FX Market Tips

[fertonadvisors]

Hi everyone,

these are the daily-based trades that are being held at the moment:

1. SHORT CAD/JPY @ 98.22, stop 99.92, target 94.12
2. SHORT USD/JPY @ 115.85, stop 117.52, target 112.25
3. SHORT USD/JPY @ 114.12,stop 117.12, target 110.05

Best regards

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Oct 19 Market Update

Hi everyone,

interesting action and positive reaction of the major currencies against the dollar at key levels again. The euro rallied over 100 pips from the lows around 1.1870, in what some quickly came to call a double bottom in place. I personally disagree with that view and in my opinion 1.17 and 1.13 are on target for the mid term (months ahead), but I can't preclude any USD sell-off in the short term. All in all, the euro is now trading again below 1.1980 as it proved itself unable to break the strong 1.2025. Cable did the biggest comeback, supported by the BoE minutes release, with an over 200 pip rally off the lows. However, while capped below 1.7725 it remains on a bearish tone. Swissie is unable to break 1.3080 for the moment (thus confirming euro's strong support at 1.1870) while the japanese yen is the weakest currency among the majors and today it almost hit the 116 level against the dollar.

As for the open trades that I have running, they are still working and no changes have been made.

Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Oct 20 Market update

Good technical moves in the european majors against the dollar …. that are not yet followed by the japanese yen. I would have expected the 1.2020 level on euro to hold better than it did, but I think that the selling pressure that once was around that level eitherlowered down to the 1.1980/90 level, which rejected euro’s attempts for the past 2-3 sessions and that again yesterday lookedn unbeatable, or moved to the strong 1.2075/90 area. Logically enough, if sellers lowered or raisedtheir entry points, 1.2020 wasn’t going to be a tough area … and indeed it was not. Therefore, after 1.1980 gave up and seeing a “naked” 1.2020/5 area, longs kept on climbing to hit the next and tough 1.2075/90 area. Just a minor test and a quick reject shows that some good-sized stops are on the area, and that the level is going to provide a fierce battle. If I were to put my 2 cents in the market, which I am watching comfortably as I rest aside of the pair for now, waiting for a clean break either way to get a better-odds trades on the way, I would be a seller around 1.2080-90 without sticking to the trade more than for a fast banking, and a buyer around 1.2020-1.1980, looking for a re-test of that tough 1.2080 level. I would do the same with the pound, ie, going for quick cashing, taking into account that it is facing even tougher levels around 1.7800/7815. The risk-reward ratio opportunities that we can find in pound make of it interesting for short term trades with clear entry levels … and never falling in love with the trades, just hitting-and.running for quick payouts, which should come aound those tough levels.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

New trades Opened

Hi everyone,

just opened 2 new daily-based trades that can be followed in our read-only mode demo account we created for you:

1. SHORT EUR/JPY @ 138.41, stop 140.41, target 135.00
2. SHORT GBP/JPY @ 204.65, stop 207.00, target 200.00 (half the size)

** The other 3 open trads are still working.



Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Update: TRADE CLOSED

Hi everyone,

the trade SHORT CAD/JPY @ 98.22 has been closed at 96.99 for a net result of +123.

** The other 4 trades are still being held.



Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Update: 2 TRADES CLOSED

Hi everyone,

the trades:

1. SHORT EUR/JPY @ 138.41 closed @ 138.21 +20
2. SHORT GBP/JPY @ 204.65, closed @ 204.06 +59/2(half size) = +29.5


** The 2 Usd/Jpy trades still being held.


Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Oct 24 Market Update

There is no doubt that the words coming out from the chinese government in the sense that the Chinese Yuan needs a revaluation, weighted on the USD, which lacked of some momentum to follow-through onto its early gains. However, and as a pure (or almost pure ) technical trader I prefer to concentrate on analyzing the charts rather than trying to fight with the fundamental noise.

On the technical side, the euro made a remarkable comeback from the lows of the session to test a 1.2020 session high, which, again, proved to be too tough at this time and drifted the pair back down to sub 1.20. Since the euro continues in a consolidation mode, in a well-established triangle formation, the whipsaws and yo-yo action are meant to be the name of the game for now, unless either 1.2085 or 1.19 breaks on a daily closing basis, where we should be able to see a real follow-through in terms of price action.

As I have previously posted, my interest remains in the JPY crosses. The sudden JPY weakness, accompanied by words out of the japanese finance minstry that such weakness won't affect the overall economy, makes me think that maybe something is being cooked. But what? Well, I am not a fortune teller, but what I see is a clear disagree-mode between what the "people who control the yen" say and what the technical picture tells me. I will stick to my strategy for the pair, eventually combining it with other pairs, and we'll see what the outcome is.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Trading Update

Hi everyone,

well, the session ended with 3 out of the 5 trades being closed, and only the 2 usd/jpy shorts @ average in the low 115's are being held at the moment.

