FTSE 100 - May

[Sharkfin]

In response to Bracke's post on Fibs, as a newbie, I've read a lot of theories recently and can't help thinking there's an awful lot of backfitting of systems. But, as Mully said (or how I interpreted what he said) markets are made up of people - so if people follow systems, then those systems are there to be exploited. Retracements, support, resistance, pivot points are all human phenomena - again, there to be exploited.
I bet a computer wouldn't trade the same way as a human. [I'm waiting for you all to tell me I'm wrong!]

 

[Sharkfin]

Can I just clarify one other thing? How do a group of people lure another into [false/unfavourable] positions in the market? Are we talking about massive trading houses? Quis custodiet - in this case, who are the lurers and who the lured?

 

[bracke]

bonsai/mully

Can you direct me to info on 'smoothed rsi' please

Regards

bracke

 

[Hooya]

sharkfin imo if a you look back over your charts and ever time macd crosses up the mrket goes up does it matter if its self fullfilling or not? its about finding trades that work a greater % of the time than not and finding trades that yield a greater % than they lose. For me I like indicators as they a representaion of price movement but they also filter out alot of the noise. Obviously some traders find the indicaotrs more noisey than just watching price action.

 

[Finirama]

I think Fibs are not consistent enough for them to be used for trading. I only tend to only use RSI to confirm my opinion of price action.

 

[mully]

Bracke,

I'm not your man on indicators (as I hope I have alluded to in numerous posts), let alone "smoothed RSI".

Anyway I am a bit of a rough man .

Talk to traders like Hooya etc.

 

[bracke]

mully
Thank you

Hooya
Can you enlighten me about smoothed rsi please

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

Sharfin,

Try one of these:


1) One person's risk is another person's opportunity.

2) One of the funny things about the stockmarket is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.

3) Financial markets are extraordinary because while traders/investors agree on price they disagree on value.

 

[mully]

I have been looking for a quotation to sum up my simple, uncluttered approach. I think the following quotation from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator will suffice:

"You watch the market with one object: to determine the direction- that is the price tendency. Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance."

 

[bracke]

I am being snowed under by emails from trade2win informing me that there has been a reply to a thread to which I have contributed.

I have unsubscribed from the thread but when I post a message on the thread it starts up again! How do I stop the emails from a thread whilst still posting on that thread.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

FTSE100 D4F chart

It appears that there was a consistent seller at the 4425 level.

It repulsed the FTSE 100 4 times.

 

[bonsai]

Can I just clarify one other thing? How do a group of people lure another into [false/unfavourable] positions in the market? Are we talking about massive trading houses? Quis custodiet - in this case, who are the lurers and who the lured?

In more ways than you can probably imagine and too many to list or detail

just remember, you are under-capitalised and they are not.

this is not a friendly business.

 

[bonsai]

patience , bracke ?
I'm not always on line. I have other things to do. Like tying trout flies.
lol


Smoothed RSI
One of the problems,and there are many, with RSI is that it is quite jerky and can be difficult to interpret.
So, simply smooth it
Instead of using each tick to do the calculations, use an average instead.
It needs to be an average that sticks close to price obviously as you dont want too much delay built in.

This thread has been going for 12 months and I have posted plenty of examples for you to look at .

I also use a smoothed ROC for position trading.

Alexander Elder covers it reasonably well in -"How to trade successfully for a Living"

And if youre interested in double smoothing try anything by William Blau
(he has managed to eliminate the inherent delay)

 

[KJH]

FTSE Tues 11/05

Hi,
A 'newbie' whom has been lurking so I thought.....
Well a pictures says a 1000 words....
EOD chart. A little Fib...Some trend-lines... a little RSI...
Most importantly, to me at least, is PRICE
My bit of analysis for you to comment on...
Note the pink lines on swing 05/03 H -- 24/03 L range+ 275
Now look at the 23/04 H. This range objective = 4327 approx.
Now check out the swing 30/04 L to 05/05 H Range = 84 points approx.
I'm looking for the strength of the inevitable bounce to be 84 points or less if this thing is going to go into a bear trend. Note, the swing low of 30/04 -- blue arrow is major resistance in my books(4490 approx -4500).
It is also within 10 points of an 84 equal range retrace SHOULD yesterday have been the low.
Speaking of yesterdays range, large, closing on the low--should consolidate that move today before marching on, in whatever direction. Also, IF yesterday is a swing low, 50% ret is 4484 approx, this again is within striking distance of the major swing low resistance mentioned above..
Another item, not on the chart, is yesterdays low was 161.8% price extension of the 4601 high -4490 low projected from the 05/05 swing high of 4574
I suspect 1SMA on a 5min chart would be flat now and ready to turn up...
Well, that went on longer than I intended....

Comments/criticisms/suggestions?
Thanks
KJH

 

[KJH]

Now I have to figure out how to attach the chart....!
( I'm a computer retard...)
Did this work?
KJH

 

[bonsai]

hi, KJH - aussie ?

the problem with Sharky's new software is that you cant see the commentary at the same time as the chart

so if its a long commentary, its a bit difficult to follow.

 

[KJH]

Hi bonsai,
4th Generation aussie, originally English and no, not convict stock !
Point taken with the text. I've got multiple monitors so I didn't think about viewing the chart whilst reading the blurb...
kjh

 

[bonsai]

if its short and snappy, you can overlay your commentary on the chart .

or if you code it directly , then you can get it on the same screen

 

[bonsai]

for elliott lovers, we may have bottomed or be very close to it.

we bottomed yesterday in the 1/2 area of previous 3rd

on the other hand .............................

 

[mully]

I see FTSE100 stopped at 4425 for the fifth time, first thing, on D4F.


Now if we can get past that level.....