FTSE100 July 2004

[tips]

Well, I use it to tell me the overall trend........i.e if the market is moving on top then overall I would call the market on an uptrend, it also depends where the MA is pointing up/down...besides that I think it does work as a very good support/resistace level if you are into position trading ? Have a look at a 1year daily chart and set the MA to 200 you'll get to see its importance.

How would you look at the market in the longer term ?

 

[bracke]

I left a short - net at 4365 - open from last Thursday morning and went away for a few days with a very long stop on. Bearish view thoroughly vidicated although I covered too early this am.

It depends upon your time-frame. Over the next week or so I expect fairly minor intra-day rallies with maybe a couple of reasonably positive days offering worthwhile v quick long opportunities. Can't get away from the view that what we have been experiencing over the past couple of months has been a distribution top though, with the market heading considerably lower over the next 2-4 weeks. The analysis I read from the US (with the very odd credible exception) continues to be uniformly scary. It does not seem to me that there is any mood for a soar-away resumption of bullish sentiment in the forseeable future.

I guess I'm a right old Jeremiah.

You made a profit on your trade thats the main thing.
I would not argue with your view. Reporting in the US has commenced with an ok from General Electric but disappointment from Intel further results will determine the US direction and we follow.

Mr Bush will be desperate to keep things on an up untill after the election in November so it will be interesting to see what action he takes to keep things going until then, after that it may be a case of 'look out below'.
EDIT I see Finirama has a similar view on the US.
Regards

bracke

bracke

 

[Glenn]

"any ideas ..."
Something else to consider:-
Options expiry Friday.
Big boys may shift the market to where they want it to be at 10:30 am.
Probably only a temporary move if it happens.

Glenn

 

[Finirama]

Tips,

Yep, i see the imoprtance, i personally use the 100EMA

 

[Finirama]

Thats me closing half of my long...let the other half run at B/E

 

[Hooya]

"a short - net at 4365 - open from last Thursday morning and went away for a few days with a very long stop on. Bearish view thoroughly vidicated although I covered too early this am."

not sure it was thoroughly vindicated though A long last week at 65 would have resulted in nearly the same profit on Monday morning so I guess it depends which goggles you have on bullish or bearish? But still good trading.

Bracke are you enjoying the newletters? It's will have the supplement about the diamond top today.

 

[Finirama]

undefinedundefinedundefinedHello Hooya,

H r u?

 

[Gaffs1964]

Got a long for some silly reason. hoping to get back closer to the open to minimise the loss, as my stop hadn't been triggered yet. I'm a bit confused why, if the dj's dropped the ftse is moving back to the open? - we're we expectiing the dow to lose (not loose) heavily today??

 

[bracke]

Hooya

Nice to see you posting

I read the Newsletter with interest ,keep it going. Diamond tops I'm not so sure about, I'll see what you have to say

Regards

bracke

 

[Finirama]

Gaff,

Its a classic information shock...everybody is expecting it to go down, but it goes up..did the FTSE not give a clue to this...if expectation was to go further down from the open, wouldn't the FTSE been closer to the low...closed my S&P long from 108.1 at 111.1

 

[bracke]

Got a long for some silly reason. hoping to get back closer to the open to minimise the loss, as my stop hadn't been triggered yet. I'm a bit confused why, if the dj's dropped the ftse is moving back to the open? - we're we expectiing the dow to lose (not loose) heavily today??

Two thoughts
1 ftse likes to close its gaps and didn't it gap down this morning ?

2 markets often do the opposite of what you think just to confuse you ! Remember there are people manipulating the market to their advantage not yours.

Regards

bracke

 

[Finirama]

2 hits it right on the head....bit premature on my exit there, should have held for the gap close... no matter

 

[Gaffs1964]

Points mean prizes etc.....bird in the hand and all that. If I close for a profit I'm happy whatever it is.
Bit like chess, It's not so much the winning, but the not losing thats important!

 

[Finirama]

Totally,

though losing is acceptable.............if you learn something from it

 

[bracke]

Talking of gaps, one of my favourite topics.
It is interesting to look at the 5 day chart ( yahoo do one ) and look at the opening gaps and the filling of them .

Regards

bracke

 

[Gaffs1964]

Have you got a link for them there Gaps?

Yes indeed, always learning!

 

[bracke]

Have you got a link for them there Gaps?

Yes indeed, always learning!

Gap link - www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/gaps.htm

Regards

bracke

 

[Gaffs1964]

I thank you

 

[bracke]

I thank you

My pleasure. May your gaps always be filled.

Regards

bracke

 

[Gaffs1964]

and you scalping be forever itch free!