What I would like to do now is to explain why the other 3 jpy trades were closed after less than 24 hours had elapsed from their opening time.

The reason behind the 3 trade-closing, despite I can consider they have more downside potential, is no other than improving the enty price on the usd/jpy trades. With a net result of +162 for the day, if we divide that in 2 (2 usdjpy trades), that is a 63 pip better entry price on my jpy longs, which will reduce the trades exposure and will make of them less stressful trades (despite on the daily-based trades I try not to exceed a 4:1 leverage per trade), in the current highly-volatile environment.

I just wanted to put a reasoning behind the actions I am posting here, not just naked trade-posting.

Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

2 New Trades Opened

Hi everyone,

I opened 2 new trades in line with my current favoured scenario for trading and redundant with the favourite pairs at the moment for my own trading action:

1. SOLD GBP/JPY @ 205.06 (half the size)
2. SOLD EUR/JPY @ 134.96 (half the size)

*** Still holding the other 2 Usd/Jpy trades.

The reason behind the half-sized trades is to hold some more bullets in the pocket in case a better price is needed to be obtained for the trades.

Best regards,

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Oct 25 Market Update

At last we have seen a clean technical breakout in the currency major pairs, at least when it comes to the eur/usd and gbp/usd pairs. The have both broken their respective tough barriers at 1.2080 and 1.7820, and are comfortably trading above them at the moment. Their momentum should increase (maybe with some correction before) and the 1.2160 and 1.7915 are the next targets on the upside .... those targets will be valid while they trade above 1.2020/5 and 1.7820/7770 respectively.

As for my own trading activity, I am focusing at the moment in the JPY crosses, specially the currency against the majors. I have re-opened the continental front, shorting both the euro and pound against the JPY and in short I am planning to do the same with the swiss franc. I know what some of you may think at this point (too much trading on the same side), but through disciplined money management and concrete entry/exit levels, the situation is not going to be a stressful one. If indeed had to be a stressful one, I would not have even traded the previous ones on the same pairs. Anyway, one can decide only to stick to one or two currency pairs instead of trading them all, if that makes him feel more comfortable .. in the end, it all depends on one's risk tolerance/aversion and emotional control.

I will keep you updated on how this is progressing.

David.

 

[fertonadvisors]

1 New Trade Opened

Hi everyone,

just completed the poker of aces in my JPY trading scenario:


1. SHORT CHF/JPY @ 90.15 (half the size).


David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Oct 26 Market Update

Well, yet another yo-yo day in the foreign exchange markets, with USD supporters not ready to give-up on the short term that easy. The Euro managed to marginally break above the tough 1.2120, but hey, quick comeback and back below the other tough 1.2080 level, so ... everything staying the same, like yesterday adn today had never existed ....... same for cable, which has in the 1.7820 a key level that is not giving up at the moment, though yesterday the break of it was a clean one (it hit around 1.7860) but gains quickly turned into losses and since the very first minute of european trading the pair was in trouble and back down below the 1.78 level .... intermediate support is found at 1.2050/25 in euro and 1.7725 in cable, so we'll see what happens ...

The yen is a different story. It now is something personal, between himself and I (lol). Yesterday's closing price around 115 even was a good close for my account, and I honestly was expecting for 114,40 or around to hit today as closing price. Not only did the pair manage to stay above the 115 evel, but also now is trading so close to the highs of 115.97 that I presume a new spike to hit 116.30 is a probability that I should take seriously into account for now. That is not a problem, I have enough bullets for showing the yen who is the boss here , but the fact is that it's nasty behaviour against the technical side of analysis is somewhat annoying to me. Not by the fact of the usd/jpy pair itself, but also for the crosses, where eurjpy is leading the way up (I am contemplating the 140.25 print scenario as a real possibility now), followed by the almighty volatile gbp/jpy, trading above the 205.35 level so easily that is a little bit confusing me for now. Other jpy crosses to monitor very very very closely are chfjpy and specially CADjpy, this one presenting an excellent short from current levels, with an unbeatable risk/reward ratio. Needless to say that I am holding my trades for now.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

New Trades Opened

Hi everyone,


more bullets in the market for my current JPY trading:

1 and 2. SHORT EUR/JPY @ 139.96 and 140.17 (half the size both, important to know)

3. SHORT GBP/JPY @ 205.88

** View remains unchanged and so I keep on doing a disciplined and systematic trading with the crosses.


David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Trades Closed And New Opened

Hi everyone,

today was a nice trading day, good market activity and especially in the JPY crosses that I am monitoring at the moment.

