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I continue to watch gold not only as a barometer for imminent FX and equity moves but also just as a pure play by either buying the futures or an ETF like GLD.
FX Analysis: Casting A Wide Net
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Aspen Trading Group
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Aspen Trading Group
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Not looking good for the bulls here thus far.....
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Hey Traders - I did a webinar with FX Street yesterday where I discussed the current market environment - a possible trade set-up in EUR/AUD as well as our trade selection process. Click the link below to view the webinar - it will take you to FX Street's web page:
Watch Webinar
Watch Webinar
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Traders, whether you trade FX, equities or futures, the S&P 500 is a key driver that knowledgeable traders track closely.
With that said, despite S&P weakness, we may very well be approaching a key support/turning point. The implication for long positions in FX, stocks and futures will be impacted.
With that said, despite S&P weakness, we may very well be approaching a key support/turning point. The implication for long positions in FX, stocks and futures will be impacted.
Aspen Trading Group
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Aspen Trading Group
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At the FX & Options Expo in September I sat down with Tim Bourquin to discuss the various components of the trading approach at Aspen Trading Group:
You Can Never Have Enough Perspective
How to Play QE3 with Forex
Commodities to Be Excited About
You Can Never Have Enough Perspective
How to Play QE3 with Forex
Commodities to Be Excited About
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CNBC 10/25/2012 - Aspen's Todd Gordon discusses President Obama's impact on the US dollar and crude oil during his first term
Aspen Trading
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This is a IMA (inter-market analysis) % change overlay chart (see below) of Gold, AUDUSD, USDJPY, NOKUSD, EURUSD, and S&P futures since November 4th. There is a clear disconnect / breakdown of the normal direct correlations between commodities, FX, and equities we are used to seeing and trading. Two important observations:
1) Risk FX- across the board- is NOT breaking down with the falling stock markets
2) Gold is NOT only NOT breaking down with this fall in stocks, it's rallying.
This tells us there is a very important theme running through the global FX market originating from the US. In light of our massive fiscal issues including our looming debt ceiling and fiscal cliff, the world is NOT treating the USD as a safe haven currency at this point. That's why it is so hard to be short AUDUSD and even EURUSD (with all that's going on in Greece) with a Dow that falls 200+ points in a single session.
Global FX traders are telling us they will NOT buy the US dollar as a safe haven currency because the escape from our massive fiscal issues will most certainly be inflationary in nature,,, and they are buying gold right to prove it. There are many stories making the rounds that China is buying gold to hedge the Yuan, but there is no way that story is big enough to counter this sustained sell-off in stocks citing the prior direct relationship off stocks and gold. There is something more here...and it's major red flag that's being waved over the greenback.
1) Risk FX- across the board- is NOT breaking down with the falling stock markets
2) Gold is NOT only NOT breaking down with this fall in stocks, it's rallying.
This tells us there is a very important theme running through the global FX market originating from the US. In light of our massive fiscal issues including our looming debt ceiling and fiscal cliff, the world is NOT treating the USD as a safe haven currency at this point. That's why it is so hard to be short AUDUSD and even EURUSD (with all that's going on in Greece) with a Dow that falls 200+ points in a single session.
Global FX traders are telling us they will NOT buy the US dollar as a safe haven currency because the escape from our massive fiscal issues will most certainly be inflationary in nature,,, and they are buying gold right to prove it. There are many stories making the rounds that China is buying gold to hedge the Yuan, but there is no way that story is big enough to counter this sustained sell-off in stocks citing the prior direct relationship off stocks and gold. There is something more here...and it's major red flag that's being waved over the greenback.
