature of the game.
so I guess its all about just ploughing through.
( I have modified my trade-plan to take partial positions, and look for better prices. )

I still prefer the Stochastics/Jimmer/LBR "pull-back" method over all others.
(same probs, they can get out of synch)

 

[zuke]

Will this damn thing actually get below 9680?!

 

[smbtnt]

yes, only to trap in the shorts before it kicks off and tests resistance ala Dow yesterday!

 

[zuke]

yes, only to trap in the shorts before it kicks off and tests resistance ala Dow yesterday!

thankfully, I was on GBP/CHF all day yesterday so didnt have capacity to trade the Dow. Sounds like it was fun!

 

[jacinto]

well shorted the round number.

yep, thanks CB. its something i always get my mind around. at times, actually i like trading the news when price dictates particular trades, but well, something to consider in the plan.

moving my stop to BE, the followthrough is not very strong , and dont want to be food for shark.

needless to say, i got stopped out for another breakeven trade.

definitely, not my week. the wife, is working from home today. she had a look at my plan, then saw the charts and thought i was having a terrific week. I confessed and said: "well the good news is i havent taken a single loss" then she dug the obvious question....and the bad news? err, no profit.

so, now she has sent me to clean all the stuff CB was going to help with. I need to take a break and wont trade till tomorrow. Im not following my plan and that is not right. good day all

j

 

[zuke]

Just been stopped in SHORT 9724, Stop 9762, TP1 9648

Moved stop to break even and taken 25% of size (2 lots) at 9684 for +40. Now running 6 lots and will scale out 2 more at 9644

 

[smbtnt]

Moved stop to break even and taken 25% of size (2 lots) at 9684 for +40. Now running 6 lots and will scale out 2 more at 9644

well done Zuke, dow was special yesterday, three 100pip intraday swings, can't remember the last time that happened, can you?

 

[jacinto]

anyway, according to plan, 9690 is the next level for either entry-reverse-range. will wait and see. dont look too convincing for the time being.

well, cant believe got that one right. 9690 seems to be either a neckline or the confirmation of a higher low on 4 hour charts using closing prices only (lines).

no, no trading here, just having a look to see how tomorrow's plan will go.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Well if the bears have it, then that prod to mid 1.9730's should be a good short entry. Lets see what happens from here on.

 

[trendie]

Well if the bears have it, then that prod to mid 1.9730's should be a good short entry. Lets see what happens from here on.

thats what I have been musing (having been side-tracked by the lure of Dow-volatility).

for me, it will need to fall back to 1.9711 trigger a short for me!
but then, it is also approaching 4-pm; time for tea.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Just looking at things before cocoa, Looks like upside in the Asian, so wouldnt be surprised to wake up looking buy dips for a test of 1.98. One good prod up above 1.9730/34 ish if that looks funky we're off

 

[jacinto]

Just looking at things before cocoa, Looks like upside in the Asian, so wouldnt be surprised to wake up looking buy dips for a test of 1.98. One good prod up above 1.9730/34 ish if that looks funky we're off

yea, bit of cocoa and my mojo-2 charts + pitchfork + bit of sake point to 9836 to be precise, but if it does it will be a bumpy ride. prefer a visit to 9750 then down to 9720 and take if from there at 8 am

and if i dont follow the plan tomorrow, the wife told me to go to your house and do the cleaning too. lol

 

[jacinto]

morning all,

today the plan is to stay flat. i am unsure of direction, and expect that the market will be most likely news driven today, and would imagine the 1:30 news to be the main course of the day. my preferred directional bias is south, but wont bank on it myself.

my feeling is that it will be a day for mechanical breakout systems.

so taking the day off. there will be more opportunities either PM or tomorrow. keeping an eye open on euryen though.

good day

j