First, the list of closed trades:

1. CLOSED ALL EUR/JPY positions @ 139.47 (1.5 lots (100k size) in place) for a net result of 27 x 1.5 = +40.5 net pips

2. CLOSED ALL GBP/JPY positions @ 205.17 (1 lot in place) for a net result of +30 pips

3. CLOSED CHF/JPY position (0.5 lot) @ 90.25 for a net result of -10 / 2 = -5 pips

So the net daily result for today was +65 pips, which, apart from increasing my equity, have helped me in what was the pure intention when I opened the trades, to IMPROVE my usd/jpy short entry price. All crosses will go lower, but I am not trading them on a trade-by-trade basis, but only for helping the usd/jpy shorts which is the name of my game at the moment.

NEW TRADE OPENED: SHORT USD/JPY (half the size or 0.5 lot) @ 115.67.

That makes my portfolio on a daily basis (daily-chart based trades)consisting of: 2.5 x SHORT USD/JPY @ avg 115.20 approx naked entry price (not counting profits on other crosses).

**Also remember that I favour cad/jpy shorts for those who may want to give it a shot, target 95.

Trading Results Recap
-Pips since inception (sep 13): +2,326 + 65 = +2,391

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

update. 1/11/2005

Hi everyone,

opened 3 new half-sized bullets in usd/jpy shorts @ 115.85, 116.28, 116.40, for a total position in my portfolio of:

4 x usd/jpy shorts @ 115.58 average (4:1 leverage now)


I have 2 more half-sized bullets in case they are needed (5:1 maximum leverage), but I am definitely happy with my current entry price, and I am not planning any more bullets at this very moment.


David

 

[fertonadvisors]

nov 1 market update

Hi everyone,

another consolidation day in the euro, modestly having tried to break the 1.1970/50 area, but the "disappointment" of only 25bp rate hike by the fed has allowed the pair to rally to the 1.2020 level, where it stands at the moment. Among the majors (I won't consider the jpy since I am tlaking about it below) the main loser has been GBP, which has broken good support 1.7725 and looks pretty vulnerable at the moment, trading around 1.7640, but still above 1.7590. I still find a lot of noise in this narrowing-range trading at the moment, and so I am just sticking to my usd/jpy trades at the moment, which form the only fx currencies of my portfolio at the moment.

I have spent 4 out of the 5 bullets that I have for trading any particular cross (5:1 is the maximum leverage I use) and despite this disgusting liquidative market on the usd/jpy (stops are being hit session after session since yet we are to see the turning point and thus a top in place) I am pretty confident with my position, excellent entry level on a daily basis (around 115.6) at th moment and still have one more bullet to go for higher effective cost entry price if needed (my view is that I won't need it). The confirmation of a correctin being in place would be a daily close below 115.95.

Happy trading to everyone.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 6 market update

As expected, friday's data was used for the market to position itself in one or other direction. The lack of follow-through in the euro and gbp's moves after data was released forced the 2 to surrender to the dollar, which in the euro case, has hit new lows for 2005.

Surprisingly enough, the usd/chf has not hit (yet) new highs, but that can happen soon, so better watch the action now, we cans ee wild moves as we move close to key levels. usd/cad another very interesting one to keep an eye on, can be very explosive if it trades above 1.19.

However, I still view in a mid-term scenario a correction in the usd/jpy, the only currency being held in my portfolio. Obviously now I am looking the retracement as a means to get out dry of the situation, but the conviction of it happening remains in full force.

Tomorrow is another day.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 6 trading update

HI everyone,

I opened and closed a short in gbp/jpy on friday @ 207.70 closed at 207 for +70. This is a means to get a better effective price in my usd/jpy portfolio at the moment, which I am still holding at an average price of around 116 at the moment.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

Nov 7-8 Market Update

A bit of a relief for lots of traders who were calmly waiting for the narrow ranges to break in the 3 european-area currencies against the USD. Good also to see that the market did not play with static and round numbers like good'old 1.1755 (2004 low) and rather hunted some stops there and went further to test the 1.17. Well, thing is that the US economic recovery is weighing on $$$ shorts, because as a collateral effect we are seeing either rate differential widening (euro, swiss, yen, cad...) or narrowing (aud, gbp, nzd ...) and that indeed is the main excuse big players are using now for justifying their carry trades favouring the greenback.

Well, I would also add to that that if one looks at the COT report, he'll see that traders were positioning themselves for a higher euro, and you know ... what the mass does .. usually is not the most reliable signal .... and so the other way was taken.

As for me, I am sticking to my JPY crusade, not wasting any more bullets with it than the ones I have now, will stick to the position (around 116 in) and focus in joining the other currency markets if I get the appropiate signals. The JPY has gained some ground against the recommended currencies like cad, eur and gbp but I still find puzzling the resilience to move against the USD. We'll see, but I always plan my trades and trade my plans so things won't be different this time.

Tomorrow is another day. Surely a better day.

David

 

[fertonadvisors]

TRADING Update

Hi everyone,

Short Usd/jpy still the market in my portfolio at the moment with average entry around 116.

Anyway, now I have some propsective signals in other markets so I will maybe have more action soon.

Tomorrow is another day. Surely a better one.

David