red line. Notice as it broke down, it never managed to recapture the previous range till now.
edit: the downward channel still takes precedence, if you played within the channel, its telling you would have made money...betting short..But you can only short it at the top edge of the channel. The other aspect is, as shorts build up on that edge, the market will realize it needs to wipe those out, and runs for those stops.
and thats what it did, people shorted it, but it broke above...and then quickly came back down...but still adhered to the channel.
edit: the downward channel still takes precedence, if you played within the channel, its telling you would have made money...betting short..But you can only short it at the top edge of the channel. The other aspect is, as shorts build up on that edge, the market will realize it needs to wipe those out, and runs for those stops.
and thats what it did, people shorted it, but it broke above...and then quickly came back down...but still adhered to the channel.
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n00b7r4d3r
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im not sure what information i should draw from this
EDIT lol you edited the post just before i posted
durable goods is out this week, lets see how it behaves with durable goods, but since positions are weighted dollar short, I would anticipate some large players might remove dollar short positions as FOMC nears.
they will used durable goods to run some stops quickly to the downside, if they get a chance, and then quickly run back up.
edit: it probably will shoot below 9640...probably close to 9600 .. then quickly ramp back up to top edge of channel.
they will used durable goods to run some stops quickly to the downside, if they get a chance, and then quickly run back up.
edit: it probably will shoot below 9640...probably close to 9600 .. then quickly ramp back up to top edge of channel.
n00b7r4d3r
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thanks for the info; i will try again perhaps tomorrow. I believe you are more familiar with usd/jpy i will try to do an analysis of that next time.
hope this helps, basically you try to get a probability profile of direction, and if you can avoid try to see points in price on the chart that proves your probability assertion more correct then not.
no problem, they don't call it th loonie for nothing...
no problem, they don't call it th loonie for nothing...
n00b7r4d3r
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one of my flaws from when i was trading was that i overtraded; i would look for oportunity till i found it and i think that this is probably one of my biggest problems. Would you say that this would have been a good time to just stay away and not look for something that probably isint there?
yeah when you start out, most of the time should be spent observing the charts in real time. Develop a anticipatory feel for what the price is lible to do next, and if it didn't ask yourself why...and then keep refining it. It takes time, don't over trade. Look for the 'red boxes' where the world is ending type psychology, those are easy money days.
don't use too much leverage when you start out.. and only risk capital you can afford to loose. It takes a minimum of 5 years.
don't use too much leverage when you start out.. and only risk capital you can afford to loose. It takes a minimum of 5 years.
n00b7r4d3r
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when you say 5 years how much screen time do you mean per day. I have no problem watching trading for hours (i find it entertaining if you can believe that) but i am time starved with having to go to work durring market hours and at night my time is consumed by trying to learn C++ and write a bot to do backtesting.
you will know when you get to that point, it varies, but you can only do what your life will let you.
n00b7r4d3r
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sorry had to fiddle with one of the laptops....USDJPY, I'm biased...it trades with ES...has a upward bias with equities, the recent trouble in credit markets, it acts as a barometer of confidence, so it should meander here...but once the equity market starts taking off up, the pair will track it.
a FED rate cut is expected, and could be priced into the pair, but I anticipate a touch down into the 113 handle or even 112.90, based on the reaction post FOMC next week, it could track ES up.
a FED rate cut is expected, and could be priced into the pair, but I anticipate a touch down into the 113 handle or even 112.90, based on the reaction post FOMC next week, it could track ES up.
you need to educate yourself to the point where trades pop out with minimal effort, so its best not to trade, when you dont see it.
n00b7r4d3r
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This is something that does kinda pop out at me (altho it is something that you yourself mentioned might happen). I would feel alright about selling , but am not going to, should the price break above the downtrend line and get up to about the 115.60 area. There is a widely anticipated interest rate statment next week so that could quickly change the situation depending on what happens.
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The momentum from the FED cut to a certain degree migh already be priced in, so on the cut, it might drop down, but risk increases tremendously that the positions are removed post cut, I'm generally biased, on the usdjpy pair secondary to strong fundamental aspects and parties and vested interests, whatever discount is in the pair, it will have a short temporal existence, as confidence regains in equity markets, the pair will move up with them. I take a multi year approach with it.
124-110.
Most of the time historically it spends above 115, and it makes short spurts below only to come back up. I look at pips in terms of hundreds of pips, so if my upside reward is possibly 1000 pips but downside is perceived to be at most 400.
n00b7r4d3r
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you are sure the fed will cut rates?
I don't have to make a prediction, the markets already do it, in terms of FED Funds futures, and bond markets, and FX markets, equities.
So its best to work inline with what the markets are already predicting, since the summation of far more intelligent people and research is represented in price adjustments in the various macro markets.
